• 경영과정보연구
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• 제38권4호
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• pp.79-93
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• 2019

본 연구는 VPIN(volume synchronized probability of informed trading, 거래량 기반 정보거래확률)의 KOSPI200과 KOSPI200 선물에 대한 설명력과 예측력을 분석하였다. 실증분석결과 발견된 내용은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 동일시차의 회귀분석결과 VPIN의 수준이 높은 경우 KOSPI200의 수익률과 변동성이 높게 나타났다. 둘째, VPIN 측정 전후의 KOSPI200 수익률과 KOSPI200 선물의 수익률은 VPIN과 양(+)의 관계를 보였으며, VPIN을 측정한 시점 이후 KOSPI200 누적수익률에 약 10분까지 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다, 그리고 KOSPI200 선물의 누적수익률은 약 15분까지 양(+)의 값을 보였다. 마지막으로 10분위로 구분한 포트폴리오별 결과, VPIN의 수준이 높은 포트폴리오는 KOSPI200수익률과 KOSPI200 선물수익률이 높게 관찰되고 있는 점을 발견하였으며, 이러한 결과는 거래전략 지표로서의 VPIN의 활용가능성을 확인할 수 있었다. 이상의 결과는 사전적으로 KOSPI200과 KOSPI200 선물 시장의 변동성 예측과 미래가격 변화를 탐색할 수 있는 측정치로 금융시장에서 발생하는 위험에 대한 예고지표로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제35권6호
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• pp.715-727
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• 2002

하도구간의 도달시간은 일정 구간별로 하도길이를 홍수가 하류로 유하하는 평균유속으로 나눔으로써 산정 할 수 있으며, 유역추적법에 의한 홍수량 산정 시 필요한 저류상수 등과 매우 밀접한 관계를 가지고 있다. 이러한 도달시간을 산정 할 수 있는 경험공식이 많이 제시되고 있으나 경험공식별로 계산된 도달시간은 일반적으로 큰 편차를 나타내고 있다. 본 연구에서는 100개 이상 하천의 확률홍수량에 대한 수면곡선계산 자료에서 구간별 하도의 평균경사와 평균유속을 수집하였다. 이러한 평균경사와 평균유속과의 관계를 회귀분석한 결과를 살펴보면 동일한 평균경사에서도 평균유속이 많이 산포 되어 있음을 알 수 있으며 이는 지역별 확률강우량의 차이와 하천별 유역면적의 차이 등에 기인한다. 따라서, 지역별 확률강우량의 차이와 하천별 유역면적의 차이에 대한 영향을 제거하는 방법을 개발하여 일반화된 평균경사-평균유속 관계를 제시하였다. 이에 따라 하천종단에서 구간별 평균경사를 산정하면 일반화된 평균경시-평균유속의 관계를 사용하여 일반화된 평균유속을 산정 할 수 있으며, 이를 지역별 확률강우량의 차이와 하천별 유역면적의 차이에 대하여 보정하여 대상하천에 대한 평균유속을 산정하고 이를 이용하여 도달시간을 산정 하게된다.

• 통합자연과학논문집
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.208-213
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• 2014

National-wide and/or large scale sample surveys generally use complex sample design. Traditional Pearson chi-square test is not appropriate for the categorical complex sample data. Rao-Scott suggested an adjustment method for Pearson chi-square test, which uses the average of eigenvalues of design matrix of cell probabilities. This study is to compare the efficiency of Rao-Scott first order adjusted test to Wald test for homogeneity between two populations using 2009 Gyeongnam regional education offices's customer satisfaction survey (2009 GREOCSS) data. The 2009 GREOCSS data were collected based on stratified three-stage cluster sampling with probability proportional to size. The empirical results show that the Rao-Scott adjusted test statistic using only the variances of cell probabilities is very close to the Wald test statistic, which uses the covariance matrix of cell probabilities, under the 2009 GREOCSS data based. However it is necessary to be cautious to use the Rao-Scott first order adjusted test statistic in the place of Wald test because its efficiency is decreasing as the relative variance of eigenvalues of the design matrix of cell probabilities is increasing, specially more when the number of degrees of freedom is small.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제30권6호
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• pp.575-595
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• 2020

The characteristics of winds associated with tropical cyclones are of great significance in many engineering fields. This paper presents an investigation of wind characteristics over a coastal urban terrain based on field measurements collected from multiple cup anemometers and ultrasonic anemometers equipped at 13 height levels on a 356-m-high meteorological tower in Shenzhen during severe Typhoon Hato. Several wind quantities, including wind spectrum, gust factor, turbulence intensity and length scale as well as wind profile, are presented and discussed. Specifically, the probability distributions of fluctuating wind speeds are analyzed in connection with the normal distribution and the generalized extreme value distribution. The von Karman spectral model is found to be suitable to depict the energy distributions of three-dimensionally fluctuating winds. Gust factors, turbulence intensity and length scale are determined and discussed. Moreover, this paper presents the wind profiles measured during the typhoon, and a comparative study of the vertical distribution of wind speeds from the field measurements and existing empirical models is performed. The influences of the topography features and wind speeds on the wind profiles were investigated based on the field-measured wind records. In general, the empirical models can provide reasonable predictions for the measured wind speed profiles over a typical coastal urban area during a severe typhoon.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.141-153
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• 2020

Probabilistic information regarding directional extreme wind speeds is important for the precise estimation of the design wind loads on structures. A joint probability distribution model of directional extreme typhoon wind speeds is established using Monte Carlo simulation and empirical copula function to fully consider the correlations of extreme typhoon wind speeds among the different directions. With this model, a procedure for estimating directional extreme wind speeds for given return periods, which ensures that the overall risk is distributed uniformly by direction, is established. Taking 5 typhoon-prone cities in China as examples, the directional extreme typhoon wind speeds for given return periods estimated by the present method are compared with those estimated by the method proposed by Cook and Miller (1999). Two types of directional factors are obtained based on Cook and Miller (1999) and the UK standard's drafting committee (Standard B, 1997), and the directional risks for the given overall risks are discussed. The influences of the extreme wind speed correlations in the different directions and the simulated typhoon wind speed sample sizes on the estimated extreme wind speeds for a given return period are also discussed.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권9호
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• pp.351-362
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• 2020

This research investigates the credit management guidelines to strengthen Thai industrial sector. The research has been simulated from the findings of both qualitative and quantitative of 500 questionnaires distributed to industrial business executives in Thailand. The data were analyzed by descriptive analysis categorized into SME and large enterprises, and SEM to conduct the model in consistent with the empirical data. The results show that: (1) the credit management guidelines consist of 4 factors: a) characteristics management b) financial management c) operations management and d) assets management. The business executives gave overall importance on the guidelines at a high level with an average of 3.86. (2) The development of SEM shows that the model fits with the empirical data at Chi-Square probability level = 0.084, CMIN/DF = 1.164, GFI = 0.965 and RMSEA = 0.018. (3) The characteristics management directly influences the financial management and the operation management. The financial management directly influences on the assets management. The assets management has direct influence on the operations management. The findings show that the characteristics management is the essential starting component in SEM and the financial management factor has the most influence in the assets management variable with standard regression weight of 0.990.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제13권8호
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• pp.3862-3879
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• 2019

More and more problems for public security have occurred due to the limited solutions for drone detection especially for micro-drone in long range conditions. This paper aims at dealing with drones detection using a radar system. The radio frequency (RF) signals emitted by a controller can be acquired using the radar, which are usually too weak to extract. To detect the drone successfully, the static clutters and linear trend terms are suppressed based on the background estimation algorithm and linear trend suppression. The principal component analysis technique is used to classify the noises and effective RF signals. The automatic gain control technique is used to enhance the signal to noise ratios (SNR) of RF signals. Meanwhile, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) based wavelet transform (WT) is developed to decrease the influences of the Gaussian white noises. Then, both the azimuth information between the drone and radar and the bandwidth of the RF signals are acquired based on the statistical analysis algorithm developed in this paper. Meanwhile, the proposed accumulation algorithm can also provide the bandwidth estimation, which can be used to make a decision accurately whether there are drones or not in the detection environments based on the probability theory. The detection performance is validated with several experiments conducted outdoors with strong interferences.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.37-48
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• 2020

Purpose - This study empirically investigates whether the risk property included in fat-tails of return distributions is systematic or unsystematic based on the devised statistical methods. Design/methodology/approach - This study devised empirical designs based on two traditional methods: principal component analysis (PCA) and the testing method of portfolio diversification effect. The fatness of the tails in return distributions is quantitatively measured by statistical probability. Findings - According to the results, the risk property in the fat-tails of return distributions has the economic meanings of eigenvalues having a value greater than 1 through PCA, and also systematic risk that cannot be removed through portfolio diversification. In other words, the fat-tails of return distributions have the properties of the common factors, which may explain the changes of stock returns. Meanwhile, the fatness of the tails in the portfolio return distributions shows the asymmetric relationship of common factors on the tails of return distributions. The negative tail in the portfolio return distribution has a much closer relation with the property of common factors, compared to the positive tail. Research implications or Originality - This empirical evidence may complement the existing studies related to tail risk which is utilized in pricing models as a common factor.

• 한국해양공학회지
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• 제35권4호
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• pp.257-265
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• 2021

Many studies have been performed to predict a reliable and accurate stress-range distribution and fatigue damage regarding the Gaussian wide-band stress response due to multi-peak waves and multiple dynamic loads. So far, most of the approximation models provide slightly inaccurate results in comparison with the rain-flow counting method as an exact solution. A step-by-step study was carried out to develop new approximate spectral moments that are close to the rain-flow counting moment, which can be used for the development of a fatigue damage model. Using the special parameters and bandwidth parameters, four kinds of parameter-based combinations were constructed and estimated using the R-squared values from regression analysis. Based on the results, four candidate empirical formulas were determined and compared with the rain-flow counting moment, probability density function, and root mean square (RMS) value for relative distance. The new approximate spectral moments were finally decided through comparison studies of eight response spectra. The new spectral moments presented in this study could play an important role in improving the accuracy of fatigue damage model development. The present study shows that the new approximate moment is a very important variable for the enhancement of Gaussian wide-band fatigue damage assessment.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.61-69
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• 2023

Purpose: This study's purpose is to conduct empirical research on online comments affect Vietnamese consumers' impulsive buying in e-distribution. This study also considers affecting of browsing toward the urge to buy, and the urge to buy toward impulse buying in e-distribution. Research design, data and methodology: This study used the non-probability method to assemble data from 273 customers' online buying experiences via a Google Forms online survey. By using SmartPLS, the data were examined for reliability, convergent validity, discriminant validity of the variables, and proposed hypothesis testing. Results: The empirical study discovered that internet comments with utilitarian and hedonistic values had a positive effect on browsing, the urge to buy, and impulse purchases in e-distribution. Additionally, the result revealed that browsing had a positive influence on the urge to purchase. Likewise, the findings also disclosed that the urge to buy had a favorable effect on impulse buying. Conclusions: This study offered a thorough conceptual model of internet feedback influencing browsing, urge to buy, and impulsive purchases in e-distribution. Also, to increase impulsive buying, this study will assist e-distribution managers in concentrating on developing innovative marketing strategies and action plans that take into consideration consumers' internet reviews, browsing, and urge to buy.