• Title/Summary/Keyword: Empirical Probability

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Marriage Between Spouses from the Same Native Place in Korea: Empirical Analysis (우리나라 동향결혼의 변화추세와 결정요인: 실증분석)

  • Jo, Dong-Hyuk;Park, Sun-Kwon;Sung, Nak-Il
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.109-138
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    • 2011
  • This study examines marriage between spouses from the same native place, suggests some stylized facts regarding the marriage type, and attempts to assess demographic, regional and economic factors which affect the probability of marriage between spouses from the same native place. Empirical analysis is carried out with original microdata on marriage over the period 1993-2009. Empirical results indicate that the birthplace of spouse played a less and less important role in marriage-related decision over time. Second, in addition to differences in a propensity to choose a person from the same native place as a spouse across regions, mobility and composition in population affected the probability of marriage between spouses from the same native place. For example, an influx of people into the capital region accelerated the chance of face-to-face communication between persons from the different birthplace, thereby decreasing the probability of marriage between spouses from the same native place. Finally, wider income gap between husband and wife led to lower probability of marriage between spouses from the same native place. To the best of our knowledge, this study is one of the first empirical analysis to investigate into the relationship between marriage and birthplace.

Empirical seismic vulnerability probability prediction model of RC structures considering historical field observation

  • Si-Qi Li;Hong-Bo Liu;Ke Du;Jia-Cheng Han;Yi-Ru Li;Li-Hui Yin
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.86 no.4
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    • pp.547-571
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    • 2023
  • To deeply probe the actual earthquake level and fragility of typical reinforced concrete (RC) structures under multiple intensity grades, considering diachronic measurement building stock samples and actual observations of representative catastrophic earth shocks in China from 1990 to 2010, RC structures were divided into traditional RC structures (TRCs) and bottom reinforced concrete frame seismic wall masonry (BFM) structures, and the empirical damage characteristics and mechanisms were analysed. A great deal of statistics and induction were developed on the historical experience investigation data of 59 typical catastrophic earthquakes in 9 provinces of China. The database and fragility matrix prediction model were established with TRCs of 4,122.5284×104 m2 and 5,844 buildings and BFMs of 5,872 buildings as empirical seismic damage samples. By employing the methods of structural damage probability and statistics, nonlinear prediction of seismic vulnerability, and numerical and applied functional analysis, the comparison matrix of actual fragility probability prediction of TRC and BFM in multiple intensity regions under the latest version of China's macrointensity standard was established. A novel nonlinear regression prediction model of seismic vulnerability was proposed, and prediction models considering the seismic damage ratio and transcendental probability parameters were constructed. The time-varying vulnerability comparative model of the sample database was developed according to the different periods of multiple earthquakes. The new calculation method of the average fragility prediction index (AFPI) matrix parameter model has been proposed to predict the seismic fragility of an areal RC structure.

A Study on the Determinants of Free Trade Agreement in South Korea: Evidence from Asian Countries

  • He, Yugang
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.16 no.11
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    • pp.37-45
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - Recently, large quantities of factors have affected the signing of the Free Trade Agreement between two countries. Due to this background, this paper selects South Korea as an example to explore the determinants of Free Trade Agreement from Asian countries. Research design, data, and methodology - A cross sectional data of 2016 will be employed and some variables such as real income and GDP will be used to run an empirical analysis under the linear probability model, probit model and logit model. Results - The findings show that the Asian countries' exchange rate regime, real income, GDP and so forth can increase the probability of signing the Free Trade Agreement with Asian countries. Conversely, the distance can lower the probability of signing the Free Trade Agreement with Asian countries. Meanwhile, although the Asian countries' import, consumer price index and population also can affect the probability of signing the Free Trade Agreement with Asian countries, the estimated coefficients are not statistically significant at 5% level. Conclusions - According to the empirical results, this paper provides a new scope for South Korea's government to sign the Free Trade Agreement with other Asian countries.

Does Individual's Income always Matter Happiness?: Evidence from China

  • HE, Yugang;WU, Renhong
    • Journal of Wellbeing Management and Applied Psychology
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.21-31
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    • 2020
  • As people's income rises dramatically, people's happiness seems not as high as expected. In fact, there are two different arguments about the relationship between income level and happiness. The focus of the debate is whether the correlation between income and probability of happiness is positive or negative. Therefore, we hypothesizes that the relationship between income and probability of happiness presents an inverted U-shaped curve. Then, this paper sets China as an example to explore the effect of income on happiness. The data from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) in 2015 is employed to conduct empirical analyses under the Probit model and the Zero-Inflation-Passion model. The empirical findings indicate that the effect of income on happiness presents an inverted U-shaped curve and significantly in statistic. Meanwhile, spouse's income, educational level, marriage time and house property have a positive and significant effect on happiness. Conversely, age and local living standards have a negative and significant effect on happiness. Unfortunately, even though registered residence and children have a negative effect on happiness, they do not get through the significant test. In order to ensure the robustness of our empirical results, we test the robustness of the above empirical results by adjusting the sample size. The results of robustness test verify that our empirical results are robust. Moreover, this paper also makes a small contribution to the current literature with a sample from China.

Rate of Convergence of Empirical Distributions and Quantiles in Linear Processes with Applications to Trimmed Mean

  • Lee, Sangyeol
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.435-441
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    • 1999
  • A 'convergence in probability' rate of the empirical distributions and quantiles of linear processes is obtained. As an application of the limit theorems, a trimmed mean for the location of the linear process is considered. It is shown that the trimmed mean is asymptotically normal. A consistent estimator for the asymptotic variance of the trimmed mean is provided.

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How to forecast solar flares, solar proton events, and geomagnetic storms

  • Moon, Yong Jae
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.33-33
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    • 2013
  • We are developing empirical space weather (solar flare, solar proton event, and geomagnetic storm) forecast models based on solar data. In this talk we will review our main results and recent progress. First, we have examined solar flare (R) occurrence probability depending on sunspot McIntosh classification, its area, and its area change. We find that sunspot area and its increase (a proxy of flux emergence) greatly enhance solar flare occurrence rates for several sunspot classes. Second, a solar proton event (S) forecast model depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameters (speed and angular width) has been developed. We find that solar proton event probability strongly depends on these parameters and CME speed is well correlated with solar proton flux for disk events. Third, we have developed an empirical storm (G) forecast model to predict probability and strength of a storm using halo CME - Dst storm data. For this we use storm probability maps depending on CME parameters such as speed, location, and earthward direction. We are also looking for geoeffective CME parameters such as cone model parameters and magnetic field orientation. We find that all superstorms (less than -200 nT) occurred in the western hemisphere with southward field orientations. We have a plan to set up a storm forecast method with a three-stage approach, which will make a prediction within four hours after the solar coronagraph data become available. We expect that this study will enable us to forecast the onset and strength of a geomagnetic storm a few days in advance using only CME parameters and the WSA-ENLIL model. Finally, we discuss several ongoing works for space weather applications.

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The Statistical Analysis of Differential Probability Using GPGPU Technology (GPGPU 기술을 활용한 차분 확률의 통계적 분석)

  • Jo, Eunji;Kim, Seong-Gyeom;Hong, Deukjo;Sung, Jaechul;Hong, Seokhie
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.477-489
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, we experimentally verify the expected differential probability under the markov cipher assumption and the distribution of the differential probability. Firstly, we validate the expected differential probability of 6round-PRESENT of the lightweight block cipher under the markov cipher assumption by analyzing the empirical differential probability. Secondly, we demonstrate that even though the expected differential probability under the markov cipher assumption seems valid, the empirical distribution does not follow the well-known distribution of the differential probability. The results was deduced from the 4round-GIFT. Finally, in order to analyze whether the key-schedule affects the mis-matching phenomenon, we collect the results while changing the XOR positions of round keys on GIFT. The results show that the key-schedule is not the only factor to affect the mis-matching phenomenon. Leveraging on GPGPU technology, the data collection process can be performed about 157 times faster than using CPU only.

Approximating the Outage Probability of the Pilot Channel for IS-95-Based Cellular CDMA Systems in the Soft Handover Region

  • Park, Seung-Keun;Cho, Pyung-Dong;Park, Ki-Shik;Cho, Kyung-Rok
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.523-526
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    • 2003
  • This letter presents an approximation of the outage probability of the pilot channel that can be used for CDMA cell planning. The approximation can determine system parameters for soft handover in IS-95-based cellular CDMA downlink design. Computer simulations show that our analytical results agree with empirical results.

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On the Residual Empirical Distribution Function of Stochastic Regression with Correlated Errors

  • Zakeri, Issa-Fakhre;Lee, Sangyeol
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.291-297
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    • 2001
  • For a stochastic regression model in which the errors are assumed to form a stationary linear process, we show that the difference between the empirical distribution functions of the errors and the estimates of those errors converges uniformly in probability to zero at the rate of $o_{p}$ ( $n^{-}$$\frac{1}{2}$) as the sample size n increases.

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