• Title/Summary/Keyword: Emissions uncertainty

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Measurement of Methane Production from Ruminants

  • Bhatta, Raghavendra;Enishi, Osamu;Kurihara, Mitsunori
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.20 no.8
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    • pp.1305-1318
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    • 2007
  • On a global scale agriculture and in particular enteric fermentation in ruminants is reported to produce about one fourth (21 to 25%) of the total anthropogenic emissions of methane ($CH_4$). Methane is produced during the anaerobic fermentation of hydrolyzed dietary carbohydrates in the rumen and represents an energy loss to the host besides contributing to emissions of greenhouse gases into the environment. However, there appears to be uncertainty in the $CH_4$ estimation from livestock due to the limited availability of data to document the variability at the farm level and also due to the significant impact of diet on the enteric $CH_4$ production. The methane mitigation strategies require robust prediction of emissions from rumen. There are many methods available which would be suitable for measuring $CH_4$ produced from the various stages of animal production. However, several factors need to be considered in order to select the most appropriate technique like the cost, level of accuracy required and the scale and design of the experiments to be undertaken. Selection of any technique depends on the accuracy as each one has its advantages and disadvantages. Screening of mitigation strategies may be evaluated using individual animal before large-scale trials on groups of animals are carried out. In this review various methods for the estimation of methane production from ruminants as well as for the determination of methane production potential of ruminant feeds are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of the methods starting from respiration chamber, ventilated hood, facemask, sulphur hexafluoride ($SF_6$) tracer technique, prediction equations and meteorological methods to in vitro methods are detailed.

Global Carbon Budget Changes under RCP Scenarios in HadGEM2-CC (HadGEM-CC 모델의 RCP 시나리오에 따른 전지구 탄소수지 변화 전망)

  • Heo, Tae-Kyung;Boo, Kyung-On;Shim, Sungbo;Hong, Jinkyu;Hong, Je-Woo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.85-97
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    • 2015
  • This study is to investigate future changes in carbon cycle using the HadGEM2-Carbon Cycle simulations driven by $CO_2$ emissions. For experiment, global carbon budget is integrated from the two (8.5/2.6) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the period of 1860~2100 by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Carbon Cycle (Had-GEM2-CC). From 1985 to 2005, total cumulative $CO_2$ amount of anthropogenic emission prescribed as 156 GtC. The amount matches to the observed estimates (CDIAC) over the same period (136 GtC). As $CO_2$ emissions into the atmosphere increase, the similar increasing tendency is found in the simulated atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration and temperature. Atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration in the simulation is projected to be 430 ppm for RCP 2.6 at the end of the twenty-first century and as high as 931 ppm for RCP 8.5. Simulated global mean temperature is expected to rise by $1.6^{\circ}C$ and $3.5^{\circ}C$ for RCP 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. Land and ocean carbon uptakes also increase in proportion to the $CO_2$ emissions of RCPs. The fractions of the amount of $CO_2$ stored in atmosphere, land, and ocean are different in RCP 8.5 and 2.6. Further study is needed for reducing the simulation uncertainty based on multiple model simulations.

An Uncertainty Assessment of AOGCM and Future Projection over East Asia (동아시아 지역의 AOGCM 불확실성 평가 및 미래기후전망)

  • Kim, Min-Ji;Shin, Jin-Ho;Lee, Hyo-Shin;Kwon, Won-Tae
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.507-524
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, future climate changes over East Asia($20^{\circ}{\sim}50^{\circ}N$, $100^{\circ}{\sim}150^{\circ}E$) are projected by anthropogenic forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B and A2 scenarios. Before projection future climate, model performance is assessed by the $20^{th}$ Century (20C3M) experiment with bias, root Mean Square Error (RMSE), ratio of standard deviation, Taylor diagram analysis. The result of examination of the seasonal uncertainty of T2m and PCP shows that cold bias, lowered than that of observation, of T2m and wet bias, larger than that of observation, of PCP are found over East Asia. The largest wet bias is found in winter and the largest cold bias is found in summer. The RMSE of temperature in the annual mean increases and this trend happens in winter, too. That is, higher resolution model shows generally better performances in simulation T2m and PCP. Based on IPCC SRES scenarios, East Asia will experience warmer and wetter climate in the coming $21^{st}$ century. It is predict the T2m increase in East Asia is larger than global mean temperature. As the latitude goes high, the warming over the continents of East Asia showed much more increase than that over the ocean. An enhanced land-sea contrast is proposed as a possible mechanism of the intensified Asian summer monsoon. But, the inter-model variability in PCP changes is large.

Comparative Economic Analysis on SOx Scrubber Operation for ECA Sailing Vessel

  • Jee, Jae-hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.262-268
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    • 2020
  • The IMO (International Maritime Organization) has mandated the restriction of SOx emissions to 0.5 % for all international sailing vessels since January 2020. And, a number of countries have designated emission control areas for stricter environmental regulations. Three representative methods have been suggested to cope with these regulations; using low-sulphur oil, installing a scrubber, or using LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) as fuel. In this paper, economic analysis was performed by comparing the method of installing a scrubber with the method of using low-sulphur oil without installing additional equipment. We suggested plausible layouts and compared the pros and cons of dif erent scrubber types for retrofitting. We selected an international sailing ship as the target vessel and estimated payback time and benefits based on navigation route, fuel consumption, and installation and operation costs. Two case of oil prices were analyzed considering the uncertainty of fuel oil price fluctuation. We found that the expected payback time of investment varies from 1 year to 3.5 years depending on the operation ratio of emission control areas and the fuel oil price change.

Generation of Weather Data for Future Climate Change for South Korea using PRECIS (PRECIS를 이용한 우리나라 기후변화 기상자료의 생성)

  • Lee, Kwan-Ho
    • 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.04a
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    • pp.54-58
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    • 2011
  • According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter governmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), climate change is already in progress around the world, and it is necessary to start mitigation and adaptation strategies for buildings in order to minimize adverse impacts. It is likely that the South Korea will experience milder winters and hotter and more extreme summers. Those changes will impact on building performance, particularly with regard to cooling and ventilation, with implications for the quality of the indoor environment, energy consumption and carbon emissions. This study generate weather data for future climate change for use in impacts studies using PRECIS (Providing REgional Climate for Impacts Studies). These scenarios and RCM (Regional Climate Model) are provided high-resolution climate-change predictions for a region generally consistent with the continental-scale climate changes predicted in the GCM (Global Climate Model).

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Impact of Emission Inventory Choices on PM10 Forecast Accuracy and Contributions in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (배출량 목록에 따른 수도권 PM10 예보 정합도 및 국내외 기여도 분석)

  • Bae, Changhan;Kim, Eunhye;Kim, Byeong-Uk;Kim, Hyun Cheol;Woo, Jung-Hun;Moon, Kwang-Joo;Shin, Hye-Jung;Song, In Ho;Kim, Soontae
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.497-514
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    • 2017
  • This study quantitatively analyzes the effects of emission inventory choices on the simulated particulate matter (PM) concentrations and the domestic/foreign contributions in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) with an air quality forecasting system. The forecasting system is composed of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE)-Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ). Different domestic and foreign emission inventories were selectively adopted to set up four sets of emissions inputs for air quality simulations in this study. All modeling cases showed that model performance statistics satisfied the criteria levels (correlation coefficient >0.7, fractional error <50%) suggested by previous studies. Notwithstanding the apparently good model performance of total PM concentrations by all emission cases, annual average concentrations of simulated total PM concentrations varied up to $20{\mu}g/m^3$ (160%) depending on the combination of emission inventories. In detail, the difference in simulated annual average concentrations of the primary PM coarse (PMC) was up to $25.2{\mu}g/m^3$ (6.5 times) compared with other cases. Furthermore, model performance analyses on PM species showed that the difference in the simulated primary PMC led to gross model overestimation in general, which indicates that the primary PMC emissions need to be improved. The contribution analysis using model direct outputs indicated that the domestic contributions to the annual average PM concentrations in the SMA vary from 44% to 67%. To account for the uncertainty of the simulated concentration, the contribution correction factor method proposed by Bae et al. (2017) was applied, which resulted in converged contributions(from 48% to 57%). We believe this study shows that it is necessary to improve the simulated concentrations of PM components in order to enhance the accuracy of the forecasting model. It is deemed that these improvements will provide more accurate contribution results.

A Study on the impact of the changes in international emissions trade market on non-CO2 CDM projects (국제 배출권 거래 시장의 제도변화가 국내 비(非)CO2 CDM 사업에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Lee, Eungkyoon;Hwang, Minsup;Lee, Myung-Kyoon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.157-185
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    • 2014
  • The Kyoto Protocol has extended its life until 2020 by the decision at COP18 in Doha, Qatar in 2012. So has the Kyoto Mechanism of CDM, JI, and ETS. Nonetheless, the sustainability of CDM projects is jeopardized by the recent rule changes in the international emissions trade market such as EU ETS and the price decrease in emission credits. In particular, the domestic CDM projects reducing non-$CO_2$ GHG emissions are being directly affected. This study examines the trend of carbon credit price change in the international market. It also examines how the rule changes in the international emissions trade market have affected domestic non-$CO_2$ CDM projects through which mechanisms. The policy implications drawn from this study is two-fold: it suggests how the government can assist the project developers in utilizing GHG emission reduction technologies and the market in promoting investment environment before the domestic ETS enters into effect in 2015; apart from possible measures within ETS, an additional measures such as bilateral carbon offset system is suggested to help the private sector reduce uncertainty in investment and increase options to choose.

Experimental and Numerical Assessment of the Effects of Various Coolant Temperature in Gasoline Vehicle on Fuel Consumption and Emissions (냉각수온 변화가 가솔린 차량의 연비 및 배출가스에 미치는 영향에 관한 실험 및 수치적 평가)

  • Jeong, SooJin;Kim, SeoKyu;Lee, GumSu;Jeong, Jinwoo;Kim, MyungHwan
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.297-308
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    • 2017
  • One of the major engine thermal management system(TMS) strategies for improving fuel economy is to operate the engine in high temperatures. Therefore, this work performed a numerical and experimental study to examine the effect of several different STOs(Starting Temperature of Opening) of wax-thermostat, ranging from $85^{\circ}C$ to $105^{\circ}C$, of gasoline engine on fuel economy and emission characteristics. In this study, a gasoline car equipped with waxthermostat was tested and simulated under FTP-75 and HWFET mode. CRUISE $M^{TM}$ was used to simulate vehicle dynamics, transient engine performance and TMS. The test results showed fuel savings for both drive cycles due to higher STO of $100^{\circ}C$, which is slightly worse than that of $90^{\circ}C$ and amounts between 0.34 and 0.475 %. These controversial results are attributed to experimental errors and uncertainty. The computational results for three STOs, $85^{\circ}C$, $95^{\circ}C$ and $105^{\circ}C$, showed that fuel savings attributed to the application of higher STOs of $95^{\circ}C$ and $105^{\circ}C$ are relatively small and range from 0.306 to 0.363 %. It is also found that the amount of HC and CO emissions from the tailpipe tends to decrease with higher engine coolant temperature because of faster catalyst light-off and improved combustion.

Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Emission from Motorcycles in 2008 (이륜차의 온실가스 배출량 추정(2008))

  • Shin, Yong Il;Kim, Jeong;Kim, Pil Su;Jang, Young Kee
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.51-57
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    • 2010
  • Recently the number of motorcycles has increased in urban area, and it is believed that motorcycle is one of the air pollution and greenhouse gas emission sources. But the greenhouse gas emission from motorcycle has been high uncertainty due investigation of a lack of activity data and emission factors in Korea. So in this study, the greenhouse gas emission from motorcycle is estimated by considering the population of moped and VKT(vehicle kilometers travelled) of motorcycle by recent other studies. And the emissions by IPCC Tier 2 and Tier 3 methodology are calculated and compared. As the results, the nationwide $CO_2$ equivalent emissions from motorcycles by Tier 2 and Tier 3 method are calculated as 2,758 kton/yr and 2,739 kton/yr in 2008. The contribution ratio of this emission is estimated as 2.7% in on-road transport sector.

Comparison of Greenhouse Gas Emission from Construction Equipment by Tier 2 and Tier 3 Methodologies (건설기계의 Tier 2와 Tier 3 방법론에 의한 온실가스 배출량 비교)

  • Shin, Yong Il;Kim, Jeong;Kim, Pil Su;Chung, Chan Kyo;Jang, Young Kee
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.13-20
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    • 2010
  • Recently, the operation of construction equipments have increased by many construction project. So a respectable amount of greenhouse gas is expected from construction equipments. But the greenhouse gas emissions from construction equipment have been high uncertainty due investigation of a lack of activity data and emission factors in Korea. In this study, annual greenhouse gas emissions from construction equipment are estimated by IPCC's Tier 2 and Tier 3 method. These methods require emission factors, fuel consumption, average kilowatts and operating hours. As the results, the nationwide emission from construction equipments by Tier 2 and Tier 3 are calculated as $21,784kton-CO_2eq/year$ and $22,811kton-CO_2eq/year$ in 2008.