• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제55권8호
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• pp.2844-2853
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• 2023

A sophisticated Bayesian multilevel model for estimating group bias was developed to improve the utility of the ASTM E900-15 embrittlement trend curve (ETC) to assess the conditions of nuclear power plants (NPPs). For multilevel model development, the Baseline 22 surveillance dataset was basically classified into groups based on the NPP name, product form, and notch orientation. By including the notch direction in the grouping criteria, the developed model could account for TTS differences among NPP groups with different notch orientations, which have not been considered in previous ETCs. The parameters of the multilevel model and biases of the NPP groups were calculated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. As the number of data points within a group increased, the group bias approached the mean residual, resulting in reduced credible intervals of the mean, and vice versa. Even when the number of surveillance test data points was less than three, the multilevel model could estimate appropriate biases without overfitting. The model also allowed for a quantitative estimate of the changes in the bias and prediction interval that occurred as a result of adding more surveillance test data. The biases estimated through the multilevel model significantly improved the performance of E900-15.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제49권5호
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• pp.1109-1112
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• 2017

The precise prediction of radiation embrittlement of aged reactor pressure vessels (RPVs) is a prerequisite for the long-term operation of nuclear power plants beyond their original design life. The expiration of the operation licenses for Korean reactors the RPVs of which are made from SA533B-1 plates and welds is imminent. Korean regulatory rules have adopted the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's transition temperature shift (TTS) models to the prediction of the embrittlement of Korean reactor pressure vessels. The applicability of the TTS model to predict the embrittlement of Korean RPVs made of SA533B-1 plates and welds was investigated in this study. It was concluded that the TTS model of 10 CFR 50.61a matched the trends of the radiation embrittlement in the SA533B-1 plates and welds better than did that of Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.99 Rev. 2. This is attributed to the fact that the prediction performance of 10 CFR 50.61a was enhanced by considering the difference in radiation embrittlement sensitivity among the different types of RPV materials.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제44권5호
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• pp.543-550
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• 2012

The decrease in the fracture toughness of ferritic steels in a reactor pressure vessel is an important factor in determining the lifetime of a nuclear power plant. A surveillance program has been in place in Korea since 1979 to assess the structural integrity of RPV steels. In this work, the surveillance data were collected and analyzed statistically in order to derive the empirical relationship between the embrittlement and strengthening of irradiated reactor pressure vessel steels. There was a linear relationship between the yield strength change and the transition temperature shift change at 41 J due to irradiation. The proportional coefficient was about $0.5^{\circ}C$/MPa in the base metals (plate/forgings). The upper shelf energy decrease ratio was non-linearly proportional to the yield strength change, and most of the data lay along the trend curve of the US results. The transition regime temperature interval, ${\Delta}T_T$, was less than the US data. The overall change from irradiation was very similar to the US results. It is expected that the results of this study will be applied to basic research on the multiscale modeling of the irradiation embrittlement of RPV materials in Korea.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.364-376
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• 1998

The statistical analysis method was applied to the evaluation of fracture toughness in the ductile-brittle transition temperature region. Because cleavage fracture in steel is of a statistical nature, fracture toughness data or values show a similar statistical trend. Using the three-parameter Weibull distribution, a fracture toughness vs. temperature curve (K-curve) was directly generated from a set of fracture toughness data at a selected temperature. Charpy V-notch impact energy was also used to obtain the K-curve by a $K_{IC}$ -CVN (Charpy V-notch energy) correlation. Furthermore, this method was applied to evaluate the neutron irradiation embrittlement of reactor pressure vessel (RPV) steel. Most of the fracture toughness data were within the 95% confidence limits. The prediction of a transition temperature shift by statistical analysis was compared with that from the experimental data.