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A Study on Commodity Asset Investment Model Based on Machine Learning Technique (기계학습을 활용한 상품자산 투자모델에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Jin Ho;Choi, Heung Sik;Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.127-146
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    • 2017
  • Services using artificial intelligence have begun to emerge in daily life. Artificial intelligence is applied to products in consumer electronics and communications such as artificial intelligence refrigerators and speakers. In the financial sector, using Kensho's artificial intelligence technology, the process of the stock trading system in Goldman Sachs was improved. For example, two stock traders could handle the work of 600 stock traders and the analytical work for 15 people for 4weeks could be processed in 5 minutes. Especially, big data analysis through machine learning among artificial intelligence fields is actively applied throughout the financial industry. The stock market analysis and investment modeling through machine learning theory are also actively studied. The limits of linearity problem existing in financial time series studies are overcome by using machine learning theory such as artificial intelligence prediction model. The study of quantitative financial data based on the past stock market-related numerical data is widely performed using artificial intelligence to forecast future movements of stock price or indices. Various other studies have been conducted to predict the future direction of the market or the stock price of companies by learning based on a large amount of text data such as various news and comments related to the stock market. Investing on commodity asset, one of alternative assets, is usually used for enhancing the stability and safety of traditional stock and bond asset portfolio. There are relatively few researches on the investment model about commodity asset than mainstream assets like equity and bond. Recently machine learning techniques are widely applied on financial world, especially on stock and bond investment model and it makes better trading model on this field and makes the change on the whole financial area. In this study we made investment model using Support Vector Machine among the machine learning models. There are some researches on commodity asset focusing on the price prediction of the specific commodity but it is hard to find the researches about investment model of commodity as asset allocation using machine learning model. We propose a method of forecasting four major commodity indices, portfolio made of commodity futures, and individual commodity futures, using SVM model. The four major commodity indices are Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(GSCI), Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index(DJUI), Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index(TRCI), and Rogers International Commodity Index(RI). We selected each two individual futures among three sectors as energy, agriculture, and metals that are actively traded on CME market and have enough liquidity. They are Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Wheat, Gold and Silver Futures. We made the equally weighted portfolio with six commodity futures for comparing with other commodity indices. We set the 19 macroeconomic indicators including stock market indices, exports & imports trade data, labor market data, and composite leading indicators as the input data of the model because commodity asset is very closely related with the macroeconomic activities. They are 14 US economic indicators, two Chinese economic indicators and two Korean economic indicators. Data period is from January 1990 to May 2017. We set the former 195 monthly data as training data and the latter 125 monthly data as test data. In this study, we verified that the performance of the equally weighted commodity futures portfolio rebalanced by the SVM model is better than that of other commodity indices. The prediction accuracy of the model for the commodity indices does not exceed 50% regardless of the SVM kernel function. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy of equally weighted commodity futures portfolio is 53%. The prediction accuracy of the individual commodity futures model is better than that of commodity indices model especially in agriculture and metal sectors. The individual commodity futures portfolio excluding the energy sector has outperformed the three sectors covered by individual commodity futures portfolio. In order to verify the validity of the model, it is judged that the analysis results should be similar despite variations in data period. So we also examined the odd numbered year data as training data and the even numbered year data as test data and we confirmed that the analysis results are similar. As a result, when we allocate commodity assets to traditional portfolio composed of stock, bond, and cash, we can get more effective investment performance not by investing commodity indices but by investing commodity futures. Especially we can get better performance by rebalanced commodity futures portfolio designed by SVM model.

A Study on the Impact of Competency of Technology: Based Startups on Performance Using ETRI Technology (ETRI 기술을 활용한 기술창업기업의 역량이 경영성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Bae, Hongbeom;Song, Minkyung;Kim, Seokyun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.61-72
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    • 2018
  • In a rapidly changing environment, such as globalization, technology-based startups are attracting attention as a new growth engine that creates jobs and added value and promotes national competitiveness. At present, countries around the world recognize the development of technology-based start-up companies as a major policy task and strive to make policy efforts to revitalize start-ups and strengthen innovation capabilities of companies. Especially, in order to secure superiority in the fierce market competition, it is becoming more and more important for the growth and development of technological start-up companies that pioneer new markets and energize the economy based on original and innovative technologies. Therefore, it is necessary to study systematically and plan for survival and growth of technology start-up companies. The purpose of this study is to investigate the entrepreneurial spirit of Innovation, Entrepreneurship, Risk Sensibility and Technology Innovation Capacity, R&D ability, Technology Accumulation Capacity, Technology Innovation System, The results of this study are as follows. the effects of marketing ability on technical performance and financial performance are examined. First, the CEO 's entrepreneurial spirit has an effect on the technical performance and financial performance of the management performance. Second, the technology accumulation ability and the R & D capability have a positive effect on the technical performance. Finally, it was found that the ability to commercialize the technology commercialization capacity affects both technical performance and financial performance. The policy implications that can be gained through this are as follows. First, by strengthening cooperation between universities and research institutes, related technology entrepreneurship education programs should be upgraded so that technology entrepreneurs or preliminary entrepreneurs can capture business opportunities and secure market price competitiveness. Secondly, R & D for the purpose of start-up should be developed and marketable technology should be developed and linked to direct start-up. Third, it is necessary to activate the program to match the company with the honorary retirement manpower of large enterprises and SMEs, which have more experience in field experience than the founders.

Target Advertisement Service using a Viewer's Profile Reasoning (시청자 프로파일 추론 기법을 이용한 표적 광고 서비스)

  • Kim Munjo;Im Jeongyeon;Kang Sanggil;Kim Munchrul;Kang Kyungok
    • Journal of Broadcast Engineering
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    • v.10 no.1 s.26
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    • pp.43-56
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    • 2005
  • In the existing broadcasting environment, it is not easy to serve the bi-directional service between a broadcasting server and a TV audience. In the uni-directional broadcasting environments, almost TV programs are scheduled depending on the viewers' popular watching time, and the advertisement contents in these TV programs are mainly arranged by the popularity and the ages of the audience. The audiences make an effort to sort and select their favorite programs. However, the advertisement programs which support the TV program the audience want are not served to the appropriate audiences efficiently. This randomly provided advertisement contents can occur to the audiences' indifference and avoidance. In this paper, we propose the target advertisement service for the appropriate distribution of the advertisement contents. The proposed target advertisement service estimates the audience's profile without any issuing the private information and provides the target-advertised contents by using his/her estimated profile. For the experimental results, we used the real audiences' TV usage history such as the ages, fonder and time of the programs from AC Neilson Korea. And we show the accuracy of the proposed target advertisement service algorithm. NDS (Normalized Distance Sum) and the Vector correlation method, and implementation of our target advertisement service system.

Recycling of Acidic Etching Waste Solution Containing Heavy Metals by Nanofiltration (I): Evaluation of Acid Stability of Commercial Nanofiltration Membranes (나노여과에 의한 중금속 함유 산성 폐에칭액의 재생(I): 상용 나노여과 막의 산 안정성 평가)

  • Youm, Kyung-Ho;Shin, Hwa-Sup;Jin, Cheon-Deok
    • Membrane Journal
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.317-323
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    • 2009
  • In this study the nanofiltration (NF) membrane treatment of a nitric acid waste solutions containing $Pb^{+2}$ heavy metal ion discharging from the etching processes of an electronics and semiconductors industry has been studied for the purpose of recycling of nitric acid etching solutions. Three kinds of NF membranes (General Electric Co. Duraslick NF-4040 membrane, Dow Co. Filmtec LP-4040 membrane and Koch Co. SelRO MPS-34 4040 membrane) were tested for their separation efficiency (total rejection) of $Pb^{+2}$ ion and membrane stability in nitric acid solution. NF experiments were carried out with a dead-end membrane filtration laboratory system. The membrane permeate flux was increased with the increasing storage time in nitric acid solution and lowering pH of acid solution because of the enhancing of NF membrane damage by nitric acid. The membrane stability in nitric acid solution was more superior in the order of Filmtec LP-4040 < Duraslick NF-4040 < SelRO MPS-34 4040 membrane. The total rejection of Pb+2 ion was decreased with the increasing storage time in nitric acid solution and lowering the pH of acid solution. The total rejection of $Pb^{+2}$ ion after 4 months NF treatment was decreased from 95% initial value to 20% in the case of Duraslick NF-4040 membrane, from 85% initial value to 65% in the case of SelRO MPS-34 4040 membrane and from 90% initial value to 10% in the case of Filmtec LP-4040 membrane. These results showed that SelRO MPS-34 4040 NF membrane was more suitable for the treatment of an acidic etching waste solutions containing heavy metal ions.

Verification of wrinkle improvement effect by animal experiment of suture for skin wrinkle improvement by applying CO2 gas and RF radio frequency (CO2 gas와 RF 고주파를 적용한 피부 주름 개선용 봉합사 동물 실험에 따른 주름 개선 효과 검증)

  • Jeong, Jin-Hyoung;Shin, Un-Seop;Song, Mi-Hui;Lee, Sang-Sik
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.226-234
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    • 2020
  • As the average life expectancy of human beings is extended in addition to the entry of the aging society, there is a tendency for the interest in the appearance of men and women in modern society to increase. The most external judgment of human aging is the wrinkles on the facial skin. People are undergoing various procedures to have clean, wrinkled, and resilient healthy skin. Many thread lifting procedures are being implemented because they tend to want simple and effective procedures during the procedure. In this study, in order to improve lifting effect in thread lifting, animal experiments were conducted to confirm the improvement of wrinkles by injecting RF high frequency and CO2 gas into existing PDO suture procedures. The experimental groups consisted of natural aging groups, PDO treatment groups, groups with RF high frequency in PDO procedures, groups with CO2 gas injected into PDO procedures, and groups with CO2 gas and RF injected simultaneously into PDO procedures. The individuals in the natural aging group had an average wrinkle depth of 0.408mm before the procedure, and the average wrinkle depth of the 10th week was 0.68mm. The depth of wrinkles in the PDO treatment group averaged 0.384mm before the procedure, and 0.348mm on the 10th week after the procedure. The average crease depth of pre-procedure objects injected with RF high frequency in PDO was 0.42mm, and the average crease depth for 10 weeks was 0.378mm. The average crease depth of the CO2 gas injected into the PDO was 0.4mm before the procedure, and the average crease depth was reduced to 0.332mm in the 10th week after the procedure. On average, the number of objects injected with CO2 gas and RF high frequency in the PDO procedure decreased to 0.412mm before and 0.338mm in the 10th week after the procedure. The procedure of injecting CO2 gas and RF into the PDO suture showed the highest reduction rate of 17.96%.

The progress in NF3 destruction efficiencies of electrically heated scrubbers (전기가열방식 스크러버의 NF3 제거 효율)

  • Moon, Dong Min;Lee, Jin Bok;Lee, Jee-Yon;Kim, Dong Hyun;Lee, Suk Hyun;Lee, Myung Gyu;Kim, Jin Seog
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.535-543
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    • 2006
  • Being used widely in semiconductor and display manufacturing, $NF_3$ is internationally considered as one of the regulated compounds in emission. Numerous companies have been continuously trying to reduce the emissions of $NF_3$ to comply with the global environmental regulation. This work is made to report the destruction and removal efficiency (DRE) of electrically heated scrubbers and the use rate in process chambers installed in three main LCD manufacturing companies in Korea. As the measurement techniques for $NF_3$ emission, mass flow controlled helium gas was continuously supplied into the equipment by which scrubber efficiency is being measured. The partial pressures of $NF_3$ and helium were accurately measured for each sample using a mass spectrometer, as it is emitted from inlet and outlet of the scrubber system. The results show that the DRE value for electrically heated scrubbers installed before 2004 is less than 52 %, while that for the new scrubbers modified based on measurement by scrubber manufacturer has been sigificentely improved upto more than 95 %. In additon, we have confirmed the efficiency depends on such variables as the inlet gas flow rate, water content, heater temperature, and preventative management period. The use rates of $NF_3$ in process chambers were also affected by the process type. The use rate of radio frequency source chambers, built in the $1^{st}$ and $2^{nd}$ generation process lines, was determined to be less than 75 %. In addition, that of remote plasma source chambers for the $3^{rd}$ generation was measured to be aboove 95 %. Therefore, the combined application of improved scrubber and the RPSC process chamber to the semiconductor and display process can reduce $NF_3$ emmision by 99.95 %. It is optimistic that the mission for the reduction of greenhouse gas emission can be realized in these LCD manufacturing companies in Korea.

Product Evaluation Criteria Extraction through Online Review Analysis: Using LDA and k-Nearest Neighbor Approach (온라인 리뷰 분석을 통한 상품 평가 기준 추출: LDA 및 k-최근접 이웃 접근법을 활용하여)

  • Lee, Ji Hyeon;Jung, Sang Hyung;Kim, Jun Ho;Min, Eun Joo;Yeo, Un Yeong;Kim, Jong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.97-117
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    • 2020
  • Product evaluation criteria is an indicator describing attributes or values of products, which enable users or manufacturers measure and understand the products. When companies analyze their products or compare them with competitors, appropriate criteria must be selected for objective evaluation. The criteria should show the features of products that consumers considered when they purchased, used and evaluated the products. However, current evaluation criteria do not reflect different consumers' opinion from product to product. Previous studies tried to used online reviews from e-commerce sites that reflect consumer opinions to extract the features and topics of products and use them as evaluation criteria. However, there is still a limit that they produce irrelevant criteria to products due to extracted or improper words are not refined. To overcome this limitation, this research suggests LDA-k-NN model which extracts possible criteria words from online reviews by using LDA and refines them with k-nearest neighbor. Proposed approach starts with preparation phase, which is constructed with 6 steps. At first, it collects review data from e-commerce websites. Most e-commerce websites classify their selling items by high-level, middle-level, and low-level categories. Review data for preparation phase are gathered from each middle-level category and collapsed later, which is to present single high-level category. Next, nouns, adjectives, adverbs, and verbs are extracted from reviews by getting part of speech information using morpheme analysis module. After preprocessing, words per each topic from review are shown with LDA and only nouns in topic words are chosen as potential words for criteria. Then, words are tagged based on possibility of criteria for each middle-level category. Next, every tagged word is vectorized by pre-trained word embedding model. Finally, k-nearest neighbor case-based approach is used to classify each word with tags. After setting up preparation phase, criteria extraction phase is conducted with low-level categories. This phase starts with crawling reviews in the corresponding low-level category. Same preprocessing as preparation phase is conducted using morpheme analysis module and LDA. Possible criteria words are extracted by getting nouns from the data and vectorized by pre-trained word embedding model. Finally, evaluation criteria are extracted by refining possible criteria words using k-nearest neighbor approach and reference proportion of each word in the words set. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, an experiment was conducted with review on '11st', one of the biggest e-commerce companies in Korea. Review data were from 'Electronics/Digital' section, one of high-level categories in 11st. For performance evaluation of suggested model, three other models were used for comparing with the suggested model; actual criteria of 11st, a model that extracts nouns by morpheme analysis module and refines them according to word frequency, and a model that extracts nouns from LDA topics and refines them by word frequency. The performance evaluation was set to predict evaluation criteria of 10 low-level categories with the suggested model and 3 models above. Criteria words extracted from each model were combined into a single words set and it was used for survey questionnaires. In the survey, respondents chose every item they consider as appropriate criteria for each category. Each model got its score when chosen words were extracted from that model. The suggested model had higher scores than other models in 8 out of 10 low-level categories. By conducting paired t-tests on scores of each model, we confirmed that the suggested model shows better performance in 26 tests out of 30. In addition, the suggested model was the best model in terms of accuracy. This research proposes evaluation criteria extracting method that combines topic extraction using LDA and refinement with k-nearest neighbor approach. This method overcomes the limits of previous dictionary-based models and frequency-based refinement models. This study can contribute to improve review analysis for deriving business insights in e-commerce market.

A Comparative Study on Awareness of Middle School Students, School Parents, and Human Resources Directors in Industrial Institutions about Admission into Specialized High Schools and Career after Graduating from Specialized High Schools (특성화고 진학 및 졸업 후 진로에 대한 중학생, 학부모, 산업체 인사 담당자의 인식 비교 연구)

  • Lee, Byung-Wook;Ahn, Jae-Yeong;Lee, Chan-Joo;Lee, Sang-Hyun
    • 대한공업교육학회지
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.48-67
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    • 2013
  • This study tried to suggest implications about operation direction of specialized high schools (SHS) by researching awareness of middle school students (MSS), school parents (SP), human resources directors in industrial institutions (HRDII) who will be the main users of SHS education, about entering SHS and career after graduating from SHS. Seniors of middle school, SP and HRDII in Asan, Chungnam were the subject of this survey research. The summary of the result of this study is as follow: First, MSS and SP usually hoped to enter general high schools rather than vocational education schools such as SHS, meister high schools, and MSS considered school records and SP considered aptitude and talent for the factors to choose high school. Second, MSS, SP, and HRDII recognized purposes of SHS as improvement of talent and aptitude, and getting a job. As for positive images of SHS, they recognized it as applying talent and aptitude to life early, getting good jobs easily, fast independence after graduation, and learning excellent technologies, and as for negative images of SHS, they recognized it as social prejudices and discrimination, students with bad school records enter them, disadvantages about promotion and wages, and being unfavorable for entering universities. They also recognized education of SHS as being effective for improvement of basic and executive ability and key competency, development of creative human resources, and improvement of right personality and courteous manners. Third, many MSS and SP showed intention to enter SHS if it is established in Asan. They wished to enter SHS because they would like to apply their aptitude and talent to life early, learn excellent skill, and hope for early employment, on the other hand, they did not wish to enter SHS because it was not suited for their aptitude and talent, awareness about SHS is low, it is unfavorable to enter universities, and there were social prejudices and discrimination. They also similarly hoped for getting jobs and entering universities after graduating from SHS. And the reason they wanted to get a job was usually because they want to be successful by advancing into society early, or because it is still hard to get a job even after graduate from the university, on the other hand, the reason they want to enter university is because is usually in-depth education about major and social discrimination about level of education. The ability to perform duties forms the greatest part of the employment standard that MSS, SP, and HRDII aware. MSS and SP usually hoped for industrial, home economics and housework and commercial majors in SHS, and considered aptitude and talent, the promising future, and being favorable for employment for choosing major. The reason HRDII hire SHS student was to develop student into talent of industrial institution, ability of student, and need for manpower with high school graduation level, and there were also partial answer that they can hire SHS student if they have ability to perform duties. The proposals about operation direction of SHS according to the results above are as follow: SHS should diversify major and curriculum to meet various requirements of student and parents, establish SHS admission system based on career guidance, and improve student's ability to perform duties by establishing work-based learning. The Government should organize work-to-school policy to enable practical career development of students from SHS, and promote relevant policy to reinforcing SHS education rather than quantitative evaluation such as employment rate, and cooperative support from each government departments is required to make manpower with skill related to SHS to get proper evaluation and treatment.

A Study on Knowledge Entity Extraction Method for Individual Stocks Based on Neural Tensor Network (뉴럴 텐서 네트워크 기반 주식 개별종목 지식개체명 추출 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Yang, Yunseok;Lee, Hyun Jun;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.25-38
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    • 2019
  • Selecting high-quality information that meets the interests and needs of users among the overflowing contents is becoming more important as the generation continues. In the flood of information, efforts to reflect the intention of the user in the search result better are being tried, rather than recognizing the information request as a simple string. Also, large IT companies such as Google and Microsoft focus on developing knowledge-based technologies including search engines which provide users with satisfaction and convenience. Especially, the finance is one of the fields expected to have the usefulness and potential of text data analysis because it's constantly generating new information, and the earlier the information is, the more valuable it is. Automatic knowledge extraction can be effective in areas where information flow is vast, such as financial sector, and new information continues to emerge. However, there are several practical difficulties faced by automatic knowledge extraction. First, there are difficulties in making corpus from different fields with same algorithm, and it is difficult to extract good quality triple. Second, it becomes more difficult to produce labeled text data by people if the extent and scope of knowledge increases and patterns are constantly updated. Third, performance evaluation is difficult due to the characteristics of unsupervised learning. Finally, problem definition for automatic knowledge extraction is not easy because of ambiguous conceptual characteristics of knowledge. So, in order to overcome limits described above and improve the semantic performance of stock-related information searching, this study attempts to extract the knowledge entity by using neural tensor network and evaluate the performance of them. Different from other references, the purpose of this study is to extract knowledge entity which is related to individual stock items. Various but relatively simple data processing methods are applied in the presented model to solve the problems of previous researches and to enhance the effectiveness of the model. From these processes, this study has the following three significances. First, A practical and simple automatic knowledge extraction method that can be applied. Second, the possibility of performance evaluation is presented through simple problem definition. Finally, the expressiveness of the knowledge increased by generating input data on a sentence basis without complex morphological analysis. The results of the empirical analysis and objective performance evaluation method are also presented. The empirical study to confirm the usefulness of the presented model, experts' reports about individual 30 stocks which are top 30 items based on frequency of publication from May 30, 2017 to May 21, 2018 are used. the total number of reports are 5,600, and 3,074 reports, which accounts about 55% of the total, is designated as a training set, and other 45% of reports are designated as a testing set. Before constructing the model, all reports of a training set are classified by stocks, and their entities are extracted using named entity recognition tool which is the KKMA. for each stocks, top 100 entities based on appearance frequency are selected, and become vectorized using one-hot encoding. After that, by using neural tensor network, the same number of score functions as stocks are trained. Thus, if a new entity from a testing set appears, we can try to calculate the score by putting it into every single score function, and the stock of the function with the highest score is predicted as the related item with the entity. To evaluate presented models, we confirm prediction power and determining whether the score functions are well constructed by calculating hit ratio for all reports of testing set. As a result of the empirical study, the presented model shows 69.3% hit accuracy for testing set which consists of 2,526 reports. this hit ratio is meaningfully high despite of some constraints for conducting research. Looking at the prediction performance of the model for each stocks, only 3 stocks, which are LG ELECTRONICS, KiaMtr, and Mando, show extremely low performance than average. this result maybe due to the interference effect with other similar items and generation of new knowledge. In this paper, we propose a methodology to find out key entities or their combinations which are necessary to search related information in accordance with the user's investment intention. Graph data is generated by using only the named entity recognition tool and applied to the neural tensor network without learning corpus or word vectors for the field. From the empirical test, we confirm the effectiveness of the presented model as described above. However, there also exist some limits and things to complement. Representatively, the phenomenon that the model performance is especially bad for only some stocks shows the need for further researches. Finally, through the empirical study, we confirmed that the learning method presented in this study can be used for the purpose of matching the new text information semantically with the related stocks.