• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• 제4A권3호
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• pp.159-166
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• 2004

Forecasting prices in electricity markets is critical for consumers and producers in planning their operations and managing their price risk. We utilize the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) method to forecast the electricity prices in two regions of New York： New York City and Central New York State. We contrast the one-day forecasts of the GARCH against techniques such as dynamic regression, transfer function models, and exponential smoothing. We also examine the effect on our forecasting of omitting some of the extreme values in the electricity prices. We show that accounting for the extreme values and the heteroskedactic variance in the electricity price time-series can significantly improve the accuracy of the forecasting. Additionally, we document the higher volatility in New York City electricity prices. Differences in volatility between regions are important in the pricing of electricity options and for analyzing market performance.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2000년도 추계학술대회 논문집 학회본부 A
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• pp.110-112
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• 2000

This paper presents a basic scheme of the congestion management in the Korea electricity market under the deregulated environment. We investigated some cases of the congestion management in the world and the effects of the congestion management in a real data. A basic idea of the congestion management in the Korea is presented based on the analysis of transmission congestion management in the competitive electricity market.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2001년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.176-178
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• 2001

This paper presents the application draft of ancillary services for Korean Wholesale Electricity Market. This application draft of ancillary services is based on technical rules for ancillary services agreements prepared by KEMA and the present conditions of KEPCO system operations and future directions.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제54권2호
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• pp.79-87
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• 2005

At present Cournot model is one of the most commonly used theories to analyze the gaming situation in oligopoly market. But there exist several problems to apply this model to electricity market. The representative one is to obtain the inverse demand curve able to be induced from the relationship between market price and demand response. In Cournot model, each player offers their generation quantity to accomplish maximum profit, which is accomplished by reducing their quantity compared with available total capacity. As stated above, to obtain the probable Cournot equilibrium to reflect real market situation, we have to induce the correct demand function first of all. Usually the correlation between price and demand appears on the long-term basis through the statistical data analysis (for example, regression analysis) or by investigating consumer utility functions of several consumer groups classified as residential, industrial, and commercial. However, the elasticity has a tendency to change continuously according to the total market demand size or the level of market price. Therefore it should be updated as trading period passes by. In this paper we propose a method for inducing and updating this price elasticity of demand function for more realistic market equilibrium.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제54권1호
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• pp.38-42
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• 2005

Restructuring of the electric power industry has brought the issue of market competitiveness to surface. Recent years have witnessed the appearance of a particular seller or group of sellers exercising market power in electricity supply. In fact, much scholarly work has been done on how to identify and mitigate such abuse by market management rules. In this paper we assess the possible market power on the basis of pivotal supplier test and propose the method to determine the reasonable quantity of long-term contracts which can play a crucial role in mitigating the market power for a pivotal player. Furthermore the market efficiency is guaranteed by making long term contracts with a pivotal player up to the quantity to ensure that the pivotal player has no incentive to abuse the pivotal quantity in the electricity market.

• International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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• 제6권5호
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• pp.639-650
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• 2008

Electricity price forecasting has become an integral part of power system operation and control. In this paper, a wavelet transform (WT) based neural network (NN) model to forecast price profile in a deregulated electricity market has been presented. The historical price data has been decomposed into wavelet domain constitutive sub series using WT and then combined with the other time domain variables to form the set of input variables for the proposed forecasting model. The behavior of the wavelet domain constitutive series has been studied based on statistical analysis. It has been observed that forecasting accuracy can be improved by the use of WT in a forecasting model. Multi-scale analysis from one to seven levels of decomposition has been performed and the empirical evidence suggests that accuracy improvement is highest at third level of decomposition. Forecasting performance of the proposed model has been compared with (i) a heuristic technique, (ii) a simulation model used by Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), (iii) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model, (iv) NN model, (v) Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, (vi) Dynamic Regression (DR) model, and (vii) Transfer Function (TF) model. Forecasting results show that the performance of the proposed WT based NN model is satisfactory and it can be used by the participants to respond properly as it predicts price before closing of window for submission of initial bids.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 제어로봇시스템학회 2005년도 ICCAS
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• pp.1379-1383
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• 2005

Introducing the market into the electricity industry lets the multiple participants get into new competition. These multiple participants of the market need new business strategies for providing value added services to customer. Therefore they need the accurate customer information about the electricity demand. Demand characteristic is the most important one for analyzing customer information. In this study load profile data, which can be collected through the Automatic Meter Reading System, are analyzed for getting demand patterns of customer. The load profile data include electricity demand in 15 minutes interval. An algorithm for clustering similar demand patterns is developed using the load profile data. As results of classification, customers are separated into several groups. And the representative curves for the groups are generated. The number of groups is automatically generated. And it depends on the threshold value for distance to separate groups. The demand characteristics of the groups are discussed. Also, the compositions of demand contracts and standard industrial classification in each group are presented. It is expected that the classified curves will be used for tariff design, load forecasting, load management and so on. Also it will be a good infrastructure for making a value added service related to electricity.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2005년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.168-170
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• 2005

At present Cournot model is one of the most commonly used theories to analyze the gaming situation in oligopoly market. But there exist several problems to apply this model to electricity market. The representative one is to obtain the inverse demand curve able to be induced from the relationship between market price and demand response. In Cournot model, each player offers their generation quantity to accomplish maximum profit, which is accomplished by reducing their quantity compared with available total capacity. As stated above, to obtain the probable Cournot equilibrium to reflect real market situation, we have to induce the correct demand function first of all. Usually the correlation between price and demand appears on the long-term basis through the statistical data analysis (for example, regression analysis) or by investigating consumer utility functions of several consumer groups classified as residential, industrial, and commercial. However, the elasticity has a tendency to change continuously according to the total market demand size or the level of market price. Therefore it should be updated as trading period passes by. In this paper we propose a method for inducing and updating this price elasticity of demand function for more realistic market equilibrium

• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• 제4A권4호
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• pp.262-267
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• 2004

With the advent of electric power systems moving from a vertically integrated structure to a deregulated environment, calculating reactive power service charges has become a new and challenging theme for market operators. This paper examines various methods for reactive power management adopted throughout various deregulated foreign and domestic markets and then proposes an innovative method to calculate reactive power service charges using a reactive power market in a wholesale electricity market. The reactive power market is operated based on bids from the generating sources and it settles on uniform prices by running the reactive OPF programs of the day-ahead electricity market. The proposed method takes into account recovering not only the costs of installed capacity but also the lost opportunity costs incurred by reducing active power output to increase reactive power production. Based on the result of the reactive OPF program, the generators that produce reactive power within the obligatory range do not make payments whereas the generators producing reactive power beyond the obligatory range receive compensation by the price determined in the market. A numerical sample study is carried out to illustrate the processes and appropriateness of the proposed method.

• 플랜트 저널
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.58-66
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• 2011

The power plant companies reached the culmination for growth in the domestic market. Besides, we have faced many challenges such as an electricity opening market trend for overseas, banning the use of coal due to the United nations framework convention on climate change, and the meticulous attention regarding the government's electricity charge plan. On the other hand, the overseas business has been a critical issue since China and many other developing countries expanded their projects abroad. Another factor is that power plant industry is being privatized, and it made the market regulation a bit loose. Thus, the market environment became favorable toward those companies which planned many overseas businesses. In this research, the power plant company's current condition for construction and operation as well as its technical competitiveness were analyzed, and an alternative plan using SWOT analysis for entering an oversea market was made. It dealt with both internal and external factors. Also, examined was the current situation under the power plant industry dealing with restructure for electric industry, lack of fossil fuel, and the United nations framework convention on climate change. From the research, it was suggested that many successful strategies to enter the overseas business by using the market trend I researched.