• Journal of the Korean housing association
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.31-38
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• 2012

In this paper, we draws tendency of the electricity consumption in residential buildings according to inhabitants Composition types and the level of incomes. it is necessary to reduce energy cost and keep energy security through the electricity demand forecasting and management technology. Progressive social change such as increases of single household, the aging of society, increases in the income level will replace the existing residential electricity demand pattern. However, Only with conventional methods that using only the energy consumption per-unit area are based on Energy final consumption data can not respond to those social and environmental change. To develop electricity demand estimation model that can cope flexibly to changes in the social and environmental, In this paper researches propensity of electricity consumption according to the type of residents configuration, the level of income. First, we typed form of inhabitants in residential that existed in Korea. after that we calculated hourly electricity consumption for each type through National Time-Use Survey performed at the National Statistical Office with considering overlapping behavior. Household appliances and retention standards according to income level is also considered.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Architectural Sustainable Environment and Building Systems
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.627-640
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• 2018

Submetering electricity consumption data enables more detail input of end use components, such as lighting, plug, HVAC, and occupancy in building energy modeling. However, such an modeling efforts and results are rarely tried and published in terms of the estimation accuracy of electricity demand. In this research, actual submetering data obtained from a university building is analyzed and provided for building energy modeling practice. As alternative modeling cases, conventional modeling method (Case-1), using reference schedule per building usage, and main metering data based modeling method (Case-2) are established. Detail efforts are added to derive prototypical schedules from the metered data by introducing variability index. The simulation results revealed that Case-1 showed the largest error as we can expect. And Case-2 showed comparative error relative to Case-3 in terms of total electricity estimation. But Case-2 showed about two times larger error in CV (RMSE) in lighting energy demand due to lack of End Use consumption information.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.381-398
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• 2011

Recently, electricity peaks have frequently occurred in winter, and the concerns about failure in power supply are soaring. One of reasons is due to the increase in industrial demand with economic recovery, and the increases in household and commercial demand with unusual cold waves are spotted as a primary cause. Especially, the diffusion of electricity heat pumps (EHP) has led to the rapid increase in commercial electricity demand. The EHP diffusion is mainly associated with low electricity tariff and cheaper heating and cooling costs compared to those of gas-engine heat pumps (GHP). The problem is that distorted electricity tariff and herd behaviour toward heating and cooling devices could bring about nation-wide inefficiencies in resource allocation. The key countermeasures are as follows. The electricity tariff should be readjusted to a realistic level. The tariff scheme should be so modified that consumers rationally respond to the tariff. In addition, one should find ways to effectively manage electricity demand.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.869-876
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• 2012

In this paper, we applied seasonal time series models such as ARIMA, FARIMA, AR-GARCH and Holt-Winters in consideration of seasonality to forecast short-term electricity demand data. The results for performance evaluation on the time series models show that seasonal FARIMA and seasonal Holt-Winters models perform adequately under the criterion of Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE).

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.11-27
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• 2002

This paper is aimed at surveying the method that supports logical and theoretical back grounds of electricity service pricing, to investigate whether the ESPM can reflect comprehensively the various interests of parties and persons concerned with electricity supply and demand, and analyzing the practical applicability of the model in short-term perspectives. The major findings of this study can be summarized as fellows. First, the ESPM explains what process the equilibrium price is attained through, which is the essential concept and object in evaluating the value of public enterprises or utilities and the price of electricity Second, the ESPM provides the logics and methods that can objectify the discrete price by each electricity user. Third, the ESPM presents theoretical logics and practical methods that can calculate the basic price and the variable price per electricity unit which are key concepts in the two-part tariff. Fourth, the ESPM has powerful practical applicabilities in the reasonable electricity pricing and in the explanation for the balance between parties and persons interested with electricity supply and demand.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.55 no.12
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• pp.570-575
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• 2006

This paper develops methodology in order to consider CHP(Combined Heat and Power) capacity in the Basic Plan of Long Term Electricity Supply & Demand. We develop generating cost of CHP considering electric and heat. Also we develop mixed load duration curve which includes the electric load and heat load and then apply CHP capacity to SCM(Screening Curve Method) considering CHP feature. Accordingly, it decide the optimal CHP capacity in the Basic Plan of Long Term Electricity Supply & Demand. Also, We perform the sensitivity analysis according to cost variation.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.349-360
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• 2013

Forecasting the daily peak load for electricity demand is an important issue for future power plants and power management. We first introduce several time series models to predict the peak load for electricity demand and then compare the performance of models under the RMSE(root mean squared error) and MAPE(mean absolute percentage error) criteria.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.43-58
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• 2019

Since 2009, electricity consumption has developed a unique seasonal pattern in South Korea. Winter loads have sharply increased, and they eventually exceeded summer peaks. This trend reversal distinguishes these load patterns from those in the USA and the EU, where annual peaks are observed during the summer months. Using Levene's test, we show statistical evidence of a rise in temperature but a decrease in variance over time regardless of the season. Despite the overall increase in the temperature, regardless of the season there should be another cause of the increased demand for electricity in winter. With the present study using data from 1991 to 2012, we provide empirical evidence that relatively low electricity prices regulated by the government have contributed significantly to the rapid upward change in electricity consumption, specifically during the winter months in the commercial sector in Korea.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2005.11b
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• pp.151-155
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• 2005

An electricity consumption is closely related to the economic growth structure. The change of economic growth structure affects the pattern of electricity consumption widely and severely. This paper gives that the primary changing factors of electricity growth are economic growth, change of industry structure(the change of electricity consumption ratio in case of residential sector), and the effect of electricity saying. It gives a model to analyze the influence of GDP to the change of electricity consumption patterns by sector through the period of pre and post 1998(IMF, financial crisis) to observe the contribution of each factor to the growth of electricity demand. It is anticipated that this study shows the feasible scheme of economic structure to become the developed country.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.365-410
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• 2015

Block-rate structures are widely used in utility-pricing, including the Korean residential electricity sector. In the case of the current pricing structure, Korean citizens are highly concerned about incurring excessive electricity costs. For these reasons, there have been many discussions concerning mitigation of the strict pricing structure. Existing studies on the residential electricity demand function under block-rate structure have the following three issues - the consumer's budget constraint is non-linear, perceived price under block-rate structure is uncertain, block-rate structure has endogeneity in the price variable. In this context, this paper estimates the residential electricity demand function using micro-level household expenditure data and simulates the impact of alternative block-pricing schedules.