• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.223-258
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• 2022

The 2018 local elections completely upended the composition of Busan's city council, with the council membership changing from being solidly and consistently conservative to being over 80% liberal. What explains this anomalous outcome? While existing literature suggests the outcome of the 2018 city council elections was the consequence of a combination of structural and strategic factors, such as the decline of regional voting, we argue that the individual-level evaluation of President Moon Jae-in is one of the primary factors driving this result. Although coattails effects are commonly considered in concurrent national legislative elections, the Presidentialized and nationalized politics of Korea makes it possible for Presidential elections to affect local elections as well. We assess our explanation through an analysis of repeated cross-sectional survey data collected just before the 2018 local elections. The results of the analysis show that support for the Democratic Party is very strongly predicted by individual-level evaluation of President Moon. When considered in the context of the timing of presidential and local elections, the results suggest that Presidential coattail effects are capable of destabilizing established political patterns, such as regional voting, if perhaps only in a sporadic and idiosyncratic fashion, depending on whether or not local elections are held early on in a President's term.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.147-165
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• 1992

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of elections on the Korean economy and their future ramifications. It measures the shocks to the Korean economy caused by elections by taking the average of sample forecast errors from four major elections held in the 1980s. The seven variables' Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model which includes the Monetary Base, Industrial Production, Consumption, Consumer Price, Exports, and Investment is based on the quarterly time series data starting from 1970 and is updated every quarter before forecasts are made for the next quarter. Because of this updating of coefficients, which reflects in part the rapid structural changes of the Korean economy, this study can capture the shock effect of elections, which is not possible when using election dummies with a fixed coefficient model. In past elections, especially the elections held in the 1980s, $M_2$ did not show any particular movement, but the currency and base money increased during the quarter of the election was held and the increment was partly recalled in the next quarter. The liquidity of interest rates as measured by corporate bond yields fell during the quarter the election and then rose in the following quarter, which is somewhat contrary to the general concern that interest rates will increase during election periods. Manufacturing employment fell in the quarter of the election because workers turned into campaigners. This decline in employment combined with voting holiday produce a sizeable decline in industrial production during the quarter in which elections are held, but production catches up in the next quarter and sometimes more than offsets the disruption caused during the election quarter. The major shocks to price occur in the previous quarter, reflecting the expectational effect and the relaxation of government price control before the election when we simulate the impulse responses of the VAR model, imposing the same shocks that was measured in the past elections for each election to be held in 1992 and assuming that the elections in 1992 will affect the economy in the same manner as in the 1980s elections, 1992 is expected to see a sizeable increase in monetary base due to election and prices increase pressure will be amplified substantially. On the other hand, the consumption increase due to election is expected to be relatively small and the production will not decrease. Despite increased liquidity, a large portion of liquidity in circulation being used as election funds will distort the flow of funds and aggravate the fund shortage causing investments in plant and equipment and construction activities to stagnate. These effects will be greatly amplified if elections for the head of local government are going to be held this year. If mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held after National Assembly elections, their effect on prices and investment will be approximately double what they normally will have been have only congressional and presidential elections been held. Even when mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held at the same time as congressional elections, the elections of local government heads are shown to add substantial effects to the economy for the year. The above results are based on the assumption that this year's elections will shock the economy in the same manner as in past elections. However, elections in consecutive quarters do not give the economy a chance to pause and recuperate from past elections. This year's elections may have greater effects on prices and production than shown in the model's simulations because campaigners' return to industry may be delayed. Therefore, we may not see a rapid recall of money after elections. In view of the surge in the monetary base and price escalation in the periods before and after elections, economic management in 1992 should place its first priority on controlling the monetary aggregate, in particular, stabilizing the growth of the monetary base.

• SUVANNABHUMI
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.149-174
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• 2018

Southeast Asians participate in elections eagerly, a fact indexed by the high electoral participation rates across a range of political conditions in the region. What gives elections in Southeast Asia such high legitimacy? Using data from Indonesia and the Philippines, this article emphasizes the need to understand peoples' rationalities, which are informed by meanings generated by prevailing cultural practices. From this perspective, electoralism can be understood as a cultural phenomenon that conforms to the structure of a ritual. Despite the democratic deficit in many electoral exercises, elections share the attractiveness and fun of traditional community festivities. Voters participate in elections as a testament to membership in a community. Although they do not always transform the existing social arrangements, elections embed contradictory impulses in the same way that cockfights do. A procedure of formal democracy authored elsewhere, electoralism has been localized in Southeast Asia and invested with indigenous significance.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.5
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• pp.9-18
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• 2020

The research paper examines the influence of elections on the stock market. The study analyses whether the market reaction would be the same when a party wins and comes to power for the second consecutive time. The study employs Market Model Event study methodology. The sample period taken for the study is 2014 to 2019. A sample of 31 companies listed in Bombay Stock Exchange is selected at random for the purpose of the study. For the elections held in 2014, an event window of 82 days was taken with 39 days prior to the event and 42 days post event. The event (t0) being the declaration of the election results. For the elections held in 2019 an event window of 83 days was taken with 41 days prior to the event and 41 days post event. The results indicate that the market reacts positively with significantly positive Average Abnormal Returns. The findings of the study reveal that the impact on the market is not the same between any two elections even when the same party comes to power for the second time. The semi-strong form of efficient market hypothesis holds true in the context of emerging markets like India.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.20 no.12
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• pp.101-106
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• 2015

This paper suggests heuristic algorithm with polynomial time complexity for rigging elections problem that can be obtain the optimal solution using linear programming. The proposed algorithm transforms the given problem into adjacency graph. Then, we divide vertices V into two set W and D. The set W contains majority distinct and the set D contains minority area. This algorithm applies divide-and-conquer method that the minority area D is include into majority distinct W. While this algorithm using simple rule, that can be obtains the optimal solution equal to linear programing for experimental data. This paper shows polynomial time solution finding rule potential in rigging elections problem.

• American Studies
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• v.42 no.1
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• pp.23-55
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• 2019

Do international economic factors affect the result of gubernatorial elections? This research aims to explain the reasons that local elections are not influenced by international economic factors such as US-China trade dispute. Although previous studies show the mixed results about the relationship between economic factors and gubernatorial electoral outcome, this research argues at least three explanations can be identified. First, there is a perceived gap between the candidates and local voters on the effect of trade disputes. Local voters do not consider the trade dispute as immediate threats, and candidates only use the trade dispute for attacking rivals. Where the functional responsibilities are unclear among elected officials between federal and local government, voters tend to cast votes based on their party identification. In the case of trade policy, functional responsibility is murky between the president and governor; voters may not judge the governor incumbent or candidates on state economic condition.

• Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.241-276
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• 2018

This article measures equal weighted voting to evaluate the fairness of a redistricting system operated in the $4^{th}$ to the $6^{th}$ metropolitan council elections using a new index. The cosine square index using in the article would be useful on what we see the ratio of the equality of population among metropolitan regions and the fairness of the whole electoral system, along with its simple calculation. The results of the fairness of the $4^{th}$ to the $6^{th}$ metropolitan council elections calculated by the cosine square index are as follow: Because the $4^{th}$ metropolitan council election uniformly elects two members for each electoral district regardless of the size of the population, it has a low equality of population between districts. But as a result of the decision of the Constitutional Court in 2007, standard of population variation in electoral district has been strengthened to 4 : 1 from the $5^{th}$ metropolitan council election. It increases significantly equality of population between districts from the $5^{th}$ metropolitan council election. But in the elections from the $4^{th}$ to the $6^{th}$ metropolitan council elections, Rural electoral districts continuously show the lowest equality of population between districts. It also shows the growing disparity between urban and rural areas as well as between capital and non-capital. This paper emphasizes that electoral apportionment in local council elections should reflect regional diversity and community identity.

• Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.53-75
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• 2016

This article presents a descriptive analysis on national security policy platforms promoted by the ruling parties of South Korea during general and presidential elections. National security platforms made during the elections campaigns are a window that allows us to see how the ruling party perceives the threat environment, opportunity-structures, policy preferences and material capabilities faced by the state. South Korea presents a unique case since it faces constant military threats from North Korea and interacts with China and the United States. Therefore, the national security policy platforms, which are explicitly campaigned during the general and presidential elections, showcases the worldview of the ruling party. The study essentially focuses on three areas of the platforms - its threat perception on North Korea, the ROK-US alliance and the future vision for the Korean peninsula by covering two presidential elections and three general elections for the last 20 years.

• Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.5-44
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• 2019

The 2018 midterm elections were considered a referendum for Trump Presidency, especially because Latino community has been feeling that the anti-immigration, anti-Latino policies of Trump administration are harmful to the community. News Media and pundits predicted the boost of the Latino turnout and its positive effects on Democratic candidates at all levels. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of Latino demographics and Latino public opinion and to analyze the election results with exit poll data and actual aggregate data. The data analysis shows that, compared to 2014 midterm elections, Latino turnout and the support for Democratic candidates actually increased in most counties and precincts, which is more salient in the areas with heavy Latino concentration.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.327-349
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• 2008

This essay ascertains the relationship between counter-honeymoon elections and presidential party's electoral advantages. In order to achieve this goal, this study briefly reviews the literature relevant to this subject. And this study empirically tests the impacts of the couter-honeymoon elections on the electoral results by analyzing the official election outcomes in Russia and Colombia. This essay concludes the implications of the study.