U.S.-China Trade Dispute and 2018 US Midterm Elections: Does International Economic Environment Affect the Gubernatorial Election?

미-중 무역 분쟁과 2018년 미국 주지사 선거: 주지사 선거는 국제경제 변화에 영향을 받는가?

Do international economic factors affect the result of gubernatorial elections? This research aims to explain the reasons that local elections are not influenced by international economic factors such as US-China trade dispute. Although previous studies show the mixed results about the relationship between economic factors and gubernatorial electoral outcome, this research argues at least three explanations can be identified. First, there is a perceived gap between the candidates and local voters on the effect of trade disputes. Local voters do not consider the trade dispute as immediate threats, and candidates only use the trade dispute for attacking rivals. Where the functional responsibilities are unclear among elected officials between federal and local government, voters tend to cast votes based on their party identification. In the case of trade policy, functional responsibility is murky between the president and governor; voters may not judge the governor incumbent or candidates on state economic condition.