• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.315-325
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• 2016

Thanks to the advantages of low cost and quick results, public opinion polls on election in Korea have been generally conducted by telephone survey, even though it has critical disadvantage of low response rate. In public opinion polls on election in Korea, the general method to handle nonresponses is adjusting the survey weight to estimate parameters. This study first drives mathematical expression of estimator and its bias with variance estimators with/without nonresponses in election polls in Korea. We also investigates the nonresponse rate of telephone survey on 2012 Korea presidential election. The average response rate was barely about 14.4%. In addition, we conducted a survey in April 2014 on the respondents's attitude toward telephone surveys. In the survey, the first reason for which respondents do not answer on public opinion polls on election was "feel bothered". And the aged 20s group, the most low response group, also gave the same answer. We here suggest that survey researchers motivate survey respondents, specially younger group, to participate surveys and find methods boosting response rate such as giving incentive.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.385-398
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• 2018

This study aims to explore implications by analyzing voters' behaviors and attitudes of political campaigns & political advertising audience in the 19th presidential election. For this purpose, in-depth interviews with 59 voters who voted in the last election were conducted, and interviewees were allocated by their gender and age. As a result, the motivation to ballot for a candidate was based on the candidates' political affiliations to a party, political inclinations, and election pledges. Voters also determined whom they would vote for after watching the final TV debate. The biggest issue of this election was to create jobs in the public sector, an economical issue. TV was the most trusted medium among the voters, and TV debates had the greatest influence in changing the minds of the voters. Voters thought that Shim, Sang Jung was the best on TV debates and that An, Chul Soo was the worst. Also, voters recalled An, Chul Soo the most among all election posters, but they recalled Moon, Jae In the most out of other political advertisement methods. Therefore, the results elucidated the voters' behaviors and the audience's attitudes in political advertising, and this study provided theoretical and practical implications to be utilized in future presidential election campaigns and political advertising endeavors.

• Korean journal of communication and information
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• v.59
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• pp.138-161
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• 2012

This study is designed to explore the function of Twitter as a campaign platform during election campaign. For exploring the function of Twitter the form of tweet, the type of information on tweet and the way of opinion expression via Twitter were discussed by content analysis. This study finds, first, that, netizens express their opoinion of candidates without foundation and with emotional reactions. Second, they showed somewhat conflictive reactions according to their supporting candidates. This study conceptualized various kinds of public as 'blindly support public,' and 'blindly opposition public' in case of Park's supporters, 'rational support public,' and 'critical opposition public' in case of Na's supporters. Third, Park's supporters debated Na candidate's attitude of debate and her appearance blindly without foundation. Na's supporters argued Park's attitude of debate and his ignorance of Seoul Metropolitan government's policy blindly without foundation. Finally, this study discussed the relationship between the political discourse according to netizens' supporting via Twitter and the results of election. Park whose supporters attacked the opposing candidate by blaming her appearance and her attitude of debate won the election. Na didn't overcome her negative images. For her Twitter functioned as a media which is spreading negative factors about her. In conclusion, Twitter as a campaign platform during election times plays a key role in discussing candidates. However, netizens need to express their opinions with foundation and the candidates have to consider negative issue management. This study highlights the importance of peripheral factors which have a decisive effect on the results of election. The results of this study is useful for building political campaign strategy by candidates.

• Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.2873-2881
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• 2018

It is very important to obtain objective and credible information through election polls in order to contribute to the correct voting behavior of the voters or to establish appropriate election strategies for candidates or political parties. Therefore, many related organizations such as political parties, media organizations, and research institutions have been making efforts to improve the accuracy of the results of the polls and the election prediction. Kim et al. (2017) analyzed whether the non-response group responded that there is no support candidate in the election survey to increase the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate. As a result, it has been confirmed that the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate can be significantly improved by performing an appropriate classification on the non-response layer. In this study, we propose a method to estimate the turnout by each strata (sex, age group) under the condition that the total turnout rate is given for a specific district (region) and propose a procedure to predict the vote rate by reflecting the turnout. In addition, case studies were conducted using data gathered through telephone interviews for the 20th National Assembly elections in 2016.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.197-221
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• 2018

The Cambodian People's Party swept all 125 assembly seats with 76.78% of the vote in 2018 general elections. The Cambodian National Rescue Party, having been dissolved by court, was excluded from the election and attempted to nullify the legitimacy of the election by demanding its supporters to boycott the election. The Cambodian People's Party launched a campaign encouraging to vote in a desperate need to thwart the boycott movement. The election then became an unprecedented kind of competition the winner of which is decided not by the percentage of the vote but by turnout. The Cambodian People's Party was the winner with the high turnout of 82.89%, securing the means to defend the legitimacy of the election. The potential supporters of the Cambodian National Rescue Party spread out with about a million voters switching to support the Cambodian People's Party. Over a half million invalid votes that unequivocally voiced opposition to the Cambodian People's Party were not sufficient to deny the legitimacy of the election. Having experienced the fierce competition in the 2013 general elections that threatened to end its rule, the Cambodian People's Party decided to secure its power in the upcoming election and executed a tactic designed to remove the rival party through legal means. Competition being removed, the Cambodian political system decayed back to hegemonic electoral authoritarianism from competitive electoral authoritarianism to which it had mad gradual progress through the general elections in the past.

• Journal of Industrial Convergence
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.53-62
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• 2022

The election broadcast began utilizing virtual studios in the mid-1990s. In 1996, SBS's virtual studio was evaluated as an innovation in Korean broadcasting technology that introduced the world's first virtual studio. However, there have been cases where KBS and MBC named it a virtual studio and used it for election broadcasting. Various CG (Computer Graphics) case studies of election broadcasting have been conducted since the 2000s, but the initial research is inadequate. Therefore, this paper complements existing research by analyzing the cases of the mid-1990s when they actually started using virtual studios. Beginning with SMOCKEY (KBS) and MAGICII (MBC) in 1995, we presented the initial model of the virtual studio, and then with SBS Virtual Studio, each broadcasting company evolved into the names Dream Studio (KBS) and Space 21 Studio (MBC). As a result of the analysis, it was found that the election broadcast is a chart showing the data and the winning prediction, and that the election broadcast was the trigger to compose the story based on the introduction of the virtual studio. It is a form of historical research dealing with the value of the early virtual studios in this paper. It is meaningful to see the process of Remediation.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.161-183
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• 2022

Opinion polls have become a powerful means for election campaigns and one of the most important subjects in the media in that they predict the actual election results and influence people's voting behavior. However, the more active the polls, the more often they fail to properly reflect the voters' minds in measuring the effectiveness of election campaigns, such as repeatedly conducting polls on the likelihood of winning or support rather than verifying the pledges and policies of candidates. Even if the poor predictions of the election results of the polls have undermined the authority of the press, people cannot easily let go of their interest in polls because there is no clear alternative to answer the instinctive question of which candidate will ultimately win. In this regard, we attempt to retrospectively grasp public opinion on the 20th presidential election by applying the 'YouTube Analysis' function of Sometrend, which provides an environment for discovering insights through online big data. Through this study, it is confirmed that a result close to the actual public opinion (or opinion poll results) can be easily derived with simple YouTube data results, and a high-performance public opinion prediction model can be built.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.285-301
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• 2018

There have been many studies that applied a data-driven analysis method to social media data, and some have even argued that this method can replace traditional polls. However, some other studies show contradictory results. There seems to be no consensus as to the methodology of data collection and analysis. But as social media-based election research continues and the data collection and analysis methodology keep developing, we need to review the key points of the controversy and to identify ways to go forward. Although some previous studies have reviewed the strengths and weaknesses of the social media-based election studies, they focused on predictive performance and did not adequately address other studies that utilized social media to address other issues related with public opinion during elections, such as public agenda or information diffusion. This paper tries to find out what information we can get by utilizing social media data and what limitations social media data has. Also, we review the various attempts to overcome these limitations. Finally, we suggest how we can best utilize social media data in understanding public opinion during elections.

• Survey Research
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.23-45
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• 2003

While people with higher education are more likely to vote in most western societies, they are less likely to vote in Korea. To explain this puzzle, this paper introduces new concept of "distrust of the public promise. " With this new concept, this paper contends that in Korea where public promises are so easily broken, those with higher education are more skeptical of the politicians. Based on the various post-election surveys, this paper shows that "distrust of the public promise" leads the more educated people to abstain in the election. By adding rational factors of the voters to the conventional model, this paper proposed a more comprehensive model to explain non-voters in Korea. This paper explains increasing Korean non-voters in terms of rational choice perspective. choice perspective.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.201-238
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• 2012

This study analyses the nexus between political change and development of parliamentary politics in Malaysia. The continued and stable parliamentary politics did not necessarily associated with political development in Malaysia for the last five decades. Except the 1969 general election, the ruling coalition, Barisan Nasional(BN), has never been failed to obtain the two-third majority of parliamentary seats even though there has been regular general elections in every 4-5 years without any interruption. It is, however, worth noting that there has been dramatic political changes since the late 1990s. In particular, the 2008 general election showed the remarkable results, collapsing the two-third majority of BN's parliamentary seats. The opposition parties even took over the 5 state governments out of 12 in total. The more distinguished feature was the emergence of opposition coalition, called Pakatan Rakyak(PR), right after the 2008 general election. It was the first united coalition in Malaysia's modern political history among the severely divided opposition parties. Since its emergence, the PR has initiated various changes leading towards a more active parliamentary politics. In this regards, this study argues that parliamentary politics is no more regarded as a dependent variable in Malaysia's political process.