• Title/Summary/Keyword: Economic spillover

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A Variability Analysis on the Flatfish Production and Revenue using Expectation Hypotheses and GARCH Model

  • Yoon, Hyung-Mo;Yoon, Ji-Young
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2017
  • This work studies the variability of flatfish sales revenue. The theoretical analysis draws functions for equilibrium price and quantity using expectation hypotheses. The functions include unpredictable phenomenon with dummy variable and GARCH. The equilibrium function, using adaptive expectation hypothesis, contains the independent variables of supply and demand, while the equilibrium function, embodying rational expectation hypothesis, includes only the independent variables of supply side, because the demand side disappears by the information extraction process theoretically, if economic subjects build the expectation rational. The empirical analysis shows: the variability of flatfish production has a spillover effect on the variability of revenue with the adaptive expectation hypothesis. In the case when the model has a rational expectation hypothesis, the variability of flatfish production has a spillover effect on the revenue (the mean equation of GARCH model). This study indicates that there is the variability in flatfish production and sales revenue, and the spillover effect between them. The result can help to build of the rational system for the fishery income stability.

Study on Spillover Effect of R&D Investment in Agricultural Sector (R&D 투자의 농업부문 스필오버 효과 연구)

  • Kim, Gi-Hwan;Seo, Byeong-Seon
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.391-408
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the spillover effect of R & D investment focusing on agriculture sector. Therefore, the Korean industry is divided into 18 industries and the data period including 1970 ~ 2014 is analyzed. In addition, the method is based on the analysis of the production function, the growth contribution of the production factor, and the spillover effect of other industries that affect the agricultural output. The results of this study are summarized as follows. First, R & D investment has a positive effect on the production of Korean agriculture. Second, the impact of high tech industry R & D investment on Korean agriculture is positive. Third, the R & D investment in the public sector is relatively higher than the R & D investment in the private sector. In the R & D stage, the R & D investment of the first level technology has a great influence on the production of agriculture. As a result of this study, governments should consider the above mentioned research results to determine resource priorities based on limited resources in relation to R & D investments that contribute to production and economic growth.

Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Islamic Indices

  • AZIZ, Tariq;MARWAT, Jahanzeb;MUSTAFA, Sheraz;KUMAR, Vikesh
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.683-692
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    • 2020
  • The primary purpose of the study is to investigate the volatility spillovers from global economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic factors to the Islamic stock market returns. The study focuses on the Islamic stock indices of emerging economies including Indonesia, Malaysia, and Turkey. The Macroeconomic factors are industrial production, consumer price index, exchange rate. EGARCH model is employed for investigation of volatility spillovers. The results show that the global economic policy uncertainty has a significant spillover effect only on the returns of Turkish Islamic stock index. Similarly, the shocks in macroeconomic factors have little influence on the volatility of Islamic indices returns. The volatility of Indonesian and the Turkish Islamic stock indices returns is not influenced from the fluctuations in macroeconomic factors. However, there is significant volatility spillover only from industrial production to the returns of Malaysian Islamic index. The results suggest that the Islamic stock markets are less likely to influence from the global economic policies and macroeconomic factors. The stability of Islamic stocks provide opportunity for diversification of portfolios, particularly in stressed market conditions. The major price factors of Islamic markets could be firms' specific factors or investors' behaviors. The findings are helpful for policy makers and investors in formulating policies and portfolios.

The Effect of Quantitative Easing on Inflation in Korea

  • Nam, Min-Ho
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.507-529
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    • 2018
  • This paper evaluates the whole impact of quantitative easing on inflation in Korea implemented by the central banks in four major advanced economies, the U.S., Euro Area, U.K. and Japan. According to the analysis employing a VAR-X model with the security holdings of those central banks an exogenous variable, quantitative easing is estimated to exert downward pressures on inflation in Korea. Considering the impulse responses of Korean macroeconomic variables to a quantitative easing shock, the spillover effect is transmitted through exchange rate channel while trade channel turns out to be ineffective. In an additional analysis assessing the impact of each quantitative easing program of the central banks, only those of the Fed and European Central Bank are estimated to be significant. The empirical results prove to be robust even if using long-term interest rates as an alternative indicator of quantitative easing.

Risk Spillover between Shipping Company's Stock Price and Marine Freight Index (해운선사 주가와 해상운임지수 사이의 위험 전이효과)

  • Choi Ki-Hong
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.115-129
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzed the risk spillover of BDI on shipping company stock prices through the Copula-CoVaR method based on daily data from January 4, 2010, to October 31, 2022. The main empirical analysis results and policy implications are as follows. First, copula results showed that there was a weak dependence between BDI and shipping company stock prices, and PAN, KOR, and YEN were selected as the most fitting model for dynamic Student-t copula, HMM was selected as the rotated Gumbel copula, and KSS was selected as the best model. Second, in the results of CoVaR, it was confirmed that the upside (downside) CoVaR was significantly different from the upside (downside) VaR in all shipping companies. This means that BDI has a significant risk spillover on shipping companies. In addition, as for the risk spillover, the downside risk is generally lower than the upside risk, so the downside and upside risk spillover were found to be asymmetrical. Therefore, policymakers should strengthen external risk supervision and establish differentiated policies suitable for domestic conditions to prevent systematic risks from BDI shocks. And investors should reflect external risks from BDI fluctuations in their investment decisions and construct optimal investment portfolios to avoid risks. On the other hand, investors propose that the investment portfolio should be adjusted in consideration of the asymmetric characteristics of up and down risks when making investment decisions.

Economic Spillover Effects of e-Receipts in South Korea (전자영수증 확산의 경제적 파급효과 분석)

  • Jun, Hyo-Jung;Kim, Tae-Sung
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.35-47
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    • 2018
  • An electronic receipt (e-receipt) is a receipt issued electronically in place of a traditional paper receipt. This e-receipt, which can be accessed on a smartphone or online, allows for the exchange of goods, refunds, and other services without a paper receipt. The government is focusing on widespread dissemination of e-receipts to realize a society without paper by 2020. Introduction of the e-receipt has begun in mainly large marts and coffee shops, and recently, major franchise convenience stores. As a result, individual customer's transactions are being converted into electronic transactions, and the payment methods are changing to card-based electronic payment services or prepaid electronic payment services. The number of non-paper commercial transactions are also on the increase. In this paper, we try to identify the e-receipt industry ecosystem by analyzing the industries and markets participating in the process of receipt issuance from the perspectives of storage, management and disposal, and to analyze the domestic industrial and social economic effects expected from the spread of electronic receipts.

A Study on the Spillover Effect of Information between Factors Related to Steel Materials and BCI (제철원료 관련 요인과 BCI 간의 정보전이 효과에 관한 연구)

  • Yo-Pyung Hwang;Ye-Eun Oh;Keun-Sik Park
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.133-154
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    • 2022
  • The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI), which is used as an indicator for marine transportation of steel raw materials, is one of the key economic indexes for managing the risk of loss due to rapid market fluctuations when steel companies establish business strategies and procuring plans for raw materials. Still, the conditions of supply and demand of steel raw materials has been extremely affected by volatility shocks from drastic events like the financial crisis such as the Lehman Brothers incident and changes in the external environment such as COVID-19. And, especially since the 2008 financial crisis, endeavors to predict the market conditions of the steel raw material is becoming more and more arduous for the deepening uncertainty and increased volatility of BCI, which has been used as a leading indicator of the real economy. This study investigates the correlation between the steel raw material market and the marine transportation market by estimating the spillover effect of information between markets. The vector error correction model (VECM) was used to analyze information transfer based on the correlation between the BCI and crude steel production, capesize fleet supply, raw material price, and cargo volume.

Analysis of the Spillover Effect of the Freight Rate Market and Commodity Market Using the Frequency Connectedness Method (주파수 연계성 방법을 적용한 해상운임지수와 상품시장의 전이효과분석)

  • Kim, BuKwon;Won, DooHwan
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.223-242
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzes the spillover effects of returns and volatility between the commodity market and the maritime freight market across various frequency domains (short-term, medium-term, long-term). The key findings of the study can be summarized as follows. First, from the perspective of returns, a high linkage is observed in the short-term between the commodity and maritime freight markets, with the metal commodities market playing a particularly significant role in information transmission effect of return series. Second, in terms of volatility, the total connectedness increases from the short- to the long-term, with substantial long-term risk transmission effects observed especially in the BDI, BDTI, agricultural, and energy commodity markets. Notably, during major global events such as the U.S.-China trade war, COVID-19, and the Russia-Ukraine conflicts, a marked increase in the risk transmission effect in the energy commodities market was identified.

The Impact of College Education in the Korean Economic Growth (경제성장에 있어서 대학교육의 영향)

  • Kim, Seon Jae
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.508-515
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to reanalyze the impact of college education in the Korean economic growth during the period 1971-2017. The study estimates the impacts of monthly average income per worker without college education with respects to the ratio of workers with college education to worker without college education, capital per worker without college education, and the number of patients per worker with college education. The results showed that the effect of the ratio of workers who had college education was 0.433 at 5% of significant level. In addition, it was estimated that the effect of the capital for each worker who didn't have college education was 0.45646 at 1% of significant level. These findings are similar to the results in the previous study of Kim and Lim. Finally, the number of patents per worker who had college education was estimated. Unfortunately, the coefficients on these were not statistically significant except for one period. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a positive spillover effect from the college education in the Korean economic growth.

Information Transmission Between NYSE Listed Chinese ADRs and Their Underlying Shares (뉴욕증시의 중국 ADR과 원주사이의 정보전이효과)

  • Kim, Kyung-Won;Choi, Joon-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.171-187
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    • 2006
  • This paper investigates the pricing information transmission between NYSE listed Chinese ADRs and their underlying shares by using GJR. The data in this study consist of daytime and overnight returns on 7 chinese stocks End their ADRs on the NYSE for the period from December 2002 to december 2005. We have round that the home market leadership hypothesis can be applied to the Chinese stocks. We have also found that return spillover effect is stronger than volatility spillover effect.

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