• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.41-62
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• 2013

This paper, the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in the financial systems of emerging markets mid-to long-term impact on how investigated. The accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in emerging markets is a highly effective means to prevent the recurrence of another financial crisis as well as to minimizing risks of financial crisis. By examining the economic effects of excessive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves on factors such as foreign liabilities, domestic consumption, domestic investment and economic growth from a mid-to long-term perspective, it reduced domestic consumption, but on the other hand, led to the expansion of the trade-related industries based on increase of exports. Although China implements a policy to substantially increase domestic investment, other emerging market countries have stagnant domestic investment activities due to excessive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. Such fact signifies that excessive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves increases potential risks by depressing the mid-to long-term economic growth through the scale down of trade-related industries.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.77-97
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• 2010

Recently, countries on the Caspian Sea were had heavily interested due to instability of international resource market. These countries having been developed basing on energy exports, especially Kazakhstan have drastically grown during a decades. However economy, heavily relied on the exports of energy, is influenced on fluctuation in the international energy price as well as sometimes exposed at Dutch disease. These days, Kazakhstan, increased trade and investment with Korea, has been on the rise as new supplier for energy. Therefore, economic change in Kazakhstan can be an important issue. In this paper, we analyze relations among oil price, interest rate, and real exchange rate during sample period from January 1999 to December 2008 expanding Balasa-Samuelson model. Empirical results present that oil price, interest rate, and real exchange rate mutually keep their balance. Eventually, we find out Kazakhstan has exposed at Dutch disease since oil price and interest rate have negative impacts on real exchange rate respectively.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.337-370
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• 2018

This paper discusses the design of monetary policy in a New Keynesian small open economy framework by introducing nominal wage rigidities and incomplete exchange rate pass-through on import prices. Three main findings are summarized. First, with the existence of an incomplete exchange rate pass-through and nominal wage rigidities, the optimal policy is to seek to minimize the output gap, the variance of domestic price and wage inflation, as well as deviations from the law of one price. Second, the CPI inflation targeting Taylor rule is welfare enhancing when there is a technological shock to the economy. The exception occurs when there is a foreign income shock, which minimizes welfare losses under the domestic inflation targeting Taylor rule. Last, two stylized Taylor rules turn out to be a bad approximation, but the modified Taylor rules that respond to the unemployment gap rather than the output gap are a closer approximation to the optimal policy.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.31-59
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• 2020

China's increasing trade volume and continuous integration with global financial markets have strengthened the influences of the renminbi on the exchange rates of different currencies. Previous studies find closer co-movements between the renminbi and other currencies. This paper is novel to investigate the underlying determinants of the co-movement further, using panel data of over thirty-four countries. Our results show that stronger bilateral trade and financial linkages with China have a positive association with the currency co-movement. Moreover, countries with greater flexibility in exchange rate regimes show stronger co-movements. These findings imply that growing co-movements are the consequence of autonomous decisions at the market rather than that of management by governments or central banks.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.1-21
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• 2015

Recently, many companies have launched a new business model related to the mobile gift service in order to achieve or sustain a competitive advantage in the fast-growing mobile market. Due to the well combination of mobile technology advantages and offline gift-giving motivations, a mobile gift service has been proliferating over recent years. Although the motivation of mobile gift purchasing behavior can be different from that of offline gift purchasing behavior, there is still a lack of research on what factors are influencing and how they are impacting mobile gift purchasing behavior under diverse gift-giving settings. Therefore, based on both exchange and motivation theories as well as literature review, this study identified three influencing factors-economic (immediate rewards, convenience), social (friendship needs, reputation), and personal (enjoyment, self-satisfaction) benefits-and validated their impacts on intention to repurchase a mobile gift. Moreover, the moderating roles of intimacy and gift price in the relationships between benefits and mobile gift repurchasing intention were examined. The results provide many implications for marketing managers on how to enhance consumers' intention to repurchase, which in turn leads to sales and increased profit.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.61
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• pp.165-190
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• 2014

The purpose of this study is to measure the trade insurance's macroeconomic effects by analyzing the causality between major economic variables(GDP per capita, market interest rate, inflation, unemployment rate, exchange rate) and trade insurance variable. I conducted empirical analyses using First-difference GMM(Generalized Method of Moments), System GMM and Panel-VAR Model, with panel data from 11 countries(Korea, United States, Japan, BRICs, Indonesia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam) between 1992 and 2011. There are several important findings. Above all, Trade insurance is positively and significantly related to GDP. This results show that trade insurance serves to increase economic growth. In other words, trade insurance leads to economic growth by helping increase GDP per capita. Especially, trade insurance negatively related to unemployment rate, it is for sure that trade insurance contribute to decrease unemployment rate. And trade insurance helps control of inflation. It is also confirmed that trade insurance contributes to price stability, which in turn serves to stabilize the overall economy. And this research finds as uncertainty in the market increases, seen it as increase of exchange rate, increasing trade insurance supply is stabilize the exchange rate.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.83-93
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• 2020

Rural areas have been faced with various problems such as aging and population decline, and in these circumstances, the activation of local communities is suggested as a solution. Agricultural producer organizations are a powerful means of maintaining rural society. The purpose of this study is to understand the characteristics of agricultural community activities by region by comparing the status of organization and activities and analyzing Location Quotient(LQ) based on the regional survey data in the 2015 census of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. As the results of the analysis, it was found that 38.35% of villages participated in economic organizations and 32.22% of villages were having urban-rural exchange activities. The crop clubs were actively operated in the Gyeongsangbuk province, and other economic organizations were organized in Jeju, Haenam-gun, and Dangjin-si more than other regions. And the urban-rural exchange activities were found in Chungcheongnam province mainly. The results of detailed LQ analysis by organization and activity showed that specialized regions for each community or activity were different. These results could be used for regional planning or the establishment of strategies for community activation.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.191-209
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• 2022

This paper is a review of studies that focus on the prediction of a won/dollar exchange rate before and after the covid 19 pandemic. The Korea economy has an unprecedent situation starting from 2021 up till 2022 where the won/dollar exchange rate has exceeded 1,400 KRW, a first time since the global financial crisis in 2008. The US Federal Reserve has raised the interest rate up to 2.5% (2022.7) called a 'Big Step' and the Korea central bank has also raised the interested rate up to 2.5% (2022.8) accordingly. In the unpredictable economic situation, the prediction of the won/dollar exchange rate has become more important than ever. The authors separated the period from 2015.Jan to 2022.Aug into three periods and built a best fitted ARIMA/ARDL prediction model using the period 1. Finally using the best the fitted prediction model, we predicted the won/dollar exchange rate for each period. The conclusions of the study were that during Period 3, when the usual relationship between exchange rates and economic factors appears, the ARDL model reflecting the variable relationship is a better predictive model, and in Period 2 of the transitional period, which deviates from the typical pattern of exchange rate and economic factors, the SARIMA model, which reflects only historical exchange rate trends, was validated as a model with a better predictive performance.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.931-954
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• 2003

It is widely recognized that economic time series involved not only the linearities but also the non-linearities. In this paper, when the economic time series data have the nonlinear characteristics we propose the forecasts method using combinations of both forecasts from linear and nonlinear models. In empirical study, we compare the forecasting performance of 4 exchange rates models(AR, GARCH, AR+GARCH, Bilinear model) and combination of these forecasts for dairly Won/Dollar exchange rates returns. The combination method is selected by the estimated individual forecast errors using Monte Carlo simulations. And this study shows that the combined forecasts using unrestricted least squares method is performed substantially better than any other combined forecasts or individual forecasts.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.7
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• pp.197-203
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• 2022

The agricultural sector has an important contribution to the economic development of Vietnam in particular and other countries in general. The growth of enterprises in the industry is an important bridge in promoting the economic development of the country. Currently, the policies of the Government of Vietnam always create favorable conditions for enterprises to conduct business, especially enterprises in the agricultural sector. The study aims to assess factors influencing the profitability of listed firms in Vietnam's stock market. Using 40 enterprises in the agricultural industry listed on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange and the Hanoi Stock Exchange and using advanced econometric modeling, dealing with defects in the regression model, the research results show that large-scale firm has higher economic efficiency than small-scale firm. In addition, a firm with higher use of loan capital is associated with a more efficient firm, reflected in the relatively good debt management ability of enterprises in the agricultural sector. Adversely, growth and age do not have any impact on firm performance. Macroeconomic factors do not impact profitability. Finally, the study has some policy implications for developing agricultural businesses in the case of Vietnam.