• Title/Summary/Keyword: Economic estimate

Search Result 1,172, Processing Time 0.024 seconds

Applying System Dynamics Model to Estimate the Effects of Healthy City Policies on Reducing Social Cost (시스템다이내믹스 기법을 이용한 건강도시화 정책의 사회적비용 절감효과 분석)

  • Kim, Eun Jung;Kim, Young-Pyo
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
    • /
    • v.13 no.3
    • /
    • pp.23-46
    • /
    • 2012
  • The purpose of this paper is to estimate effects of healthy city policies on reducing social costs. The analyses were dune at the cities, counties, and communities levels in 2009, and covered Seoul Metropolitan Area(SMA). For estimation of reducing social costs, it developed a system dynamics(SD) model that analyzed causal relationships between physical inactivity rates, the number of deaths, medical expenses, and total social costs. Simulation period of SD was from 2009 to 2030. Three alternatives were proposed with combinations of length of bike lanes, number of bus routes, crime rates, self-reported good health status rates, and obesity rates. The total estimated cost of physical inactivities from 2009 to 2030 was 31.9 trillion won from the future forecast without policies. As a result of simulations with three alternatives, there were economic benefit approximately from 119.7 billion won to 1.16 trillion won. This study contributed to better understanding the economic benefits of healthy cities that were associated with design of built environment and physical activity. It also emphasized the importance of healthy cities planning as one of national welfare polices.

  • PDF

Mixture Model with Survey and a Statistical Model (서비스 수요조사와 분류모형을 이용한 수요예측)

  • Kim, Youn-Jong;Kim, Yong-Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.21 no.1
    • /
    • pp.151-157
    • /
    • 2008
  • In generally, we use a method of the survey to forecast the economic demands and non-economic demands for a market trend. But we have a difficult problem to estimate the demand for the marketplace objectively because the survey with the non-response and the inadequate understanding on questionnaires did not provided the strong and uniform forecast. Here, we proposed a method compounded of survey and a statistical model to estimate the demand for the marketplace and discussed the mixture model applied to the service demand on an agency.

Estimating the Economic Value of Ecotourism in Anmyeondo Tidal Wetlands Using the Contingent Valuation Method (조건부가치측정법을 이용한 안면도갯벌의 생태관광에 대한 경제적 가치추정)

  • Pyo, Hee-Dong;Chae, Dong-Ryul
    • Ocean and Polar Research
    • /
    • v.26 no.1
    • /
    • pp.77-86
    • /
    • 2004
  • The paper is to estimate the economic value of ecotourism in Anmyeondo tidal wetlands using a double-bounded dichotomous choice (DBDC) model of the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM). For the reliability and the validity of CVM a survey was conducted for 511 visitors by personal interview method in Anmyeondo during August 2000, and respondents were asked for maximum Willingness-To-Pay (WTP) to buy a ticket fer the tidal flat's ecotourism. Overall, respondents answered that they would be willing to pay 55,879 won for a ticket under the study. All equations and results estimated are statistically significant at the 1% or 5% level. For the aggregation of WTP estimates, the sample values are extended to the total annual number of visitors in Anmyeondo area during 1998. A conservative estimate, which considers the calibration factor (0.5) recommended by NOAA (1994) and a positive response rate (83.17%), is 73 billion won.

Estimating the Impact of Trade Cost on Export: A Case Study Vietnam

  • Tu, Mai Thi Cam;Giang, Huynh Thi Thuy
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.5 no.3
    • /
    • pp.43-50
    • /
    • 2018
  • The paper aims to investigate the impact of trade cost on export: A Case Study Vietnam. The study conducts a static linear panel data analysis on annual data covering bilateral export between Vietnam and 70 major importers of Vietnam from 2001 to 2013. The gravity model has been one of the most successful applications in empirical trade. In this paper we apply the gravity model to estimate the impact of trade cost on Vietnamese bilateral export value. The paper uses gravity model to estimate the impact of trade cost on Vietnamese bilateral export value. The empirical results derive from a static linear panel data analysis (fixed effects model) indicates that trade cost plays a crucial role in determining the export value that occurs between Vietnam and trading partners. Besides, population of importing country, trade openness of importing country, gross domestic product of importing country and gross domestic product of Vietnam are also significant determinants of Vietnamese bilateral export value. The main findings indicates that trade cost plays a very important role in the Vietnamese bilateral export performance. This suggests that the Vietnamese government should attempt to improve domestic trade costs to enhance competitiveness and increase export growth sustainably.

Estimation of Genetic, Phenotypic and Environmental Trends in Hariana Cattle

  • Singh, K.;Sangwan, M.L.;Dalal, D.S.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
    • /
    • v.15 no.1
    • /
    • pp.7-10
    • /
    • 2002
  • The breeding data relating to Hariana herd spread over 18 years (1979-96) were analysed to estimate genetic, phenotypic and environmental changes in characters of economic importance which might have taken place during the several years of selective breeding practiced in the herd. The average genetic changes in a given character were estimated by four methods. The phenotypic trends observed for different economic traits were not significant. On changing the method of estimation, magnitude and direction of genetic trends changed. Comparison of estimates of genetic trends by different methods showed that adjustments for biases due to non-random allotment of dams with respect to their age and merit suggested by Powell and Freeman (1974) were useful for increasing the precision of the estimates. Hence, this method was found to be the best method for estimation of genetic trends. The estimate of genetic trends by this method were 4.03${\pm}$6.21 days, 3.24${\pm}$5.33 kg, 0.15${\pm}$0.43 days, 0.09${\pm}$0.59 days, 0.01${\pm}$0.02 kg and 0.01${\pm}$0.01 kg for age at first calving, first lactation milk yield, first lactation length, first calving interval, first lactation milk yield per day lactation length and first lactation milk yield per day of calving interval, respectively.

A Case Analysis of the Economic Impact on Accidents during Excavation (터파기 공사 사고의 경제적 영향 사례분석)

  • Go, Kwang-Ro;Lee, Ghang;Choi, Myung-Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
    • /
    • 2008.05a
    • /
    • pp.7-10
    • /
    • 2008
  • As the land price in the downtown area increases, buildings are becoming bigger, deeper and higher. Consequently, the importance of underground construction has increased. Although construction engineers make every effort to complete underground construction without any problem, construction failures like landslides and the collapse of a retaining wall occur because of the uncertainty of the soil conditions as well as the unexpected risks of excavation work. In order to prevent potential excavation accidents, it is essential to understand the causes and impacts of such accidents. However, there are only a few examples of construction failures, which show the economic impact on accidents during excavation because of the sensibility of the information. This paper presents two cases of excavation accidents, which were investigated by construction insurance company. The compensation for the accidents paid by the insurance company was compared with the estimated costs calculated based on the estimation method for excavation accidents proposed by our previous study. The comparison results showed that the estimate calculated by our method was much less than the actual compensation because the estimate solely focused on the construction costs whereas the compensation included other external factors.

  • PDF

Selection of Priority Areas Based on Human and Economic Risk from Exposure to Fine Particles in Seoul (서울 대기 중 미세 먼지 노출로 인한 위해도에 근거한 우선 관리 지역 선정 -이론적 사망 위해도 및 손실비용을 근거로-)

  • Kim Ye-Shin;Lee Yong-Jin;Shin Dong-Chun
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
    • /
    • v.19 no.1
    • /
    • pp.49-58
    • /
    • 2004
  • It is important to select a risk based priority area for environmental policy formation and decision-making. We estimated the health risks and associated damage costs from exposure to fine particles and assigned priority areas for twenty -five districts in Seoul. In order to estimate the theoretical mortality incidence of the health risk, baseline risks were estimated from mortality rates in two low level areas of fine particles, Seocho Gu and Cheju city To estimate the damage cost from the risk estimates, we investigated and estimated the willingness to pay (WTP) for specific risk reduction. We assumed two different locations as the reference area, Cheju city as Scenario I and Seocho gu as Scenario II. From the results, the five districts, Kwangjin, Chungnang, Kangbuk, Nowon, and Kangnam, ranked high in the categories of both health risk and economic risk. Damage costs were over twenty billion won in each of these districts. As there are uncertainties in these results, the parameter values such as PM$_{2.5}$ level, dose -response slope factor, baseline risk, exposure population and WTP should be continuously validated and refined.d.

Competition and Efficiency : Evidence from the Korean Electricity Market (경쟁이 효율성을 증가시키는가 : 전략산업 구조개편을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Dae-Wook
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
    • /
    • v.17 no.1
    • /
    • pp.23-49
    • /
    • 2008
  • In this paper, we estimate whether changes in the economic environment a firm operates in affects technical efficiency. Since efficiency gains can manifest themselves in a variety of ways, we estimate for efficiency gains on annual generating plants input demand for expenses and fuel use. We find that generating plants reduced their workers and costs respectively by 6.8% in 1999 and 37.9% in 2001. However, they didn't show any systematic caloric consumption changes facing various economic environmental shocks. These results suggest that restructuring brought efficiency gains by replacing regulated monopoly with a more competitive firms in the context of the Korean electricity market.

  • PDF

A Study on the Rates of Return to Education (우리나라의 교육투자 수익률 분석에 관한 연구)

  • 현창우
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
    • /
    • v.18 no.36
    • /
    • pp.349-363
    • /
    • 1995
  • The purpose of the study was to estimate and analyze the rates of return to educational investment. The study was designed to estimate the social and private rates of return to educational investment by school level and sex in order to measure education's economic value with a viewpoint of human capital theory. The produced result of this study are as follows. The social rates of return to education turned out to be male high school 7.94%, male junior college 3.74%, male university 8.50% female high school 4.30%, female junior college 10.11%, female university 6.92%. The private rates of return to education turned out to be male high school 8.41%, male junior college 3.39%, male university 8.38%, female high school 7.90%, female junior college 10.34%, female university 7.33%, In order to measure economic value of educational investment, rates of return to education were compared with those to physical capital investment. Social rates of return to education turned out to be profitable for female junior college, while for private rates of return to education turned out to be profitable in all school levels except for male junior college.

  • PDF

Using Balanced Scorecard to Explore Learning Performance of Enterprise Organization

  • Chiu, Chung-Ching;Tsai, Chih-Hung;Chung, Yi-Chan
    • International Journal of Quality Innovation
    • /
    • v.8 no.1
    • /
    • pp.40-75
    • /
    • 2007
  • In the early industrial age which with high intensity of machine and labor, using financial measurement index was good enough to tie in company's mechanization and philosophy of management and been in efficiency. But being comply with "New Economic age," a new economic environment is full of knowledge and information, the enterprise competition had changed from tangible assets, plants to intangible innovation ability of knowledge. As recognizing the new tendency by enterprise, they value gradually the growth and influence from learning. Practice of organization learning not only needs firm structure and be in coordination with both hardware and software, but also needs an affect measurement model to offer enterprise to estimate learning performance. It's a good instrument of financial performance measure mold in the past years, But it's for measuring the past, couldn't formulate enterprise trend to future, hard to estimate investment for future, such as development of products, organization learning, knowledge management etc, as which intangible assets and knowledge ability just the key factors of being win around competition environment in the future. In 1992, Kaplan and Norton brought up Balance Scorecard (BSC) on Harvard Business Review, as an instrument helping enterprise to measure performance, which is being considered to be a most influence management instrument. It added non-financial index such as customer, internal process and learning growth besides traditional financial index, as offering enterprise an index to measure and manage intangible assets and intellectual property. As being aware of organization learning is hard to be ignored in the new economic age, this research is based on learning and growth of BSC, and citing one national material company try to let the most difficult measurement performance of organization learning, to be estimate through BSC, analyze of factor and individual case, to discuss the company how to make the related strategy and vision of organization learning to develop learning and growth of the structure of BSC, subject the matter of out put factors to be discussed, and measure the outcomes as a result of research. The research affect offers (1) the base implement procedure of carrying out BSC; (2) the reference of formulating measurement index while enterprise using BSC to estimate performance of organization learning; (3) the possibility bottleneck maybe forcing while carrying out BSC, to be an improvement or preventive for enterprise.