• Title/Summary/Keyword: Economic assessment

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A Recidivism Prediction Model Based on XGBoost Considering Asymmetric Error Costs (비대칭 오류 비용을 고려한 XGBoost 기반 재범 예측 모델)

  • Won, Ha-Ram;Shim, Jae-Seung;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.127-137
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    • 2019
  • Recidivism prediction has been a subject of constant research by experts since the early 1970s. But it has become more important as committed crimes by recidivist steadily increase. Especially, in the 1990s, after the US and Canada adopted the 'Recidivism Risk Assessment Report' as a decisive criterion during trial and parole screening, research on recidivism prediction became more active. And in the same period, empirical studies on 'Recidivism Factors' were started even at Korea. Even though most recidivism prediction studies have so far focused on factors of recidivism or the accuracy of recidivism prediction, it is important to minimize the prediction misclassification cost, because recidivism prediction has an asymmetric error cost structure. In general, the cost of misrecognizing people who do not cause recidivism to cause recidivism is lower than the cost of incorrectly classifying people who would cause recidivism. Because the former increases only the additional monitoring costs, while the latter increases the amount of social, and economic costs. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an XGBoost(eXtream Gradient Boosting; XGB) based recidivism prediction model considering asymmetric error cost. In the first step of the model, XGB, being recognized as high performance ensemble method in the field of data mining, was applied. And the results of XGB were compared with various prediction models such as LOGIT(logistic regression analysis), DT(decision trees), ANN(artificial neural networks), and SVM(support vector machines). In the next step, the threshold is optimized to minimize the total misclassification cost, which is the weighted average of FNE(False Negative Error) and FPE(False Positive Error). To verify the usefulness of the model, the model was applied to a real recidivism prediction dataset. As a result, it was confirmed that the XGB model not only showed better prediction accuracy than other prediction models but also reduced the cost of misclassification most effectively.

A Study on the Directions of Sewol Ferry Tragedy Memorial Park Based on the Analysis on Social Discourse and Recognition Evaluation (도심형 메모리얼파크의 사회적 담론 및 인식분석을 통한 4·16 세월호 참사 추모공원 방향성 제안 연구)

  • Kim, Do-Hun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.48 no.6
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    • pp.25-38
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    • 2020
  • The objective of this study is to propose a direction for creating a memorial park for the 250 students victims of the Sewol ferry disaster. To this end, this study first attempted to understand the matters discussed at various levels to create a memorial park and find a way that the park can be built by gathering opinions from the bereaved families and the victims themselves, as well as local residents, and experts. Workshops, competitions, special lectures, and websites, etc, were analyzed. A social discourse analysis methodology was used for systematic analysis, and the analyzed discourse was categorized into 4 types for assessment, and the functions and roles were subdivided into 15 types. To assess the priorities and the adequacy of the discourse, an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used among 30 activists, public servants, and experts. Then, a survey was conducted to analyze the perception of the residents (467 participants including the bereaved families) about the memorial park. Based on the results of the analysis, two directions were set for the memorial park. First, is a memorial park to remember the victims in everyday life. It must be a park with various cultural contents instead of a conventional memorial park that is solemn and grave sharing anguish and sorrow. The memorial park for the Sewol ferry disaster must become a space where visitors can naturally encounter and remember the victims. Second, is a park that serves as a catalyst that brings change and innovation to the community. It must be able to bring change to the community with direct and indirect influence. It must serve as an impetus to bring change and innovation to the community in the mid-to-long-term. Having many visitors may also lead to an economic effect. These visitors may not just stay in the park, but even contribute to revitalizing the local businesses. The purpose of this study is to apply the research findings to guide the International Design Competition scheduled for 2020 and serve to establish guidelines for a continuous park management system.

The Path Formation of Thailand's Electricity/Energy Regime and Sustainability Assessment (태국 전력/에너지 체제의 경로 형성과 지속가능성 평가)

  • EOM, Eun Hui;SHIN, Dong Hyuk
    • The Southeast Asian review
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.1-40
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    • 2017
  • This study aims to examine the electricity/energy regime of Thailand, the largest energy-hungry country in the Mekong region. This study examined how the electricity/energy regime of Thailand has been shaped and changed up to the present, not only at the national level but also at the sub-regional level covering the Mekong region. Meanwhile, according to the Paris Agreement in 2015, which will get in to effect from 2020, developing countries as well as developed countries have been given voluntary responsibilities and reduction obligations in response to global climate change. Under the post 2020 Climate Change Regime, Thailand also needs to revise its existing electricity/energy policy. We reviewed the recent energy policy of Thailand and evaluated the possibility of transition to a sustainable energy system based on Energy Trilemma's analysis framework. And we examined the roles and impacts of the Thai civil society on the national power and energy planning as well as in the future climate change policy. As a result of the analysis, it can be seen that Thailand's electricity/energy regime has grown rapidly through the support of the West countries under the Cold War era. In particular, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand(EGAT) played the key role in Thailand's energy policy. In addition, Thailand's geopolitical location and relatively high economic level compared to neighboring countries will continue to be of importance in the future construction of power grids in the region. Meanwhile, in the frame of Energy Trilemma, Thailand has still been vulnerable to environmental sustainability. Thai NGOs have resisted to as well as collaborated with the government to influence the existing electricity/energy policy in the various dimensions but their influence has weakened considerably since the coup in 2014. In conclusion, this study suggests to cooperate with government as well as civil society for sustainable energy transformation of Thailand and Mekong region.

Counter-Piracy Cooperation to Strengthen New Southern Policy's "Peace": An Analysis of ROK and ASEAN's Counter-Piracy Practices (신남방정책의 "평화"를 강화하기 위한 해적행위 대응 협력: 한국과 아세안의 해적행위 대응 관행 분석)

  • Boo, Yerin;Kim, Sujin;Yeo, Mathew Jie Sheng
    • Maritime Security
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.141-185
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    • 2021
  • The growing U.S.-China rivalry has placed the countries of Southeast Asia in exceedingly precarious positions. The Republic of Korea (ROK) likewise has been tasked with the challenge of "navigating the waters" between deepening geopolitical divides. It is in this context that the "New Southern Policy" (hereafter NSP) has become a key word in Korea's foreign policy circles. Through NSP, ROK aims to diversify its economic and security interests by strengthening ties with its southern partners, focusing on three key areas (termed as the "3 Ps"): People, Prosperity, and Peace. At the same time, the NSP seeks cooperation with other key diplomatic agendas such as the U.S.'s "Free and Open Indo-Pacific," rendering it crucial for the overall stability of the region. Considering such strategic significance, deeper analysis of the policy is more timely than ever. A brief assessment of the policy's outcome so far, however, reveals that relatively, the "Peace" pillar has been insufficient in achieving satisfactory outcomes. Here, this paper asks the question of: 1) How can the "Peace" pillar of South Korea's New Southern Policy be strengthened? Based on an analysis on the causes of the "Peace" pillar's weakness, this paper identifies counter-piracy cooperation as a solution. This paper then proceeds to answer the next question of: 2) How can ROK and ASEAN cooperate on counter-piracy, and how can these efforts be integrated into ROK's NSP? To answer the above question, this paper conducts in-depth case studies on ASEAN's and ROK's approaches to counter-piracy and identifies specific mechanisms of cooperation. In Chapter I, the paper begins with an overview of the NSP's strategic significance and an evaluation of its "Peace" pillar. Chapter II conducts a literature review on the causes of, and prescriptions for, the weakness of the "Peace" pillar. The paper then justifies why counter-piracy may be a solution. Chapter III examines ASEAN's and ROK's approaches to counter-piracy. By analyzing the general framework and each region's cases, the paper displays the strengths and weaknesses of each region's piracy responses. Based on this analysis, Chapter IV suggests ways to incorporate counter-piracy cooperation into the "Peace" pillar of the NSP. This research bears significance in that it identifies a specific area of cooperation (counter-piracy) to strengthen the "Peace" pillar of ROK's NSP. Such identification is based on a comprehensive study into the two parties' past and current experience in counter-piracy, making it contextual in nature. Furthermore, the study suggests practical mechanisms of cooperation, and considers ways of incorporation into the existing framework of NSP. This approach differs from existing literature that failed to generate case-specific, policy-oriented solutions. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated piracy issues and deepened geopolitical divides. Turbulent seas such as these call for careful navigation. When it comes to promoting "peace," the key lies in combating the pirates that sail those very waters.

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Assessment of CO2 Fertilization Captured in Thermoelectric Power Plant on Leafy Vegetables Grown in Greenhouse (화력발전소 포집 CO2를 이용한 시설 엽채류 시비효과 평가)

  • Jeong, Hyeon Woo;Hwang, Hee Sung;Park, Jeong;Yoon, Seong Ju;Hwang, Seung Jae
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.423-431
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    • 2022
  • Due to increase of interest in 'carbon neutrality', attempts at agricultural use of CO2 are increasing. In this study, we used the dry-ice made by CO2 as by-product in thermoelectric power plant on CO2 fertilization for production of leafy vegetable in greenhouses. The dry-ice was supplied on three leafy vegetable farms (Allium tuberosum Rottl. ex Spreng, Aster scaber, and Oenanthe stolonifera DC.) located in Hadong, Gyeongsangnamdo. Two greenhouses were used in each leaf vegetable crops, one greenhouse used as the control (non-treatment), other greenhouse used as supplied CO2. For CO2 fertilization, a gas sublimated from dry ice was supplied to the greenhouse using a specially designed prototype supply machine. A. tuberosum greenhouse has no difference of CO2 concentration between the control, and CO2 fertilization and shown high CO2 concentration both greenhouses. However, the CO2 concentrations in A. scaber and O. stolonifera greenhouses were increased in CO2 fertilization treatment. The growth of A. scaber and O. stolonifera were increased in CO2 fertilization, and the yield also increased to 36% and 25% than the control, respectively. As a result of economic analysis, the A. scaber has increase of income rate, however A. tuberosum and O. stolonifera has decreased income rate. Thus, the use of the dry-ice made by CO2 as by-product in thermoelectric power plant has possibility to increase productivity of the leafy vegetable in greenhouse and have agricultural use value.

A Cross-Temporal Meta-Analysis of Korean College Students' Self-Efficacy, 1999-2022 (한국 대학생들의 자기효능감에 대한 시교차적 메타분석, 1999-2022)

  • Sujin Cho;Hyekyung Park
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.361-404
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    • 2023
  • This study utilized a cross-temporal meta-analysis to explore shifts in self-efficacy levels among Korean college students from 1999 to 2022. We expected that increases in authoritative parenting styles, narcissism levels among students, and individualism in Korea might have positively influenced the self-efficacy of college students over the years. Conversely, growing economic disparities, decreasing class mobility, and the increasing instability of job markets might have had negative effects on self-efficacy. To investigate this, we analyzed 293 self-efficacy studies involving Korean college students published between 1999 and 2022, encompassing a total of 88,904 participants. Our criteria included studies that used the three most prevalent self-efficacy scales in Korea, focused solely on Korean college students, were cross-sectional with a one-time self-efficacy measurement, and provided essential statistics for our analysis. The results indicated no significant change in the self-efficacy levels of Korean college students over the observed period from 1999 to 2022. Additionally, we examined correlations between self-efficacy and various social indicators from different time points (20, 15, 10, and 5 years prior, as well as the year of data collection). Findings revealed that both birth rate and consumer price fluctuation rate were consistently negatively correlated with self-efficacy, while gross national income was positively correlated. This study is the first to assess Korean college students' self-efficacy levels using a cross-temporal meta-analysis, offering foundational knowledge for implementing such analytical methods for subsequent research and providing an indirect assessment of the generational gap theory. Finally, the limitations of the study and the direction for future research were discussed.

Comparative Study on Perceived Effectiveness of Suncheon Bay International Garden Expo - 2013 and 2023 with a Focus on Visitors - (순천만국제정원박람회 개최효과 인지 비교 연구 - 2013, 2023년 방문객을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Tai-Won;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2023
  • By comparing and analyzing the effects of the 2013 Suncheon Bay International Garden Expo and the 2023 Suncheon Bay International Garden Expo, designated as Korea's first national garden, this study aims to present basic data for the future operation direction and sustainability strategy. First, in both fairs, satisfaction throughout the event was high, 4.0 or higher. In particular, the satisfaction level of the 2023 Suncheon Bay International Garden Expo was higher than that of the 2013 Suncheon Bay International Garden Expo. As the longest international event held since the COVID-19 pandemic, it reflected the citizens' demand for healing and recharging in natural spaces. Second, as a result of comparing the types of perceptions that affected satisfaction, it was found that economic, environmental, and ecological types commonly affected satisfaction at the 2013 and 2023 Suncheon Bay International Garden Expo. The 2013 Suncheon Bay International Garden Expo established the brand value as an "ecological city" by creating a garden in the city center along with an ecological resource called Suncheon Bay. In addition, the 2023 Suncheon Bay International Garden Expo expanded the scope of the garden to the entire city center. It also attempted to create a city where humans and nature coexist by realizing values, such as responding to climate change and carbon neutrality. In other words, one of the ways to secure urban competitiveness is to attract corporate investment and tourists and build a differentiated brand in Suncheon by promoting the 2023 fair based on the potential ecological values of the region after the 2013 Suncheon Bay International Garden Expo. Therefore, if the Suncheon Bay International Garden Expo continues to develop environmental and ecological content and programs in line with changes in society and tries to establish itself in citizens' perception through cooperation with local governments and residents, it will be able to establish its identity and brand power.

Comparative Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis Response Capacities by Countries (코로나19 팬데믹 위기 대응 역량의 국가별 비교분석)

  • Yoon Hyeon Lee
    • The Journal of Korean Society for School & Community Health Education
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.59-70
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    • 2024
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study is to analyze each country's infectious disease response capacities and, based on this, find areas for improvement in Korea's infectious disease management response. Methods: First, the capacity to respond to the COVID-19 infectious disease was analyzed by country using the SPAR scores of 96 countries around the world released by WHO in 2022. Second, we analyzed each country's specific COVID-19 quarantine performance using Our World in Data and the Global Health Security Index (GHSI). Results: First, the quarantine intensity index on January 24, 2021 was the highest in the Southeast Asia branch at 67.6, which had strong quarantine measures, and the lowest at 44.5 in the Africa branch. As of December 31, 2022, the quarantine intensity index in Europe was significantly lowered to 11.6. Second, the factor that influenced the SPAR indicator on the total number of patients per million population was national laboratory (C4), p=.027, and the factor that influenced the total number of deaths per million population was infection prevention and control (C9), p=.005., Risk Communication and Community Participation (C10) p=.040. The influential factor on GDP per capita was infection prevention and control (C9) p=.009, and the influential factor on GHSI was infection prevention and control (C9) p=.002. Conclusion: The research findings indicate that it was difficult to find a correlation between the SPAR, which is each country's self-assessment of their infectious disease capacities, and the number of COVID-19 cases or the intensity of pandemic responses. However, mortality rates, as well as factors such as the Global Health Security Index (GHSI) and national income, appear to be somewhat influenced. For future improvements in infectious disease management and response in our country, it is necessary to develop pandemic strategies that can reduce socio-economic costs based on more scientific and reliable data like JEE or GHSI, especially in preparation for potential unknown emerging infectious diseases. Based on this, proactive decision-making led by a control tower of experts and effective health communication are also required to respond to public health crises at a national level.

The Factors Affecting on the Franchisor's Performance and Its Intention of Recontracting with Franchisees : Focused on the Chinese Franchise Market (프랜차이즈 본부의 성과 및 재계약의도에 영향을 미치는 요인들에 관한 연구 : 중국프랜차이즈 시장을 중심으로)

  • Shuai, Su;Seo, Sang-Yun;Lee, Hoon-Yong
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2012
  • Franchises have recently emerged as the most rapidly expanding industry positioned to create a large impact in the domestic economic. The Chinese franchise industry developed rapidly in the period prior and subsequent to WTO accession with more than 50% of new franchises brands emerging since 2000. M&A transactions in the Chinese franchise industry have progressed actively. In the period from 2005-2007, due to the wholesale and retail market opening in accordance with the guidelines laid forth within the MOU by the WTO the Chinese franchise market is now the largest market in the world all despite a short history of only 20 years. The amount of franchise market research on China is disproportional to its current size and development potential. Beginning in the 1990s, market research conducted by the International Franchise Association focused on emerging markets in Eastern Europe and China. While the research dealt with the Chinese investment environment, it insufficiently explained the market region and cultural environment. The purpose of this research is (i) to investigate the determinants of the performance of franchise systems in China and (ii) new contract renewals based on performance factors. This study will complement existing research in terms of the franchisee perspective. This study may also prove of the benefit to the franchise companies entering the Chinese franchise market enabling them to develop an effective strategy. This study shows that support, incentives, and system standardization by franchisor yielded a positive effect on management performance. This is consistent with previous studies by Shin (2000) and Kim (2008) targeting Korean franchises. Therefore, in the Chinese market, the franchisor must focus on support, incentives, and system standardization rather than concentrate only on the recruitment of franchisees in order to improve revenue. Hypotheses regarding franchisor control have been dismissed in existing research, in the opinion of this study, due to their complexity and inability to control the merchant as a one-kind-assessment-standard. Our findings show that the franchisees' financial condition, management ability and entrepreneurial spirit, among franchisee's characteristics, have a positive effect on franchisor's business performance and satisfaction for the franchisee. This is consistent with previous studies on headquarters' management performance of Lussier (1996), Heo and Jang (2008), and franchisees' financial condition, management ability and entrepreneurial spirit effect on franchisor's satisfaction of Weaven and Franzer (2007), Kim (2009), Han (2009), and Yoon etc. (2008). Therefore, when permitting a franchisee, financial condition, management ability, entrepreneurship of the franchisee should be carefully considered. Among relational factors between franchisor and franchisee, trust has the positive influence on the management performance of the franchisor while conflict has a negative effect. However, trust, commitment and conflict factors have been shown not to have any impact on the satisfaction of the franchise headquarters. This result is consistent with the previous studies of Pavlou and Ba (2000), Morrison (1999), Weaven and Frazer (2007), Kim and Park (1994), Sohn (2007) which show that trust between franchisor and the franchisees have a positive effect and that conflict has a negative impact on franchisor's management performance. Other factors causing a negative effective on the franchisor's management performance are a rapid environmental changes and uncertainty in the business. This is consistent with Campbell et al (2007), Kim and Kim (2009), Han and Baek (2008). Finally, the high management performance and satisfaction of the franchise headquarters has a positive effect on the intention of franchise renewal. In the case of large markets such as China, the franchisor's strategy and the role is very important. In this study, we also investigated the characteristics of franchisor and franchisee, relationship, and environmental uncertainty affecting on the management performance and satisfaction of franchisor. Recently, Korean franchises are attempting to enter foreign markets through the rise in popularity of Korean culture and entertainment commonly referred to as the Korean wave. This study provides recommendations for Korean franchises intending on entering the Chinese market. First, in order to achieve stable profits, the franchise corporation needs to support the operation of the individual franchisee through incentives and standardization of services. Second, because trust between the franchisor and franchisee has a positive effect on management performance, on-going discussion and cooperation is necessary to reduce the level of conflict.

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Bone mineral density and nutritional state according to milk consumption in Korean postmenopausal women who drink coffee: Using the 2008~2009 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (한국 폐경 후 여성 커피소비자에서 우유섭취여부에 따른 골밀도와 영양상태 비교 : 2008~2009년 국민건강영양조사 자료 이용)

  • Ryu, Sun-Hyoung;Suh, Yoon Suk
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.347-357
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: This study investigated bone mineral density and nutritional state according to consumption of milk in Korean postmenopausal women who drink coffee. Methods: Using the 2008~2009 Korean National Health & Nutrition Examination Survey data, a total of 1,373 postmenopausal females aged 50 yrs and over were analyzed after excluding those with diseases related to bone health. According to coffee and/or milk consumption, subjects were divided into four groups: coffee only, both coffee & milk, milk only, and none of the above. All data were processed after application of weighted values and adjustment of age, body mass index, physical activity, drinking, and smoking using a general linear model. For analysis of nutrient intake and bone density, data were additionally adjusted by total energy and calcium intake. Results: The coffee & milk group had more subjects younger than 65 yrs and higher education, urban residents, and higher income than any other group. The coffee only group showed somewhat similar characteristics as the none of the above group, which showed the highest percentage of subjects older than 65 and in a lower education and socio-economic state. Body weight, height, body mass index, and lean mass were the highest in coffee & milk group and lowest in the none of the above group. On the other hand, the milk only group showed the lowest values for body mass index and waist circumference, whereas percent body fat did not show any difference among the groups. The coffee and milk group showed the highest bone mineral density in the total femur and lumbar spine as well as the highest nutritional state and most food group intakes, followed by the milk only group, coffee only group, and none of the above group. In the assessment of osteoporosis based on T-score of bone mineral density, although not significant, the coffee and milk group and milk only group, which showed a better nutritional state, included more subjects with a normal bone density, whereas the none of the above group included more subjects with osteoporosis than any other group. Conclusion: Bone mineral density in postmenopausal women might not be affected by coffee drinking if their diets are accompanied by balanced food and nutrient intake including milk.