• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.23-48
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• 2021

The Korean economy has achieved continuous economic growth for the past several decades thanks to the government's export strategy policy. This increase in exports is playing a leading role in driving Korea's economic growth by improving economic efficiency, creating jobs, and promoting technology development. Traditionally, the main factors affecting Korea's exports can be found from two perspectives: economic factors and industrial structural factors. First, economic factors are related to exchange rates and global economic fluctuations. The impact of the exchange rate on Korea's exports depends on the exchange rate level and exchange rate volatility. Global economic fluctuations affect global import demand, which is an absolute factor influencing Korea's exports. Second, industrial structural factors are unique characteristics that occur depending on industries or products, such as slow international division of labor, increased domestic substitution of certain imported goods by China, and changes in overseas production patterns of major export industries. Looking at the most recent studies related to global exchanges, several literatures show the importance of cultural aspects as well as economic and industrial structural factors. Therefore, this study attempted to develop a forecasting model by considering cultural factors along with economic and industrial structural factors in calculating the import volume of each country from Korea. In particular, this study approaches the influence of cultural factors on imports of Korean products from the perspective of PUSH-PULL framework. The PUSH dimension is a perspective that Korea develops and actively promotes its own brand and can be defined as the degree of interest in each country for Korean brands represented by K-POP, K-FOOD, and K-CULTURE. In addition, the PULL dimension is a perspective centered on the cultural and psychological characteristics of the people of each country. This can be defined as how much they are inclined to accept Korean Flow as each country's cultural code represented by the country's governance system, masculinity, risk avoidance, and short-term/long-term orientation. The unique feature of this study is that the proposed final prediction model can be selected based on Design Principles. The design principles we presented are as follows. 1) A model was developed to reflect interest in Korea and cultural characteristics through newly added data sources. 2) It was designed in a practical and convenient way so that the forecast value can be immediately recalled by inputting changes in economic factors, item code and country code. 3) In order to derive theoretically meaningful results, an algorithm was selected that can interpret the relationship between the input and the target variable. This study can suggest meaningful implications from the technical, economic and policy aspects, and is expected to make a meaningful contribution to the export support strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises by using the import forecasting model.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.263-285
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• 2011

Despite the process of neoliberalization has made a decisive influence on our society as a whole, there seems little interests in neoliberal urbanization and entrepreneurial urban projects promoting it. This study is to see relationships between neolibealization process and recent urbanization and urban policies in terms of entrepreneurial city mediating them. In particular, this paper tries to reconceptualize entrepreneurial city as corresponding to privatization and commodification, financialization, state redistribution, and management and manipulation of crises which Harvey(2005) suggests as four main features of neoliberalization process in general and 'accumulation by dispossession' in particular, and to characterize it in terms of 'creative destruction' and of 'entrepreneurial governance'. As examined in the later part of this paper, recent cases of these entrepreneurial urban projects in S. Korea include volatility of land and housing price in the Capital region and urban regeneration and newtown projects, project for free economic zones construction in Incheon and other 5 regions, project for SOC construction heavily relying on private investment, in particular project financing pursued nationwidely including Daegu, and project of urban cultural marketing to promote capital inflow tacitly as well as to enhance urban imagine explicitly.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.97-114
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• 2018

The East Asian region, an important part of Korea's imports and exports, is expected to grow further driven by the geographical, political, economic, social, and cultural complementarity. With the recent increase in imports and exports, the port trade volume between Korea and East Asian countries is also growing. However, due to various factors, such as economic size, growth rate, port infrastructure level, and geographical location of these countries, the volume of traffic with these ports is fluctuating. Despite much research on the volatility of port trade volume and changes in port network, this study tries to supplement the gap in a more detailed study of ports in Korea and East Asia since these kinds of studies are limited. The purpose of this study is to analyze the trend of distribution routes of export container cargo among ports in Korea and to present policy and practical implications of Korean trading companies, shipping companies, logistics companies, and port authorities. This study analyzes the variability of the trade volume between Korea's major ports and Daedong. Results show that Shanghai, Ningbo, Ho Chi Minh, and Haiphong were the most important factors in terms of size and volume increase. In terms of ports, the Busan port is the port responsible for trades with Yantai, Weihai, Hakata, Kobe, Ho Chi Minh, and Haiphong; Incheon port deals with Lianyungang, Tianjin, Osaka, Kobe, Ho Chi Minh, Haiphong; Gwangyang port trades with Tianjinxingang, Weihai, Yokohama, Mihn and Tanjong, and Ulsan port is strategically important for the Yantai, Lianyungang, Nagoya, Kobe, Ho Chi Minh and Portkelang ports. Therefore, the Korean government, port authorities, and shipping and logistics companies need to strengthen logistic network cooperation with these ports and actively promote investments in them.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.763-776
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• 2020

Onions show severe volatility in production and price because crop conditions highly depend on the weather. The government has designated onions as a sensitive agricultural product, and prepared various measures to stabilize the supply and demand. First of all, preemptive and reliable information on predicting onion production is essential to implement appropriate and effective measures. This study aims to contribute to improving the accuracy of production forecasting by developing a model to estimate the final weight of onions bulb. For the analysis, multi-level model is used to reflect the hierarchical data characteristics consisting of above-ground growth data in individual units and meteorological data in parcel units. The result shows that as the number of leaf, stem diameter, and plant height in early May increase, the bulb weight increases. The amount of precipitation as well as the number of days beyond a certain temperature inhibiting carbon assimilation have negative effects on bulb weight, However, the daily range of temperature and more precipitation near the harvest season are statistically significant as positive effects. Also, it is confirmed that the fitness and explanatory power of the model is improved by considering the interaction terms between level-1 and level-2 variables.

• Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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• v.47 no.1
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• pp.143-160
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• 2017

Since officially assessed land price system was introduced, it has functioned as the criterion for establishing and implementing real estate policies. However, there is a controversial issue about the adequacy of the officially assessed land price system. The problem is that it is difficult to establish a statistical model due to too many land characteristics. Also, local economy, macroeconomic environments and development plans are not reflected in the land price evaluation model. Considering longitudinal and cross-sectional variables, a two-way error component panel model was used in this study. This analysis model includes variables reflecting land characteristics, macroeconomic volatility, and development project. The Paju LCD Industrial Complex was selected as a analysis area and an empirical analysis was performed. According to the analysis, the number of significant land characteristic variables were 14(31%) under 5% significance level. Macroeconomic volatility has had an influence on the land price and year variable reflecting development project has consistently been significant since the industrial complex was designated. Therefore, this study suggests that the land price evaluation model should be improved by simplifying land characteristic variables and including macroeconomic and regional economic variables.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.645-668
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• 2022

Hydrogen energy is emerging as an important means of carbon neutrality in the various sectors including power, transportation, storage, and industrial processes. Fuel cell power plants are the fastest spreading in the hydrogen ecosystem and are one of the key power sources among means of implementing carbon neutrality in 2050. However, high volatility in system marginal price (SMP) and renewable energy certificate (REC) prices, which affect the profits of fuel cell power plants, delay the investment timing and deployment. This study applied the real option methodology to analyze how the dual uncertainties in both SMP and REC prices affect the investment trigger price level in the irreversible investment decision of fuel cell power plants. The analysis is summarized into the following three. First, under the current Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), dual price uncertainties passed on to plant owners has significantly increased the investment trigger price relative to one under the deterministic price case. Second, reducing the volatility of REC price by half of the current level caused a significant drop in investment trigger prices and its investment trigger price is similar to one caused by offering one additional REC multiplier. Third, investment trigger price based on gray hydrogen and green hydrogen were analyzed along with the existing byproduct hydrogen-based fuel cells, and in the case of gray hydrogen, economic feasibility were narrowed significantly with green hydrogen when carbon costs were applied. The results of this study suggest that the current RPS system works as an obstacle to the deployment of fuel cell power plants, and policy that provides more stable revenue to plants is needed to build a more cost-effective and stable hydrogen ecosystem.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.41-63
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• 2017

FDI can either be absorbed in the production cycle with domestic investment and create an inducement effect or it can remain as an exogenous factor and increase the volatility of GDP. The purpose of this paper is to research these different impacts that FDI could have. For that, the endogenous growth theory was employed. The statistic method used are the panel model for sectoral analysis, and GARCH model and VAR for time series analysis. Myanmar was selected as this paper's research subject because it is one of countries which had a colossal amount of FDI inflow recently. The panel analysis did not confirm the causality between sectoral FDI and sectoral GDP. The reason for this could be in the lack of data, since sectoral data exists yearly only during 2006-2016. Therefore this study conducted the times series analysis. According to the results, during 2006 until 2010, it showed signs of GARCH but the effect of FDI on GDP was nonexistent, which means FDI was not integrated into the domestic production cycle but stayed in residual terms. During 2011 to 2016, FDI seemed to affect the growth of Myanmar's GDP. The estimation confirmed the existence of GARCH and the Granzer causality test confirmed that FDI influenced the GARCH, which signified FDI increased the volatility of GDP. The VAR analysis showed responses of GDP to FDI was small(about 0.0007). This research assumes that FDI can be divided in two parts: one part which can be assimilated in the domestic production cycle and the other where it stays outside of the production cycle. The former creates production inducement effect and the latter only increases the volatility of GDP. According to this study, the latter outweighs the former impact in Myanmar.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.606-609
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• 2008

Traditionally, the feasibility of the private investment is determined by NPV(Net Presented Value) based on DCF(Discounted Cash Flow) and the volume of government's subsidiary without quantifying the effect of overturn share ratio and MRG(Minimum Revenue Guarantee), these variables which can seriously effect on the economic feasibility. One of the most important reasons why these variables are not underestimated is that the quantifying methods are insufficiently or so complicatedly studied to apply practically the real project. Therefore, this study suggests the modified binominal option model to estimate the overturn share ratio and MRG and estimates how much these variables impact the private investment. Also, these results are helpful to estimate how much the government's subsidiary can be reduced.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.29-52
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• 2012

During the global financial turmoil in 2007-2008, deviation from the covered interest parity (CIP) between the Korean won and US dollar through the foreign exchange swap has escalated in its magnitude beyond 1,000bp in November 2008, and it still persists around 100bp level. In this paper, we examine a newly developed margin based asset pricing model using Kalman filter approach and show that the escalation of the CIP deviation is found to be significantly related to the global dollar funding illiquidity and country-specific funding conditions. Furthermore, we find evidence that the poor funding conditions (or higher margins) are driven by the general money market illiquidity and may lead to higher funding illiquidity, which suggests the reinforcing effects of the liquidity spiral. We also show that the supply of dollar liquidity and improved funding conditions help alleviate the deviations from the parity, however the persistent anomaly is found to be related to the high level of volatility in the FX swap market.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.177-196
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• 2007

This paper investigates the cyclical patterns of buffer capital using an unbalanced panel data for the banks in 30 OECD countries and 7 non-OECD Asian countries. We test whether the relationships between buffer capital and business cycle are systematically different across country groups controlling for other potential determinants of bank capital. We find that the correlation is positive for developed countries while it is negative for Asian developing countries. These findings suggest that, once Basel II is implemented, developing countries are more likely to observe an increase in output volatility. We then review the policy recommendations to mitigate the procyclicality problem of Basel II.