• Title/Summary/Keyword: Economic Risk

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Corruption Risks in the System of Providing Economic Security of the State

  • Pinchuk, Vitaliy;Shaposhnykova, Iryna;Kuvakin, Serhiy;Kozak, Kateryna;Popova, Liubov;Lopashchuk, Inna
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2022
  • At the current stage of globalization and European integration of Ukraine, the aspects related to the effective fight against corruption in the system of economic security of our country are receiving more and more attention, as they become a prerequisite for continuing reforms based on international funding. In order to consider this issue and solve this problem, the necessary step is to develop and implement real mechanisms of the system for detecting and preventing corrupt behavior, which are based on international anti-corruption standards. The leading component of this system is the management of corruption risks in the system of economic security in order to identify them and implement measures to reduce them. This study analyzes the corruption perception index in Ukraine in recent years, which showed a positive, albeit somewhat slow dynamics of its growth, indicating a gradual increase in overcoming corruption through the introduction of a number of anti-corruption measures and changes. It is proved that the current stage of socio-economic development of the country contributes to strengthening the processes of combating corruption and preventing corruption risks, creating an effective and efficient anti-corruption system of the state. The concept of "corruption" was studied, it was found that in the field of public administration it is considered from different positions and is closely related to the concept of "corruption risks". The essence and features of corruption risks are studied, the preconditions of their occurrence are formulated, the relationship between the causes of corruption risks and economic security in the field of public authority has been established. The system of corruption risk management is considered and its components are characterized. It is proposed to increase the effectiveness of anticorruption policy through the implementation of measures aimed at investigating the causes of corruption risks, as well as developed effective and effective means of reducing corruption risks within the system of economic security

Application to the Stochastic Modelling of Risk Measurement in Bunker Price and Foreign Exchange Rate on the Maritime Industry (확률변동성 모형을 적용한 해운산업의 벙커가격과 환율 리스크 추정)

  • Kim, Hyunsok
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.99-110
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    • 2018
  • This study empirically examines simple methodology to quantify the risk resulted from the uncertainty of bunker price and foreign exchange rate, which cause main resources of the cost in shipping industry during the periods between $1^{st}$ of January 2010 and $31^{st}$ of January 2018. To shed light on the risk measurement in cash flows we tested GBM(Geometric Brownian Motion) frameworks such as the model with conditional heteroskedasticity and jump diffusion process. The main contribution based on empirical results are summarized as following three: first, the risk analysis, which is dependent on a single variable such as freight yield, is extended to analyze the effects of multiple factors such as bunker price and exchange rate return volatility. Second, at the individual firm level, the need for risk management in bunker price and exchange rate is presented as cash flow. Finally, based on the scale of the risk presented by the analysis results, the shipping companies are required that there is a need to consider what is appropriate as a means of risk management.

Comparative risk analysis for priority ranking of environmental problems in Seoul

  • Kim, Ye-Shin;Lee, Yong-Jin;Park, Hoa-Sung;Lim, Young-Wook;Shin, Dong-Chun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society of Environmental Toocicology Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.169-169
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    • 2003
  • In Korea, there is no CRA studies and has not well known CRA and not well established their methodologies. Therefore, objectives of this study is to establish the framework of CRA consisting of health risk, economic risk and perceived risk and the detail methodologies of three main component of estimating and comparing those risks for on the three environmental problems of air pollution, indoor air pollution and drinking water contamination which being subjective to the eight sub-problems of hazardous ai. pollutants (HAPs), regulated pollutants (representative as PM10) and Dioxins (PCDDS/ PCDFs) in air pollution, and indoor ai. pollutants (IAPs) and Radon in indoor air pollution, and drinking water pollutants (DWPs), disinfection-by- products(DBPs) and radionuclides in drinking water contamination in Seoul, Korea. And then, their problems set priorities by individual and integrated risk. As a results, ranking of health risk were the following order of indoor air pollution, air pollution and then drinking water contamination, in three environmental problems and of radon, PM10, IAPs, HAPs, DWPs, Dioxins, DBPs, and then radionuclides in eight sub-problems. And that of economic risk were the same order. In the contrary, ranking of perceived risk were the following order of air pollution, drinking water contamination, and then indoor air pollution, and of HAPs, Dioxins, radionuclides, PM10, DWPs, IAPs, Radon and then DBPs.

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A Study on the Trade Insurance System through Risk Management of Trade Payment of Korea's Export and Import Manufacturing Companies (한국수출기업의 무역대금결제의 위험관리에 따른 무역보험제도에 관한 실증적 연구)

  • Kim, Chang Bong;Park, Se Hwan;Kwon, Seung Ha
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.213-236
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    • 2017
  • World trade has entered a stagnant state, protection trade measures are spread due to delayed economic recovery in developed countries, sluggish investment in emerging economies such as China, economic recession in resource exporting countries, and geopolitical and political uncertainties along with the election period in the US and other major industrialized countries. Thus, in the economic structure of our country with a focus on export, for small and medium enterprises to grow, efforts for having various markets are necessary. The importance of the trade insurance system, which can support the risk management of enterprises, is emphasized by the fact that the majority of SME exporters have a risk management level and a lack of corporate capacity to enter the global market. This study was surveyed with 87 small and medium export companies in South Korea. The purpose of this study is to verify the effect relationship how service quality of trade insurance and utilization of trade insurance impact on the risk management of trade payment and export performance. The research hypothesis and model was derived from the basis of existing theory and empirical research, and obtained the following results. Firstly, Service Quality of Trade Insurance showed positive (+) effect on Export Performance. Secondly, Utilization of Trade Insurance showed positive (+) effect on Risk Management of Trade Payment. Thirdly, Risk Management of Trade Payment showed positive (+) effect on Export Performance. This study is differentiated from previous research information by empirically evaluating the relationship between the risk management of trade payment and export performance through utilization of trade insurance. This study contributed to academic by examining the research on the risk management of trade insurance and also practically suggested the direction how small and medium export company is to take the advantage of the trade insurance.

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The impact of market fear, uncertainty, stock market, and maritime freight index on the risk-return relationship in the crude oil market (시장 공포, 불확실성, 주식시장, 해상운임지수가 원유시장의 위험-수익 관계에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Ki-Hong
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.107-118
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    • 2022
  • In this study, daily data from January 2002 to June 2022 were used to investigate the relationship between risk-return relationship and market fear, uncertainty, stock market, and maritime freight index for the crude oil market. For this study, the time varying EGARCH-M model was applied to the risk-return relationship, and the wavelet consistency model was used to analyze the relationship between market fear, uncertainty, stock market, and maritime freight index. The analysis results of this study are as follows. First, according to the results of the time-varying risk-return relationship, the crude oil market was found to be related to high returns and high risks. Second, the results of correlation and Granger causality test, it was found that there was a weak correlation between the risk-return relationship and VIX, EPU, S&P500, and BDI. In addition, it was found that there was no two-way causal relationship in the risk-return relationship with EPU and S&P500, but VIX and BDI were found to affect the risk-return relationship. Third, looking at the results of wavelet coherence, it was found that the degree of the risk-return relationship and the relationship between VIX, EPU, S&P500, and BDI was time-varying. In particular, it was found that the relationship between each other was high before and after the crisis period (financial crisis, COVID-19). And it was found to be highly associated with organs. In addition, the risk-return relationship was found to have a positive relationship with VIX and EPU, and a negative relationship with S&P500 and BDI. Therefore, market participants should be well aware of economic environmental changes when making decisions.

Drought risk assessment considering regional socio-economic factors and water supply system (지역의 사회·경제적 인자와 용수공급체계를 고려한 가뭄 위험도 평가)

  • Kim, Ji Eun;Kim, Min Ji;Choi, Sijung;Lee, Joo-Heon;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.8
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    • pp.589-601
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    • 2022
  • Although drought is a natural phenomenon, its damage occurs in combination with regional physical and social factors. Especially, related to the supply and demand of various waters, drought causes great socio-economic damage. Even meteorological droughts occur with similar severity, its impact varies depending on the regional characteristics and water supply system. Therefore, this study assessed regional drought risk considering regional socio-economic factors and water supply system. Drought hazard was assessed by grading the joint drought management index (JDMI) which represents water shortage. Drought vulnerability was assessed by weighted averaging 10 socio-economic factors using Entropy, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). Drought response capacity that represents regional water supply factors was assessed by employing Bayesian networks. Drought risk was determined by multiplying a cubic root of the hazard, vulnerability, and response capacity. For the drought hazard meaning the possibility of failure to supply water, Goesan-gun was the highest at 0.81. For the drought vulnerability, Daejeon was most vulnerable at 0.61. Considering the regional water supply system, Sejong had the lowest drought response capacity. Finally, the drought risk was the highest in Cheongju-si. This study identified the regional drought risk and vulnerable causes of drought, which is useful in preparing drought mitigation policy considering the regional characteristics in the future.

Credit Risk Measurement Practices in Indian Commercial Banks - An Empirical Investigation

  • Arora, Swaranjeet
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.37-50
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    • 2014
  • Banking institutions have been facing variety of difficulties but the major cause of serious banking problems relates to lax credit standards for borrowers and counterparties, poor portfolio risk management, or a lack of attention to changes in economic or other circumstances that can lead to deterioration in the credit standing of a bank's counterparties. Although credit risk is an important factor that financial institutions should cope with, but the determinants of measuring credit risk have been studied less. This paper attempts to explore the determinants of credit risk measurement and to identify the factors that contribute to credit risk measurement practices in Indian banks and to compare credit risk measurement practices followed by Indian public and private sector banks, the empirical study has been conducted and views of employees of various banks have been tested using statistical tools. This study explored the phenomenon from different perspectives and revealed that single-name credit risk measurement and portfolio credit risk measurement are the key components that contribute to credit risk measurement in Indian banks. From the descriptive and analytical results, it can be concluded that Indian banks efficiently measure credit risk. The results also indicate that there is a significant difference between the Indian public and private sector banks in single-name credit risk measurement while, these banks do not significantly differ in portfolio credit risk measurement aspect.

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A Case Study of Economic Analysis on R&D Investment (R&B 투자에 대한 경제성 분석의 사례연구 - 초전도 한류기 개발을 중심으로 -)

  • 조현춘;김재천;박상덕
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.159-177
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    • 1998
  • Although each company is trying to develop an economic analysis model with its own particular style or format, the appropriate method is not yet developed because there are many problems to be solved such as uncertainity of outcomes and intangible benefits of technology. The purpose of tris paper therefore is to suggest an economic analysis methodology, which reflects the complexity and the risk of R&D investment, through a case study on the development of a superconductor fault current limiter. A self-developed Monte Carlo simulation program utilized as a main tool in this paper was very useful for risk analysis of R&D investment which could not be solved in the previous DCF(Discounted Cash Flow) model. We also introduce learning effect to consider the intangible benefits such as Know-How obtained from R&D execution. The expected value and its probability distribution for R&D investment can be obtained by combining the Monte Carlo method with the decision tree approach. This result is helpful in judging the priority and the resource-allocation of R&D projects. It is however necessary to develop more precise model for quantifying the technology stock and the simulation program using the continuous probability distribution in expected values to improve the reliability of economic analysis on R&D projects.

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