• Title/Summary/Keyword: Economic Risk

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Hydrological drought risk assessment for climate change adaptation in South Korea (기후변화 적응을 위한 우리나라 수문학적 가뭄 위험도 평가)

  • Seo, Jungho;Chi, Haewon;Kim, Heey Jin;Kim, Yeonjoo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.6
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    • pp.421-435
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    • 2022
  • As natural disasters have been increasing due to climate change, sustainable solutions are in need to alleviate the degree of drought hazard, assess and project the drought influence based on future climate change scenarios. In assessing drought risk, socio-economic factors of the region must be considered along with meteorological factors. This study categorized drought hazard, exposure, and vulnerability as three major components of drought risk according to the Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC) risk assessment framework, and selected indices for each component to quantify the drought risk in South Korea according to the mid-size basins. Combinations of climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway; RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and socio-economic scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathways; SSP 1, SSP2 and SSP3) for the near future (2030-2050) ant the far future (2080-2099) were utilized in drought risk analysis, and results were compared with the historical data (1986-2005). In general, the drought risks for all scenarios shows large increases as time proceeds to the far furture. In addition, we analyzed the rank of drought hazard, exposure, vulnerability for drought risk, and each of their contribution. The results showed that the drought hazard is the most contributing component to the increase of drought risk in future and each basin shows varying contributing components. Finally, we suggested countermeasures for each basin according to future climate change scenarios, and thus this study provides made the basis for establishing drought management measures.

PORTFOLIO CHOICE UNDER INFLATION RISK: MARTINGALE APPROACH

  • Lim, Byung Hwa
    • Journal of the Chungcheong Mathematical Society
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.343-349
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    • 2013
  • The optimal portfolio selection problem under inflation risk is considered in this paper. There are three assets the economic agent can invest, which are a risk free bond, an index bond and a risky asset. By applying the martingale method, the optimal consumption rate and the optimal portfolios for each asset are obtained explicitly.

Under-use of Radiotherapy in Stage III Bronchioaveolar Lung Cancer and Socio-economic Disparities in Cause Specific Survival: a Population Study

  • Cheung, Min Rex
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.9
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    • pp.4091-4094
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    • 2014
  • Background: This study used the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) to analyze Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) bronchioaveolar carcinoma data to identify predictive models and potential disparity in outcomes. Materials and Methods: Socio-economic, staging and treatment factors were assessed. For the risk modeling, each factor was fitted by a Generalized Linear Model to predict cause specific survival. The area under the ROC was computed. Similar strata were combined to construct the most parsimonious models. A random sampling algorithm was used to estimate modeling errors. Risk of cause specific death was computed for the predictors for comparison. Results: There were 7,309 patients included in this study. The mean follow up time (S.D.) was 24.2 (20) months. Female patients outnumbered male ones 3:2. The mean (S.D.) age was 70.1 (10.6) years. Stage was the most predictive factor of outcome (ROC area of 0.76). After optimization, several strata were fused, with a comparable ROC area of 0.75. There was a 4% additional risk of death associated with lower county family income, African American race, rural residency and lower than 25% county college graduate. Radiotherapy had not been used in 2/3 of patients with stage III disease. Conclusions: There are socio-economic disparities in cause specific survival. Under-use of radiotherapy may have contributed to poor outcome. Improving education, access and rates of radiotherapy use may improve outcome.

Risk Management Process through a Phase of $Economic{\cdot}Financial$ Feasibility Study (경제적${\cdot}$재무적 타당성분석 단계에서의 리스크 관리절차 연구)

  • Park Young-Min;Kim Soo-Yong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.454-459
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    • 2003
  • Feasibility study on large scale projects like an investment on infrastructure development is very important because it provides fundamental data which determine the total investment size and duration. However, previous feasibility studies have a few problems of ambiguous estimation standards, unsystematical estimation methods, and so on. Accordingly, this study intends to regulate tile problems on economic feasibility as well as financial feasibility study which have been considered more critical in recent time, subsequently presents a reform measure. Also, this study identifies predictable risks during the feasibility study, presents a scheme which lets investor and owner control the risk themselves through a process which uses theoretical and political management plans.

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Moderating the Effects of Health Behaviors on Sexual Intercourse among Adolescents: A Cross-Sectional Study Using the 2020 Adolescent Health Behavior Survey

  • Lee, Eunmi;Yang, Youngran
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.52 no.5
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    • pp.499-510
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: This study investigated the association between adolescent health behaviors (drinking, smoking, and drug use) and sexual intercourse, as well as the moderating effects of economic status, cohabitation with parents, and school type, among adolescents in Korea. Methods: Secondary data from the 16th Adolescent Health Behavior Survey (2020) were used. A total of 395 schools and 54,948 middle and high school students participated in the study. Complex sample frequency analysis, the Rao-Scott test, and complex sample logistic regression analyses were performed. Results: Sexual intercourse rates for men and women were 5.8% and 3.3%, respectively. Approximately 7.3% of high school students and 1.8% of middle school students reported having had sexual relations. Drinking (odds ratio [OR] = 3.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.82~3.52), smoking (OR = 6.75, 95% CI = 5.90~7.71), and drug use (OR = 3.03, 95% CI = 2.23~4.11) significantly increased the risk of sexual intercourse. Economic status and school type had moderating effects on the association between drinking and sexual intercourse. Conclusion: Adolescent drinking, smoking, and drug use are associated with a higher risk of sexual experience. Thus, to reduce this risk, controlling alcohol consumption, smoking, and drug use is necessary. In addition, programs for healthy lifestyles and sexual intercourse should be differentiated according to the school type and the economic conditions of the adolescents' households.

Nonlinear semi-active/passive retrofit design evaluation using incremental dynamic analysis

  • Rodgers, Geoffrey W.;Chase, J. Geoffrey;Roland, Thomas;Macrae, Gregory A.;Zhou, Cong
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.109-120
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    • 2022
  • Older or damaged structures can require significant retrofit to ensure they perform well in subsequent earthquakes. Supplemental damping devices are used to achieve this goal, but increase base shear forces, foundation demand, and cost. Displacement reduction without increasing base shear is possible using novel semi-active and recently-created passive devices, which offer energy dissipation in selected quadrants of the force-displacement response. Combining these devices with large, strictly passive energy dissipation devices can offer greater, yet customized response reductions. Supplemental damping to reduce response without increasing base shear enables a net-zero base shear approach. This study evaluates this concept using two incremental dynamic analyses (IDAs) to show displacement reductions up to 40% without increasing base shear, more than would be achieved for either device alone, significantly reducing the risk of response exceeding the unaltered structural case. IDA results lead to direct calculation of reductions in risk and annualized economic cost for adding these devices using this net-zero concept, thus quantifying the trade-off. The overall device assessment and risk analysis method presented provides a generalizable proof-of-concept approach, and provides a framework for assessing the impact and economic cost-benefit of using modern supplemental energy dissipation devices.

Effect of Sociodemographic Factors, Cancer, Psychiatric Disorder on Suicide: Gender and Age-specific Patterns (인구사회적 요인, 암, 일부 전신질환 등이 자살에 미치는 영향: 성별, 연령별 분석)

  • Park, Jae-Young;Chae, Yoo-Mi;Jung, Sang-Hyuk;Moon, Ki-Tae
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.51-60
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    • 2008
  • Objectives : We examined the effect of sociodemographic factors, cancer, and psychiatric disorders on suicide by gender and age-specific patterns in South Korea. Methods : The study is a case-control study. Claim data was obtained from the national health insurance database and national death registration database. The number of people who committed suicide was 11,523, which was matched with a control group consisting of ten times as many people at 115,230 selected from the national health insurance and medical aids beneficiaries. The medical utilization of the case group was one year before death and that of the control group was from July 1,2003 to June 30, 2004. Four variables-address, economic status, presence of a psychiatric disease, and cancer-were used in multiple logistic regression analyses. Results : Living in cities or in rural areas showed a greater risk for suicide than living in a metropolitan city. Low economic status, the presence of a psychiatric disorder, and cancer were also statistically meaningful risk factors for suicide. The three major psychiatric diseases, schizophrenia, alcohol abuse, and bipolar disorder, were meaningful in all age groups, but the scale of the odds ratio differed by the age group. Only the psychiatric disorder variable was meaningful in the adolescent group, whereas a psychiatric disorder and economic status were meaningful for the young adult group, and all variables were meaningful for the middle-aged group. A psychiatric disorder and cancer were meaningful in the elderly group, economic status was meaningful for male subjects, and address was meaningful for female subjects. Conclusions : Factors such as living in city or rural areas, low economic status, the presence of a psychiatric disorder, and cancer were statistically meaningful risk factors in suicide. These factors also differed by age group. Therefore, policymakers should establish policies for suicide prevention that are relevant for each age group.

Internet use and oral health behaviors in Korean adolescents (한국청소년의 인터넷 사용과 구강건강행태)

  • Kim, Young-Suk
    • Journal of Korean society of Dental Hygiene
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.277-286
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between Internet use and oral health behaviors in Korean adolescents. Methods: This study used the 13th Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey (2017) to find an association between Internet use and oral health behaviors. The total number of study subjects was 54,603. A chi-square test and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to estimate the association between Internet use and oral health behaviors. Results: Internet use was significantly increased among female, higher school grade, lower school records, and lower economic status participants (p<0.001). The rate of frequency of toothbrushing more than three times daily and use of oral hygiene devices was increased among female, higher school record, and higher economic status participants significantly (p<0.001). Oral symptoms experienced were significantly increased among female, higher school grade, lower school records, and lower economic status participants (p<0.001). The rate of the toothbrushing more than three times daily and toothbrushing after lunch groups was the highest in the group with less than one hour of Internet use, but the rate of oral symptoms experienced was the highest in the group with over five hours of Internet use. The risk of toothbrushing less than twice daily was 1.61 times higher in the group with over five hours of Internet use, and the risk of not brushing after lunch was significantly higher (1.52 times) in the over five hours group. The risk of not using oral hygiene devices was the highest (1.22 times) in the less than five hours group, and the risk of oral symptoms experiences was 1.40 times higher in the more than five hours group. Conclusions: Internet use was related to oral health behaviors in adolescents. Appropriate Internet use and awareness of oral health care are needed among adolescents.

An Analysis of the Effects of Luxury Brand Consumers on the Re-purchase Intentions, Behavioral and Risk Perception (명품브랜드 소비자의 재 구매의도에 미치는 영향 분석 -온라인 해외직업구매 이용동기, 행동의도, 위험지각을 중심으로-)

  • Yoon, Seonyoung;Lee, Seunghee
    • Journal of Fashion Business
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to define the purchase behavior of online luxury fashion brand consumers that soon became new luxury consumption trends. To investigate online luxury fashion brand consumer's purchase behavior, three variables were suggested based on advanced researches. These variables include economic value, item variety and pleasure. Purchasing luxury online was not common but as cross-border online shopping market became popular, consumers began to purchase luxury items through online shopping platforms. Preliminary surveys was conducted on 20~40-year-old consumers who have experience in online shopping for luxurious items. Total 238 questionnaires were used for analysis. By using SPSS, frequency analysis, factor analysis, reliability analysis, correlation analysis, regression analysis, t-test and ANOVA were conducted. The results of the study were as follow; first, consumer's purchase behavior appeared to be influenced by the order of pleasure of shopping, economic value and item variety. Repurchase intention appeared to be affected by the order of economic value, item variety, and pleasure of shopping. Second, online luxury fashion consumers perceived that risk does not affect purchase intention and repurchase intention. Third, as purchase intention increases, repurchase intention also increases. Fourth, shopping value, age and channel risk also indicated meaningful differences. As an early study of luxury fashion brand products purchased directly online, the academic significance can facilitate an overall understanding of consumer behavior such as usage motive, risk perception, behavioral intention.

Study on Evaluation of Critical Minerals for the Development of Korea's Materials-parts Industry (한국의 소재부품산업 육성을 위한 핵심광물 선정 연구)

  • Yujeong Kim;Sunjin Lee
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.155-166
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    • 2023
  • Through COVID-19, the importance of supply chain management of raw material minerals has been maximized. In particular, supply chain management is important for rare metals, which are difficult to manage demand and supply, in order to secure raw materials for the parts and materials industry that Korea is actively promoting. In this study, a system was established and evaluated to select Critical minerals that need to respond to Korea's industrial structure and global risks by quantifying tangible and intangible risk factors. Global Supply Concentration, Supplying country risk, Policy Social Environment Regulation, Domestic Import Instability, Risk responsiveness, Market Scale, Demand Fluctuation and Economic Importance were evaluated as evaluation indicators. The degree of risk and risk impact were quantitatively measured using the criticality matrix-criticality level. After evaluating 40 types of minerals used in domestic new growth businesses, 15 types of Critical minerals(Li, Pt, Co, V, REE, Mg, Mo, Cr, Ti, W, C, Ni, Al, Mn, Si) in Korea were selected. The results are expected to be used to establish policies to strengthen resource security and to make decisions to form a company's raw material portfolio.