• Title/Summary/Keyword: Economic News

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Topic Modeling of News Article about International Construction Market Using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (Latent Dirichlet Allocation 기법을 활용한 해외건설시장 뉴스기사의 토픽 모델링(Topic Modeling))

  • Moon, Seonghyeon;Chung, Sehwan;Chi, Seokho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.595-599
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    • 2018
  • Sufficient understanding of oversea construction market status is crucial to get profitability in the international construction project. Plenty of researchers have been considering the news article as a fine data source for figuring out the market condition, since the data includes market information such as political, economic, and social issue. Since the text data exists in unstructured format with huge size, various text-mining techniques were studied to reduce the unnecessary manpower, time, and cost to summarize the data. However, there are some limitations to extract the needed information from the news article because of the existence of various topics in the data. This research is aimed to overcome the problems and contribute to summarization of market status by performing topic modeling with Latent Dirichlet Allocation. With assuming that 10 topics existed in the corpus, the topics included projects for user convenience (topic-2), private supports to solve poverty problems in Africa (topic-4), and so on. By grouping the topics in the news articles, the results could improve extracting useful information and summarizing the market status.

A Comparative Study of Local Newspapers' News Frame: Focus on Nuclear Waste Site Reporting (지역신문 뉴스 프레임 비교: 핵폐기장 관련 보도를 중심으로)

  • Choi, Nak-Jin
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.27
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    • pp.283-316
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    • 2004
  • This study examines different news frames of local newspapers reporting the controversial 'Nu[lear Waste Site' issues which deeply split regions showing their intention to bid for the state affair. Three local papers were analyzed for this study, "Gwang-Ju-Il-bo" "Mae-il-sin-mun" and "Jun-buk-il-bo." Overall, the three local papers displayed widely divergent main news frames on the same issue. Firstly, "Gwang-Ju-Il-bo", and "Mae-il-sln-mun" showed the strong tendency of using 'counter frame' while "Jun-buk-il-bo" exhibited 'loral development frame'. Secondly, "Gwang-Ju-Il-bo", and "Mae-il-sin-mun" were frequently headlined 'Nuclear Waste Site', while "Jun-buk-il-bo" carried headlines 'Radioactive Waste Management Facility' overwhelmingly more often than the other two papers, indicating that headline key words are closely associated with the configuration of news frames. Thirdly, the main news frames remained consistent for "Gwang-Ju-Il-bo", and "Mae-il-sin-mun" even after the government's report about the possible connection of 'ion-beam irradiation-accelator' and 'Nuclear Waste Site.' On the other hand, "Jun-buk-il-bo" was significantly less headlined 'Nuclear Waste Site' while significantly more headlined "Radioactice Waste Management Facility." "Jun-Buk-il-bo" which is in stark contrast to the other two papers changed in its tone by increasing the 'local development frame' with decrease in the 'counter frame.' The "Jun-buk-il-bo"'s more frequent use of 'Radioactive Waste Management Facility' as a headline than "Nuclear Waste Management Equipment" is seen as its attempt to minimize negative image of Nuclear Waste and to promote favorable public opinion by highlighting aspects of economic benefits and the local development the construction would brind about. The major findings of this study further support the claim that media overage ends up a reality. The fact that Buan in Jun-buk Province made a successful bid for the construction is not a coincidence.

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Influence analysis of Internet buzz to corporate performance : Individual stock price prediction using sentiment analysis of online news (온라인 언급이 기업 성과에 미치는 영향 분석 : 뉴스 감성분석을 통한 기업별 주가 예측)

  • Jeong, Ji Seon;Kim, Dong Sung;Kim, Jong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.37-51
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    • 2015
  • Due to the development of internet technology and the rapid increase of internet data, various studies are actively conducted on how to use and analyze internet data for various purposes. In particular, in recent years, a number of studies have been performed on the applications of text mining techniques in order to overcome the limitations of the current application of structured data. Especially, there are various studies on sentimental analysis to score opinions based on the distribution of polarity such as positivity or negativity of vocabularies or sentences of the texts in documents. As a part of such studies, this study tries to predict ups and downs of stock prices of companies by performing sentimental analysis on news contexts of the particular companies in the Internet. A variety of news on companies is produced online by different economic agents, and it is diffused quickly and accessed easily in the Internet. So, based on inefficient market hypothesis, we can expect that news information of an individual company can be used to predict the fluctuations of stock prices of the company if we apply proper data analysis techniques. However, as the areas of corporate management activity are different, an analysis considering characteristics of each company is required in the analysis of text data based on machine-learning. In addition, since the news including positive or negative information on certain companies have various impacts on other companies or industry fields, an analysis for the prediction of the stock price of each company is necessary. Therefore, this study attempted to predict changes in the stock prices of the individual companies that applied a sentimental analysis of the online news data. Accordingly, this study chose top company in KOSPI 200 as the subjects of the analysis, and collected and analyzed online news data by each company produced for two years on a representative domestic search portal service, Naver. In addition, considering the differences in the meanings of vocabularies for each of the certain economic subjects, it aims to improve performance by building up a lexicon for each individual company and applying that to an analysis. As a result of the analysis, the accuracy of the prediction by each company are different, and the prediction accurate rate turned out to be 56% on average. Comparing the accuracy of the prediction of stock prices on industry sectors, 'energy/chemical', 'consumer goods for living' and 'consumer discretionary' showed a relatively higher accuracy of the prediction of stock prices than other industries, while it was found that the sectors such as 'information technology' and 'shipbuilding/transportation' industry had lower accuracy of prediction. The number of the representative companies in each industry collected was five each, so it is somewhat difficult to generalize, but it could be confirmed that there was a difference in the accuracy of the prediction of stock prices depending on industry sectors. In addition, at the individual company level, the companies such as 'Kangwon Land', 'KT & G' and 'SK Innovation' showed a relatively higher prediction accuracy as compared to other companies, while it showed that the companies such as 'Young Poong', 'LG', 'Samsung Life Insurance', and 'Doosan' had a low prediction accuracy of less than 50%. In this paper, we performed an analysis of the share price performance relative to the prediction of individual companies through the vocabulary of pre-built company to take advantage of the online news information. In this paper, we aim to improve performance of the stock prices prediction, applying online news information, through the stock price prediction of individual companies. Based on this, in the future, it will be possible to find ways to increase the stock price prediction accuracy by complementing the problem of unnecessary words that are added to the sentiment dictionary.

The Information Leisure Activity of the Aging Generation and the Analysis of Meaning (노년기 소비자의 정보화 여가활동 연구와 의미 분석)

  • Kim, Yeon-Jeong
    • Journal of Family Resource Management and Policy Review
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.323-340
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    • 2010
  • Many social and environmental changes have emerged due to the increasing size of the aging generation. This study explored the current status of the information leisure activity of the aging generation (computer use activity, internet service participation, social community participation and blogging, UCC, etc.) and the need for serious games among elderly consumers. It analyzed the current status of serious game and information leisure span as determined by experts on elderly care at the aging welfare institute. The research methods involved applying content analysis and focus group interviews. The results were as follows: The elderly are willing to enjoy the internet and economics networks. In particular, economic investment, economic news, health, meetings, and communication are the main internet search categories. The results for serious games are less interesting than those for IT participation. The components of usefulness in terms of serious games, as identified by care experts, are simplicity, a user-friendly interface, efficacy, and certainty in using the game device. Care experts recognize that serious games represent a supplementary device to traditional physical and emotional therapy.

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Collocation Networks and Covid-19 in Letters to the Editor: A Malaysian Case Study

  • Joharry, Siti Aeisha;Turiman, Syamimi
    • Asia Pacific Journal of Corpus Research
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.1-30
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    • 2020
  • The present study examines language used to talk about the global coronavirus pandemic during a three-month period of movement control order in Malaysia. More specifically, a corpus of online letters to the editor of a local popular national newspaper was collected during the time in which the official quarantine instruction was initiated, resulting in a total of 303 online letters written by Malaysians that were analyzed through use of corpus linguistics techniques. For this purpose, the latest version of #LancsBox 5.0 (Brezina et al., 2020) is used to analyze patterns of language surrounding the portrayal of Covid-19 and further visualizing them by use of collocation networks. Findings present 25 statistically significant collocates that share an interesting relationship in revealing what the letters are about and thus, reflecting how Malaysians perceive and receive news about the pandemic during this time. Recurring topics and expressions include describing the virus in terms of metaphorical use of language (Covid-19 does not discriminate), preparing for an economic fallout (Prihatin Economic Stimulus Package), and preference to associate Covid-19 as a pandemic (impacts of the Covid19 pandemic) rather than an outbreak (first/second/third wave of the outbreak). Implications of the study resonates with findings from Azizan et al. (2020) where constructions of positive discourse among Malaysian writers may reflect the culture and society that make up the nation.

Microblogging Sentiment Investor, Return and Volatility in the COVID-19 Era: Indonesian Stock Exchange

  • FARISKA, Putri;NUGRAHA, Nugraha;PUTERA, Ika;ROHANDI, Mochamad Malik Akbar;FARISKA, Putri
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.61-67
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    • 2021
  • The covid-19 pandemic scenario caused the most extensive economic shocks the world has experienced in decades. Maintaining financial performance and economic stability is essential during the pandemic period. In these conditions, where movement is severely restricted, media consumption is considered to be increasing. The social media platform is one of the media online used by the public as a source of information and also expressing their sentiment, including individual investors in the capital market as social media users. Twitter is one of the social media microblogging platforms used by individual investors to share their opinion and get information. This study aims to determine whether microblogging sentiment investors can predict the capital market during pandemics. To analyze microblogging sentiment investors, we classified sentiment using the phyton text mining algorithm and Naïve Bayesian text classification into level positive, negative, and neutral from November 2019 to November 2020. This study was on 68 listed companies on the Indonesia stock exchange. A Vector Autoregression and Impulse Response is applied to capture short and long-term impacts along with a causal relationship. We found that microblogging sentiment investor has a significant impact on stock returns and volatility and vice-versa. Also, the response due to shocks is convergent, and microblogging investors in Indonesia are categorized as a "news-watcher" investor.

Analysis on Dynamics of Korea Startup Ecosystems Based on Topic Modeling (토픽 모델링을 활용한 한국의 창업생태계 트렌드 변화 분석)

  • Heeyoung Son;Myungjong Lee;Youngjo Byun
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.315-338
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    • 2022
  • In 1986, Korea established legal systems to support small and medium-sized start-ups, which becomes the main pillars of national development. The legal systems have stimulated start-up ecosystems to have more than 1 million new start-up companies founded every year during the past 30 years. To analyze the trend of Korea's start-up ecosystem, in this study, we collected 1.18 million news articles from 1991 to 2020. Then, we extracted news articles that have the keywords "start-up", "venture", and "start-up". We employed network analysis and topic modeling to analyze collected news articles. Our analysis can contribute to analyzing the government policy direction shown in the history of start-up support policy. Specifically, our analysis identifies the dynamic characteristics of government influenced by external environmental factors (e.g., society, economy, and culture). The results of our analysis suggest that the start-up ecosystems in Korea have changed and developed mainly by the government policies for corporation governance, industrial development planning, deregulation, and economic prosperity plan. Our frequency keyword analysis contributes to understanding entrepreneurial productivity attributed to activities among the networked components in industrial ecosystems. Our analyses and results provide practitioners and researchers with practical and academic implications that can help to establish dedicated support policies through forecast tasks of the economic environment surrounding the start-ups. Korean entrepreneurial productivity has been empowered by growing numbers of large companies in the mobile phone industry. The spectrum of large companies incorporates content startups, platform providers, online shopping malls, and youth-oriented start-ups. In addition, economic situational factors contribute to the growth of Korean entrepreneurial productivity the economic, which are related to the global expansions of the mobile industry, and government efforts to foster start-ups. Our research is methodologically implicative. We employ natural language processes for 30 years of media articles, which enables more rigorous analysis compared to the existing studies which only observe changes in government and policy based on a qualitative manner.

Study of major issues and trends facing ports, using big data news: From 1991 to 2020 (뉴스 빅데이터를 활용한 항만이슈 변화연구 : 1991~2020)

  • Yoon, Hee-Young
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.159-178
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    • 2021
  • This study analyzed issues and trends related to ports with 86,611 news articles for the 30 years from 1991 to 2020, using BIGKinds, a big data news analysis service. The analysis was based on keyword analysis, word cloud, relationship diagram analysis offered by BIG Kinds. Analysis results of issues and trends on ports for the last 30 years are summarized as follows. First, during Phase 1 (1991-2000), individual ports such as Busan, Incheon, and Gwangyang ports tried to strengthen their own competitiveness. During Phase 2 (2001-2010), efforts were made on gaining more professional and specialized port management abilities by establishing the Busan Port Authority in 2004, the Incheon Port Authority in 2005, and the Ulsan Port Authority in 2007. During Phase 3 (2011-2020), the promotion of future-oriented, eco-friendly, and smart ports was major issues. Efforts to reduce particulate matters and pollutants produced from ports were accelerated, and an attempt to build a smart port driven by port automation and digitalization was also intensified. Lastly, in 2020, when the maritime sector was severely hit by the unexpected shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, a microscopic analysis of trends and issues in 2019 and 2020 was made to look into the impact the pandemic on the maritime industry. It was found that shipping and port industries experienced more drastic changes than ever while trying to prepare for a post-pandemic era as well as promoting future-oriented ports. This study made policy suggestions by analyzing port-related news articles and trends, and it is expected that based on the findings of this research, further studies on enhancing the competitiveness of ports and devising a sustainable development strategy will follow through a comparative analysis of port issues of different countries, thereby making further progress toward academic research on ports.

Predicting stock movements based on financial news with systematic group identification (시스템적인 군집 확인과 뉴스를 이용한 주가 예측)

  • Seong, NohYoon;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2019
  • Because stock price forecasting is an important issue both academically and practically, research in stock price prediction has been actively conducted. The stock price forecasting research is classified into using structured data and using unstructured data. With structured data such as historical stock price and financial statements, past studies usually used technical analysis approach and fundamental analysis. In the big data era, the amount of information has rapidly increased, and the artificial intelligence methodology that can find meaning by quantifying string information, which is an unstructured data that takes up a large amount of information, has developed rapidly. With these developments, many attempts with unstructured data are being made to predict stock prices through online news by applying text mining to stock price forecasts. The stock price prediction methodology adopted in many papers is to forecast stock prices with the news of the target companies to be forecasted. However, according to previous research, not only news of a target company affects its stock price, but news of companies that are related to the company can also affect the stock price. However, finding a highly relevant company is not easy because of the market-wide impact and random signs. Thus, existing studies have found highly relevant companies based primarily on pre-determined international industry classification standards. However, according to recent research, global industry classification standard has different homogeneity within the sectors, and it leads to a limitation that forecasting stock prices by taking them all together without considering only relevant companies can adversely affect predictive performance. To overcome the limitation, we first used random matrix theory with text mining for stock prediction. Wherever the dimension of data is large, the classical limit theorems are no longer suitable, because the statistical efficiency will be reduced. Therefore, a simple correlation analysis in the financial market does not mean the true correlation. To solve the issue, we adopt random matrix theory, which is mainly used in econophysics, to remove market-wide effects and random signals and find a true correlation between companies. With the true correlation, we perform cluster analysis to find relevant companies. Also, based on the clustering analysis, we used multiple kernel learning algorithm, which is an ensemble of support vector machine to incorporate the effects of the target firm and its relevant firms simultaneously. Each kernel was assigned to predict stock prices with features of financial news of the target firm and its relevant firms. The results of this study are as follows. The results of this paper are as follows. (1) Following the existing research flow, we confirmed that it is an effective way to forecast stock prices using news from relevant companies. (2) When looking for a relevant company, looking for it in the wrong way can lower AI prediction performance. (3) The proposed approach with random matrix theory shows better performance than previous studies if cluster analysis is performed based on the true correlation by removing market-wide effects and random signals. The contribution of this study is as follows. First, this study shows that random matrix theory, which is used mainly in economic physics, can be combined with artificial intelligence to produce good methodologies. This suggests that it is important not only to develop AI algorithms but also to adopt physics theory. This extends the existing research that presented the methodology by integrating artificial intelligence with complex system theory through transfer entropy. Second, this study stressed that finding the right companies in the stock market is an important issue. This suggests that it is not only important to study artificial intelligence algorithms, but how to theoretically adjust the input values. Third, we confirmed that firms classified as Global Industrial Classification Standard (GICS) might have low relevance and suggested it is necessary to theoretically define the relevance rather than simply finding it in the GICS.

Forecasting the BDI during the Period of 2012 (2012 BDI의 예측)

  • Mo, Soo-Won
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2011
  • In much the same way as the US Lehman crisis of 2008-2009 severely impacted the European economy through financial market dislocation, a European banking crisis would materially impact the US economy through a generalized increase in global risk aversion. A deepening of the European crisis could very well derail the US economic recovery and have a harmful impact on the Asian economies. This kind of vicious circle could be a bad news to the shipping companies. The purpose of the study is to predict the Baltic Dry Index representing the shipping business during the period of 2012 using the ARIMA-type models. This include the ARIMA and Intervention-ARIMA models. This article introduces the four ARIMA models and six Intervention-ARIMA models. The monthly data cover the period January 2000 through October 2011. The out-of-sample forecasting performance is also calculated. Forecasting performance is measured by three summary statistics: root mean squared percent error, mean absolute percent error and mean percent error. The root mean squared percent errors, however, are somewhat higher than normally expected. This reveals that it is very difficult to predict the BDI The ARIMA-type models show that the shipping market will be bearish in 2012. These pessimistic ex-ante forecasts are supported by the Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique.