• Title/Summary/Keyword: Economic Model

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A Study on the Determination of Tramp Freight Rates (부정기선 운임율의 결정에 관한 이론적 고찰)

  • 이종인
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.45-79
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    • 1980
  • The aim of this paper is to analyze the mechanics of price formation in the tramp shipping. For the purpose of this study, the main characteristics of tramp freight rates and the market is examined, and a brief examination of the nature ofthe costs of operation is given which are essential for the understanding of the functioning of shipping firms as well as for the understanding of developments in the tramp freight market. The demand and supply relationships in the market is also analysed in detail. Tramp shipping is an industry that has a market which functions under conditions that are not dissimilar to the theoretical model of perfect competition. However, it does notmean that tramp shipping market is a perfectly competitive market. It is apparent that this realworld competitive system has its imperfections, which means that the market for tramp shipping is near to being a perfectly competitive market on an internaitonal scale and it is freight are therefore subjext to the laws of supply and demand. In theory, the minimum freight rate in the short term is that at which the lowest cost vessels will lay-up in preference to operating, and is equal to the variable costs minus lay-up costs; and this would imply that in all times except those of full employment for ships there is a tendency for newer low-cost, and, probably, faster vessels to be driving the older high-cost vessels in the breaker's yards. In this case, shipowners may be reluctant to lay-up their ships becasue of obligations to crews, or because they would lose credibility with shippers or financiers, or simply because of lost prestige. Mainly, however, the decision is made on strictly economic grounds. When, for example, the total operating costs minus the likely freight earnings are greater than the cost of taking the ship out of service, maintaining it, and recommissioning it, then a ship may be considered for laying-up; shipowners will, in other words, run the ships at freight earnings below operating costs by as much as the cost of laying them up. As described above, the freight rates fixed on the tramp shipping market are subject to the laws of supply and demand. In other words, the basic properties of supply and demand are of significance so far as price or rate fluctuations in the tramp freight market are concerned. In connection with the same of the demand for tramp shipping services, the following points should be brone in mind: (a) That the magnitude of demand for sea transport of dry cargoes in general and for tramp shipping services in particular is increasing in the long run. (b) That owning to external factors, the demand for tramp shipping services is capable of varying sharphy at a given going of time. (c) The demad for the industry's services tends to be price inelastic in the short run. On the other hand the demand for the services offered by the individual shipping firm tends as a rule to be infinitely price elastic. In the meantime, the properties of the supply of the tramp shipping facilities are that it cannot expand or contract in the short run. Also, that in the long run there is a time-lag between entrepreneurs' decision to expand their fleets and the actual time of delivery of the new vessels. Thus, supply is inelastic and not capable of responding to demand and price changes at a given period of time. In conclusion, it can be safely stated that short-run changes in freight rates are a direct result of variations in the magnitude of demand for tramp shipping facilities, whilest the average level of freight rates is brought down to relatively low levels over prolonged periods of time.

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Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Economic Traits in Swine (종돈의 경제 형질의 유전모수 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, C.S.;Lee, I.J.;Cho, K.H.;Seo, K.S.;Lee, J.G.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.145-154
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    • 2004
  • This study was conducted to estimate genetic parameter of Duroc, Landrace and Yorkshire breeds based on the on-farm performance tested records of 57,316 pigs under the supervision of Korean Animal Improvement Association from 1992 to 1999. Genetic parameters were estimated with a multiple trait animal model by using DF - REML. The result obtained in this study was summarized as follow ; The estimated heritabilities of Duroc, Landrace and Yorkshire were 0.46${\sim}$0.65 for the average backfat thickness, 0.28${\sim}$0.31 for loin depth, 0.50~0.60 for percent lean, 0.45${\sim}$0.55 for the average daily gain, 0.38${\sim}$0.50 for age at 90kg, respectively. Phenotypic correlation of average backfat thickness with loin depth, percent lean, average daily gain and age at 90㎏ for the three breeds were -0.12${\sim}$-0.01, -0.81${\sim}$-0.76, 0.34${\sim}$0.46, and -0.41${\sim}$-0.33, respectively. Phenotypic correlation of loin depth with percent lean, average daily gain and age at 90kg were 0.12${\sim}$0.23, 0.03${\sim}$0.21, and -0.17${\sim}$-0.03, respectively. Phenotypic correlation of percent lean with average daily gain and age at 90kg were -0.37${\sim}$-0.26 and 0.26~0.35, respectively. Phenotypic correlation of average daily gain with age at 90kg was -0.97${\sim}$-0.95. The estimated genetic correlation coefficients of average backfat thickness with loin depth, percent lean, average daily gain and age at 90kg estimated for the three breeds were -0.17${\sim}$0.03, -0.79${\sim}$-0.69, 0.24${\sim}$0.45 and -0.41${\sim}$-0.19, respectively. The estimated genetic correlation coefficients of loin depth with percent lean, average daily gain and age at 90kg were 0.11~0.19, 0.23 and -0.30~-0.20, respectively. The estimated correlation coefficients of percent lean with average daily gain and age at 90kg were -0.36${\sim}$-0.13 and 0.10~0.34, respectively. The estimated genetic correlation coefficients of average daily gain with age at 90㎏ was -0.96${\sim}$-0.95.

Text Mining-Based Emerging Trend Analysis for the Aviation Industry (항공산업 미래유망분야 선정을 위한 텍스트 마이닝 기반의 트렌드 분석)

  • Kim, Hyun-Jung;Jo, Nam-Ok;Shin, Kyung-Shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.65-82
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    • 2015
  • Recently, there has been a surge of interest in finding core issues and analyzing emerging trends for the future. This represents efforts to devise national strategies and policies based on the selection of promising areas that can create economic and social added value. The existing studies, including those dedicated to the discovery of future promising fields, have mostly been dependent on qualitative research methods such as literature review and expert judgement. Deriving results from large amounts of information under this approach is both costly and time consuming. Efforts have been made to make up for the weaknesses of the conventional qualitative analysis approach designed to select key promising areas through discovery of future core issues and emerging trend analysis in various areas of academic research. There needs to be a paradigm shift in toward implementing qualitative research methods along with quantitative research methods like text mining in a mutually complementary manner. The change is to ensure objective and practical emerging trend analysis results based on large amounts of data. However, even such studies have had shortcoming related to their dependence on simple keywords for analysis, which makes it difficult to derive meaning from data. Besides, no study has been carried out so far to develop core issues and analyze emerging trends in special domains like the aviation industry. The change used to implement recent studies is being witnessed in various areas such as the steel industry, the information and communications technology industry, the construction industry in architectural engineering and so on. This study focused on retrieving aviation-related core issues and emerging trends from overall research papers pertaining to aviation through text mining, which is one of the big data analysis techniques. In this manner, the promising future areas for the air transport industry are selected based on objective data from aviation-related research papers. In order to compensate for the difficulties in grasping the meaning of single words in emerging trend analysis at keyword levels, this study will adopt topic analysis, which is a technique used to find out general themes latent in text document sets. The analysis will lead to the extraction of topics, which represent keyword sets, thereby discovering core issues and conducting emerging trend analysis. Based on the issues, it identified aviation-related research trends and selected the promising areas for the future. Research on core issue retrieval and emerging trend analysis for the aviation industry based on big data analysis is still in its incipient stages. So, the analysis targets for this study are restricted to data from aviation-related research papers. However, it has significance in that it prepared a quantitative analysis model for continuously monitoring the derived core issues and presenting directions regarding the areas with good prospects for the future. In the future, the scope is slated to expand to cover relevant domestic or international news articles and bidding information as well, thus increasing the reliability of analysis results. On the basis of the topic analysis results, core issues for the aviation industry will be determined. Then, emerging trend analysis for the issues will be implemented by year in order to identify the changes they undergo in time series. Through these procedures, this study aims to prepare a system for developing key promising areas for the future aviation industry as well as for ensuring rapid response. Additionally, the promising areas selected based on the aforementioned results and the analysis of pertinent policy research reports will be compared with the areas in which the actual government investments are made. The results from this comparative analysis are expected to make useful reference materials for future policy development and budget establishment.

An Investigation on the Optimal Ship Size for Chemical Tankers by Main Shipping Routes (케미컬 탱커선 운항노선별 최적선형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jae-Ho;Kim, Taek-Won;Woo, Su-Han
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.439-450
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    • 2015
  • This study objects to find characteristics in chemical tanker markets and to determine optimal chemical tanker size using a total shipping cost in main trading route of asia chemical tankers .Precedent studies of determination of the optimal ship size and case studies about chemical tankers was carried out and tried to introduce a cost model which is applicable to chemical tanker. This study is dependant on numerical analysis and involves scenario analysis to minimize sensitivity of results. This analysis shows as follows. First, 12,000DWT tanker is an optimal size on the 'Far East-Middle East' services, 9,000DWT tanker is a most competitive on the 'Far East-South East Asia' services and 3,000DWT tanker is a most economic size on the 'Inner Far East' services at average market situation. Second, the bigger size of chemical tanker, the more competitive advantage the tanker will obtain when bunker fuel prices rise. Small size ship gets more competitive during bunker prices down. Third, market fluctuation of time charter rate for chemical tanker is less than 20% against its average time charter hire which means less volatile. And tanker's competitiveness per each size is remained mostly same when time charterer rates rise at same proportion. Fourth, bigger size chemical tankers have cost advantages when tanker's quantity of each part cargo increase. And small-sized tanks are more competitive when part cargo scales decrease. For the last, ship's port stay strongly influences on the determination of the optical tanker size. When vessel has shorter port stay, bigger-sized tanker will be more competitive and even can be competitive if applies in short voyage as well.

The Study on Quantifying and Evaluating for the Functions of Flood Control and Fostering Water Resources in Agriculture (농업의 홍수조절기능과 수자원함양기능 계량화 및 가치평가에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Myung-Chul;Kang, Ki-Kyung;Hyun, Byung-Geun;Yun, Hong-Bae;Eom, Ki-Cheol
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.143-152
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    • 2008
  • In order to share the understanding agricultural multifunctionality with people, we carried out quantification and monetary evaluation for controlling flood and fostering water resources function in paddy and upland farming in Korea. The amount of water controlling flood and fostering water resources function in paddy farming was much greater than that in upland. The quantification of flood control function could be estimated by sum of the height of dike and water infiltrated during the flooding periods in paddy farming, and water excepting runoff water from precipitation at flooding time in upland farming. As results of estimation of flood control function, the amounts of water controlling flood have been evaluated as $294mm\;year^{-1}$ in paddy farming and $72.6mm\;year^{-1}$ upland farming, and was calculated 3.71 billion MT on a nation basis in 2006. When it was carried out monetary estimation as the cost of dam construction and the depreciation expense by using replacement cost method, flood control functions in paddy and upland were evaluated as 44,338.9 and 7,221.5 billion won, respectively. Comparing with previous reports, monetary value was analyzed much to increase because of rising price cost recently. Fostering water resource functions were also quantified in paddy and upland farming as the amount of water keeping and infiltrating water during the cultivation. In the basis of estimation model, it was showed that paddy and upland farming had been estimated to have $414.28mm\;year^{-1}$, $18.7mm\;year^{-1}$, respectively. They were also calculated to 4.49 and 0.137 billion MT on a nation basis in 2006, respectively. The economic values of fostering water resources function in paddy and upland farming were also estimated to 1,769.4 and 52.8 billion won, respectively, as replacing the amount of water to the cost of drinking water in 2006. There were differences by much to the amounts of controlling flood function and fostering water resource between paddy and upland farming. It means that paddy farming more play an important role in environment than upland farming in Korea.

Technology Innovation Activity and Default Risk (기술혁신활동이 부도위험에 미치는 영향 : 한국 유가증권시장 및 코스닥시장 상장기업을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jin-Su
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.55-80
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    • 2009
  • Technology innovation activity plays a pivotal role in constructing the entrance barrier for other firms and making process improvement and new product. and these activities give a profit increase and growth to firms. Thus, technology innovation activity can reduce the default risk of firms. However, technology innovation activity can also increase the firm's default risk because technology innovation activity requires too much investment of the firm's resources and has the uncertainty on success. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of technology innovation activity on the default risk of firms. This study's sample consists of manufacturing firms listed on the Korea Securities Market and The Kosdaq Market from January 1,2000 to December 31, 2008. This study makes use of R&D intensity as an proxy variable of technology innovation activity. The default probability which proxies the default risk of firms is measured by the Merton's(l974) debt pricing model. The main empirical results are as follows. First, from the empirical results, it is found that technology innovation activity has a negative and significant effect on the default risk of firms independent of the Korea Securities Market and Kosdaq Market. In other words, technology innovation activity reduces the default risk of firms. Second, technology innovation activity reduces the default risk of firms independent of firm size, firm age, and credit score. Third, the results of robust analysis also show that technology innovation activity is the important factor which decreases the default risk of firms. These results imply that a manager must show continuous interest and investment in technology innovation activity of one's firm. And a policymaker also need design an economic policy to promote the technology innovation activity of firms.

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A Study on the Application of Bushings Fire Prevent Structure to Prevent Fire Spread of Transformer (변압기의 화재확산 방지를 위한 부싱 방화구조체 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Do-Hyun;Cho, Nam-Wook;Yoon, Choung-Ho;Park, Pil-Yong;Park, Keun-Sung
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.53-62
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    • 2017
  • Electric power which is the energy source of economy and industries requires long distance transportation due to regional difference between its production and consumption, and it is supplied through the multi-loop transmission and distribution system. Prior to its actual use, electric power flows through several transformations by voltage transformers in substations depending on the characteristics of each usage, and a transformer has the structure consisting of the main body, winding wire, insulating oil and bushings. A transformer fire that breaks out in substations entails the primary damage that interrupts the power supply to houses and commercial facilities and causes various safety accidents as well as the secondary economic losses. It is considered that causes of such fire include the leak of insulating oil resulting from the destruction of bottom part of bushings, and the chain reaction of fire due to insulating oil that reaches its ignition point within 1 second. The smoke detector and automatic fire extinguishing system are established in order to minimize fire damage, but a difficulty in securing golden time for extinguishing fire due to delay in the operation of detector and release of gas from the extinguishing system has become a problem. Accordingly, this study was carried out according to needs of active mechanism to prevent the spread of fire and block the leak of insulating oil, in accordance with the importance of securing golden time in extinguishing a fire in its early stage. A bushings fireproof structure was developed by applying the high temperature shape retention materials, which are expanded by flame, and mechanical flame cutoff devices. The bushings fireproof structure was installed on the transformer model produced by applying the actual standards of bushings and flange, and the full scale fire test was carried out. It was confirmed that the bushings fireproof structure operated at accurate position and height within 3 seconds from the flame initiation. It is considered that it could block the spread of flame effectively in the event of actual transformer fire.

Recent Progress in Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Research : A Review of Papers Published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering in 2015 (설비공학회 분야의 최근 연구 동향 : 2015년 학회지 논문에 대한 종합적 고찰)

  • Lee, Dae-Young;Kim, Sa Ryang;Kim, Hyun-Jung;Kim, Dong-Seon;Park, Jun-Seok;Ihm, Pyeong Chan
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.256-268
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    • 2016
  • This article reviews the papers published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering during 2015. It is intended to understand the status of current research in the areas of heating, cooling, ventilation, sanitation, and indoor environments of buildings and plant facilities. Conclusions are as follows. (1) The research works on the thermal and fluid engineering were carried out in the areas of flow, heat and mass transfer, cooling and heating, and air-conditioning, the renewable energy system and the flow inside building rooms. Research issues dealing with air-conditioning machines and fire and exhausting smoke were reduced. CFD seems to be spreading to more research areas. (2) Research works on heat transfer area were carried out in the categories of heat transfer characteristics, pool boiling and condensing heat transfer and industrial heat exchangers. Researches on heat transfer characteristics included the economic analysis of GHG emission, micro channel heat exchanger, effect of rib angle on thermal performance, the airside performance of fin-and-tube heat exchangers, theoretical analysis of a rotary heat exchanger, heat exchanger in a cryogenic environment, the performance of a cross-flow-type, indirect evaporative cooler made of paper/plastic film. In the area of pool boiling and condensing, the bubble jet loop heat pipe was studied. In the area of industrial heat exchangers, researches were performed on fin-tube heat exchanger, KSTAR PFC and vacuum vessel at baking phase, the performance of small-sized dehumidification rotor, design of gas-injection port of an asymmetric scroll compressor, effect of slot discharge-angle change on exhaust efficiency of range hood system with air curtain. (3) In the field of refrigeration, various studies were carried in the categories of refrigeration cycle, alternative refrigeration/energy system, system control. In the refrigeration cycle category, a cold-climate heat pump system, $CO_2$ cascade systems, ejector cycles and a PCM-based continuous heating system were investigated. In the alternative refrigeration/energy system category, a polymer adsorption heat pump, an alcohol absorption heat pump and a desiccant-based hybrid refrigeration system were investigated. In the system control category, turbo-refrigerator capacity controls and an absorption chiller fault diagnostics were investigated. (4) In building mechanical system research fields, eighteen studies were reported for achieving effective design of the mechanical systems, and also for maximizing the energy efficiency of buildings. The topics of the studies included energy performance, HVAC system, ventilation, and renewable energies, piping in the buildings. Proposed designs, performance tests using numerical methods and experiments provide useful information and key data which can improve the energy efficiency of the buildings. (5) The field of architectural environment was mostly focused on indoor environment and building energy. The main researches of indoor environment were related to the user and location awareness technology applied dimming lighting control system, the lighting performance evaluation for light-shelves, the improvement evaluation of air quality through analysis of ventilation efficiency and the evaluation of airtightness of sliding and LS window systems. The subjects of building energy were worked on the energy saving estimation of existing buildings, the developing model to predict heating energy usage in domestic city area and the performance evaluation of cooling applied with economizer control. The studies were also performed related to the experimental measurement of weight variation and thermal conductivity in polyurethane foam, the development of flame spread prevention system for sandwich panels, the utilization of heat from waste-incineration facility in large-scale horticultural facilities.

Estimation of Allowable Bearing Capacity and Settlement of Deep Cement Mixing Method for Reinforcing the Greenhouse Foundation on Reclaimed Land (간척지 온실기초 보강을 위한 심층혼합처리공법의 허용지내력 및 침하량 산정)

  • Lee, Haksung;Kang, Bang Hun;Lee, Kwang-seung;Lee, Su Hwan
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.287-294
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    • 2021
  • In order to expand facility agriculture and reduce greenhouse construction costs in reclaimed land, a greenhouse foundation method that satisfies economic feasibility and structural safety at the same time is required. As an alternative, the allowable bearing capacity and settlement were reviewed when the DCM(Deep cement mixing) method was applied among the soft ground reinforcement methods. To examine the applicability of the greenhouse foundation, the allowable bearing capacity and settlement were calculated by applying the theory of Terzaghi, Meyerhof, Hansen, and Schmertmann. In case of the diameter of 800mm and the width and length of the foundation of 4m, the allowable bearing capacity was 179kN/m2 and the settlement was 7.25mm, which satisfies the required bearing capacity and settlement standards. The calculation results were verified through FEM(Finite element method) analysis using the Mohr-Coulomb material model. The allowable bearing capacity was 169kN/m2 and the settlement was 2.52mm. The bearing capacity showed an error of 5.6% compared to calculated value, and the settlement showed and error of 65.4%. Through theoretical calculations and FEM analysis, it was confirmed that the allowable bearing capacity and settlement satisfies the design criteria as a greenhouse foundation when the width and length of the foundation were 4m. Based on the verified design values, it is expected to be able to present the foundation design criteria for greenhouses through empirical tests such as bearing capacity tests and long-term settlement monitoring.

The Effect of Social Capital on Health-related Quality of Life - Using the Data of the 2019 Community Health Survey - (노인의 사회적 자본이 건강 관련 삶의 질에 미치는 영향 - 2019년 지역사회건강조사를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Ji-Hee;Park, Jong
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.280-294
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    • 2021
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of social capital characteristics, socio-demographic characteristics, physical condition, and health behavior characteristics on health-related quality of life of the elderly in Korea. Methods: T-test, one-way ANOVA, and regression analysis were performed by applying a complex sample design to 57.787 people aged 65 and over using the 2019 Community Health Survey. Results: First, as a result of complex-sample T-test and ANOVA analysis, it was found that there were differences in health-related quality of life according to social capital characteristics, physical condition & health behavior characteristics, and socio-demographic characteristics. Complex Sample Regression Analysis Results, the explanatory power of the model was 28%. When living in the metropolitan area, living in an apartment building, having a spouse, having a higher household income, economic activity, higher educational attainment, increase sleeping time, walking time, frequent binge drinking, health checkup, networking, trust, and social participation showed higher health-related quality of life. When people were older, their gender was female, higher BMI, number of chronic diseases, and severe stress that showed lower health-related quality of life. Conclusions: It was proved that the factors affecting the health-related quality of life of the elderly are not only physical condition and health behavior factors, but also social capital and socio-demographic characteristics. It was found that the role as a member was important.