• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2008.05a
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• pp.992-996
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• 2008

In this study, changes in precipitation across South Korea during snow seasons (November-April) and their potential are examined. Current (1973/74-2006/07) and future (2081-2100) time series of snow indices including snow season, snow-to-precipitation ratio, and snow impossible day are extracted from observed snow and precipitation data for 61 weather stations as well as observed and modeled daily temperature data. Analyses of linear trends reveal that snow seasons have shortened by 3-13 days/decade; that the snow-to-precipitation ratio (the percentage of snow days relative to precipitation days) has decreased by 4-8 %/decade. These changes are associated with pronounced formations of a positive pressure anomaly core over East Asia during the positive Arctic Oscillation winter years since the late 1980s. A snow-temperature statistical model demonstrates that the warming due to the positive core winter intensifies changes from snow to rain at the rate of $4.7cm/^{\circ}C$. The high pressure anomaly pattern has also contributed to decreases of air-sea thermal gradient which are associated with the reduction of snow could formation. Modeled data predict that a fingerprint of wintertime global warming causing changes from snow to rain will continue to be observed over the 21st century.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.40 no.3
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• pp.127-143
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• 2018

This study analyzed the influence of climate change on the spawning ground area of the common squid, Todarodes pacificus. To estimate long term changes in the area of the spawning ground of the common squid, water temperature at 50 m deep that can be inferred from sea surface temperature (SST) based on both NOAA/AVHRR (1981.07-2002.12) and MODIS/AQUA (2003.01-2009.12) ocean color data was analyzed. In addition, five climate indices, Arctic Oscillation Index (AO), Siberian High Index (SH), Aleutian Low Pressure Index (ALP), East Asia Winter Monsoon Index (EAWM) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which are the main indicators of climate changes in the northwestern Pacific were used to study the relationship between the magnitude of the estimated spawning ground and climate indices. The area of the estimated spawning ground was highly correlated with the total catch of common squid throughout four decades. The area of the estimated spawning ground was negatively correlated with SH and EAWM. Especially, PDO was negatively correlated with the area of the spawning ground in the northwestern Pacific (r = -0.39) and in the southern part of the East Sea (r = -0.38). There was a positive relationship between the AO and the area of the spawning ground in the northwestern Pacific (r = 0.46) as well as in the southern part of the East Sea (r = 0.32). Temporally, the area of the winter spawning ground in the southern part of the East Sea in the 1980s was smaller than those areas in the 1990s and 2000s, because the area was disconnected with the western coastal spawning ground of Japan in the 1980s, while the area had been made wider and more continuous from the Korea strait to the western coastal water of Honshu in the 1990s and 2000s.

• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.509-520
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• 2018

The performance of the newly designed Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model (PNU CGCM) Ensemble Forecast System which produce 40 ensemble members for 12-month lead prediction is evaluated and analyzed in terms of boreal winter temperature over South Korea (S. Korea). The influence of ensemble size on prediction skill is examined with 40 ensemble members and the result shows that spreads of predictability are larger when the size of ensemble member is smaller. Moreover, it is suggested that more than 20 ensemble members are required for better prediction of statistically significant inter-annual variability of wintertime temperature over S. Korea. As for the ensemble average (ENS), it shows superior forecast skill compared to each ensemble member and has significant temporal correlation with Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) temperature at 99% confidence level. In addition to forecast skill for inter-annual variability of wintertime temperature over S. Korea, winter climatology around East Asia and synoptic characteristics of warm (above normal) and cold (below normal) winters are reasonably captured by PNU CGCM. For the categorical forecast with $3{\times}3$ contingency table, the deterministic forecast generally shows better performance than probabilistic forecast except for warm winter (hit rate of probabilistic forecast: 71%). It is also found that, in case of concentrated distribution of 40 ensemble members to one category out of the three, the probabilistic forecast tends to have relatively high predictability. Meanwhile, in the case when the ensemble members distribute evenly throughout the categories, the predictability becomes lower in the probabilistic forecast.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.50 no.1
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• pp.1-21
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• 2015

The present study aims to characterize the synoptic climatic patterns of winter extreme low temperature events occurred in different regions of Korea based on daily temperature data observed at 61 weather stations under the supervision of the Korea Meteorological Administation and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis I data for the recent 40 years (1973~2012) period. Analyses of daily maximum and minimum temperatures below 10th percentile thresholds show that high frequencies of winter extreme low temperature events appear across the entire regions of Korea or in either the western or eastern half region divided by major mountain ridges at the 2~7 dayintervals particularly in the first half of the winter period (before mid-January). Composite analyses of surface synoptic climatic data including sea level pressure and wind vector reveal that 13 regional types of winter extreme low temperature events in Korea are closely associated with the relative location and intensity of both the Siberian high pressure and the Aleutian low pressure systems as well as major mountain ridges. Investigations of mid-troposphere (500 hPa) synoptic climatic charts demonstrate that the blocking-like upper troposphere low pressure system advecting the cold air from the Arctic toward the Korean Peninsula may provide favorable synoptic conditions for the outbreaks of winter extreme low temperature events in Korea. These results indicate that the monitoring of synoptic scale climatic systems in East Asia including the Siberian high pressure system, the Aleutian low pressure system and upper level blocking system is critical to the improvement of the predictability of winter extreme low temperature events in Korea.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.124-138
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• 2017

Physico-chemical measurement of non-refractory submicron particles($NR-PM_1$) was conducted in Baengnyeong Island, Korea using Aerodyne High Resolution Time of Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS) from 2012 to 2014. Organics and ammoniated sulfate were dominant species in $NR-PM_1$. The organics was found to have similar fractions(approximate 40%) of $NR-PM_1$ during the summer and winter, while the sulfate fractions of $NR-PM_1$ were calculated to be approximately 47% and 31% for the summer and winter, respectively, suggesting the possibility that particles provide non-acidic surfaces for condensation of nitric acid in the winter. The nitrate fractions of approximate 4% and 20% of $NR-PM_1$ were observed in August (summer) and November (winter), respectively, resulting that the relatively low concentration of sulfate in $NR-PM_1$ provided a non-acidic surface for nitric acid condensation and formation of particulate ammoniated nitrate is favored thermodynamically in winter. The new particle formation (NPF) event and particle growth rate were analyzed for each month in 2014 using Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer(SMPS). The Percent of NPF events was the highest in winter, but NPF event was not observed during summer due to relatively high temperature and frequent rainfall. The average particle growth rate was 3.5 nm/h and the highest particle growth rate was 5.5 nm/h in May. We observed the long-range transport of the anthropogenic sulfate from the East Asia during the intensive monitoring period of November between Qingdao and Baengnyeong Island in 2013. The relatively high concentrations of m/z 60 measured in HR-ToF-AMS was observed in May and June at Baengnyeong Island, suggesting the possibility of the influence of biomass burning from the East Asia to the Korean Peninsula.

• Atmosphere
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.451-461
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• 2019

Medium-range forecast is highly dependent on ensemble forecast data. However, operational weather forecasters have not enough time to digest all of detailed features revealed in ensemble forecast data. To utilize the ensemble data effectively in medium-range forecasting, representative weather patterns in East Asia in this study are defined. The k-means clustering analysis is applied for the objectivity of weather patterns. Input data used daily Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) anomaly of the ECMWF ReAnalysis-Interim (ERA-Interim) during 1981~2010 (30 years) provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Using the Explained Variance (EV), the optimal study area is defined by 20~60°N, 100~150°E. The number of clusters defined by Explained Cluster Variance (ECV) is thirty (k = 30). 30 representative weather patterns with their frequencies are summarized. Weather pattern #1 occurred all seasons, but it was about 56% in summer (June~September). The relatively rare occurrence of weather pattern (#30) occurred mainly in winter. Additionally, we investigate the relationship between weather patterns and extreme weather events such as heat wave, cold wave, and heavy rainfall as well as snowfall. The weather patterns associated with heavy rainfall exceeding 110 mm day^-1 were #1, #4, and #9 with days (%) of more than 10%. Heavy snowfall events exceeding 24 cm day^-1 mainly occurred in weather pattern #28 (4%) and #29 (6%). High and low temperature events (> 34℃ and < -14℃) were associated with weather pattern #1~4 (14~18%) and #28~29 (27~29%), respectively. These results suggest that the classification of various weather patterns will be used as a reference for grouping all ensemble forecast data, which will be useful for the scenario-based medium-range ensemble forecast in the future.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.253-264
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• 2012

In the northwestern Pacific, spawning of the common squid, Todarodes pacificus, occurs at continental shelf and slope areas of 100-500 m, and the optimum temperature for the spawning and survival of paralarvae is assumed to be $18-23^{\circ}C$. To predict the spawning ground of Todarodes pacificus under future climate conditions, we simulated the present and future ocean circulations, using an East Asia regional ocean model (Modular Ocean Model, MOM version3), projected by two different global climate models (MPI_echam5, MIROC_hires), under an IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. Mean climate states for 1990-1999 and 2030-2039 from 20th and 21th Century Climate Change model simulation (from the IPCC 4th Assessment Report) were used as surface conditions for simulations, and we examined changes in spawning ground between the 1990s and 2030s. The results revealed that the distribution of spawning ground in the 2030s in both climate models shifted northward in the East China Sea and East Sea, for both autumn and winter populations, compared to that of the 1990s. Also, the spawning area (with $1/6^{\circ}{\times}1/6^{\circ}$ grid) in the 2030s of the autumn and winter populations will decline by 11.6% (MPI_echam5) to 30.8% (MIROC_hires) and 3.0% (MPI_echam5) to 18.2% (MIROC_hires), respectively, from those of the 1990s.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.373-387
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• 2011

In this study, four types of sensitivity experiments (EG, EE, NG, NE; E: ERA-Interim, N: NCEP/DOE2, G: Grell scheme, E: Emanuel scheme) were performed to evaluate the simulation skills of RegCM4 released in July 2010 over the CORDEX (COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment) East Asia domain based on the combinations of boundary conditions (BC: ERA-Interim, NCEP/DOE2) and the cumulus parameterization schemes (CPS: Grell, Emanuel) for the 1989. The surface air temperature and precipitation data observed by the Korea Meteorological Adminstration were used to validate the simulation results over South Korea. The RegCM4 well simulates the seasonal and spatial variations of temperature but it fails to capture the seasonal and spatial variations of precipitation without consideration of the BC and CPS. Especially the simulated summer precipitation amount is significantly less in EG, NG, and NE experiments. But the seasonal variation of precipitation including summer precipitation is relatively well simulated in the EE experiment. The EE experiment shows a better skill in the seasonal march of East Asia summer monsoon, distribution of precipitation intensity and frequency than other experiments. In general, the skills of RegCM4 for temperature and precipitation are better during winter than summer, and in Emanuel than Grell schemes. The simulation results are more impacted by cumulus parameterization schemes than boundary conditions.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.32 no.7
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• pp.770-783
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• 2011

In this study, we performed a downscaling of an ECHAM5 simulated dataset for the current and future climate produced under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios A1B (SRES A1B) by utilizing the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM). The current climate simulation was performed for the period 1980-2000 and the future climate run for the period 2040-2070 for the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX)'s East Asia domain. The RSM is properly able to reproduce the climatological fields from the evaluation of the current climate simulation. Future climatological precipitation during the summer season is increased over the tropical Oceans, the maritime-continent, and Japan. In winter, on the other hand, precipitation is increased over the tropical Indian Ocean, the maritime-continents and the Western North Pacific, and decreased over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean. For the East Asia region few significant changes are detected in the precipitation climatological field. However, summer rainfall shows increasing trend after 2050 over the region. The future climate ground temperature shows a clear increasing trend in comparison with the current climate. In response to global warming, atmospheric warming is clearly detected, which strengthens the upper level trough.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2008.05a
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• pp.294-298
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• 2008

Snow cover is a potential water resource for later spring and summer seasons as well as a thermal mirror with high reflectivity causing decreases of surface air temperature during cold winter seasons. In this study, current and future changes in Northern Hemisphere snow extent and their potential linkages with atmospheric circulation are examined. The NOAA AVHRR visible snow extent (1967-2006) data as well as observational (NCEP-DOE 1979-2006) and modeled (GFDL 2.1 2081-2100) pressure and surface air temperature data are used. Analyses of observational data demonstrate that the snow extent in meteorological spring (March to April) and summer (June to August) has significantly decreased since the late 1980s. The offset of snow seasons (the timing of snow melt in spring) have also significantly advanced particularly in Europe, East Asia, and northwestern North America. Analyses of pressure fields reveal that the spatial patterns of the earlier snow melt are associated with changes in atmospheric circulation such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). In the positive winter AO years, multiple positive pressure departure cores in the upper troposphere (200hPa) are observed over the mid-latitude regions from March to mid-April, while a negative pressure departure core (70hPa) prevails over the Arctic Ocean. The reversed anomaly patterns related to later snow melt occur in negative winter AO years. The comparison between current and future thermal spring onsets suggest that snow melt patterns will intensify with larger greenhouse gas emissions, indicating earlier hydrological spring onset.