• 대기
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.241-253
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• 2007

This paper investigates summer precipitation change in East Asia according to switching surface boundary condition over South Korea and Shantung. Simulations are carried out by ECHO-G/S for 20 years (1980-1999). Surface condition over both areas in ECHO-G/S is represented by ocean (OCN experiment). In OCN experiment, the summer precipitation is considerably underestimated around the Korean peninsula (the dry region) and overestimated over the eastern Tibetan Plateau (the wet region). It may be related that the lack of the heat sources from the unrealistically prescribed land-sea mask weakens northward expansion of rainband and the development of convective precipitation. Moreover the simulated rainband retreats before June in connection with the early genesis of summer monsoon circulation. The systematic bias of the summer precipitation over the dry and wet regions are reduced comparing with the OCN experiment when the land-sea masks over South Korea and Shantung are realistically considered as land (LND experiment). These improvements can be explained by the thermodynamical dissimilarity between land and ocean. Enhanced warming by switching the areas from sea to land has led to develop the thermal low over Yellow Sea with the cyclonic circulation. Thus, this cyclonic circulation supports moistures from the south to the dry region and blocks to the wet region. The heat transport from the land surface to atmosphere plays a key role in the developing convective precipitation in local scale and maintaining the precipitation and the rainband. Therefore, this results indicate that the design of the realistic land-sea distribution is required for the accurate simulation of the regional precipitation.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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• pp.234-234
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• 2015

The global patterns of annual and extreme precipitation are projected to be altered by climate change. There are various weather systems which bring precipitation (e.g. tropical cyclone, extratropical cyclone, etc.). It is possible in some regions that multiple weather systems affect the changes of precipitation. However, previous studies have assessed only the changes of precipitation associated with individual weather systems. The relative contributions of the weather systems to the changes of precipitation have not been quantified yet. Also, the changes of the relative importance of weather systems have not been assessed. This study present the quantitative estimates of 1) the relative contributions of weather systems (tropical cyclone (TC), extratropical cyclone (ExC), and "others") to the future changes of annual and extreme precipitation and 2) the changes of the proportions of precipitation associated with each weather system in annual and extreme precipitation based on CMIP5 generation GCM outputs. Weather systems are objectively detected from twelve GCM outputs and six models are selected for further analysis considering the reproducibility of weather systems. In general, the weather system which is dominant in terms of producing precipitation in the present climate contributes the most to the changes of annual and extreme precipitation in each region. However, there are exceptions for the tendency. In East Asia, "others", which ranks the second in the proportion of annual precipitation in present climate, has the largest contribution to the increase of annual precipitation. It was found that the increase of the "others" annual precipitation in East Asia is mainly explained by the changes of that in summer season (JJA), most of which can be regarded as the summer monsoon precipitation. In Southeast Asia, "others" precipitation, the second dominant system in the present climate, has the largest contribution to the changes of very heavy precipitation (>99.9 percentile daily precipitation of historical period). Notable changes of the proportions of precipitation associated with each weather system are found mainly in subtropics, which can be regarded as the "hotspot" of the precipitation regime shift.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제4권4호
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• pp.345-356
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• 1995

Examining the precipitation data collected during the period from 1960 to 1993, we found that Taegu Station represents an optimum station for explaining the interannual variations of the precipitation in Korea. Using the variations derived from Taegu, the secular trends of the precipitation in Korea have been studied. It was 삽so found that the interannual variations of summer monsoon precipitation are consistent with those of the annual precipitation. To explore the interannual variations of the summer monsoon precipitation, comparisons of the summer precipitation in Korea with that in China and Japan were made. The results of the empirical orthogonal function analysis showed that Korea, the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valley, and the south Japan are all located in the same climate system during summer. The detailed analysis was carried out on the comparison of the summer precipitation in Korea with that in the eastern part of the the mainland China. We found that the correlation pattern is similar to the East Asia/pacific pattern. The probable effects of the sea surface temperature on the precipitation in Korea were also discussed. Key Words : Precipitation in Korea, rainy seasons in East Asia, monsoon precipitation, interannual variations.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제62권1호
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• pp.83-93
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• 2020

East Asia, which includes China, Japan, Korea, and Mongolia, is highly impacted by hydroclimate extremes such drought, flood, and typhoon recent year. In 2017, more than 18.5 million hectares of crops have been damaged in China, and Korea has suffered economic losses as a result of severe drought. Satellite-derived rainfall products are becoming more accurate as space and time resolution become increasingly higher, and provide an alternative means of estimating ground-based rainfall. In this study, we verified the availability of rainfall products by comparing widely used satellite images such as Climate Hazards Groups InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), and Precipitation Estimation From Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) with ground stations in East Asia. Also, the satellite-based rainfall products were used to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The temporal resolution is based on monthly images and compared with the past 30 years data from 1989 to 2018. The comparison between rainfall data based on each satellite image products and the data from weather station-based weather data was shown by the coefficient of determination and showed more than 0.9. Each satellite-based rainfall data was used for each grid and applied to East Asia and South Korea. As a result of SPI analysis, the RMSE values of CHIRPS were 0.57, 0.53 and 0.47, and the MAE values of 0.46, 0.43 and 0.37 were better than other satellite products. This satellite-derived rainfall estimates offers important advantages in terms of spatial coverage, timeliness and cost efficiency compared to analysis for drought assessment with ground stations.

• 대기
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.711-716
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• 2016

The dynamical model forecasts using state-of-art general circulation models (GCMs) have some limitations to simulate the real climate system since they do not depend on the past history. One of the alternative methods to correct model errors is to use the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) correction method. CCA forecasts at the present time show better skill than dynamical model forecasts especially over the midlatitudes. Model outputs are adjusted based on the CCA modes between the model forecasts and the observations. This study builds a canonical correlation prediction model for subseasonal (June) precipitation. The predictors are circulation fields over western North Pacific from the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5) and observed snow cover extent over Eurasia continent from Climate Data Record (CDR). The former is based on simultaneous teleconnection between the western North Pacific and the East Asia, and the latter on lagged teleconnection between the Eurasia continent and the East Asia. In addition, we suggest a technique for improving forecast skill by applying the ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) to individual canonical correlation predictions.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제44권3호
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• pp.185-195
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• 2023

The prolonged and heavy East Asian summer precipitation in 2020 may have been caused by an enhanced Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which requires evaluation using forecast models. We examined the performance of GloSea6, an operational forecast model, in predicting the East Asian summer precipitation during July 2020, and investigated the role of MJO in the extreme rainfall event. Two experiments, CON and EXP, were conducted using different convection schemes, 6A and 5A, respectively to simulate various aspects of MJO. The EXP runs yielded stronger forecasts of East Asian precipitation for July 2020 than the CON runs, probably due to the prominent MJO realization in the former experiment. The stronger MJO created stronger moist southerly winds associated with the western North Pacific subtropical high, which led to increased precipitation. The strengthening of the MJO was found to improve the prediction accuracy of East Asian summer precipitation. However, it is important to note that this study does not discuss the impact of changes in the convection scheme on the modulation of MJO. Further research is needed to understand other factors that could strengthen the MJO and improve the forecast.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.433-442
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• 2016

In this study, we examine future changes in surface radiation associated with cloud amount and aerosol emission over East Asia. Data in this study is HadGEM2-CC (Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2, Carbon Cycle) simulations of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6/4.5/8.5. Results show that temperature and precipitation increase with rising of the atmosphere $CO_2$. At the end of $21^{st}$ century (2070~2099) relative to the end of $20^{st}$ century (1981~2005), changes in temperature and precipitation rate are expected to increase by $+1.85^{\circ}C/+6.6%$ for RCP2.6, $+3.09^{\circ}C/+8.5%$ for RCP4.5, $+5.49^{\circ}C/10%$ for RCP8.5. The warming results from increasing Net Down Surface Long Wave Radiation Flux (LW) and Net Down Surface Short Wave Radiation Flux (SW) as well. SW change increases mainly from reduced total Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and low-level cloud amount. LW change is associated with increasing of atmospheric $CO_2$ and total cloud amount, since increasing cloud amounts are related to absorb LW radiation and remit the energy toward the surface. The enhancement of precipitation is attributed by increasing of high-level cloud amount. Such climate conditions are favorable for vegetation growth and extension. Expansion of C3 grass and shrub is distinct over East Asia, inducing large latent heat flux increment.

• 대기
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.45-60
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• 2021

The synoptic structures and precipitation impact of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) influencing on the three adjacent megacities in East Asia, i.e., Beijing (Beijing ETCs), Seoul (Seoul ETCs) and Tokyo (Tokyo ETCs), are analyzed using ERA-interim reanalysis data from 1979 to 2018. Individual ETC tracks are identified with the automated tracking algorithm applied to 850-hPa relative vorticity field. Among four seasons, ETCs are the most frequent in spring. In this season, Beijing ETCs are mainly generated at the leeside of Altai-Sayan Mountains and primarily develop through interaction between the upper-level trough and lower-level cyclonic circulation. For Seoul ETCs, the leesides of Altai-Sayan Mountains (Seoul-N ETCs) and Tibetan Plateau (Seoul-S ETCs) are main genesis regions and the features of ETCs are different according to the genesis regions. While Seoul-N ETCs mainly develope by the same mechanism of Beijing ETCs, strong diabatic heating due to vapor transport is responsible for the genesis of Seoul-S ETCs. Tokyo ETCs are originated from the leesides of Tibetan Plateau and Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension regions, and strong diabatic heating as well as interaction between upper and lower levels determines the genesis of these ETCs. The precipitation impact resulting from ETCs become strong in the order of Beijing ETCs, Seoul-N ETCs, Seoul-S ETCs, and Tokyo ETCs and accounts for up to 40%, 27%, 52%, and 70% of regional precipitation, respectively.

• 대기
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.91-99
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• 2005

This study compares the summer monsoon circulations during a heavy rainfall period over the Korean peninsular from 11 to 18 July 2004, simulated by three widely used regional models; WRF, MM5, and RSM. An identical model setup is carried out for all the experiments, except for the physical option differences in the RSM. The three models with a nominal resolution of about 50 km over Korea are nested by NCEP-DOE reanalysis data. Another RSM experiment with the same cumulus parameterization scheme as in the WRF and MM5 is designed to investigate the importance of the representation of subgrid-scale parameterized convection in reproducing monsoonal circulations in East Asia. All thee models are found to be capable of reproducing the general distribution of monsoonal precipitation, extending northeastward from south China across the Korean peninsula, to northern Japan. The results from the WRF and MM5 are similar in terms of accumulated precipitation, but a slightly better performance in the WRF than in the MM5. The RSM improves the bias for precipitation as compared to those from the WRF and MM5, but the pattern correlation is degraded due to overestimation of precipitation in northern China. In the comparison of simulated synoptic scale features, the RSM is found to reproduce the large-scale features well compared to the results from the MM5 and WRF. On the other hand, the simulated precipitation from the RSM with the convection scheme used in the MM5 and WRF is closer to that from the WRF and MM5 simulations, indicating the significant dependency of simulated precipitation in East Asia on the cumulus parameterization scheme.

• 대기
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.293-309
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• 2020

There are lots of indices that define the intensity of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in climate systems. This paper assesses the prediction skill for EASM indices in a Global Seasonal Forecasting System (GloSea5) that is currently operating at KMA. Total 5 different types of EASM indices (WNPMI, EAMI, WYI, GUOI, and SAHI) are selected to investigate how well GloSea5 reproduces them using hindcasts with 12 ensemble members with 1~3 lead months. Each index from GloSea5 is compared to that from ERA-Interim. Hindcast results for the period 1991~2010 show the highest prediction skill for WNPMI which is defined as the difference between the zonal winds at 850 hPa over East China Sea and South China Sea. WYI, defined as the difference between the zonal winds of upper and lower level over the Indian Ocean far from East Asia, is comparatively well captured by GloSea5. Though the prediction skill for EAMI which is defined by using meridional winds over areas of East Asia and Korea directly affected by EASM is comparatively low, it seems that EAMI is useful for predicting the variability of precipitation by EASM over East Asia. The regressed atmospheric fields with EASM index and the correlation with precipitation also show that GloSea5 best predicts the synoptic environment of East Asia for WNPMI among 5 EASM indices. Note that the result in this study is limited to interpret only for GloSea5 since the prediction skill for EASM index depends greatly on climate forecast model systems.