• Title/Summary/Keyword: Earth system model

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Future Change Using the CMIP5 MME and Best Models: II. The Thermodynamic and Dynamic Analysis on Near and Long-Term Future Climate Change over East Asia (CMIP5 MME와 Best 모델의 비교를 통해 살펴본 미래전망: II. 동아시아 단·장기 미래기후전망에 대한 열역학적 및 역학적 분석)

  • Kim, Byeong-Hee;Moon, Hyejin;Ha, Kyung-Ja
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.249-260
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    • 2015
  • The changes in thermodynamic and dynamic aspects on near (2025~2049) and long-term (2075~2099) future climate changes between the historical run (1979~2005) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 run with 20 coupled models which employed in the phase five of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) over East Asia (EA) and the Korean Peninsula are investigated as an extended study for Moon et al. (2014) study noted that the 20 models' multi-model ensemble (MME) and best five models' multi-model ensemble (B5MME) have a different increasing trend of precipitation during the boreal winter and summer, in spite of a similar increasing trend of surface air temperature, especially over the Korean Peninsula. Comparing the MME and B5MME, the dynamic factor (the convergence of mean moisture by anomalous wind) and the thermodynamic factor (the convergence of anomalous moisture by mean wind) in terms of moisture flux convergence are analyzed. As a result, the dynamic factor causes the lower increasing trend of precipitation in B5MME than the MME during the boreal winter and summer over EA. However, over the Korean Peninsula, the dynamic factor causes the lower increasing trend of precipitation in B5MME than the MME during the boreal winter, whereas the thermodynamic factor causes the higher increasing trend of precipitation in B5MME than the MME during the boreal summer. Therefore, it can be noted that the difference between MME and B5MME on the change in precipitation is affected by dynamic (thermodynamic) factor during the boreal winter (summer) over the Korean Peninsula.

Validation and selection of GCPs obtained from ERS SAR and the SRTM DEM: Application to SPOT DEM Construction

  • Jung, Hyung-Sup;Hong, Sang-Hoon;Won, Joong-Sun
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.483-496
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    • 2008
  • Qualified ground control points (GCPs) are required to construct a digital elevation model (DEM) from a pushbroom stereo pair. An inverse geolocation algorithm for extracting GCPs from ERS SAR data and the SRTM DEM was recently developed. However, not all GCPs established by this method are accurate enough for direct application to the geometric correction of pushbroom images such as SPOT, IRS, etc, and thus a method for selecting and removing inaccurate points from the sets of GCPs is needed. In this study, we propose a method for evaluating GCP accuracy and winnowing sets of GCPs through orientation modeling of pushbroom image and validate performance of this method using SPOT stereo pair of Daejon City. It has been found that the statistical distribution of GCP positional errors is approximately Gaussian without bias, and that the residual errors estimated by orientation modeling have a linear relationship with the positional errors. Inaccurate GCPs have large positional errors and can be iteratively eliminated by thresholding the residual errors. Forty-one GCPs were initially extracted for the test, with mean the positional error values of 25.6m, 2.5m and -6.1m in the X-, Y- and Z-directions, respectively, and standard deviations of 62.4m, 37.6m and 15.0m. Twenty-one GCPs were eliminated by the proposed method, resulting in the standard deviations of the positional errors of the 20 final GCPs being reduced to 13.9m, 8.5m and 7.5m in the X-, Y- and Z-directions, respectively. Orientation modeling of the SPOT stereo pair was performed using the 20 GCPs, and the model was checked against 15 map-based points. The root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the model were 10.4m, 7.1m and 12.1m in X-, Y- and Z-directions, respectively. A SPOT DEM with a 20m ground resolution was successfully constructed using a automatic matching procedure.

Experimental study on the ground movement due to consecutive construction of retaining wall and underground space in cohesionless soil (사질토 지반에서 흙막이벽체-지하공간 연속 굴착에 따른 지반거동에 대한 실험적 연구)

  • Park, Jong-Deok;Yu, Jeong-Seon;Kim, Do-Youp;Lee, Seok-Won
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.267-281
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    • 2015
  • The ground movement and changes in earth pressure due to the consecutive construction of retaining wall and underground space were studied experimentally. A soil tank having 160 cm in length and 120 cm in height, was manufactured to simulate the vertical excavation like retaining wall by using 10 separated right side walls and underground space excavation like tunnel by using 5 separated bottom walls. The variation of earth pressure and surface settlement were measured according to the excavation stages. The results showed that the decrease of earth pressure due to the wall movement can cause the increase of earth pressure of the neighboring walls proving the arching effect. Experiments simulating continuous construction sequence also identified arching effect, however only 50% of earth pressure was restored on the 10th right side wall due to the movement of 1st bottom side wall unusually.

An Affordable Implementation of Kalman Filter by Eliminating the Explicit Temporal Evolution of the Background Error Covariance Matrix (칼만필터의 자료동화 활용을 위한 배경오차 공분산의 명시적 시간 진전 제거)

  • Lim, Gyu-Ho;Suh, Ae-Sook;Ha, Ji-Hyun
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.33-37
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    • 2013
  • In meteorology, exploitation of Kalman filter as a data assimilation system is virtually impossible due to simultaneous requirements of adjoint model and large computer resource. The other substitute of utilizing ensemble Kalman filter is only affordable by compensating an enormous usage of computing resource. Furthermore, the latter employs ensemble integration sets for evolving the background error covariance matrix by compensating the dynamical feature of the temporal evolution of weather conditions. We propose a new implementation method that works without the adjoint model by utilizing the explicit expression of the background error covariance matrix in backward evolution. It will also break a barrier in the evolution of the covariance matrix. The method may be applied with a slight modification to the real time assimilation or the retrospective analysis.

Effect of Aerosol Feedback on Solar Radiation in the Korean Peninsula Using WRF-CMAQ Two-way Coupled Model (WRF-CMAQ 결합모델을 이용한 에어로졸 피드백 효과가 한반도 일사량에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Yoo, Jung-Woo;Park, Soon-Young;Jeon, WonBae;Kim, Dong-Hyeok;Lee, HwaWoon;Lee, Soon-Hwan;Kim, Hyun-Goo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.435-444
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    • 2017
  • In this study, we investigated the effect of aerosol feedback on $PM_{10}$ simulation using a two-way coupled air quality model (WRF-CMAQ). $PM_{10}$ concentration over Korea in January 2014 was simulated, and the aerosol feedback effect on the simulated solar radiation was intensively examined. Two $PM_{10}$ simulations were conducted using the WRF-CMAQ model with (FB) and without(NFB) the aerosol feedback option. We find that the simulated solar radiation in the west part of Korea decreased by up to $-80MJ/m^2$ due to the aerosol feedback effect. The feedback effect was significant in the west part of Korea, showing high $PM_{10}$ estimates due to dense emissions and its long-range transport from China. The aerosol feedback effect contributed to the decreased rRMSE(relative Root Mean Square Error) for solar radiation (47.58% to 30.75%). Aerosol feedback effect on the simulated solar radiation was mainly affected by concentration of $PM_{10}$. Moreover, FB better matched the observed solar radiation and $PM_{10}$ concentration than NFB, implying that taking into account the aerosol direct effects resulted in the improved modeling performance. These results indicate that aerosol feedback effects can play an important role in the simulation of solar radiation over Korean Peninsula.

Numerical Study on the Air Cooling Effect due to Increased Albedo in Urban Area (알베도 증가에 따른 도시 기온 하강 효과에 관한 수치연구)

  • Lee, Hyun-Ju;Lee, Kwi-Ok;Lee, Soon-Hwan;Lee, Hwa-Woon
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.383-392
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    • 2008
  • In order to clarify the influence of the change of urban surface albedo on mesoscale meteorological factors during the summertime, numerical experiments with various albedo of urban surface were carried out. Numerical model used in this study is PSU/NCAR MM5 V3.6. As a result of the numerical simulation intended of Busan assumed the increase of albedo of roofs, buildings, or roads, the increase of albedo can make decrease radiation effect of surface, so that it caused drops in ambient air temperature from $0.5^{\circ}C$ to $1^{\circ}C$ on the average, and the downtown of Busan formed along the trough presented a substantial drop in ambient air temperature about $1.5^{\circ}C$. Modeling studies suggest the increased surface albedo in urban area can reduce surface and air temperatures near the ground and affect related meteorological parameters such as winds and the depth of the mixed boundary layer.

Classification of Wind Sector for Assessment of Wind Resource in South Korea (남한지역 풍력자원 평가를 위한 바람권역 분류)

  • Jung, Woo-Sik;Kim, Hyun-Goo;Lee, Hwa-Woon;Park, Jong-Kil;Lee, Soon-Hwan;Choi, Hyun-Jung;Kim, Dong-Hyuk
    • 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.318-321
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    • 2008
  • We classified wind sectors according to the wind features in South Korea. In order to get the information of wind speed and wind direction, we used and improved on the atmospheric numerical model. We made use of detailed topographical data such as terrain height data of an interval of 3 seconds and landuse data produced at ministry of environment, Republic of Korea. The result of simulated wind field was improved. We carried out the cluster analysis to classify the wind sectors using the K-means clustering. South Korea was classified as 10 wind sectors which have a clear wind features.

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Influence of Isoprene Emissions on Ozone Concentrations in the Greater Busan Area during a High Ozone Episode in 2006 (2006년 오존 고농도 사례 시 부산권 지역 isoprene 배출이 오존 농도에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Yoo-Keun;Jo, Young-Soon;Song, Sang-Keun;Kang, Yoon-Hee;Oh, In-Bo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.19 no.7
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    • pp.829-841
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    • 2010
  • The estimation of a biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC, especially isoprene) and the influence of isoprene emissions on ozone concentrations in the Greater Busan Area (GBA) were carried out based on a numerical modeling approach during a high ozone episode. The BVOC emissions were estimated using a biogenic emission information system (BEIS v3.14) with vegetation data provided by the forest geographical information system (FGIS), land use data provided by the environmental geographical information system (EGIS), and meteorological data simulated by the MM5. Ozone simulation was performed by two sets of simulation scenarios: (1) without (CASE1) and (2) with isoprene emissions (CASE2). The isoprene emission (82 ton $day^{-1}$) in the GBA was estimated to be the most dominant BVOC followed by methanol (56) and carbon monoxide (28). Largest impacts of isoprene emissions on the ozone concentrations (CASE2-CASE1) were predicted to be about 4 ppb in inland locations where a high isoprene was emitted and to be about 2 ppb in the downwind and/or convergence regions of wind due to both the photochemical reaction of ozone precursors (e.g., high isoprene emissions) and meteorological conditions (e.g., local transport).

A Comparative Evaluation of Multiple Meteorological Datasets for the Rice Yield Prediction at the County Level in South Korea (우리나라 시군단위 벼 수확량 예측을 위한 다종 기상자료의 비교평가)

  • Cho, Subin;Youn, Youjeong;Kim, Seoyeon;Jeong, Yemin;Kim, Gunah;Kang, Jonggu;Kim, Kwangjin;Cho, Jaeil;Lee, Yangwon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.337-357
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    • 2021
  • Because the growth of paddy rice is affected by meteorological factors, the selection of appropriate meteorological variables is essential to build a rice yield prediction model. This paper examines the suitability of multiple meteorological datasets for the rice yield modeling in South Korea, 1996-2019, and a hindcast experiment for rice yield using a machine learning method by considering the nonlinear relationships between meteorological variables and the rice yield. In addition to the ASOS in-situ observations, we used CRU-JRA ver. 2.1 and ERA5 reanalysis. From the multiple meteorological datasets, we extracted the four common variables (air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and precipitation) and analyzed the characteristics of each data and the associations with rice yields. CRU-JRA ver. 2.1 showed an overall agreement with the other datasets. While relative humidity had a rare relationship with rice yields, solar radiation showed a somewhat high correlation with rice yields. Using the air temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation of July, August, and September, we built a random forest model for the hindcast experiments of rice yields. The model with CRU-JRA ver. 2.1 showed the best performance with a correlation coefficient of 0.772. The solar radiation in the prediction model had the most significant importance among the variables, which is in accordance with the generic agricultural knowledge. This paper has an implication for selecting from multiple meteorological datasets for rice yield modeling.

RAM Modeling and Analysis of Earth Observation Constellation Satellites (지구관측 군집위성의 RAM 모델링 및 분석)

  • Hongrae Kim;Seong-keun Jeong;Hyun-Ung Oh
    • Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.11-20
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    • 2024
  • In the recent era of NewSpace, unlike high-reliability satellites of the past, low-reliability satellites are being developed and mass-produced at a lower cost to launch constellations satellites. To achieve cost-effective cluster satellite development, satellite users and developers need to assess the feasibility of maintaining mission performance over the expected lifespan when cluster satellites are launched. Plans for replacements due to random failures should also be established to maintain performance. This study proposed a method for assessing system reliability and availability to maintain mission performance and establish replacement strategies for Earth observation constellation satellites. In this study, a constellation reliability and availability model considering mission performance required for a satellite constellation, situations of satellite backup, and additional ground backups was established. The reliability model was structured based on the concept of a k-out-of-n system and the availability model used a Markov chain model. Based on the proposed reliability model, the minimum number of satellites required to meet mission requirements was defined and satellites needed in orbit during the required mission period to satisfy mission reliability were calculated. This research also analyzed the number of spare satellites in orbit and on the ground required to meet the desired availability during required service period through availability analysis.