• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.109-121
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• 2022

Purpose - This study investigates how earnings volatility influences current stock price informativeness about expectations of future earnings. Design/methodology/approach - I adopt the FERC model developed by Collins et al. (1994) and modified by Lundholm and Myers (2002) to investigate the connection between earnings volatility and future earnings reflected in current returns. I define five-year rolling standard deviations of earnings and components as earnings volatility measures and the degree of deviation of earnings from cash flows over the same five-year, which is developed by Jayaraman (2008). Finding - My results show that earnings volatility delays current stock price response to future operation expectations. They also verify that as earnings are more divergent from cash flows, current returns are less timely incorporating value-relevant future operation. Research implications or Originality This study shows that when volatile earnings deliver obscure and unreliable information about future operation expectations, they cause the market to be conflicting in understandings their implications and make it difficult in attaining correct future cashflow estimates.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권5호
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• pp.31-40
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• 2020

This study investigates whether other comprehensive income (OCI) reported in the statement of comprehensive income (one of the main financial statements after the adoption of K-IFRS) predicts a firm's future performance. Using the quarterly data of Korean listed companies, we examine the association between OCI estimates and future earnings. First of all, we find that OCI is positively associated with earnings in both 1- and 2-quarter ahead, supporting the predictive value of OCI. When we break down OCI into its individual components, our results suggest that the net unrealized gains/losses on available-for-sale (AFS) investment securities are positively associated with future earnings, while the other components (e.g., net unrealized gains/losses on valuation of cash flow hedge derivatives) present insignificant results. In addition, we investigate whether the reliability in OCI estimates enhances the predictive value of OCI to predict future performance. We find that the predictive ability of OCI, in particular the net unrealized gains/losses on available-for-sale (AFS) investment securities, becomes more pronounced when firms are audited by the Big 4 audit firms. Overall, our study suggests that information content embedded in OCI can provide decision-useful information that is helpful for the prediction of future firm performance.

• Asia Pacific Journal of Business Review
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.1-34
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• 2019

This study investigates whether and how a firm's cost of equity capital is influenced by the extent of a firm's real earnings management (REM). Using a large sample of Hong Kong and Chinese firms over the 9-year period 2009-2017, we find that our implied cost of equity estimates are positively associated with both the extent of REM and the extent of accrual-based earnings management (AEM), but the positive association is stronger for REM than for AEM. We also provide evidence suggesting that the effect of AEM and REM on the cost of equity is more pronounced for Hong Kong firms than Chinese firms, and within Chinese firms, it is less pronounced for the state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Collectively, our results suggest that while both REM and AEM exacerbate the quality of earnings used by outside investors, REM does so to a greater extent than AEM, and thus the market demands a higher risk premium for REM activities than for AEM activities and that this cost of capital-increase effect is more prominent in a developed market like Hong Kong and mitigated by state ownership in China because of investors' expectations for a lower level of detriments to firm fundamentals by REM due to government's protection in a less developed market like China.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권9호
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• pp.189-199
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• 2021

This study attempts to examine the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosure and earnings management practices in the context of Saudi Arabia after mandatory IFRS adoption. It is carried out on an unbalanced panel of 277 observations over the period 2017-2019. For this purpose, CSR disclosure is measured by Bloomberg ESG scores, while the residuals from the modified Jones model are considered for earnings management. As control variables, we have retained the firm performance, market-to-book ratio, firm size, financial leverage, board independence, ownership concentration, managerial ownership, and lagged discretionary accruals. Using the system GMM estimator in the dynamic panel, the results show a positive association between CSR disclosure and earnings management practices, thus supporting the perspective of agency theory. Managers engage in socially responsible activities beforehand to conceal their wrongdoing and convince stakeholders that the organization is transparent. They probably use ethical codes as a tool to achieve their own goals rather than the firm's goals. Our contribution is the use of recent data (2017-2019) taking into account the mandatory adoption of IFRS in Saudi Arabia. Additionally, to our knowledge, this study is the first to address CSR disclosure and earnings management practices using GMM system estimates.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.99-106
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• 2023

Purpose: This study aims to analyze the distribution of the role of adversity quotient in the estimation bias of future earnings. Adversity quotient is a cognitive ability that can be distributed as a reducer of bias effects that occur in profit forecasting or investment decision making. Research design, data and methodology: The study designs a full factorial within-subject 2×3 as a laboratory experiment. The study subjects are 30 accounting students who are proxied as investors. Results: The results show that the estimated earnings made by investors experience anchoring-adjustment heuristic bias which means the initial value becomes a basic belief that influences the decisions taken by investors. However, this study also provides evidence that heuristic bias can be reduced by the presence of adversity quotient. Investors who have high adversity ability are abler to reduce the estimation bias when compared to investors who have medium and low adversity ability so the higher the difficulty ability possessed by investors, the less likely the occurrence of bias in decision making. Conclusion: Thus, the adversity quotient is proven to be distributed as a reducing opportunity from the bias that will occur in estimating future earnings or making investment decisions.

• 노동경제논집
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.79-115
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• 2012

본 연구는 우리나라의 세대 간 소득탄력성을 보다 정확히 측정하고자 시도하였다. 먼저 선행연구들에서 세대 간 소득탄력성 추정치가 낮았던 주요한 이유는 표본 선택 문제에서 기인함을 보였고, 이러한 문제를 수정한 OLS추정치는 선행연구들에 비해 다소 높았다. 또한 희귀분석에서 발생하는 하향편의를 희귀분석 방법에 의해 항상소득과 임시소득의 분산을 추정하여 계산하였다. 추가적으로 다른 표본들을 연결하여 도구변수 추정을 함으로써 표본 선택 문제가 야기할 수 있는 편의 정도의 범위를 설정하고자 시도하였는데 이러한 방법들에 의한 추정 결과는 단순 희귀분석에 의한 결과와 비슷하거나 다소 높았다.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.39-46
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• 2020

Purpose: This study looks at the relevance between discretionary revenue and book-tax differences (hereafter BTDs). While the study of earnings management, which focused on discretionary accruals and real earnings management, has largely made, it has not yet been actively researched on discretionary revenues. Therefore, it was believed that discretionary revenue would expand the preceding study by looking at its relevance to BTD, known as financial reporting quality and measures of tax avoidance. In general, prior research suggested that earnings management make BTDs larger. Thus, the relationship between discretionary revenue and the amount of BTD is predicted positive. Research design, data and methodology: To this end, the method of discretionary revenues was used and BTDs measured in four ways. First, Earnings before income tax - estimated taxable income divided by total asset (BTD). Second is fractional rank variable of BTDs (FBTD). Third is Indicator variable equals 1 if the firm-year has a positive BTD, 0 otherwise (PBTD). Fourth is that Indicator variable equals 1 if the firm-year has a BTDs in top(bottom) quartile, 0 otherwise (LPBTD, LNBTD). 4,251 samples were analyzed in the Korean Security market (KOSPI) from 2003 to 2014. Results Empirical analysis shows that BTDs increases as discretionary revenue increases. These results were equally observed when BTDs was measured as a ranking variable or as a indicating variable. These results indicate that earnings management through the revenue of managers exacerbate the quality of financial reporting. Conclusions: In sum, discretionary revenues can be used as an indicator of making BTDs larger and meaningful as the first study of the Korean capital market where discretionary revenues affect accounting information quality. Investors need to increase interest in discretionary revenues because intervention in financial reporting through revenue accounts by managers can increase information asymmetry and agency costs. This means that studies on discretionary revenues that have been relatively small should be expanded. The results also provide important implications for the relevant authorities and investors. Despite these benefits, however, measurement error problems with estimates still appear as limited points, and prudent interpretations are required, and additional follow-up studies are needed in that variables that are not yet considered in this study may affect our findings.

• 노동경제논집
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• 제41권4호
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• pp.31-62
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• 2018

본 연구는 '예상하지 못한 입원'으로 정의한 건강 충격이 40~55세 중장년층 전일제 임금근로자의 일자리와 소득 수준에 미치는 영향을 단기 효과와 이후 3년간의 중기 효과로 나누어 분석하였다. 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 건강 충격 발생 이후 직접비용인 의료비 지출의 증가는 단기적인 효과만 유의하게 나타난다. 그러나 간접비용인 노동시장 참여 및 근로소득의 변화는 건강 충격 발생 이후 3년까지 지속된다. 둘째, 간접비용의 변화는 건강 충격발생 이전의 사회경제적 지위와 일자리 특성에 따라 다르게 나타난다. 고소득층은 저소득층에 비해 건강 충격 발생 이전 일자리에서 이탈할 위험이 낮은 반면, 저소득층은 원래의 전일제 근로상태에서 이탈할 가능성이 높아진다. 또한, 건강 충격을 경험한 비정규직 근로자는 정규직 근로자에 비해 전일제 근로 일자리를 잃을 가능성이 크다. 그러나 동일한 비정규직이라도 사업체 규모에 따라 경험하는 위험 정도는 달라지는데, 대기업에서 근로하는 비정규직은 소규모 기업에서 근로하는 비정규직보다 노동시장에서 이탈할 위험이 낮은 것으로 나타난다.

• 재무관리연구
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.1-24
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• 2008

본 논문은 애널리스트들의 과대예측 여부와 서울소재 기업 및 지방소재 기업의 경우 어느 쪽이 과대예측의 정도가 심한지를 분석하였고, 기업실적에 관한 추정치들과 실측치들을 비교하여 얼마만큼 애널리스트 예측이 정확한지, 또한 기업 본사가 서울과 지방에 위치함에 따라 애널리스트들의 예측 정확성 및 주가영향력에 차이가 존재하는지를 실증 분석하였다. 그 결과, 애널리스트들은 매출액, 영업이익, 순이익 모두에 있어서 과대 예측하는 경향이 있음이 발견되었고, 기업의 본사가 지방인 경우가 서울인 경우에 비하여 과대예측 정도가 심한 것으로 나타났다. 애널리스트의 이익예측 정확도는 지방소재 기업보다 서울소재 기업에 대해 더 높은 것으로 나타났다. 애널리스트 보고서 공표의 주가영향력은 투자의견의 하향의 경우 서울소재 기업의 주가는 하락하기 보다는 오히려 상승하였으며, 목표주가 하향의 경우에도 서울소재 기업의 주가가 덜 하락하여 전반적으로 서울소재 기업에 대한 주가영향력이 보다 긍정적으로 나타났다. 한편, 외국인 지분율이 높은 기업일수록 투자의견 하향시에는 주가가 덜 부정적으로, 목표주가 하향시에는 주가가 더 부정적으로 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.715-725
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• 2014

본 연구는 분위수회귀분석을 이용하여 한국의 세대 간 경제적 이동성을 분석한다. 분석에는 1998년부터 2008년까지의 한국노동패널조사 (KLIPS) 자료가 이용되었다. 분석결과, (1) 부모 소득영향력은 자녀소득의 조건부분포의 하위 분위수에서는 상대적으로 작고 상위 분위수로 갈수록 더 커지는 것으로 나타났다. 이것은 자녀소득 분포의 상위분위수로 갈수록 세대 간 경제적 이동성은 떨어지며 가구별 경제적 신분이 세대에 걸쳐 고착될 가능성이 높아지는 것을 의미한다. (2) 한편 교육효과를 제어하면 이러한 부모 소득 영향력은 감소하였다. (3) 대학교육 효과는 소득분포의 상위 분위수로 갈수록 더 높아져서 자녀의 대학교육이 세대 간에 소득이 이전되는 중요한 통로인 것으로 나타났다. (4) 마지막으로 분위수회귀분석결과로부터 자녀소득의 조건부분포를 비모수적으로 추정하고 추정된 곡선 그림을 이용하여 추가적인 시각적 특징들을 도출하였다.