• Title/Summary/Keyword: Dynamic accuracy estimation

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Estimation of Concrete Durability Subjected to Freeze-Thaw Based on Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망 기반 동결융해 작용을 받는 콘크리트의 내구성능 평가)

  • Khaliunaa Darkhanbat;Inwook Heo;Seung-Ho Choi;Kang Su Kim
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.144-151
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    • 2023
  • In this study, a database was established by collecting experimental results on various concrete mixtures subjected to freeze-thaw cycles, based on which an artificial neural network-based prediction model was developed to estimate durability resistance of concrete. A regression analysis was also conducted to derive an equation for estimating relative dynamic modulus of elasticity subjected to freeze-thaw loads. The error rate and coefficient of determination of the proposed artificial neural network model were approximately 11% and 0.72, respectively, and the regression equation also provided very similar accuracy. Thus, it is considered that the proposed artificial neural network model and regression equation can be used for estimating relative dynamic modulus of elasticity for various concrete mixtures subjected to freeze-thaw loads.

Accuracy Evaluation of Composite Hybrid Surface Rainfall (HSR) Using KMA Weather Radar Network (기상청 기상레이더 관측망을 이용한 합성 하이브리드 고도면 강우량(HSR)의 정확도 검증)

  • Lyu, Geunsu;Jung, Sung-Hwa;Oh, Young-a;Park, Hong-Mok;Lee, GyuWon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.38 no.7
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    • pp.496-510
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    • 2017
  • This study presents a new nationwide quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) based on the hybrid surface rainfall (HSR) technique using the weather radar network of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). This new nationwide HSR is characterized by the synthesis of reflectivity at the hybrid surface that is not affected by ground clutter, beam blockage, non-meteorological echoes, and bright band. The nationwide HSR is classified into static (STATIC) and dynamic HSR (DYNAMIC) mosaic depending on employing a quality control process, which is based on the fuzzy logic approach for single-polarization radar and the spatial texture technique for dual-polarization radar. The STATIC and DYNAMIC were evaluated by comparing with official and operational radar rainfall mosaic (MOSAIC) of KMA for 10 rainfall events from May to October 2014. The correlation coefficients within the block region of STATIC, DYNAMIC and MOSAIC are 0.52, 0.78, and 0.69, respectively, and their mean relative errors are 34.08, 30.08, and 40.71%.

Modified Empirical Formula of Dynamic Amplification Factor for Wind Turbine Installation Vessel (해상풍력발전기 설치선박의 수정 동적증폭계수 추정식)

  • Ma, Kuk-Yeol;Park, Joo-Shin;Lee, Dong-Hun;Seo, Jung-Kwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.846-855
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    • 2021
  • Eco-friendly and renewable energy sources are actively being researched in recent times, and of shore wind power generation requires advanced design technologies in terms of increasing the capacities of wind turbines and enlarging wind turbine installation vessels (WTIVs). The WTIV ensures that the hull is situated at a height that is not affected by waves. The most important part of the WTIV is the leg structure, which must respond dynamically according to the wave, current, and wind loads. In particular, the wave load is composed of irregular waves, and it is important to know the exact dynamic response. The dynamic response analysis uses a single degree of freedom (SDOF) method, which is a simplified approach, but it is limited owing to the consideration of random waves. Therefore, in industrial practice, the time-domain analysis of random waves is based on the multi degree of freedom (MDOF) method. Although the MDOF method provides high-precision results, its data convergence is sensitive and difficult to apply owing to design complexity. Therefore, a dynamic amplification factor (DAF) estimation formula is developed in this study to express the dynamic response characteristics of random waves through time-domain analysis based on different variables. It is confirmed that the calculation time can be shortened and accuracy enhanced compared to existing MDOF methods. The developed formula will be used in the initial design of WTIVs and similar structures.

A Failure Probability Estimation Method of Nonlinear Bridge Structures using the Non-Gaussian Closure Method (Non-Gaussian Closure 기법을 적용한 비선형 교량 구조계의 파괴확률 추정 기법)

  • Hahm, Dae-Gi;Koh, Hyun-Moo;Park, Kwan-Soon
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2010
  • A method is presented for evaluating the seismic failure probability of bridge structures which show a nonlinear hysteretic dynamic behavior. Bridge structures are modeled as a bilinear dynamic system with a single degree of freedom. We regarded that the failure of bridges will occur when the displacement response of a deck level firstly crosses the predefined limit state during a duration of strong motion. For the estimation of the first-crossing probability of a nonlinear structural system excited by earthquake motion, we computed the average frequency of crossings of the limit state. We presented the non-Gaussian closure method for the approximation of the joint probability density function of response and its derivative, which is required for the estimation of the average frequency of crossings. The failure probabilities are estimated according to the various artificial earthquake acceleration sets representing specific seismic characteristics. For the verification of the accuracy and efficiency of presented method, we compared the estimated failure probabilities with the results evaluated from previous methods and the exact values estimated with the crude Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Dynamic forecasts of bankruptcy with Recurrent Neural Network model (RNN(Recurrent Neural Network)을 이용한 기업부도예측모형에서 회계정보의 동적 변화 연구)

  • Kwon, Hyukkun;Lee, Dongkyu;Shin, Minsoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.139-153
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    • 2017
  • Corporate bankruptcy can cause great losses not only to stakeholders but also to many related sectors in society. Through the economic crises, bankruptcy have increased and bankruptcy prediction models have become more and more important. Therefore, corporate bankruptcy has been regarded as one of the major topics of research in business management. Also, many studies in the industry are in progress and important. Previous studies attempted to utilize various methodologies to improve the bankruptcy prediction accuracy and to resolve the overfitting problem, such as Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model (GLM). These methods are based on statistics. Recently, researchers have used machine learning methodologies such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Furthermore, fuzzy theory and genetic algorithms were used. Because of this change, many of bankruptcy models are developed. Also, performance has been improved. In general, the company's financial and accounting information will change over time. Likewise, the market situation also changes, so there are many difficulties in predicting bankruptcy only with information at a certain point in time. However, even though traditional research has problems that don't take into account the time effect, dynamic model has not been studied much. When we ignore the time effect, we get the biased results. So the static model may not be suitable for predicting bankruptcy. Thus, using the dynamic model, there is a possibility that bankruptcy prediction model is improved. In this paper, we propose RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) which is one of the deep learning methodologies. The RNN learns time series data and the performance is known to be good. Prior to experiment, we selected non-financial firms listed on the KOSPI, KOSDAQ and KONEX markets from 2010 to 2016 for the estimation of the bankruptcy prediction model and the comparison of forecasting performance. In order to prevent a mistake of predicting bankruptcy by using the financial information already reflected in the deterioration of the financial condition of the company, the financial information was collected with a lag of two years, and the default period was defined from January to December of the year. Then we defined the bankruptcy. The bankruptcy we defined is the abolition of the listing due to sluggish earnings. We confirmed abolition of the list at KIND that is corporate stock information website. Then we selected variables at previous papers. The first set of variables are Z-score variables. These variables have become traditional variables in predicting bankruptcy. The second set of variables are dynamic variable set. Finally we selected 240 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the first variable set. Likewise, we selected 229 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the second variable set. We created a model that reflects dynamic changes in time-series financial data and by comparing the suggested model with the analysis of existing bankruptcy predictive models, we found that the suggested model could help to improve the accuracy of bankruptcy predictions. We used financial data in KIS Value (Financial database) and selected Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model called logistic regression (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model as benchmark. The result of the experiment proved that RNN's performance was better than comparative model. The accuracy of RNN was high in both sets of variables and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value was also high. Also when we saw the hit-ratio table, the ratio of RNNs that predicted a poor company to be bankrupt was higher than that of other comparative models. However the limitation of this paper is that an overfitting problem occurs during RNN learning. But we expect to be able to solve the overfitting problem by selecting more learning data and appropriate variables. From these result, it is expected that this research will contribute to the development of a bankruptcy prediction by proposing a new dynamic model.

Estimation on Heavy Handling Robot using Flexible-Rigid Multibody Analysis (변형체-강체 다물체 해석을 이용한 초중량물 핸들링로봇의 평가)

  • Kim, Jin-Kwang;Ko, Hae-Ju;Park, Ki-Beom;Kim, Tae-Gyu;Jung, Yoon-Gyo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.46-52
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    • 2010
  • A flexible-rigid multibody analysis was pen armed to examine the dynamic response of a heavy handling robot system under a worst motion scenario. A rigid body dynamics analysis was solved and compared with flexible-rigid multibody analysis. The modal analysis and test were also carried out to establish the accuracy and the validation of the finite element model used in this paper. For the flexible-rigid multibody simulation, stresses in several major bodies were interested, so that those parts are flexible and other parts are modeled as rigid body in order to reduce computer resources.

Updating Algorithms of Finite Element Model Using Singular Value Decomposition and Eigenanalysis (특이값 분해와 고유치해석을 이용한 유한요소모델의 개선)

  • 김홍준;박영필
    • Journal of KSNVE
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.163-173
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    • 1999
  • Precise and reasonable modelling is necessary and indispensable to the analysis of dynamic characteristics of mechanical structures. Also. the effective prediction of the change of modal properties due to the variation of design parameters is required especially for the application of finite element method to the structural dynamics problems. To meet those necessity and requirement, three model updating algorithms are proposed for finite element methods. Those algorithms are based on sensitivity analysis of the modal data obtained from experimental modal analysis(EMA) and analytical modal analysis(AMA). The adapted sensitivity analysis methods of the algorithms are 1)eigensensitivity(EGNS) method. 2)frequency response function sensitivity(FRFS) method. 3)sensitivity based element-by-element method (SBEEM), Singular value decomposition(SVD) is used for performing eigenanalysis and parameter estimation in the updating process. Those algorithms are applied to finite element of a plate and the updating capability of each algorithm is compared in terms of accuracy. reliability and stability of the updating process. It is shown that the model updating method using frequency response function is superior to the other methods in view of various updating capabilities.

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Error Correction of Interested Points Tracking for Improving Registration Accuracy of Aerial Image Sequences (항공연속영상 등록 정확도 향상을 위한 특징점추적 오류검정)

  • Sukhee, Ochirbat;Yoo, Hwan-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.93-97
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    • 2010
  • This paper presents the improved KLT(Kanade-Lucas-Tomasi) of registration of Image sequence captured by camera mounted on unmanned helicopter assuming without camera attitude information. It consists of following procedures for the proposed image registration. The initial interested points are detected by characteristic curve matching via dynamic programming which has been used for detecting and tracking corner points thorough image sequence. Outliers of tracked points are then removed by using Random Sample And Consensus(RANSAC) robust estimation and all remained corner points are classified as inliers by homography algorithm. The rectified images are then resampled by bilinear interpolation. Experiment shows that our method can make the suitable registration of image sequence with large motion.

Evaluation of Seismic Fragility of Concrete Faced Rockfill Dam (콘크리트 표면차수벽형 석괴댐의 지진 취약도 평가)

  • Baeg, Jongmin;Park, Duhee;Yoon, Jinam;Choi, Byoung-Han
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.103-108
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    • 2018
  • The fragility curves for CFRD dams are derived in this study for probabilistic damage estimation as a function of a ground motion intensity. The dam crest settlement, which is a widely used damage index, is used for minor, moderate, and extensive damage states. The settlement is calculated from nonlinear dynamic numerical simulations. The accuracy of the numerical model is validated through comparison with a centrifuge test. The fragility curve is represented as a log normal distribution function and presented as a function of the peak ground acceleration. The fragility curves developed in this study can be utilized for real time assessment of the damage of dams.

Quality Variable Prediction for Dynamic Process Based on Adaptive Principal Component Regression with Selective Integration of Multiple Local Models

  • Tian, Ying;Zhu, Yuting
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.1193-1215
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    • 2021
  • The measurement of the key product quality index plays an important role in improving the production efficiency and ensuring the safety of the enterprise. Since the actual working conditions and parameters will inevitably change to some extent with time, such as drift of working point, wear of equipment and temperature change, etc., these will lead to the degradation of the quality variable prediction model. To deal with this problem, the selective integrated moving windows based principal component regression (SIMV-PCR) is proposed in this study. In the algorithm of traditional moving window, only the latest local process information is used, and the global process information will not be enough. In order to make full use of the process information contained in the past windows, a set of local models with differences are selected through hypothesis testing theory. The significance levels of both T - test and χ2 - test are used to judge whether there is identity between two local models. Then the models are integrated by Bayesian quality estimation to improve the accuracy of quality variable prediction. The effectiveness of the proposed adaptive soft measurement method is verified by a numerical example and a practical industrial process.