• Title/Summary/Keyword: Dynamic Causality Analysis

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A Dynamic Causality Analysis of Oliver Flounder Producer Price by Region using the Panel VAR Model (패널 VAR 모형을 이용한 지역별 양식넙치 산지가격의 동태적 인과관계 분석)

  • Jeon, Yong-Han;Nam, Jong-Oh
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.47-63
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the leading price between Jeju and Wando's oliver flounder producer price and to analyze the dynamic effect of the regional producer price using the panel VAR model. In the process of analysis, it was confirmed that there are unit roots in the monthly data of Jeju and Wando's oliver flounder producer price. So, in order to avoid spurious regression, the rate change of producer price which carries out log difference was used in the analysis. As a result of the analysis, first, the panel Granger causality test showed that the influence of the change rate of producer price in oliver flounder in Jeju was slightly larger than that in Wando, but it was found that each region all leads the change rate of the producer price in oliver flounder. Second, the panel VAR estimation showed that the rate change of producer price in Jeju and Wando a month ago had a statistically significant effect on the change rate of producer price of each region. Third, the impulse response analysis indicated that other regions are affected a little more than the same region in case of the occurrence of the impact on the error terms of the change rate of produce price in Jeju and Wando oliver flounder. Fourth, the variance decomposition analysis showed that the change rate of producer price in the two regions was higher explained by Jeju compared to Wando. In conclusion, it is expected that the above results can not only be useful as basic data for the stabilization of oliver flounder producer price and the establishment of policies for easing volatility but can also help the oliver flounder industry operate its business.

Dynamic Modeling of Automotive Shock Absorbers Using Simple Nonlinear Models (단순 비선형 모델을 이용한 자동차 충격흡수기의 동특성 모델링 기법 연구)

  • 한형석;서정원;노규석;허승진;김기훈
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.156-162
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    • 2003
  • The shock absorber is a part having a direct influence on the ride comfort, stability and dynamic load prediction of a vehicle. Thus, a rationally modeled shock absorber should be required in the dynamic analysis of vehicles. This thesis presents a modified model, based on Worden's hyperbolic tangent function, in order to fit experimental data on the velocity-damping force of a shock absorber. The hyperbolic tangent function correctly indicates the characteristics of a shock absorber, and has the advantage of containing physical causality. To evaluate the method, comparative evaluations of the linear model, the 5th polynomial model and Worden's model were carried out. The function presented in this paper is not only simple but also makes it possible to estimate the function coefficients easily and visually. In addition, it has the advantage of containing physical causality. Lastly, it effectively models the damping force of a shock absorber.

A Causality Analysis between R&D Investment and Technology Trade (R&D 투자와 기술무역 간의 인과관계 분석)

  • Pak, Cheolmin;Ku, Bonchul
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.91-113
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationship among R&D spending and variables of technology trade, and to explore promoting R&D activities and revitalizing technology trade. To analyze the causal relationship, we built a multivariate model that consists of government R&D spending, private R&D spending, technical importation and export of techniques, and employed the Granger-causality test based on an error correction model. The results show that there are five Granger-causality relationship among them in the short run, as well as there are eleven Granger-causality relationship among a total of twelve causal relationship, excluding only a unidirectional causality relationship from the government R&D spending to the export of techniques, in the long run. Besides, we attempted the impulse-response analysis on them to observe the reaction of any dynamic system in response to some external change. The significance of this paper is to make sure the causal relationship between R&D investments and the technology trade by analyzing empirically, and to suggest several implications for promoting the R&D activities and revitalizing the technology trade.

Analysis of Co-movement and Causality between Supply-Demand Factors and the Shipping Market: Evidence from Wavelet Approach (웨이블릿 분석을 통한 수요-공급요인과 해운시황의 연관성 분석)

  • Jeong, Hoejin;Yun, Heesung;Lee, Keehwan
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.87-104
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    • 2022
  • Considering the complex structure and high volatility in the shipping market, it is important to investigate the connectedness amongst influencing factors. This study explores the dynamic relationship between supply-demand factors and shipping freight indices. We choose Capesize and Panamax in the bulk carrier market and use quarterly data of GDP, world fleet, BCI, and BPI from 1999 to 2021. Applying the wavelet analysis and wavelet Granger causality test, the simultaneous examination of co-movement and causality between two factors and the shipping market in both the time and frequency domains is achieved. We find that co-movement and causality vary across time and frequencies, thereby existing dynamic relationships between variables. Second, compared to multiple coherencies using demand and supply factors together, partial coherencies indicate noticeable causalities. It implies that analyzing demand and supply factors separately is essential. Finally, shipping freight indices show a high correlation with the demand factor in a good market and with the supply factor in a bad market. Generally, GDP positively leads shipping freights in the recovery phase while the world fleet negatively leads shipping freights in the downturn. The research is meaningful in that the rarely-applied wavelet analysis is adopted in the shipping market and that it gives a reasonable ground to explain the role of supply and/or demand factors in different phases of the market cycle.

Causality and Asymmetric Price Transmission in the Distribution Channel of the Tomato Market in Korea (토마토의 유통단계 간 인과성 및 비대칭적 가격 조정 연구)

  • Kim, Gi-Hwan;Kang, Chang-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.571-583
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to explore the dynamic properties of causality and asymmetric price transmission in the distributional channel of the tomato market in Korea. Using the wholesale and retail price series of the tomato market, we obtain the following results. First, the price transmission mechanism reveals the causal relationship channeling from the wholesale price to the retail price. Second, we find an asymmetric price transmission from the analysis using the threshold partial adjustment model. The retail price responds strongly when the wholesale price increases. On the other hand, the retail price shows sluggish adjustment when the wholesale price decreases.

Damping Force Modeling of Shock Absorbers Using Hyperbolic tangent (Hyperbolic tangent를 이용한 충격 흡수기 감쇠력 모델 연구)

  • 서정원;한형석;노규석;허승진;김기훈
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 2003.06a
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    • pp.1479-1482
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    • 2003
  • The shock absorber is a part having a direct influence on the ride comfort, stability and dynamic load prediction of a vehicle. Thus, a rationally modeled shock absorber should be required in the dynamic analysis of vehicles. This thesis presents a modified model, based on Worden's hyperbolic tangent function, in order to fit experimental data on the velocity-damping force of a shock absorber. The hyperbolic tangent function correctly indicates the characteristics of a shock absorber. and has the advantage of containing physical causality. To evaluate the method, comparative evaluations of the linear model. the 5th polynomial model and Worden's model were carried out. The function presented in this paper is not only simple but also makes it possible to estimate the function coefficients easily and visually. In addition, it has the advantage of containing physical causality. Lastly, it effectively models the damping force of a shock absorber.

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Dynamic Causality and Impulse Response between Maritime Import Volume, Relative Real Effective Exchange Rate, and Regional Industrial Activity : Focusing on a Trade Port of the Jeonnam Province (해상 수입물동량, 상대적 실질실효환율, 지역경기의 동태적 인과성과 충격반응 : 전남지역의 무역항을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Chang-Beom
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.47-59
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    • 2017
  • The objective of this study is to determine the short run and long run dynamics between maritime import volume (IMV), industrial production (IP), and real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Korean Won over the REER of certain major currencies (US Dollar, Chinese Yuan, and Japanese Yen) in Korea's Jeonnam province. The Johansen and Juselius cointegration results reveal that at least one cointegration vector or long-run relationship exists. Hence, this study estimated the long run equilibrium equation, which indicates that both IP and REER are inelastic, although the former is bigger than the latter. Moreover, the dynamic causality analysis reveals short and long-run unidirectional causality from IP and REER to IMV in all three models. Further, in all the models, the results indicate short run unidirectional causality from REER to IP. In addition, the impulse response (IR) results show that the impulse of IP and REER decayed after four months. Additionally, the IR analysis results indicate that the REER of the Korean Won over the REER of Japanese Yen is the biggest with respect to the impact of relative REER on IP, which is the proxy variable of regional real income. Thus, empirical results indicated that real income and REER play an important role in determining the Jeonnam's maritime import demand behavior in the short run and long run. More importantly, substantial actions reducing unexpected fluctuation of the REER and real income based on micro and macro economic policies will increase the imported volume in the ports of the Jeonnam province.

Dynamic Relationship between Stock Index and Asset Prices: A Long-run Analysis

  • NATARAJAN, Vinodh K;ABRAR UL HAQ, Muhammad;AKRAM, Farheen;SANKAR, Jayendira P
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.601-611
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    • 2021
  • There are many asset prices which are interlinked and have a bearing on the stock market index. Studies have shown that the interrelationship among these asset prices vary and are inconsistent. The ultimate aim of this study is to examine the dynamic relationship between gold price, oil price, exchange rate and stock index. Monthly time series data has been utilized by the researcher to examine the interrelationship between four variables. The relationship among stock exchange rate index, oil price and gold price have been undertaken using regression and granger causality test. The results indicate that the exchange rate and oil price have an indirect influence on NIFTY; whereas gold price had a direct impact on NIFTY. It is evident from the results that volatility in the price of gold is mainly dependent on the exchange rate and vice versa. All the variables affect NIFTY in some way or the other. However, gold has a direct and vital relationship. From the study findings, it can be concluded that macroeconomic variables like commodity prices and foreign exchange rate, gold and oil, have a strong relationship on the return on securities at the national stock exchange of India.

An Analysis of the Interrelationships between the Domestic and Foreign Stock Market Variations over the Depressed Market Period (주가의 전반적 하락기 국내외 증시 변동간의 연관관계 분석)

  • 김태호;유경아;김진희
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.11-23
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    • 2003
  • This study Investigates the short and long-run dynamic relationships between the domestic and U.S. stock markets for the period of declining stock prices. It Is well known that the domestic stock market variations are largely caused by the U.S. stock market movements. Multivariate causal tty test Is utilized to examine the lead-lag relationships among four stock prices of KOSPI and KOSDAQ In the domestic part and DOWJONES and NASDAQ In the U.S. part. When the stock prices tend to decrease In the long run, It Is found that both KOSPI and KOSDAQ have closer relations with NASDAQ than DOWJONES. When both of domestic stock markets are severely fluctuate, bidirectional causal relationships appear to exist between NASDAQ and each of KOSPI and KOSDAQ. On the other hand. when the domestic stock markets are relatively stable, unidirectional causality Is found to exist between NASDAQ and each of KOSPI and KOSDAQ. which is explicitly validated by the analysis of variance decomposition.

Panel Analysis of Relationship Between Regional Logistics Industry and Economic Growth in Korea (지역물류산업과 경제성장의 관계에 대한 패널분석)

  • Choi, Bong-Ho;Lee, Gi-Whan
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.173-188
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between the logistics industry and the economic growth in Korea, and to provide implications for the contribution of the logistics industry to economic growth. Unlike Previous Related Studies, we derive short-term and long-term effects through dynamic panel analysis such as panel Granger causality test and impulse response function estimation using panel vector error correction model. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows: Labor input of the logistics industry has the greatest positive impact on economic growth. And capital input and total sales of the logistics industry have a negative effect on economic growth. This means that Korea's logistics industry features labor-intensive growth. In addition, We have also found that the growth (sales) and capital input of the logistics industry have not yet had a direct positive impact on economic growth. Therefore, the results of this analysis provide implications for the direction of logistics industry policy to enhance contribution of the logistics industry to economic growth.