• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제39권9호
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• pp.801-812
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• 2006

본 연구에서는 PDSI, SPI, MSWSI 등의 가뭄지수를 이용하여 가뭄을 단계별로 모니터링 할 수 있는 통합가뭄지수를 개발하였으며 개발된 통합가뭄지수에 의해 작성된 한반도의 가뭄도를 과거 가뭄과 비교 검증한 결과 매우 잘 일치하는 결과를 얻을 수 있었다. 따라서 통합가뭄지수가 가뭄을 정량적으로 모니터링 하는데 유용한 지표로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다 또한, 기상청에서 시행하고 있는 기온, 강수량의 장 단기 예보자료를 이용하여 가뭄지수의 예측치를 산정 한 후, 미래에 가뭄상황이 어떻게 진행될 것인가에 대한 가뭄전망기법을 개발하였으며 한반도 전역에 대한 실시간 가뭄전망이 가능하도록 전체 시스템을 구축하였다. 뿐만 아니라 가뭄기초 자료 관리, 가뭄지수 산정 및 가뭄현황도 작성 등 종합적인 가뭄정보 분석을 위한 가뭄 모니터링시스템을 개발하여 웹을 통하여 일반인들에게 제공할 수 있도록 시스템을 구축하였다.

• 한국습지학회지
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.49-58
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• 2006

가뭄은 인간이 극복하기 힘든 자연재해로 시간규모가 다양하고 누적된 효과가 천천히 나타나기 때문에 인지가 어려우며 이로 인해 피해가 커지는 경향이 있다(최영진, 1995). 가뭄에 적절히 대처하기 위해서는 가뭄의 감시(Monitoring) 체계가 필요하고, 객관적이고 널리 적용될 수 있는 가뭄의 정의와 가뭄의 정도를 정량적으로 나타낼 수 있는 지표가 필요하다. 기상학 및 수자원에서는 가뭄 감시를 위해 현 상태에 대한 정량적인 가뭄심도를 나타내는 가뭄지수를 사용하고 있으며 원격탐사 분야에서는 다중시기의 식생지수 및 지표면 열지수 등을 활용하여 가뭄여부를 판단하는 노력을 수행하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 과거 10년간 남한의 가뭄시점에 대한 가뭄지수 분석을 통하여 가뭄의 심도를 파악하였고, 정규식생지수(NDVI)와 식생상태지수(VCI)를 활용하여 가뭄현황을 판별하였다. 또한, 식생지수와 가뭄지수의 상관성분석을 통하여 식생지수를 이용한 정량적인 가뭄분석의 가능성을 모색하였다.

• 대기
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.267-277
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• 2012

The objectives of this study are to develop a real-time drought monitoring and prediction system on the East Asia domain and to evaluate the performance of the system by using past historical drought records. The system is mainly composed of two parts: drought monitoring for providing current drought indices with meteorological and hydrological conditions; drought outlooks for suggesting future drought indices and future hydrometeorological conditions. Both parts represent the drought conditions on the East Asia domain (latitude $21.15{\sim}50.15^{\circ}$, longitude $104.40{\sim}149.65^{\circ}$), Korea domain (latitude $30.40{\sim}43.15^{\circ}$, longitude $118.65{\sim}135.65^{\circ}$) and South Korea domain (latitude $30.40{\sim}43.15^{\circ}$, longitude $118.65{\sim}135.65^{\circ}$), respectively. The observed meteorological data from ASOS (Automated Surface Observing System) and AWS (Automatic Weather System) of KMA (Korean Meteorological Administration) and model-driven hydrological data from LSM (Land Surface model) are used for the real-time drought monitoring, while the monthly and seasonal weather forecast information from UM (Unified Model) of KMA are utilized for drought outlooks. For the evaluation of the system, past historical drought records occurred in Korea are surveyed and are compared with the application results of the system. The results demonstrated that the selected drought indices such as KMA drought index, SPI (3), SPI (6), PDSI, SRI and SSI are reasonable, especially, the performance of SRI and SSI provides higher accuracy that the others.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제36권3호
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• pp.375-384
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• 2003

우리나라는 거의 5년마다 심한 가뭄이 발생하고 있고 과거에 발생한 많은 가뭄의 경험으로 제도적 측면에서 중앙정부, 지방정부 및 물 관리기관의 제휴에 의하여 원활한 가뭄대책을 수행하고 있다. 그러나 이들 가뭄 대책은 가뭄이 심하게 진행된 상황에서 이루어지는 경우가 많이 발생하고 있다. 이와 같은 원인은 체계적인 가뭄 모니터링과 가뭄단계 기준의 미비에서 찾을 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 가뭄지수의 시공간적인 해석과 과거 정부의 가뭄대책을 통하여 경보를 위한 가뭄단계 기준을 설정하였다. 가뭄단계는 준비, 주의, 경보 및 비상의 4단계로 분류하였고 각 단계에 해당되는 가뭄지수의 범위 및 가뭄면적을 제시하였다. 또한 Web 기반으로 개발된 가뭄 모니터링 시스템을 제시하였다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제63권3호
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• pp.47-57
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• 2021

Drought monitoring over paddy field area is an important role as the frequency and intensity of drought due to climate change increases. This study analyzed the applicability of drought monitoring on paddy crops using MODIS-based field surveys. As a satellite-based drought index using evapotranspiration for quantitative drought determination, ESI (Evaporative Stress Index), was applied and calculated through the ratio of MODIS- based actual and potential evapotranspiration. For the irrigated areas of Idong, Gosam, Geumgwang, and Madun reservoirs the availability of irrigation water supply, ponding depth, precipitation, paddy growth were investigated for the paddy field within one grid of MODIS. In addition, the percentile-based ESI drought severity was calculated to compare the growth process of paddy and changes in the drought category of ESI. The Idong area was irrigated about a week later than other reservoirs for the period of water supply, transplanting, and water drainage and the ESI drought category tended to be different. The Gosam, Geumgwang, and Madun area expressed moderate drought prior to the farming season, and indicated normal as the water was supplied. During the water drainage, the drought category intensified, indicating that the water available on land was decreasing. These results demonstrated that the MODIS-based ESI could be an effective tool for agricultural drought monitoring over paddy field area.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제39권9호
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• pp.787-800
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• 2006

본 연구에서는 한반도에 대한 가뭄모니터링 시스템을 구축하기 위하여 각종 기상 및 수문자료를 활용하여 우리나라 전역에 대한 PDSI, SPI 및 MSWSI 등의 가뭄지수를 월 단위로 산정 하였으며 산정된 각종 지수들이 어느 정도로 과거에 발생했던 가뭄을 정량적으로 재현하는가를 분석하였다. 분석을 위하여 1994년, 1995년 및 200l년에 발생했던 가뭄의 가뭄피해 조사기록을 이용하였고 본 연구에서 이용되는 3가지의 가뭄지수들이 가뭄감시를 위한 가뭄지표로 활용할 수 있는가를 판단하기 위하여 과거 가뭄에 대한 재현정도, 가뭄단계의 일치성 및 상관관계를 분석하였다. 분석결과, PDSI, SPI(3), SPI(6), MSWSI 순으로 과거 가뭄 모니터링에 대한 정확성을 나타냈고 특히 가뭄의 심도 및 지속기간을 비교 분석한 결과에서도 상당히 우수한 결과를 보여 가뭄모니터링을 위한 지표로 충분히 활용될 수 있다는 결론을 얻었다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2019년도 학술발표회
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• pp.150-150
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• 2019

The development of prolong and severe drought can directly impact on the environment, agriculture, economics and society of country. A lot of efforts have been made across worldwide in the planning, monitoring and mitigation of drought. Currently, different drought indices such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are developed and most commonly used to monitor drought characteristics quantitatively. However, it will be very meaningful and essential to develop a more effective technique for assessment and monitoring of onset and end of drought. Therefore, in this study, the hidden Markov Bayesian classifier (MBC) was employed for the assessment of onset and end of meteorological drought classes. The results showed that the probabilities of different classes based on the MBC were quite suitable and can be employed to estimate onset and end of each class for meteorological droughts. The classification results of MBC were compared with SPI and with past studies which proved that the MBC was able to account accuracy in determining the accurate drought classes. For more performance evaluation of classification results confusion matrix was used to find accuracy and precision in predicting the classes and their results are also appropriate. The overall results indicate that the MBC was effective in predicating the onset and end of drought events and can utilized for monitoring and management of short-term drought risk.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제37권4호
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• pp.815-831
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• 2021

Drought forecasting is crucial to minimize the damage to food security and water resources caused by drought. Satellite-based drought research has been conducted since 1980s, which includes drought monitoring, assessment, and prediction. Unlike numerous studies on drought monitoring and assessment for the past few decades, satellite-based drought forecasting has gained popularity in recent years. For successful drought forecasting, it is necessary to carefully identify the relationships between drought factors and drought conditions by drought type and lead time. This paper aims to provide an overview of recent research trends and challenges for satellite-based drought forecasts focusing on lead times. Based on the recent literature survey during the past decade, the satellite-based drought forecasting studies were divided into three groups by lead time (i.e., short-term, sub-seasonal, and seasonal) and reviewed with the characteristics of the predictors (i.e., drought factors) and predictands (i.e., drought indices). Then, three major challenges-difficulty in model generalization, model resolution and feature selection, and saturation of forecasting skill improvement-were discussed, which led to provide several future research directions of satellite-based drought forecasting.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 2003년도 Proceedings of ACRS 2003 ISRS
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• pp.1033-1035
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• 2003

This study attempts to analyze the potential of global scale NDVI data archive to monitor regional scale droughts. Ten-days maximum value NDVI composite data of the northeast Asia region were acquired for the growing seasons from 1993 to 2003. Two NDVI-derived drought indices (SVI, VCI), reported from previous studies, were applied to the study area. Although the SVI and VCI are mainly developed for monitoring the drought condition at the agriculture crop and grasslands, it turned out that they were also effective to reveal the drought condition over the temperate mixed forest. The drought symptom lasts at least one or two months even after the normal raining begins.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제60권6호
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• pp.121-131
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• 2018

Climate change has caused changes in environmental factors that have a direct impact on agriculture such as temperature and precipitation. The meteorological disaster that has the greatest impact on agriculture is drought, and its forecasts are closely related to agricultural production and water supply. In the case of terrestrial data, the accuracy of the spatial map obtained by interpolating the each point data is lowered because it is based on the point observation. Therefore, acquisition of various meteorological data through satellite imagery can complement this terrestrial based drought monitoring. In this study, Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) was used as satellite data for drought determination. The ESI was developed by NASA and USDA, and is calculated through thermal observations of GOES satellites, MODIS, Landsat 5, 7 and 8. We will identify the difference between ESI and other satellite-based drought assessment indices (Vegetation Health Index, VHI, Leaf Area Index, LAI, Enhanced Vegetation Index, EVI), and use it to analyze the drought in South Korea, and examines the applicability of ESI as a new indicator of agricultural drought monitoring.