• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1990.04a
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• pp.272-288
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• 1990

The uncertainty quantification process in probabilistic Risk Assessment usually involves a specification of the uncertainty in the input data and the propagation of this uncertainty to the final risk results. The distributional sensitivity analysis is to study the impact of the various assumptions made during the quantification of input parameter uncertainties on the final output uncertainty. The uncertainty importance of input parameters, in this case, should reflect the degree of changes in the whole output distribution and not just in a point estimate value. A measure of the uncertainty importance is proposed in the present paper. The measure is called the distributional sensitivity measure(DSM) and explicitly derived from the definition of the Kullback's discrimination information. The DSM is applied to three typical discrimination information. The DSM is applied to three typical cases of input distributional changes: 1) Uncertainty is completely eliminated, 2) Uncertainty range is increased by a factor of 10, and 3) Type of distribution is changed. For all three cases of application, the DSM-based importance ranking agrees very well with the observed changes of output distribution while other statistical parameters are shown to be insensitive.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.915-920
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• 2014

We consider a continuous time surplus process with investments the sizes of which are independent and identically distributed. It is assumed that an investment of the surplus to other business is made, if and only if the surplus reaches a given sufficient level. We establish an integro-differential equation for the distribution function of the surplus and solve the equation to obtain the moment generating function for the stationary distribution of the surplus. As a consequence, we obtain the first and second moments of the level of the surplus in an infinite horizon.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.571-582
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• 2019

Purpose: To develop a risk metric for failure cause that can help determine the action priority of each failure cause in FMEA considering time sequence of cause- failure- detection. Methods: Assuming a quadratic loss function the unfulfilled mission period, a risk metric is obtained by deriving the failure time distribution. Results: The proposed risk metric has some reasonable properties for evaluating risk accompanied with a failure cause. Conclusion: The study may be applied to determining action priorities among all the failure causes in the FMEA sheet, requiring further studies for general situation of failure process.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.49-55
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• 2018

Purpose - This paper examines the effect of related party transactions on crash firm-specific stock price crash risk. Ownership of a typical Korean conglomerate is concentrated in a single family. In those entities, management and board positions are often filled by family members. Therefore, a dominant shareholder can benefit from related party transactions. In Korea, firms have to report related party transactions in financial statement footnotes. However, those are not disclosed in detail. The more related party transactions are the greater information risk. Thus, companies with related party transactions are likely to experience stock price crashes. Research design, data, and methodology - 2,598 firm-year observations are used for the main analysis. Those samples are from TS2000 database from 2009 to 2013, and the database covers KOSPI-listed firms in Korea. The proxy for related party transactions (RTP) is calculated by dividing total transactions to the related-party by total sales. A dummy variable is used as a dependent variable (CRASH) in the regression model. Logistic regression is used to explain the relationship between related party transactions and crash risk. Then, the sample was separated into two groups; tunneling firms and propping firms. The relation between related party transactions and crash risk variances with features of the transaction were investigated. Results - Using a sample of KOSPI-listed firms in TS2000 database for the period of 2009-2013, I find that stock price crash risk increases as the trade volume of related-party transactions increases. Specifically, I find that the coefficient of RPT is significantly positive, supporting the prediction. In addition, this relationship is strong and robust in tunneling firms. Conclusions - The results report that firms with related party transactions are more likely to experience stock price crashes. The results mean that related party transactions increase the possibility of future stock price crashes by enlarging information asymmetry between controlling shareholders and minority shareholders. In case of tunneling, it could be seen that related party transactions are positively associated with stock crash risk. The result implies that the characteristic of the transaction influences crash risk. This study is related to a literature that investigates the effect of related party transactions on the stock market.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.273-284
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• 2002

At present, the health risks associated with the natural radionuclides of ground water have become a concern as potential social problems. However, there are no regulatory actions or control strategies for such risks. Therefore, we have investigated and discussed the risks and associated management strategies for radionuclides in other countries. US EPA has proposed MCL (300 pCi/L) and AMCL (4,000 pCi/L) for radon, and 30 ppb for uranium, 15 pCi/L for gross-alpha and 5 pCi/L for radium as final MCLs. Also, Canada, WHO and European countries have their inherent management levels. Finally, we suggested several criteria for setting guidelines in our countries including exposure related criteria such as geological distribution, occurrence, exposure probability distribution, exposure population and multimedia exposure assessment, acceptable risk, and cost -benefit analysis. The national-scale exposure and risk assessment, and economic analysis should be conducted for producing and aggregating the representative information on these criteria.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.359-383
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• 2011

One of the representative prudential regulations is the capital regulation. The current regulation and international criteria are just simply adding up the market risk and credit risk. According to the portfolio theory due to diversification effect the total risk is less than the summation of market and credit risk. This paper investigates to verify the existence of diversification effect in measuring the integrated risk of financial firm by the copula function, which is combine the different distribution maintain their propriety. The result of the test shows that in measuring the integrated risk not only the correlation and but also the proprieties of market and credit risk distribution are very important. And the tail of risk distribution is important when measuring the economic capital, especially the external impact to the financial market. This paper's contribution is that the empirical evidence in considering the relationship between market and credit risk the integrated risk is less than sum of them.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.137-148
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to investigate factors influencing risk assessment of material misstatement in Vietnamese enterprises listed on stock market. Expert interview method was conducted to discover the scales for three variables including information system, trademark, and risk assessment of material misstatement. Survey method was used to examine the impacts of eight factors on risk assessment of material misstatement. Data is collected from 317 auditors who have excellent experience in auditing financial statements of companies listed on stock market. Then, data is processed by descriptive statistics, reliability analysis, factor extracted analysis, correlative regression analysis, and analysis variance of residual change. The research findings showed that business characteristic, stakeholder pressure, and economic environment have positive relationships with risk assessment of material misstatement. Three variables including operation control and monitor, control environment, and information system negatively affect to risk assessment. Specially, business characteristic and information system, which are elements in internal control, have strongest impact on risk assessment. One the other hand, assessment of internal control plays an important role not only in the audit plan stage but also throughout the stages of the audit implementation and ending. Therefore, appropriate solutions are proposed to carry out all audit stages.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.1433-1436
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• 2016

Background: Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), a major problem of health in Thailand, particularly in Northeastern and Northern regions, is generally incurable and rapidly lethal because of presentation in stage 3 or 4. Early diagnosis of stage 1 and 2 could allow better survival. Therefore, this study aimed to provide a distribution map of populations at risk for CCA in BuaYai district of Nakhon Ratchasima province, Northeast Thailand. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional survey was carried out in 10 sub-districts and 122 villages, during June and November 2015. The populations at risk for CCA were screened using the Korat CCA verbal screening test (KCVST) and then risk areas were displayed by using Google map (GM). Results: A total of 11,435 individuals from a 26,198 population completed the KCVST. The majority had a low score of risk for CCA (1-4 points; 93.3%). High scores with 6, 7 and 8 points accounted for 1.20%, 0.13% and 0.02%. The population at risk was found frequently in sub-district municipalities, followed by sub-district administrative organization and town municipalities, (F=396.220, P-value=0.000). Distribution mapping comprised 11 layers: 1, district; 2, local administrative organization; 3, hospital; 4, KCVST opisthorchiasis; 5, KCVST praziquantel used; 6, KCVST cholelithiasis; 7, KCVST raw fish consumption; 8, KCVST alcohol consumption; 9, KCVST pesticide used; 10, KCVST relative family with CCA; and 11, KCVST naive northeastern people. Geovisual display is now available online. Conclusions: This study indicated that the population at high risk of CCA in Bua Yai district is low, therefore setting a zero model project is possible. Key success factors for disease prevention and control need further study. GM production is suitable for further CCA surveillance and monitoring of the population with a high risk score in this area.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.35 no.6
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• pp.552-560
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• 2020

Listeria monocytogenes is a highly pathogenic gram-positive bacterium that is easily isolated from cheese, meat, processed meat products, and smoked salmon. A zero-tolerance (n=5, c=0, m=0/25 g) criteria has been applied for L. monocytogenes in cheese meaning that L. monocytogenes must not be detected in any 25 g of samples. However, there was a lack of scientific information behind this criteria. Therefore, in this study, we conducted a risk assessment based on literature reviews to provide scientific information supporting the baseline and to raise public awareness of L. monocytogenes foodborne illness. Quantitative risk assessment of L. monocytogenes for cheese was conducted using the following steps: exposure assessment, hazard characterization, and risk characterization. As a result, the initial contamination level of L. monocytogenes was -4.0 Log CFU/g in cheese. The consumption frequency of cheese was 11.8%, and the appropriate probability distribution for amount of cheese consumed was a Lognormal distribution with an average of 32.5 g. In conclusion, the mean of probabilities of foodborne illness caused by the consumption of cheese was 5.09×10-7 in the healthy population and 4.32×10-6 in the susceptible population. Consumption frequency has the biggest effect on the probability of foodborne illness, but storage and transportation times have also been found to affect the probability of foodborne illness; thus, management of the distribution environment should be considered important. Through this risk assessment, scientific data to support the criteria for L. monocytogenes in cheese could be obtained. In addition, we recommend that further risk assessment studies of L. monocytogenes in various foods be conducted in the future.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.2071-2077
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• 2013

Esophageal cancer is a mjaor health problems in many parts of the world. A geographical information system (GIS) allows investigation of the geographical distribution of diseases. The purpose of the present study was to explore the relationship between esophageal cancer and effective climatic factors using GIS. The dispersion distribution and the relationship between environmental factors effective on cancer were measured using Arc GIS. The highest degree of spread was in Germi town and the least was in Ardabil city. There was a significant relationship between effective environmental factors and esophageal cancer in Ardabil province. The results indicated that environmental factors probably are influential in determining the incidence of esophageal cancer. Also, these results can be considered as a window to future comprehensive research on esophageal cancer and related risk factors.