• Title/Summary/Keyword: Distribution Modeling

Search Result 2,620, Processing Time 0.031 seconds

A Numerical Study of Hydraulic Fractures Propagation with Rock Bridges (Rock bridges를 고려한 수치 해석적 수압파쇄 균열거동 연구)

  • 최성웅
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
    • /
    • v.10 no.3
    • /
    • pp.447-456
    • /
    • 2000
  • Rock bridge in rock masses can be considered as one of several types of opening-mode fractures, and also it has been known to have a great influence on the stability of structures in rock mass. In the beginning of researching a rock bridge it used to be studied only in characteristics of its behavior, as considering resistance of material itself. However the distribution pattern of rock bridges, which can affect the stability of rock structures, is currently researched with a fracture mechanical approach in numerical studies. For investigating the effect of rock bridges on the development pattern of hydraulic fractures, the author analyzed numerically the stress state transition in rock bridges and their phenomena with a different pattern of the rock bridge distributions. From the numerical studies, a two-crack configuration could be defined to be representative of the most critical conditions for rock bridges, only when cracks are systematic and same in their length and angle. Moreover, coalescence stresses and onset of propagation stresses could be known to increase with decreasing s/L ratio or increasing d/L ratio. The effect of pre-existing crack on hydraulic fracturing was studied also in numerical models. Different to the simple hydraulic fracturing modeling in which the fractures propagated exactly parallel to the maximum remote stress, the hydraulic fractures with pre-existing cracks did not propagate parallel to the maximum remote stress direction. These are representative of the tendency to change the hydraulic fractures direction because of the existence of pre-existing crack. Therefore s/L, d/L ratios will be identical as a function effective on hydraulic fractures propagation, that is, the K$_1$ value increase with decreasing s/L ratio or increasing d/L ratio and its magnification from onset to propagation increases with decreasing s/L ratio. The scanline is a commonly used method to estimate the fracture distribution on outcrops. The data obtained from the scanline method can be applied to the evaluation of stress field in rock mass.

  • PDF

Optimal Incentives for Customer Satisfaction in Multi-channel Setting (멀티채널에서의 고객만족제고 인센티브 연구)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sik
    • Journal of Distribution Research
    • /
    • v.15 no.1
    • /
    • pp.25-47
    • /
    • 2010
  • CS is one of the major concerns of managers in the world because it is well known to be a key medium construct for firms' superior outcome. One of the major agents for CS management is retailers. Firms try to manage not only employees but also retailers to promote CS behaviors. And so diverse incentives are used to promote their CS behaviors under diverse channel setting such as multi-channel. However in spite of the rising needs there has been scarce studies on the optimal incentive structure for a manufacturer to offer competing retailers at the multi-channel. In this paper, we try to find better way for a manufacturer to promote the competing retailers' CS behaviors. We investigated how to promote the retailers' CS behavior via game-theoretic modeling. Especially, we focus on the possible incentive, CS bonus type reward introduced in the studies of Hauser, Simester, and Wernerfelt(1994) and Chu and Desai(1995). We build up a multi stage complete information game and derive a subgame perfect equilibrium using backward induction. Stages of the game are as following. (Stage 1) Manufacturer sets wholesale price(w) and CS bonus($\eta$). (Stage 2) Both retailers in competition set CS effort level($e_i$) and retail price($p_i$) simultaneously. (Stage 3) Consumers make purchasing decisions based on the manufacturer's initial reputation and retailers' CS efforts.

    Structure of the Model We investigated four issues about the topic as following: (1) How much total incentive is adequate for a firm of a specific level of reputation to promote retailers' CS behavior under multi-channel setting ?, (2) How much total incentive is adequate under diverse level of complimentary externalities between the retailers' CS efforts to promote retailers' CS behavior?, (3) How much total incentive is adequate under diverse level of cost to make CS efforts to promote retailers' CS behavior?, (4) How much total incentive is adequate under diverse level of competition between retailers to promote retailers' CS behavior? Our findings are as following. (1) The higher reputation has the manufacturer, the higher incentives for retailers at multi-channel are required in the equilibrium.
    shows the increasing pattern of optimal incentive level along the manufacturer's reputation level(a) under some parameter conditions(b=1/2;c=0;$\beta$=1/2). (2) The bigger complimentary externalities exists between the retailers' CS efforts, the higher incentives are required in the equilibrium.
    shows the increasing pattern of optimal incentive level along the complimentary externalities level($\beta$) under some parameter conditions(a=1;b=1/2;c=0). (3) The higher is the retailers' cost, the lower incentives are required in the equilibrium.
    shows the decreasing pattern of optimal incentive level along the cost level(c) under some parameter conditions(a=1;b=1/2;$\beta$=1/2). (4) The more competitive gets those two retailers, the higher incentives for retailers at multi-channel are required in the equilibrium.
    shows the increasing pattern of optimal incentive level along the competition level(b) under some parameter conditions(c=0;a=1;$\beta$=1/2). One of the major contribution points of this study is the fact that this study is the first to investigate the optimal CS incentive system under multi-channel setting.

  • PDF

Study on the Fire Risk Prediction Assessment due to Deterioration contact of combustible cables in Underground Common Utility Tunnels (지하공동구내 가연성케이블의 열화접촉으로 인한 화재위험성 예측평가)

  • Ko, Jaesun
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
    • /
    • v.11 no.1
    • /
    • pp.135-147
    • /
    • 2015
  • Recent underground common utility tunnels are underground facilities for jointly accommodating more than 2 kinds of air-conditioning and heating facilities, vacuum dust collector, information processing cables as well as electricity, telecommunications, waterworks, city gas, sewerage system required when citizens live their daily lives and facilities responsible for the central function of the country but it is difficult to cope with fire accidents quickly and hard to enter into common utility tunnels to extinguish a fire due to toxic gases and smoke generated when various cables are burnt. Thus, in the event of a fire, not only the nerve center of the country is paralyzed such as significant property damage and loss of communication etc. but citizen inconveniences are caused. Therefore, noticing that most fires break out by a short circuit due to electrical works and degradation contact due to combustible cables as the main causes of fires in domestic and foreign common utility tunnels fire cases that have occurred so far, the purpose of this paper is to scientifically analyze the behavior of a fire by producing the model of actual common utility tunnels and reproducing the fire. A fire experiment was conducted in a state that line type fixed temperature detector, fire door, connection deluge set and ventilation equipment are installed in underground common utility tunnels and transmission power distribution cables are coated with fire proof paints in a certain section and heating pipes are fire proof covered. As a result, in the case of Type II, the maximum temperature was measured as $932^{\circ}C$ and line type fixed temperature detector displayed the fire location exactly in the receiver at a constant temperature. And transmission power distribution cables painted with fire proof paints in a certain section, the case of Type III, were found not to be fire resistant and fire proof covered heating pipes to be fire resistant for about 30 minutes. Also, fire simulation was carried out by entering fire load during a real fire test and as a result, the maximum temperature is $943^{\circ}C$, almost identical with $932^{\circ}C$ during a real fire test. Therefore, it is considered that fire behaviour can be predicted by conducting fire simulation only with common utility tunnels fire load and result values of heat release rate, height of the smoke layer, concentration of O2, CO, CO2 etc. obtained by simulation are determined to be applied as the values during a real fire experiment. In the future, it is expected that more reliable information on domestic underground common utility tunnels fire accidents can be provided and it will contribute to construction and maintenance repair effectively and systematically by analyzing and accumulating experimental data on domestic underground common utility tunnels fire accidents built in this study and fire cases continuously every year and complementing laws and regulations and administration manuals etc.

Dose Distribution and Characterization for Radiation Fields of Multileaf Collimateor System (방사선 입체조형치료용 다엽콜리메이터의 특성과 조직내 선량분포 측정)

  • Chu, Sung-Sil;Kim, Gwi-Eon
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
    • /
    • v.14 no.1
    • /
    • pp.77-85
    • /
    • 1996
  • Purpose : Multileaf collimator(MLC) is very suitable tool for conformal radio-therapy and commissioning measurements for a multileaf collimator installed on a dual energy accelerator with 6 and 10MV photons are required, For modeling the collimator with treament planning software, detailed dosimetric characterization of the multileaf collimator including the penumbra width, leaf transmission between leaf leakage and localization of the leaf ends and sides is an essential requirement. materials and Methods : Measurement of characteristic data of the MLC with 26 pair block leaves installed on CLINAC 2100C linear accelerator was performed. Low sensitive radiographic film(X-omatV) was used for the penumbra measurement and separate experiments using radiographic film and thermoluminescent dosimeters were performed to verify the dose distribution, Measured films were analized with a photodensitometer of WP700i scanner. Results : For 6 & 10 MV x-ray energies, approximately $2.0\%$ of photons incident on the multileaf collimator were transmitted and an additional $0.5\%$ leakage occurs between the leaves. Localizing the physical end of the leaves showed less than 1mm deviation from the $50\%$ decrement line and this difference is attributed to the curved shaped end on the leaves One side of a sin히e leaf corresponded to the $50\%$ decrement line, but the opposite face was aligned with a lower value. This difference is due to the tongue and groove used to decrease between leaf leakage. Alignment of the leaves to form a straight edge resulted larger penumbra at far position from isocenter as compare with divergent alloy blocks. When the MLC edge is stepped by sloping field, the isodose lines follow the leaf pattern and Produce scalloping isodose curves in tissue. The effective penumbra by 45 degree stepped MLC is about 10mm at 10cm depth for 6MV x-ray. The difference of effective penumbra in deep tissue between MLC and divergent alloy blocks is small (5mm). Conclusion : Using the characteristic data of MLC, the MLC has the clinlical acceptability and suitability for 3-D conformal radiotherapy except small field size.

  • PDF

Estimating Fine Particulate Matter Concentration using GLDAS Hydrometeorological Data (GLDAS 수문기상인자를 이용한 초미세먼지 농도 추정)

  • Lee, Seulchan;Jeong, Jaehwan;Park, Jongmin;Jeon, Hyunho;Choi, Minha
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.35 no.6_1
    • /
    • pp.919-932
    • /
    • 2019
  • Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is not only affected by anthropogenic emissions, but also intensifies, migrates, decreases by hydrometeorological factors. Therefore, it is essential to understand relationships between the hydrometeorological factors and PM2.5 concentration. In Korea, PM2.5 concentration is measured at the ground observatories and estimated data are given to locations where observatories are not present. In this way, the data is not suitable to represent an area, hence it is impossible to know accurate concentration at such locations. In addition, it is hard to trace migration, intensification, reduction of PM2.5. In this study, we analyzed the relationships between hydrometeorological factors, acquired from Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), and PM2.5 by means of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). By BMA, we also selected factors that have meaningful relationship with the variation of PM2.5 concentration. 4 PM2.5 concentration models for different seasons were developed using those selected factors, with Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Finally, we mapped the result of the model, to show spatial distribution of PM2.5. The model correlated well with the observed PM2.5 concentration (R ~0.7; IOA ~0.78; RMSE ~7.66 ㎍/㎥). When the models were compared with the observed PM2.5 concentrations at different locations, the correlation coefficients differed (R: 0.32-0.82), although there were similarities in data distribution. The developed concentration map using the models showed its capability in representing temporal, spatial variation of PM2.5 concentration. The result of this study is expected to be able to facilitate researches that aim to analyze sources and movements of PM2.5, if the study area is extended to East Asia.

Geochemical Characteristics of the Gyeongju LILW Repository II. Rock and Mineral (중.저준위 방사성폐기물 처분부지의 지구화학 특성 II. 암석 및 광물)

  • Kim, Geon-Young;Koh, Yong-Kwon;Choi, Byoung-Young;Shin, Seon-Ho;Kim, Doo-Haeng
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
    • /
    • v.6 no.4
    • /
    • pp.307-327
    • /
    • 2008
  • Geochemical study on the rocks and minerals of the Gyeongju low and intermediate level waste repository was carried out in order to provide geochemical data for the safety assessment and geochemical modeling. Polarized microscopy, X-ray diffraction method, chemical analysis for the major and trace elements, scanning electron microscopy(SEM), and stable isotope analysis were applied. Fracture zones are locally developed with various degrees of alteration in the study area. The study area is mainly composed of granodiorite and diorite and their relation is gradational in the field. However, they could be easily distinguished by their chemical property. The granodiorite showed higher $SiO_2$ content and lower MgO and $Fe_2O_3$ contents than the diorite. Variation trends of the major elements of the granodiorite and diorite were plotted on the same line according to the increase of $SiO_2$ content suggesting that they were differentiated from the same magma. Spatial distribution of the various elements showed that the diorite region had lower $SiO_2,\;Al_2O_3,\;Na_2O\;and\;K_2O$ contents, and higher CaO, $Fe_2O_3$ contents than the granodiorite region. Especially, because the differences in the CaO and $Na_2O$ distribution were most distinct and their trends were reciprocal, the chemical variation of the plagioclase of the granitic rocks was the main parameter of the chemical variation of the host rocks in the study area. Identified fracture-filling minerals from the drill core were montmorillonite, zeolite minerals, chlorite, illite, calcite and pyrite. Especially pyrite and laumontite, which are known as indicating minerals of hydrothermal alteration, were widely distributed in the study area indicating that the study area was affected by mineralization and/or hydrothermal alteration. Sulfur isotope analysis for the pyrite and oxygen-hydrogen stable isotope analysis for the clay minerals indicated that they were originated from the magma. Therefore, it is considered that the fracture-filling minerals from the study area were affected by the hydrothermal solution as well as the simply water-rock interaction.

  • PDF

Experimental Analysis of Nodal Head-outflow Relationship Using a Model Water Supply Network for Pressure Driven Analysis of Water Distribution System (상수관망 압력기반 수리해석을 위한 모의 실험시설 기반 절점의 압력-유량 관계 분석)

  • Chang, Dongeil;Kang, Kihoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
    • /
    • v.36 no.6
    • /
    • pp.421-428
    • /
    • 2014
  • For the analysis of water supply network, demand-driven and pressure-driven analysis methods have been proposed. Of the two methods, demand-driven analysis (DDA) can only be used in a normal operation condition to evaluate hydraulic status of a pipe network. Under abnormal conditions, i.e., unexpected pipe destruction, or abnormal low pressure conditions, pressure-driven analysis (PDA) method should be used to estimate the suppliable flowrate at each node in a network. In order to carry out the pressure-driven analysis, head-outflow relationship (HOR), which estimates flowrate at a certain pressure at each node, should be first determined. Most previous studies empirically suggested that each node possesses its own characteristic head-outflow relationship, which, therefore, requires verification by using actual field data for proper application in PDA modeling. In this study, a model pipe network was constructed, and various operation scenarios of normal and abnormal conditions, which cannot be realized in real pipe networks, were established. Using the model network, data on pressure and flowrate at each node were obtained at each operation condition. Using the data obtained, previously proposed HOR equations were evaluated. In addition, head-outflow relationship at each node was analyzed especially under multiple pipe destruction events. By analyzing the experimental data obtained from the model network, it was found that flowrate reduction corresponding to a certain pressure drop (by pipe destruction at one or multiple points on the network) followed intrinsic head-outflow relationship of each node. By comparing the experimentally obtained head-outflow relationship with various HOR equations proposed by previous studies, the one proposed by Wagner et al. showed the best agreement with the exponential parameter, m of 3.0.

Prediction of a hit drama with a pattern analysis on early viewing ratings (초기 시청시간 패턴 분석을 통한 대흥행 드라마 예측)

  • Nam, Kihwan;Seong, Nohyoon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.24 no.4
    • /
    • pp.33-49
    • /
    • 2018
  • The impact of TV Drama success on TV Rating and the channel promotion effectiveness is very high. The cultural and business impact has been also demonstrated through the Korean Wave. Therefore, the early prediction of the blockbuster success of TV Drama is very important from the strategic perspective of the media industry. Previous studies have tried to predict the audience ratings and success of drama based on various methods. However, most of the studies have made simple predictions using intuitive methods such as the main actor and time zone. These studies have limitations in predicting. In this study, we propose a model for predicting the popularity of drama by analyzing the customer's viewing pattern based on various theories. This is not only a theoretical contribution but also has a contribution from the practical point of view that can be used in actual broadcasting companies. In this study, we collected data of 280 TV mini-series dramas, broadcasted over the terrestrial channels for 10 years from 2003 to 2012. From the data, we selected the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked 45 TV drama and analyzed the viewing patterns of them by 11-step. The various assumptions and conditions for modeling are based on existing studies, or by the opinions of actual broadcasters and by data mining techniques. Then, we developed a prediction model by measuring the viewing-time distance (difference) using Euclidean and Correlation method, which is termed in our study similarity (the sum of distance). Through the similarity measure, we predicted the success of dramas from the viewer's initial viewing-time pattern distribution using 1~5 episodes. In order to confirm that the model is shaken according to the measurement method, various distance measurement methods were applied and the model was checked for its dryness. And when the model was established, we could make a more predictive model using a grid search. Furthermore, we classified the viewers who had watched TV drama more than 70% of the total airtime as the "passionate viewer" when a new drama is broadcasted. Then we compared the drama's passionate viewer percentage the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked dramas. So that we can determine the possibility of blockbuster TV mini-series. We find that the initial viewing-time pattern is the key factor for the prediction of blockbuster dramas. From our model, block-buster dramas were correctly classified with the 75.47% accuracy with the initial viewing-time pattern analysis. This paper shows high prediction rate while suggesting audience rating method different from existing ones. Currently, broadcasters rely heavily on some famous actors called so-called star systems, so they are in more severe competition than ever due to rising production costs of broadcasting programs, long-term recession, aggressive investment in comprehensive programming channels and large corporations. Everyone is in a financially difficult situation. The basic revenue model of these broadcasters is advertising, and the execution of advertising is based on audience rating as a basic index. In the drama, there is uncertainty in the drama market that it is difficult to forecast the demand due to the nature of the commodity, while the drama market has a high financial contribution in the success of various contents of the broadcasting company. Therefore, to minimize the risk of failure. Thus, by analyzing the distribution of the first-time viewing time, it can be a practical help to establish a response strategy (organization/ marketing/story change, etc.) of the related company. Also, in this paper, we found that the behavior of the audience is crucial to the success of the program. In this paper, we define TV viewing as a measure of how enthusiastically watching TV is watched. We can predict the success of the program successfully by calculating the loyalty of the customer with the hot blood. This way of calculating loyalty can also be used to calculate loyalty to various platforms. It can also be used for marketing programs such as highlights, script previews, making movies, characters, games, and other marketing projects.

Modeling and mapping fuel moisture content using equilibrium moisture content computed from weather data of the automatic mountain meteorology observation system (AMOS) (산악기상자료와 목재평형함수율에 기반한 산림연료습도 추정식 개발)

  • Lee, HoonTaek;WON, Myoung-Soo;YOON, Suk-Hee;JANG, Keun-Chang
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.21-36
    • /
    • 2019
  • Dead fuel moisture content is a key variable in fire danger rating as it affects fire ignition and behavior. This study evaluates simple regression models estimating the moisture content of standardized 10-h fuel stick (10-h FMC) at three sites with different characteristics(urban and outside/inside the forest). Equilibrium moisture content (EMC) was used as an independent variable, and in-situ measured 10-h FMC was used as a dependent variable and validation data. 10-h FMC spatial distribution maps were created for dates with the most frequent fire occurrence during 2013-2018. Also, 10-h FMC values of the dates were analyzed to investigate under which 10-h FMC condition forest fire is likely to occur. As the results, fitted equations could explain considerable part of the variance in 10-h FMC (62~78%). Compared to the validation data, the models performed well with R2 ranged from 0.53 to 0.68, root mean squared error (RMSE) ranged from 2.52% to 3.43%, and bias ranged from -0.41% to 1.10%. When the 10-h FMC model fitted for one site was applied to the other sites, $R^2$ was maintained as the same while RMSE and bias increased up to 5.13% and 3.68%, respectively. The major deficiency of the 10-h FMC model was that it poorly caught the difference in the drying process after rainfall between 10-h FMC and EMC. From the analysis of 10-h FMC during the dates fire occurred, more than 70% of the fires occurred under a 10-h FMC condition of less than 10.5%. Overall, the present study suggested a simple model estimating 10-h FMC with acceptable performance. Applying the 10-h FMC model to the automatic mountain weather observation system was successfully tested to produce a national-scale 10-h FMC spatial distribution map. This data will be fundamental information for forest fire research, and will support the policy maker.

Potential Habitat Area Based on Natural Environment Survey Time Series Data for Conservation of Otter (Lutra lutra) - Case Study for Gangwon-do - (수달의 보전을 위한 전국자연환경조사 시계열 자료 기반 잠재 서식적합지역 분석 - 강원도를 대상으로 -)

  • Kim, Ho Gul;Mo, Yongwon
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
    • /
    • v.35 no.1
    • /
    • pp.24-36
    • /
    • 2021
  • Countries around the world, including the Republic of Korea, are participating in efforts to preserve biodiversity. Concerning species, in particular, studies that aim to find potential habitats and establish conservation plans by conducting habitat suitability analysis for specific species are actively ongoing. However, few studies on mid- to long-term changes in suitable habitat areas are based on accumulated information. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze the time-series changes in the habitat suitable area and examine the otters' changing pattern (Lutra lutra) designated as Level 1 endangered wildlife in Gangwon-do. The time-series change analysis used the data on otter species' presence points from the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th national natural environment surveys conducted for about 20 years. Moreover, it utilized the land cover map consistent with the survey period to create environmental variables to reflect each survey period's habitat environment. The suitable habitat area analysis used the MaxEnt model that can run based only on the species presence information, and it has been proven to be reliable by previous studies. The study derived the habitat suitability map for otters in each survey period, and it showed a tendency that habitats were distributed around rivers. Comparing the response curves of the environmental variables derived from the modeling identified the characteristics of the habitat favored by otters. The examination of habitats' change by survey period showed that the habitats based on the 2nd National Natural Environment Survey had the widest distribution. The habitats of the 3rd and 4th surveys showed a tendency of decrease in area. Moreover, the study aggregated the analysis results of the three survey periods and analyzed and categorized the habitat's changing pattern. The type of change proposed different conservation plans, such as field surveys, monitoring, protected area establishment, and restoration plan. This study is significant because it produced a comprehensive analysis map that showed the time-series changes of the location and area of the otter habitat and proposed a conservation plan that is necessary according to the type of habitat change by region. We believe that the method proposed in this study and its results can be used as reference data for establishing a habitat conservation and management plan in the future.