• Title/Summary/Keyword: Discriminant models

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An Empirical Study on the Failure Prediction for KOSDAQ Firms (코스닥기업의 부실예측에 대한 실증 분석)

  • Park, Hee-Jung;Kang, Ho-Jung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.670-676
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    • 2009
  • Bankruptcy of firms in Korea can cause distress of financial institutions because these institutions have disterssed bond. Accordingly, social and economical spill-over effects by these results are very big. Even after the difficult times of IMF crisis had ended, bankruptcy of information-based small-medium companies and venture firms listed on the KOSDAQ has been continued. In this context, this study developed and adopted failure prediction models for which discriminant analysis was used. Samples of this study was 81 firms respectively for both failed and non-failed firms listed on the KOSDAQ between the year of 2000 and 2007. The results of this study are as follows. First, the accuracy of classification of the model by years was $74.5%{\sim}76.5%$, and the accuracy of classification of the mean model was $69.6%{\sim}80.4%$. Among the models, the mean model of -one year, -two years, and -three years was highest in accuracy of classification (80.4%). Second, accuracy of prediction of final model adopted on validation samples showed 85% before one year of bankruptcy. The results of this study may be significant in that the results may be used as early warning system for bankruptcy prediction of KOSDAQ firms.

Reliability and Validity of Korean version of GRIT (한국판 GRIT 척도 : 신뢰도, 타당도 및 요인구조 연구)

  • Lee, Ung;Lim, Se-Won;Shin, Young-Chul;Shin, Dong-Won;Oh, Kang Seob;Kim, Sun-Young;Kim, Young Hwan;Jeon, Sang Won
    • Anxiety and mood
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.53-60
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    • 2019
  • Objective : GRIT is a non-cognitive trait which is defined as perseverance and passion for long-term goals. It predicts success, performance and thedifference from other traits. The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability and validity of the Korean version of the GRIT scale. Methods : A total of 92 patients were enrolled in the study. All patients received psychiatric assessment including Clinical Useful Depression Outcome Scale (CUDOS), Clinical Useful Anxiety Outcome Scale (CUXOS), Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-15), Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale (CDRS), Brief Resilience Scale (BRS), and GRIT as well as demographic assessment. Cronbach's alpha coefficient of total GRIT score and the split-half reliability of each item was calculated to assess test reliability. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were performed to select the best fitting model and assess construct validity. Finally, a correlation analysis was performed to check convergent and discriminant validity. Results : Cronbach's alpha coefficient for GRIT was found to be 0.85 and all Cronbach's alpha were more than 0.8 even in cases where all items were deleted. We found 3 appropriate factor models in exploratory factor analysis, compared them with 3 models and chose the 2-factor model as the most suitable based on the best fit test. Finally, correlation of the GRIT with CUDOS, CUXOS, PHQ-15, CDRS and BRS were statistically significant (all p<0.01), with relatively low correlation coefficient. Conclusion : This study indicates that the Korean version of GRIT is a reliable and valid instrument for investigating individual power of passion and perseverance.

Investigating Dynamic Mutation Process of Issues Using Unstructured Text Analysis (부도예측을 위한 KNN 앙상블 모형의 동시 최적화)

  • Min, Sung-Hwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.139-157
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    • 2016
  • Bankruptcy involves considerable costs, so it can have significant effects on a country's economy. Thus, bankruptcy prediction is an important issue. Over the past several decades, many researchers have addressed topics associated with bankruptcy prediction. Early research on bankruptcy prediction employed conventional statistical methods such as univariate analysis, discriminant analysis, multiple regression, and logistic regression. Later on, many studies began utilizing artificial intelligence techniques such as inductive learning, neural networks, and case-based reasoning. Currently, ensemble models are being utilized to enhance the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction. Ensemble classification involves combining multiple classifiers to obtain more accurate predictions than those obtained using individual models. Ensemble learning techniques are known to be very useful for improving the generalization ability of the classifier. Base classifiers in the ensemble must be as accurate and diverse as possible in order to enhance the generalization ability of an ensemble model. Commonly used methods for constructing ensemble classifiers include bagging, boosting, and random subspace. The random subspace method selects a random feature subset for each classifier from the original feature space to diversify the base classifiers of an ensemble. Each ensemble member is trained by a randomly chosen feature subspace from the original feature set, and predictions from each ensemble member are combined by an aggregation method. The k-nearest neighbors (KNN) classifier is robust with respect to variations in the dataset but is very sensitive to changes in the feature space. For this reason, KNN is a good classifier for the random subspace method. The KNN random subspace ensemble model has been shown to be very effective for improving an individual KNN model. The k parameter of KNN base classifiers and selected feature subsets for base classifiers play an important role in determining the performance of the KNN ensemble model. However, few studies have focused on optimizing the k parameter and feature subsets of base classifiers in the ensemble. This study proposed a new ensemble method that improves upon the performance KNN ensemble model by optimizing both k parameters and feature subsets of base classifiers. A genetic algorithm was used to optimize the KNN ensemble model and improve the prediction accuracy of the ensemble model. The proposed model was applied to a bankruptcy prediction problem by using a real dataset from Korean companies. The research data included 1800 externally non-audited firms that filed for bankruptcy (900 cases) or non-bankruptcy (900 cases). Initially, the dataset consisted of 134 financial ratios. Prior to the experiments, 75 financial ratios were selected based on an independent sample t-test of each financial ratio as an input variable and bankruptcy or non-bankruptcy as an output variable. Of these, 24 financial ratios were selected by using a logistic regression backward feature selection method. The complete dataset was separated into two parts: training and validation. The training dataset was further divided into two portions: one for the training model and the other to avoid overfitting. The prediction accuracy against this dataset was used to determine the fitness value in order to avoid overfitting. The validation dataset was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the final model. A 10-fold cross-validation was implemented to compare the performances of the proposed model and other models. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model, the classification accuracy of the proposed model was compared with that of other models. The Q-statistic values and average classification accuracies of base classifiers were investigated. The experimental results showed that the proposed model outperformed other models, such as the single model and random subspace ensemble model.

A Study on the Moderating Effect of Perceived Voluntariness in the Organizational Information System Usage and Performance (정보시스템 사용과 성과에 있어서 자발성의 조절효과에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Seung-Chang;Lee, Ho-Geun;Jung, Chang-Wook;Chung, Nam-Ho;Suh, Eung-Kyo
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.195-221
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    • 2009
  • According to an industry report, a large number of organizations have invested in Organizational Information System(OIS) in the past few years. Several research results indicate that successful investments in OIS lead to productivity enhancement, while failed ones result in undesirable consequences such as financial losses and dissatisfaction among employees. In spite of huge investments, however, many organizations have failed in achieving the hoped-for returns from OIS. Thus, understanding user acceptance, adoption, and usage of new IS(Information Systems) is an important issue for IS practitioners. Indeed, study of the user acceptance of new information system has been one of the most important research topics in the contemporary IS literature. Several theoretical models are tested to examine 'user acceptance' and 'usage behavior' in IS context. While many research models incorporate 'ease of use' or 'usefulness' as important factors in explaining user acceptance, Technology Acceptance Model(TAM) has been one of the most widely applied models in user acceptance and usage behavior. Even in recent IS studies that employ theories of innovation diffusion in the area of IS implementation, a major focus has been on the user's perception of information technologies. In this research, we study 'voluntariness' as an important factor in IS acceptance by users. Voluntariness is defined as "the degree to which the use of the innovation is perceived as being voluntary, or of free will" When examining the diffusion of accepting OIS, a thoughtful consideration should be given to 'perceived voluntariness.' Current article has following research questions: 1) What models are appropriate to explain the success of OIS? and 2) How does the 'voluntariness' affect the success of OIS? In order to answer these questions, a research model is proposed to describe the detailed nature of association among three independent variables (IT usage level, task interdependency, and organizational support), a mediating variable (IS usage), a dependent variable (perceived performance), and a moderating variable(perceived voluntariness). The central claim of this article is that organizations hardly realize expected returns from OIS investments unless perceived voluntariness is effectively managed after operating OIS. As an example of OIS in this study we have selected the Intranet of Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF). ROKAF has implemented the Intranet in an attempt to improve communication and coordination within the organization. To test our research model and hypotheses, survey questionnaires were first sent out to 400 Intranet users. With the assistance of ROKAF, Intranet users were initially identified among its members, and subjects were randomly drawn from the pool. 377 survey responses were finally returned. The unit of measurement and analysis in this research is a personal level. Path analysis based on structural equation modeling was used to test research hypotheses. Construct validity represents accordance between the theoretical base concept of constructs and its measurement items. Tests for the reliability and discriminant validity are accepted, thus verifying our survey instrument. In this research, we have proposed a conceptual framework to highlight the importance of perceived voluntariness after organization deploys OIS. The results of our analysis present several key finding. First, all three independent variables (IT usage level, task interdependency, and organizational support) have significant effects on IS usage, which will eventually improve performance. Thus, IS usage plays a mediating role between antecedent variables (IT usage level. task interdependency, and organizational support) and performance improvement. Second, the effect of the task dependency was the highest for IS usage among the three antecedent variables. This is highly plausible since one of the Intranet's major capabilities is to facilitate communication among members within an organization. Accordingly, we conclude that the higher the task dependency, the higher Intranet usage. The effect of user's IT usage level was the second, while the effect of the organizational support was the third. Finally, the perceived voluntariness plays a pivotal role in enhancing perceived performance in personal level after launching the Intranet. Relationships among investigated variables were significantly different between groups with a high level and a low level of voluntariness. The impact of the Intranet usage on the performance was greater in the higher level voluntariness group than in the lower one. For the lower level voluntariness group, the user's IT usage had the highest effect on the Intranet usage among the three antecedent variables. In short, our study suggests that the higher the perceived voluntariness is the more IS usage will be. Perceived voluntariness was found to have a moderating effect on the relationships among user IT usage level, task interdependency, IS usage, and perceived performance, supporting all the hypotheses on the moderating effect. Most of all, user IT usage level has the strongest influence on IS usage, indicating that users with superior IT usage are more likely to enjoy a high level of perceived performance.

The Effects of Environmental Dynamism on Supply Chain Commitment in the High-tech Industry: The Roles of Flexibility and Dependence (첨단산업의 환경동태성이 공급체인의 결속에 미치는 영향: 유연성과 의존성의 역할)

  • Kim, Sang-Deok;Ji, Seong-Goo
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.31-54
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    • 2007
  • The exchange between buyers and sellers in the industrial market is changing from short-term to long-term relationships. Long-term relationships are governed mainly by formal contracts or informal agreements, but many scholars are now asserting that controlling relationship by using formal contracts under environmental dynamism is inappropriate. In this case, partners will depend on each other's flexibility or interdependence. The former, flexibility, provides a general frame of reference, order, and standards against which to guide and assess appropriate behavior in dynamic and ambiguous situations, thus motivating the value-oriented performance goals shared between partners. It is based on social sacrifices, which can potentially minimize any opportunistic behaviors. The later, interdependence, means that each firm possesses a high level of dependence in an dynamic channel relationship. When interdependence is high in magnitude and symmetric, each firm enjoys a high level of power and the bonds between the firms should be reasonably strong. Strong shared power is likely to promote commitment because of the common interests, attention, and support found in such channel relationships. This study deals with environmental dynamism in high-tech industry. Firms in the high-tech industry regard it as a key success factor to successfully cope with environmental changes. However, due to the lack of studies dealing with environmental dynamism and supply chain commitment in the high-tech industry, it is very difficult to find effective strategies to cope with them. This paper presents the results of an empirical study on the relationship between environmental dynamism and supply chain commitment in the high-tech industry. We examined the effects of consumer, competitor, and technological dynamism on supply chain commitment. Additionally, we examined the moderating effects of flexibility and dependence of supply chains. This study was confined to the type of high-tech industry which has the characteristics of rapid technology change and short product lifecycle. Flexibility among the firms of this industry, having the characteristic of hard and fast growth, is more important here than among any other industry. Thus, a variety of environmental dynamism can affect a supply chain relationship. The industries targeted industries were electronic parts, metal product, computer, electric machine, automobile, and medical precision manufacturing industries. Data was collected as follows. During the survey, the researchers managed to obtain the list of parts suppliers of 2 companies, N and L, with an international competitiveness in the mobile phone manufacturing industry; and of the suppliers in a business relationship with S company, a semiconductor manufacturing company. They were asked to respond to the survey via telephone and e-mail. During the two month period of February-April 2006, we were able to collect data from 44 companies. The respondents were restricted to direct dealing authorities and subcontractor company (the supplier) staff with at least three months of dealing experience with a manufacture (an industrial material buyer). The measurement validation procedures included scale reliability; discriminant and convergent validity were used to validate measures. Also, the reliability measurements traditionally employed, such as the Cronbach's alpha, were used. All the reliabilities were greater than.70. A series of exploratory factor analyses was conducted. We conducted confirmatory factor analyses to assess the validity of our measurements. A series of chi-square difference tests were conducted so that the discriminant validity could be ensured. For each pair, we estimated two models-an unconstrained model and a constrained model-and compared the two model fits. All these tests supported discriminant validity. Also, all items loaded significantly on their respective constructs, providing support for convergent validity. We then examined composite reliability and average variance extracted (AVE). The composite reliability of each construct was greater than.70. The AVE of each construct was greater than.50. According to the multiple regression analysis, customer dynamism had a negative effect and competitor dynamism had a positive effect on a supplier's commitment. In addition, flexibility and dependence had significant moderating effects on customer and competitor dynamism. On the other hand, all hypotheses about technological dynamism had no significant effects on commitment. In other words, technological dynamism had no direct effect on supplier's commitment and was not moderated by the flexibility and dependence of the supply chain. This study makes its contribution in the point of view that this is a rare study on environmental dynamism and supply chain commitment in the field of high-tech industry. Especially, this study verified the effects of three sectors of environmental dynamism on supplier's commitment. Also, it empirically tested how the effects were moderated by flexibility and dependence. The results showed that flexibility and interdependence had a role to strengthen supplier's commitment under environmental dynamism in high-tech industry. Thus relationship managers in high-tech industry should make supply chain relationship flexible and interdependent. The limitations of the study are as follows; First, about the research setting, the study was conducted with high-tech industry, in which the direction of the change in the power balance of supply chain dyads is usually determined by manufacturers. So we have a difficulty with generalization. We need to control the power structure between partners in a future study. Secondly, about flexibility, we treated it throughout the paper as positive, but it can also be negative, i.e. violating an agreement or moving, but in the wrong direction, etc. Therefore we need to investigate the multi-dimensionality of flexibility in future research.

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Bankruptcy Type Prediction Using A Hybrid Artificial Neural Networks Model (하이브리드 인공신경망 모형을 이용한 부도 유형 예측)

  • Jo, Nam-ok;Kim, Hyun-jung;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.79-99
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    • 2015
  • The prediction of bankruptcy has been extensively studied in the accounting and finance field. It can have an important impact on lending decisions and the profitability of financial institutions in terms of risk management. Many researchers have focused on constructing a more robust bankruptcy prediction model. Early studies primarily used statistical techniques such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis for bankruptcy prediction. However, many studies have demonstrated that artificial intelligence (AI) approaches, such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, case-based reasoning (CBR), and support vector machine (SVM), have been outperforming statistical techniques since 1990s for business classification problems because statistical methods have some rigid assumptions in their application. In previous studies on corporate bankruptcy, many researchers have focused on developing a bankruptcy prediction model using financial ratios. However, there are few studies that suggest the specific types of bankruptcy. Previous bankruptcy prediction models have generally been interested in predicting whether or not firms will become bankrupt. Most of the studies on bankruptcy types have focused on reviewing the previous literature or performing a case study. Thus, this study develops a model using data mining techniques for predicting the specific types of bankruptcy as well as the occurrence of bankruptcy in Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms in terms of profitability, stability, and activity index. Thus, firms will be able to prevent it from occurring in advance. We propose a hybrid approach using two artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of bankruptcy types. The first is a back-propagation neural network (BPN) model using supervised learning for bankruptcy prediction and the second is a self-organizing map (SOM) model using unsupervised learning to classify bankruptcy data into several types. Based on the constructed model, we predict the bankruptcy of companies by applying the BPN model to a validation set that was not utilized in the development of the model. This allows for identifying the specific types of bankruptcy by using bankruptcy data predicted by the BPN model. We calculated the average of selected input variables through statistical test for each cluster to interpret characteristics of the derived clusters in the SOM model. Each cluster represents bankruptcy type classified through data of bankruptcy firms, and input variables indicate financial ratios in interpreting the meaning of each cluster. The experimental result shows that each of five bankruptcy types has different characteristics according to financial ratios. Type 1 (severe bankruptcy) has inferior financial statements except for EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) to sales based on the clustering results. Type 2 (lack of stability) has a low quick ratio, low stockholder's equity to total assets, and high total borrowings to total assets. Type 3 (lack of activity) has a slightly low total asset turnover and fixed asset turnover. Type 4 (lack of profitability) has low retained earnings to total assets and EBITDA to sales which represent the indices of profitability. Type 5 (recoverable bankruptcy) includes firms that have a relatively good financial condition as compared to other bankruptcy types even though they are bankrupt. Based on the findings, researchers and practitioners engaged in the credit evaluation field can obtain more useful information about the types of corporate bankruptcy. In this paper, we utilized the financial ratios of firms to classify bankruptcy types. It is important to select the input variables that correctly predict bankruptcy and meaningfully classify the type of bankruptcy. In a further study, we will include non-financial factors such as size, industry, and age of the firms. Thus, we can obtain realistic clustering results for bankruptcy types by combining qualitative factors and reflecting the domain knowledge of experts.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

A study on the prediction of korean NPL market return (한국 NPL시장 수익률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyeon Su;Jeong, Seung Hwan;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.123-139
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    • 2019
  • The Korean NPL market was formed by the government and foreign capital shortly after the 1997 IMF crisis. However, this market is short-lived, as the bad debt has started to increase after the global financial crisis in 2009 due to the real economic recession. NPL has become a major investment in the market in recent years when the domestic capital market's investment capital began to enter the NPL market in earnest. Although the domestic NPL market has received considerable attention due to the overheating of the NPL market in recent years, research on the NPL market has been abrupt since the history of capital market investment in the domestic NPL market is short. In addition, decision-making through more scientific and systematic analysis is required due to the decline in profitability and the price fluctuation due to the fluctuation of the real estate business. In this study, we propose a prediction model that can determine the achievement of the benchmark yield by using the NPL market related data in accordance with the market demand. In order to build the model, we used Korean NPL data from December 2013 to December 2017 for about 4 years. The total number of things data was 2291. As independent variables, only the variables related to the dependent variable were selected for the 11 variables that indicate the characteristics of the real estate. In order to select the variables, one to one t-test and logistic regression stepwise and decision tree were performed. Seven independent variables (purchase year, SPC (Special Purpose Company), municipality, appraisal value, purchase cost, OPB (Outstanding Principle Balance), HP (Holding Period)). The dependent variable is a bivariate variable that indicates whether the benchmark rate is reached. This is because the accuracy of the model predicting the binomial variables is higher than the model predicting the continuous variables, and the accuracy of these models is directly related to the effectiveness of the model. In addition, in the case of a special purpose company, whether or not to purchase the property is the main concern. Therefore, whether or not to achieve a certain level of return is enough to make a decision. For the dependent variable, we constructed and compared the predictive model by calculating the dependent variable by adjusting the numerical value to ascertain whether 12%, which is the standard rate of return used in the industry, is a meaningful reference value. As a result, it was found that the hit ratio average of the predictive model constructed using the dependent variable calculated by the 12% standard rate of return was the best at 64.60%. In order to propose an optimal prediction model based on the determined dependent variables and 7 independent variables, we construct a prediction model by applying the five methodologies of discriminant analysis, logistic regression analysis, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model we tried to compare them. To do this, 10 sets of training data and testing data were extracted using 10 fold validation method. After building the model using this data, the hit ratio of each set was averaged and the performance was compared. As a result, the hit ratio average of prediction models constructed by using discriminant analysis, logistic regression model, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model were 64.40%, 65.12%, 63.54%, 67.40%, and 60.51%, respectively. It was confirmed that the model using the artificial neural network is the best. Through this study, it is proved that it is effective to utilize 7 independent variables and artificial neural network prediction model in the future NPL market. The proposed model predicts that the 12% return of new things will be achieved beforehand, which will help the special purpose companies make investment decisions. Furthermore, we anticipate that the NPL market will be liquidated as the transaction proceeds at an appropriate price.

A Study on the Determinant Factors on Return in Internet Clothing Purchase (인터넷 쇼핑에서 의류제품 반품행동 결정요인)

  • Ji, Hye-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.32 no.12
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    • pp.1891-1902
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    • 2008
  • With concerns for consumers' return behaviors affecting internet shopping malls' profits and product management in the internet clothing market, this study is designed to investigate determinants affecting return and path models for return behaviors. For an empirical study, questionnaires are prepared and respondents in their 20s and 30s with internet clothing purchase experience are selected using the convenience sampling. A total of 517 questionnaires are used for the final analysis. Data are analyzed by using SPSS 12.0 software and descriptive statistics, $x^2$-test, discriminant analysis, regression analysis, and path analysis is conducted. The results are as follows. First, ones who have returned after purchasing clothing items in internet shopping reached 63.4% of the total consumers. Respondents returned items with price at 50 thousand won or less stood at 67.2%, and the most frequent return shopping malls are open markets with their return rate at 51.1%. Second, variables such as risk perception, information search, impulse buying, buying experience, and age have a positive effect on return experience. Impulse buying and buying experience turn out to have a significant effect on the degree of return, but risk perception, information search, age, and gender to have an insignificant effect. Return intention is significantly affected by risk perception, gender, and age. Third, the analysis of path model for return experience shows that perceived risk has a positively effect, and information search has a direct effect as well as an indirect effect through buying experience or impulse buying. The analysis of path model for the degree of return shows that risk perception does not have effect, but information search has indirect effect through buying experience or impulse buying. This study is thought to find consumers' return behavior characteristics in online shopping, and help businesses operating online shopping malls to efficiently manage returns and set up strategies against returns.

Examining the Moderating Effect of Involvement in the Internet Purchase Decision Process (인터넷 구매결정과정에서의 관여도의 조절효과에 관한 연구)

  • Kwahk, Kee-Young;Ji, So-Young
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.15-40
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    • 2008
  • With the explosive growth of the Internet, Internet shopping malls have become recognized as one of the major purchasing channels for consumers, as well as one of the competitive distribution channels for companies that allow them to contact with customers without intermediaries. It has motivated information systems(IS) researchers to examine the factors influencing consumer behavior and the purchase decision process in the context of Internet shopping malls. Despite the extensive research that has been conducted on the purchase decision process of consumers in online shopping malls, the results have demonstrated a need for further understanding of consumer behavior due to the unique features of virtual space and the characteristics of online consumers. Previous studies from marketing and consumer behavior domains have suggested that the concept of involvement plays an important role in explaining consumers' purchase behavior. Despite the critical role of involvement and the explosive growth of e-commerce, little research has examined the role of involvement in the Internet shopping mall context. With this motivation, this study has two research objectives. First, it introduces and tests an theoretical model capable of better explaining consumers' intention to purchase in the Internet shopping mall context. The proposed model extends and integrates existing models on purchase intention by incorporating purchase experience, innovativeness, and perceived self-control as the consumer factors, along with perceived risk, information provision, and perceived price as the Internet shopping mall factors. Second, this study examines how involvement differences may affect consumers' intention to purchase. For this purpose, two factors from involvement theory, involvement type and involvement level, are introduced into the research model as moderating variables. In order to test the proposed model, the overall approach employed was a field study using the structural equation model. We developed our data collection instrument by adopting existing validated questions wherever possible. All question items were measured with a seven-point, Likert-type scale, with anchors ranging from 'strongly disagree' to 'strongly agree.' Two IS researchers reviewed the instrument and checked its face validity. We collected empirical data for this study over a period of two weeks from subjects who had purchase experiences through Internet shopping malls. A total of 473 complete and valid responses were obtained. We carried out data analysis using a two-step methodology with AMOS 4.0. The first step in the data analysis was to establish the convergent and discriminant validity of the constructs. In the second step, we examined the structural model based on the cleansed measurement model. The empirical results partly support the proposed model and identify the moderating effect of involvement differences. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed, along with its limitations.