• Title/Summary/Keyword: Discriminant 모형

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Optimization of Multiclass Support Vector Machine using Genetic Algorithm: Application to the Prediction of Corporate Credit Rating (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 다분류 SVM의 최적화: 기업신용등급 예측에의 응용)

  • Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2014
  • Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.

The Family Relationship Scale : Re-validation ("가족관계척도" 활용을 위한 타당도 연구)

  • Yang, Ok-Kyung;Lee, Min-Young
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.54
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    • pp.5-33
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    • 2003
  • This study is about the re-validation evaluation of the family Relationship Scale (FRS), developed to measure the family relationship in the social work practice. This study aims at re-validating the FRS, developed and validated in by Yang in 2001 for more general utilization. The sample was married mates and females residing in Seoul. For Face Validity, the content analysis was performed, and the FRS was re-validated in the dimensions of Love & Caring, Acceptance, and Recognition, positive affection, empathy, and autonomy and flexibility for each area. Internal reliability was .93, and internal consistency among three dimensions was 93%. For Empirical Validity, the Construct validity, the Criterion validity, and the Discriminant validity were performed. Construct Validity was validated through factor analyses. Commonalities for the factor analysis was 54%, and the factor loading for each factor was over .45. The confirmative factor analysis also confirmed the fitness of the scale. For Predictive Validity of Criterion Validity, regression analysis showed that the family stress scores became lower as the scores of the family relationship became higher; the discriminant analysis revealed that the family stress turned low ill tile group of high scores of family relationship. The Correlation analysis for Concurrent Validity was performed and the results showed the positive and significant relationship with a couple communication level (r=54) and a parent-child communication level (r=64). Life satisfaction and mental health level also revealed significantly positive correlation to prove Convergent Validity. Physical health level revealed a weak relationship with family relationship providing the evidence of Discriminant Validity. Discriminance was also proved by the analysis of variance with demographics. Thus, Cross Validation was confirmed the validation of the FRS through the various analyses with the married population. This study result improved the validity generalization of the Scale and verify the generalized usage of this sociometric scale in the field of social work practice.

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Customer Retention Strategies of Domestic Wireless Telecommunication Service Providers at the Introduction of MNP (번호 이동성 시행 하에서 국내 이동통신 사업자들의 고객 유지 전략)

  • Yang, Hee-Tae;Choi, Mun-Kee
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.28 no.2B
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    • pp.157-169
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    • 2003
  • The customer retention is one of major goals for telecommunication service providers as MNP(Mobile Number Portability) would be enforced soon. The purpose of this study is to construct a customer retention model by (1) extracting the statistically significant determinants that influence on the Out-bounding churn and In-bounding churn separately and (2) ranking the importance of sub-factors to minimize Out-bounding churn and to satisfy In-bounding churn. This model applies to domestic wireless telecommunication service providers and customer retention strategies are suggested based on the result.

The necessity of the NCS curriculum introducing & Convergence for culture and arts management at a four-year college (4년제 대학에서 문화예술경영 NCS 교육과정도입과 융합의 필요성)

  • Choi, Jeong-Il;Rhoon, Hae-Choon
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.205-212
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the necessity of introduction of NCS curriculum for culture and arts management at four - year college and whether NCS education is helpful for employment and acquiring certification. For this purpose, we set up the research model "Culture Arts Management NCS Education, Necessity of NCS curriculum introducing at 4-year universities, Help in employment and business performance" and surveyed. As a result, Chronbach's Alpha coefficients were calculated as 0.821, 0.807, and 0.830 and the internal consistency was secured. The validity analysis of the measured variables was also calculated above the reference value(0.5). And it was found that both intensive validity and discriminant validity were secured. As a result of the hypothesis test, the standardization coefficients were 0.608 and 0.977, and both hypotheses showed positive (+) relationship. Therefore, each research hypothesis was highly correlated.

The Relationship between Participation Motivation, Fun factor, Leisure satisfaction and continued exercise of elderly sports (노인 스포츠 참여동기와 재미요인, 여가만족 및 운동지속의 관계)

  • Kim, Hwa-Ryong;Seong, Moon-Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Applied Science and Technology
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.807-819
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the motivation to participate in sports for elderly, the factors for fun, leisure satisfaction, and exercise persistence. In order to analyze the data, a total of 200 questionnaires were distributed to senior citizens participating in sports programs at the Senior Citizen Welfare Center in Seoul, and a total of 183 copies (91.5%) of data were used as valid samples excluding 17 unfaithful responses. For data processing, frequency analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, Cronbach's α, concentration validity, discriminant validity, concept reliability, correlation analysis, and structural equation model verification were performed using IBM AMOS 21.First, the motivation to participate in sports for the elderly influenced the fun factor. Second, the motivation to participate in sports for the elderly influenced leisure satisfaction. Third, the motivation to participate in sports for the elderly influenced the exercise continuation. Fourth, the fun factor of sports for the elderly influenced leisure satisfaction. Fifth, the fun factor of elderly sports influenced the exercise continuation. Sixth, the satisfaction of sports for the elderly affected the exercise continuation.

The Development and Validity of the Empathy Rating Scale by a Third Party (타인평정 공감 척도의 개발 및 타당화 연구)

  • Kim, Song-Ji;Cho, Seong-Ho
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.17 no.8
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    • pp.435-453
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to develop the Empathy Rating Scale by a third party and examine the validity of the scale. Based on the results of the pilot study, the study 1 focused on developing Empathy Rating Scale by a third party. From the exploratory factor analysis on a total of 15 preliminary items, three fators had been derived: 'Beginning of empathy', 'Process of empathy', 'Result of empathy'. The study 2 identified its validity by confirmatory factor analysis, correlation analysis, and discriminant analysis. Those three factors indicated the reasonable fit index by confirmatory factor addition, this scale identified a significant positive relation with authenticity, emotional clarity, and intimacy. On the other hand, it indicated a negative relation with anxiety attachment and rejection attachment. Therefore, the results indicated that this scale on a total of 11 item has a reliable convergent validity. Finally, implication and limitation of this study were discussed in relation with future studies.

Analysis of facial expression recognition (표정 분류 연구)

  • Son, Nayeong;Cho, Hyunsun;Lee, Sohyun;Song, Jongwoo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.539-554
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    • 2018
  • Effective interaction between user and device is considered an important ability of IoT devices. For some applications, it is necessary to recognize human facial expressions in real time and make accurate judgments in order to respond to situations correctly. Therefore, many researches on facial image analysis have been preceded in order to construct a more accurate and faster recognition system. In this study, we constructed an automatic recognition system for facial expressions through two steps - a facial recognition step and a classification step. We compared various models with different sets of data with pixel information, landmark coordinates, Euclidean distances among landmark points, and arctangent angles. We found a fast and efficient prediction model with only 30 principal components of face landmark information. We applied several prediction models, that included linear discriminant analysis (LDA), random forests, support vector machine (SVM), and bagging; consequently, an SVM model gives the best result. The LDA model gives the second best prediction accuracy but it can fit and predict data faster than SVM and other methods. Finally, we compared our method to Microsoft Azure Emotion API and Convolution Neural Network (CNN). Our method gives a very competitive result.

Development and Initial Validation of the Korean Job Crafting Scale (한국판 잡 크래프팅 척도 개발 및 타당화)

  • Lee, Hyun-Eung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.10
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    • pp.611-623
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to develop and validate the Korean Job Crafting Scale. First, previous studies on the concept and measurement of job crafting were reviewed, and items were developed based on this review. The content validity of the scale was examined using a focus group interview consisting of 10 HRM professionals. Following modification of the items, the measurements were administered to 305 employees from 8 Korean firms, and exploratory factor analysis was conducted in order to examine the factorial validity of the scale. Subsequently, confirmatory factor analysis was implemented concerning data collected from 295 employees who work in 7 Korean firms. Results indicated that the measurement model sufficiently explained the data at an appropriate level, and the subscales featured convergent and discriminant validity. If the scale developed in this study is validated in further studies, it can be employed to conduct research regarding job crafting in Korean organizations.

The Development of Happiness Index for Korean (한국인의 행복지수 공식 개발)

  • Kim, Myoung-So;Han, Young-Seok
    • Survey Research
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.1-38
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    • 2006
  • This study was conducted to develop a happiness index for Korean. 16 factors of happiness derived from both exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis based on a nationwide sample of 1503 Korean adults were reclassified into 3 components of Alderfer's need theory. The LISREL was used to measure the weight of each happiness factor. The results showed that happiness index was functioned by a formula(Happiness=2.5*existence+2.5*relationship+5*growth). Applying this formula, the average happiness score for Korean was 57.71. It was also demonstrated that the degree of happiness differed according to individual's gender, region, and income. Men was happier than women, while there was no significant difference among ages. As far as the region concerned, those who live in Seoul and Daejeon were happier than the others. People who earn over 2,500,000 won per month were happier than the others in terms of economic status. Finally, the result of the discriminant function analysis revealed that individual or psychological growth factor was more important than existence and relationship factors. Based on these significant research findings, practical implications and future research directions were discussed.

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A Study on Predictors of Academic Achievement in College Students : Focused on J University (대학생의 학업성취도 예측요인 연구 : J 대학을 중심으로)

  • Son, Yo-Han;Kim, In-Gyu
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.519-529
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to establish a model for predicting academic achievement of college students and to reveal the interrelationship and relative influence of each factor. For this, we surveyed the personal factors and learning strategy factors of 1,310 learners at J University, and analyzed the discriminant factors and patterns of the predictors of academic achievement through the decision tree analysis, a data mining method, and examined the relative effects of each factor. Binary logistic regression analysis was performed for viewing. As a result, the most important factor for predicting academic achievement was efficacy, and other factors such as motivation, time management, and depression were predictive of academic achievement. The patterns of factors predicting academic achievement were found to be high in efficacy and time management, and high in motivation for learning even if the efficacy was moderate. Low efficacy and learning motivation, and high depression have been shown to decrease academic achievement. Based on these results, the study suggested the efficacy and motivation to improve academic achievement of college students, strengthening time management education, and managing negative emotions.