• Title/Summary/Keyword: Disaster risk assessment

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Life Risk Assessment of Landslide Disaster Using Spatial Prediction Model (공간 예측 모델을 이용한 산사태 재해의 인명 위험평가)

  • Jang, Dong-Ho;Chung, C.F.
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.373-383
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    • 2006
  • The spatial mapping of risk is very useful data in planning for disaster preparedness. This research presents a methodology for making the landslide life risk map in the Boeun area which had considerable landslide damage following heavy rain in August, 1998. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability. The three-stage procedure consists of: (i)construction of a hazard prediction map of "future" hazardous events; (ii) validation of prediction results and estimation of the probability of occurrence for each predicted hazard level; and (iii) generation of risk maps with the introduction of human life factors representing assumed or established vulnerability levels by combining the prediction map in the first stage and the estimated probabilities in the second stage with human life data. The significance of the landslide susceptibility map was evaluated by computing a prediction rate curve. It is used that the Bayesian prediction model and the case study results (the landslide susceptibility map and prediction rate curve) can be prepared for prevention of future landslide life risk map. Data from the Bayesian model-based landslide susceptibility map and prediction ratio curves were used together with human rife data to draft future landslide life risk maps. Results reveal that individual pixels had low risks, but the total risk death toll was estimated at 3.14 people. In particular, the dangerous areas involving an estimated 1/100 people were shown to have the highest risk among all research-target areas. Three people were killed in this area when landslides occurred in 1998. Thus, this risk map can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy decision-makers, and subsequently can be used as useful data in preventing disasters. In particular, drafting of maps on landslide risk in various steps will enable one to forecast the occurrence of disasters.

Vehicular Collision Risk Assessment on the Highway Bridges in South Korea (국내 고속도로 교량의 차량 충돌 위험도 평가)

  • Min, Geun-Hyung;Kim, Woo-Seok;Cho, Jun-Sang;Gil, Heung-Bae
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2016
  • Vehicle collision to bridges has been known as one of the causes of bridge collapse, and the emergency plans and disaster management has been recently emphasized to secure public safety. This study conducted risk assessment of vehicular collision to bridges for highway bridges in Korea. Risk assessment consists of three steps; preliminary risk analysis(PRA), simplified risk analysis(SRA) and detailed risk analysis(DRA). The PRA firstly screens out the possibility of occurrence of the event. The SRA identifies influencial factors to risk of the event and evaluates risk scores to determine risk levels and necessity of DRA that investigates the risk of the bridge in detail. This study focuses on the methodology of the risk assessment, especially the SRA, and the stratification methods which evaluate risk levels of vehicular collision. The analysis results were compared to the reported vehicular collision accidents. The proposed method can be utilized in similar disaster management area.

The Quantitative Risk Assessment for Railroad-tunnel Fire Incidents by using CFD code (CFD code를 이용한 철도터널 화재 위험도 평가)

  • Kim, H.B.;Lee, D.H.;Jang, Y.J.;Jung, W.S.
    • 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.169-172
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    • 2011
  • Recently, railroad long tunnels are increasing and growing longer due to topological feathers like a lot of mountain in Korea. But fire disaster of a long tunnel cause many people to injury and death. For that reason, at the early design stage of a long tunnel, risk assessment and mitigation measure of risk for satisfying tunnel safety are required. According to the railroad facility safety standard (Korean MLTM Announcement No. 2006-395), risk assessment for railroad-tunnel fire should be performed when design stage. Therefore, various methods of risk assessment for tunnel fire have been studied and applied. In the paper, QRA(Quantitative Risk Analysis) for fire risk assessment by using CFD code is presented and the usefulness of CFD is discussed.

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A Study on Fire Risk Assessment of the Temple Using Fire Loads (화재하중을 통한 사찰의 화재 위험성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Su-Young;Shin, Young-Ju;Park, Young-Ju;Lee, Hae-Pyeong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Institute of Fire Science and Engineering Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.409-415
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    • 2008
  • In this study, we considered the fire risk assessment of the temple using fire loads and the classification of combustibles. The building construction materials were classified as walls, beam-columns, floorings, ceiling panels and the loading combustibles were classified into fixed materials and movable materials. As a result, we confirmed that the total fire load of the Palsangjeon was $368\;kg/m^2$. The building construction materials accounted for approximately 93.8 percent of the total fire load and the loading combustibles accounted for approximately 6.2 percent.

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THE FUKUSHIMA DISASTER - SYSTEMIC FAILURES AS THE LACK OF RESILIENCE

  • Hollnagel, Erik;Fujita, Yushi
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.13-20
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    • 2013
  • This paper looks at the Fukushima disaster from the perspective of resilience engineering, which replaces a search for causes with an understanding of how the system failed in its performance. Referring to the four resilience abilities of responding, monitoring, learning, and anticipating, the paper focuses on how inadequate engineering anticipation or risk assessment during the design, in combination with inadequate response capabilities, precipitated the disaster. One lesson is that systems such as nuclear power plants are complicated, not only in how they function during everyday or exceptional conditions, but also during their whole life cycle. System functions are intrinsically coupled synchronically and diachronically in ways that may affect the ability to respond to extreme conditions.

Quantitative Risk Assessment Method for Deep Placed Underground Spaces (대심도지하공간의 정량적위험성 평가기법)

  • Lee, Chang-wook
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.92-119
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    • 2010
  • As the necessity to utilize deep-placed underground spaces is increasing, we have to seriously consider the safety problems arising from the U/G spaces which is a restricted environment. Due to the higher cost of land compensation for above ground area and environmental issues, the plan to utilize deep-placed U/G spaces is currently only being established for the construction of U/G road network and GTX. However it is also expected that the U/G spaces are to be used as a living space because of the growing desires to change the above ground areas into the environmentally green spaces. Accordingly it is necessary to protect the U/G environments which is vulnerable against desasters caused by fire, explosion, flooding, terrorism, electric power failure, etc. properly. We want to introduce the principles of the Quantitative Risk Assessment(QRA) method for preparedness against the desasters arising from U/G environments, and also want to introduce an example of QRA which was implemented for the GOTTHARD tunnel which is the longest one in Europe.

An Evaluation of the Quantitative Risk of Plastic Process Manufacturing Industries by Means of the 4M Method

  • Lee, Dong-Ho;Kim, Jong-In
    • International Journal of Safety
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.8-12
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    • 2007
  • This study includes a case study among plastic process manufacturing companies, based on which, the currently used 4M method is applied in terms of machine, media, man, and management, to conduct quantitative risk evaluation, and thus to contribute to reducing human and material loss as well as preventing accidents in industrial fields. The result of this study is analyzed based on the 4M-risk assessment to find out the hazardous risk elements, and the quantitative evaluation made it predictable the value of risk(frequency $\times$ intensity) in such classified levels as serious risk, critical risk, and intolerable risk. Further, Among the businesses with hazardous risk elements and high frequency of industrial disaster, risk analysis was conducted for each process, and as a result, 38 cases among 76, including those of serious risk, critical risk, and intolerable risk, were improved, and the risk was reduced. Besides, it is thought that with the engineering approach with 4M-Risk Assessment, the attempt to improve safety level contributes to prevention of accidents.

A Study on the Application of Business Disaster Reduction Activities to Strengthen the Business Continuity of Hydrogen Charging Stations (수소충전소의 사업연속성 강화를 위한 기업재해경감활동 적용 연구)

  • Jang Won Lee;Chang Soo Kim
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.411-420
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: In order to compensate for the limitations of the risk assessment of hydrogen charging stations, it is proposed to apply business disaster reduction activities as a way to strengthen safety and business continuity for accidents that may occur during operation. Method: We explored the application of business disaster reduction activities that can reduce, eliminate, transfer, and accept risks by classifying risks according to the passage of time in the installation and operation of hydrogen charging stations, identifying key tasks, deriving risk scenarios. Result: Existing research results are appropriately applied to the risk assessment conducted in the stage before the installation of hydrogen charging stations. However, there is a limit to the risks that can occur at the operational stage, so applying business disaster reduction activities with several example scenarios has resulted in that it can be applied as a way to strengthen safety and business continuity. Conclusion: All of the currently implemented risk assessments for hydrogen charging stations are being used appropriately. However, it proposes business disaster reduction activities that apply various risk scenarios as an evaluation and response to possible risks at the operational stage.