• 제목/요약/키워드: Direct Current Control

검색결과 650건 처리시간 0.028초

지하 공동구 화재재난 감지를 위한 음향수집 프로토타입 장치 및 시스템 모듈 개발 (Development of a Acoustic Acquisition Prototype device and System Modules for Fire Detection in the Underground Utility Tunnel)

  • 이병진;박철우;이미숙;정우석
    • 한국인터넷방송통신학회논문지
    • /
    • 제22권5호
    • /
    • pp.7-15
    • /
    • 2022
  • 지하 공동구 화재 발생에 따른 직·간접적 피해는 사회 전반에 매우 큰 영향을 미치므로 이를 사전에 예방 및 관리하기 위한 노력이 필요하다. 화재의 발생 원인 중 케이블 자체에서 발생하는 경우는 단락, 누전, 과전류에 의한 발화 및 도체 접속부 과열, 절연체의 졀연 파괴에 의한 스파크 발생으로 인한 발화가 대부분이다. 지하 공동구의 특성에 의해 발생하는 이러한 원인을 조기에 찾아내기 위해서 지하 공동구는 영상분석을 활용한 감지 시스템을 통해 재난 및 안전사고 방지를 위한 상시 관리를 하기 위한 노력을 하고 있으며, 이 중에서 CCTV 기반의 딥러닝 영상분석 기술을 적용한 화재 감지 시스템 개발사례가 보고되고 있다. 하지만 CCTV의 경우는 사각지대가 존재하기 때문에 이를 좀 더 보완하기 위해서 스파크 발생으로 불꽃이 발생하기 전 스파크 소리를 사전에 감지해 화재 예방을 할 수 있는 고성능의 음향 기반 딥러닝 모델을 개발하고자 한다. 본 연구에서 마이크 센서를 이용하여 지하 공동구 환경에서 음향을 수집을 할 수 있는 방안을 프로토타입 모듈 개발과 실험을 통해 제안하며, 결로가 많은 지하 공동구 환경에서 음향 센서를 배치하고 기능 이상 없이 실시간으로 정보 수집 여부에 대한 가능성을 검증한다.

Вступление Китая в новую фазу развития на фоне "торговой войны" с США: взгляд из России (A New Phase of China's Development Against the Background of "Trade War" with the US: View from Russia)

  • Lukonin, Sergey;Ignatev, Sergei
    • 분석과 대안
    • /
    • 제2권2호
    • /
    • pp.111-141
    • /
    • 2018
  • By the middle of 2018 there are signs of China's entry into a new period of development, characterized by a change in the old model: "market reforms-inner-party democratization - moderate foreign policy" to another: "market reforms - Xi Jinping personality cult - offensive foreign policy." This model contains the risks of arising of the contradiction between economic freedom and political-ideological rigidity which can lead to destabilization of the political life. However, in the current positive economic dynamics, these risks may come out, rather, in the medium and long term. Today, the political situation in China remains stable - despite growing dissatisfaction in scientific expert and educational circles due to increased control over the intellectual sphere by the authorities. The need for a new redistribution of power between central and provincial authorities could potentially disrupt political stability in the medium term, but, at the moment, is not a critical negative factor. The economic situation is positive-stable. Forecasts indicate a possible increase in China's GDP in 2018 at 6.5%. At the same time, there are negative expectations in connection with the Sino-US and potentially Sino-European "trade war". In the Chinese foreign policy, as a response to Western pressure, China increasingly uses the Russian direction of its diplomacy in the expanded version of Russia + SCO. The nuance here is seen in China's adjusted approach to the SCO: first of all, not as a mechanism for cooperation with Russia, but as an organization that allows using Russia's potential for pressure on the US in the Sino-US strategic rivalry. In the second half of 2018, the Chinese economy will continue to develop steadily, albeit with unresolved traditional problems (debts of provinces and state-owned enterprises, ineffective state sector, risks on the financial and real estate market). In politics, discontent with the cult of Xi will accumulate, but without real threats to its power. Weakening in economic opposition between China and the United States is possible due to Beijing's search for compromises on tariffs, intellectual property, trade deficit. To find such trade-offs, Xi will use the so-called. "Personal diplomacy" of direct contacts with Trump.

  • PDF

복합레진의 광중합 전·후와 shade guide의 색차 비교 (COLOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN RESIN COMPOSITES BEFORE- AND AFTER-POLYMERIZATION, AND SHADE GUIDES)

  • 전이주;조성식;엄정문
    • Restorative Dentistry and Endodontics
    • /
    • 제24권2호
    • /
    • pp.299-309
    • /
    • 1999
  • The composite resin, due to its esthetic qualities, is considered the material of choice for restoration of anterior teeth. With respect to shade control, the direct-placement resin composites offer some distinct advantages over indirect restorative procedures. Visible-light-cured (VLC) composites allow dentists to match existing tooth shades or to create new shades and to evaluate them immediately at the time of restoration placement. Optimal intraoral color control can be achieved if optical changes occurring during application are minimized. An ideal VLC composite, then, would be one which is optically stable throughout the polymerization process. The shade guides of the resin composites are generally made of plastic, rather than the actual composite material, and do not accurately depict the true shade, translucency, or opacity of the resin composite after polymerization. So the numerous problems associated with these shade guides lead to varied and sometimes unpredictable results. The aim of this study was to assess the color changes of current resin composite restorative materials which occur as a result of the polymerization process and to compare the color differences between the shade guides provided with the products and the actual resin composites before- and after-polymerization. The results obtained from this investigation should provide the clinician with information which may aid in improved color match of esthetic restoration. Five light activated, resin-based materials (${\AE}$litefil, Amelogen Universal, Spectrum TPH VeridonFil-Photo, and Z100) and shade guides were used in this study. Three specimens of each material and shade combination were made. Each material was condensed inside a 1.5mm thick metal mold with 10mm diameter and pressed between glass plates. Each material was measured immediately before polymerization, and polymerized with Curing Light XL 3000 (3M Dental products, USA) visible light-activation unit for 60 seconds at each side. The specimens were then polished sequentially on wet sandpaper. Shade guides were ground with polishing stones and rubber points (Shofu) to a thickness of approximately 1.5mm. Color characteristics were performed with a spectrophotometer (CM-3500d, Minolta Co., LTD). A computer-controlled spectrophotometer was used to determine CIELAB coordinates ($L^*$, $a^*$ and $b^*$) of each specimen and shade guide. The CIELAB measurements made it possible to evaluate the amount of the color difference values (${\Delta}E{^*}ab$) of resin composites before the polymerization process and shade guides using the post-polishing color of the composite as a control, CIE standard D65 was used as the light source. The results were as follows. 1. Each of the resin composites evaluated showed significant color changes during light-curing process. All the resin composites evaluated except all the tested shades of 2100 showed unacceptable level of color changes (${\Delta}E{^*}ab$ greater than 3.3) between pre-polymerization and post-polishing state. 2. Color differences between most of the resin composites tested and their corresponding shade guides were acceptable but those between C2 shade of ${\AE}$litefil and IE shade of Amelogen Universal and their respective shade guides exceeded what is acceptable. 3. Comparison of the mean ${\Delta}E{^*}ab$ values of materials revealed that Z100 showed the least overall color change between pre-polymerization and post-polishing state followed by ${\AE}$litefil, VeridonFil-Photo, Spectrum TPH, and Amelogen Universal in the order of increasing change and Amelogen Universal. Spectrum TPH, 2100, VeridonFil-Photo and ${\AE}$litefil for the color differences between actual resin and shade guide. 4. In the clinical environment, the shade guide is the better choice than the shade of the actual resin before polymerization when matching colors. But, it is recommended that custom shade guides be made from resin material itself for better color matching.

  • PDF

핵이식 마우스 생산에 관한 연구 (Studies on production of nuclear transplanted mouse embryos)

  • 이병천;조충호;황우석
    • 대한수의학회지
    • /
    • 제33권1호
    • /
    • pp.151-169
    • /
    • 1993
  • The present study was carried out to investigate the best condition for nuclear-cytoplasm fusion and in vitro culture of nuclear transplanted embryos and to investigate the production of nuclear transplanted offsprings. The nuclei from 2-, 4- and 8-cell mouse embryos were transferred into enucleated 2-cell embryos, and the reconstituted embryos were submitted to direct current(DC) pulses at output voltage of 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 kV/cm for 100, 150 and $200{\mu}$ sec to induce cell fusion. 1. The culture of intact or zona cut 2-cell embryos in the medium supplemented with cytochalasin B($5{\mu}g/m{\ell}$) and colcemide($0.1{\mu}g/m{\ell}$)for 30 and 60 minutes did not affect the development to later stage. 2. The in vitro developmental rates of group A(a nucleus from one of the blastomeres was removed) and B(electrofusion of group A) were significantly lower than that of control group(p<0.01). 3. When nuclear transplanted embryos were submitted to electrofusion, the significantly higher fusion rates of 2-cell donor nuclei were achieved at the electric field strength of DC 1.5kV/cm for 100 and $150{\mu}$ sec, DC 2.0 kV/cm for $100{\sim}200{\mu}$ sec than DC 1.0 kV/cm for 100 and $150{\mu}$ sec(p<0.01). The significantly higher fusion rates of 4-cell donor nuclei were achieved at DC 2.0 kV/cm for 100 and $150{\mu}$ sec than DC 1.0kV/cm for $100{\sim}200{\mu}$ sec(p<0.01). These fusion rates in 8-cell donor nuclei were 88.7~99.3%. 4. The developmental potency to blastocyst in 2- and 4-cell donor nuclei was significantly higher in DC 1.0 and 2.0 kV/cm for $100{\sim}200{\mu}$ sec treated group and DC 2.0 kV/cm for 150 and $200{\mu}$ sec treated group (p<0.01). The developmental potency to blastocyst in 8-cell donor nuclei was significantly higher in DC 2.0 kV/cm for $100{\mu}$ sec treated group than in DC 1.0 kV/cm for $100{\mu}$ sec treated group and DC 2.0 kV/cm for 150 and $200{\mu}$ sec treated group(p<001). 5. The developmental potency to blastocyst after nuclear transplantation was significantly higher in 2-cell donor nuclei than in 8-cell donor nuclei(p<0.01). 6. The success rate of nuclear injection into enucleated 2-cell embryos was significantly higher in 2-cell donor nuclei than in 4- or 8-cell donor nuclei(p<0.01). 7. The culture time taken for the nuclear transplanted 2-cell embryos to blastocyst stage was significantly longer in 2-cell donor nuclei than in 8-cell donor nuclei(p<0.01). 8. There was no significant difference in the developmental potency of nuclear transplanted embryos within the concentration of EGF at 0 to 15 ng per $m{\ell}$ of BMOC-3 solution. 9. The production rates of offspring after transfer of nuclear transplanted embryos to recipient mouse were significantly higher in 2-cell donor nuclei than in 8-cell donor nuclei(p<0.01).

  • PDF

원격의료서비스 수용요인의 구조적 관계 실증연구 (Structural Relationships Among Factors to Adoption of Telehealth Service)

  • 김성수;류시원
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
    • /
    • 제21권3호
    • /
    • pp.71-96
    • /
    • 2011
  • Within the traditional medical delivery system, patients residing in medically vulnerable areas, those with body movement difficulties, and nursing facility residents have had limited access to good healthcare services. However, Information and Communication Technology (ICT) provides us with a convenient and useful means of overcoming distance and time constraints. ICT is integrated with biomedical science and technology in a way that offers a new high-quality medical service. As a result, rapid technological advancement is expected to play a pivotal role bringing about innovation in a wide range of medical service areas, such as medical management, testing, diagnosis, and treatment; offering new and improved healthcare services; and effecting dramatic changes in current medical services. The increase in aging population and chronic diseases has caused an increase in medical expenses. In response to the increasing demand for efficient healthcare services, a telehealth service based on ICT is being emphasized on a global level. Telehealth services have been implemented especially in pilot projects and system development and technological research. With the service about to be implemented in earnest, it is necessary to study its overall acceptance by consumers, which is expected to contribute to the development and activation of a variety of services. In this sense, the study aims at positively examining the structural relationship among the acceptance factors for telehealth services based on the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). Data were collected by showing audiovisual material on telehealth services to online panels and requesting them to respond to a structured questionnaire sheet, which is known as the information acceleration method. Among the 1,165 adult respondents, 608 valid samples were finally chosen, while the remaining were excluded because of incomplete answers or allotted time overrun. In order to test the reliability and validity of the assessment scale items, we carried out reliability and factor analyses, and in order to explore the causal relation among potential variables, we conducted a structural equation modeling analysis using AMOS 7.0 and SPSS 17.0. The research outcomes are as follows. First, service quality, innovativeness of medical technology, and social influence were shown to affect perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness of the telehealth service, which was statistically significant, and the two factors had a positive impact on willingness to accept the telehealth service. In addition, social influence had a direct, significant effect on intention to use, which is paralleled by the TAM used in previous research on technology acceptance. This shows that the research model proposed in the study effectively explains the acceptance of the telehealth service. Second, the research model reveals that information privacy concerns had a insignificant impact on perceived ease of use of the telehealth service. From this, it can be gathered that the concerns over information protection and security are reduced further due to advancements in information technology compared to the initial period in the information technology industry, and thus the improvement in quality of medical services appeared to ensure that information privacy concerns did not act as a prohibiting factor in the acceptance of the telehealth service. Thus, if other factors have an enormous impact on ease of use and usefulness, concerns over these results in the initial period of technology acceptance may become irrelevant. However, it is clear that users' information privacy concerns, as other studies have revealed, is a major factor affecting technology acceptance. Thus, caution must be exercised while interpreting the result, and further study is required on the issue. Numerous information technologies with outstanding performance and innovativeness often attract few consumers. A revised bill for those urgently in need of telehealth services is about to be approved in the national assembly. As telemedicine is implemented between doctors and patients, a wide range of systems that will improve the quality of healthcare services will be designed. In this sense, the study on the consumer acceptance of telehealth services is meaningful and offers strong academic evidence. Based on the implications, it can be expected to contribute to the activation of telehealth services. Further study is needed to assess the acceptance factors for telehealth services, such as motivation to remain healthy, health care involvement, knowledge on health, and control of health-related behavior, in order to develop unique services according to the categorization of customers based on health factors. In addition, further study may focus on various theoretical cognitive behavior models other than the TAM, such as the health belief model.

보건소(保健所)의 방사선과(放射線科) 업무(業務)에 관한 조사연구(調査硏究) (Survery on Business of the Departments of Radiology in Health Centers)

  • 최종학;전만진;허준;박성옥
    • 대한방사선기술학회지:방사선기술과학
    • /
    • 제8권2호
    • /
    • pp.21-28
    • /
    • 1985
  • We serveyed the actual condition of business of the departments of radiology of 45 health conters (except 3) in the area of Seoul, Kyungki and Inchon from March, 1984 to November, 1984. The results are summarized as follows : 1. T.O. of the radiologic technologist is three persons in each health center of Seoul area, and one person in each one of Kyungki and Inchon area. P.O. is 2-5 persons in Seoul area, 1-2 persons in Kyungki or Inchon area. 2. The number of all the radiologic technologists employed now is 75 persons, and among all of them, when analized by position class 7th is 54.7%, class 8th 28.0%, class 9th is 13.3%, and class 6th is 2.7%, and by sex, female is 68.0%, male is 32.0%, by educational background, for the most part, junior college graduates come to 73.3%, by age group 60% of them is in their twenties, 16.0% is in their thirties and forties, 8.0% is in their fifties, and by career after certificate 60% have the career of 1-5 years, 13.3% have the one of 6-7 years or mor than 21 years, and 6.7% have the one of 11-15 years of 16-20 years. 3. All the diagnostic x-ray equipment being kept is 62, and among them flxing equipment is 71.0%, portable equipment is 29.0% and by rating of X-ray equipment, maximum tube current 100 mA is 46.8%, maximum KV 100KVP is 72.6%, the most part. 4. Photofluorographic camera and hood are equipped in every health center. While, as to the radiographic cassettes, $14{\times}14"$ cassetts are equipped in every health center, but cassettes of other sizes are in half of them. 5. Bucky's table is equipped in 11.9% health centers, the automatic processor is in 21.4%, the photofluorographic film changer is 9.5%, the grid is 73.8%, the protective apron is in 88.1%, and the protective glove is in 57.1% health centers. 6. The number of the people who got the x-ray examination for one year (by the year 1989) is the most, 1,000-6,000 in direct radiography of the chest, or 15,0001-45,000 in the health centers of Seoul area, 5,000-20,000 in Kyungki and Inchon area in photofluorography of the chest. Moreover, other radiographies are being taken extremely limitedly in all health centers. 7. In processing types of x-ray film, automatic processing is used in 9 health centers (21.4%), manual tank processing is in 30 (71.4%), and manual tray processing in 3 (7.2%). 8. As for collimation of x-ray exposure field, "continual using restricted by a subject size" has the most part, 78.6% "restricted using at every radiography" has 19%, and the case of "never considered" has 2.4% response. 9. As for the dosimeter used for radiation control, film badge (35.7%) and pocket dosimeter (26.2%) are used, and in 38.1% health centers the dosimeter is not equipped at all. Consideration of the previous radiation exposure is being done in only one health center. 10. Reading of radiographs is mainly depended on the radiologists electively (45.2%) or on the genral practitioners(45.2%).

  • PDF

한국인의 흡연습관에 따른 폐암발생의 비교위험도 (Relative Risk for Lung Cancer According to Smoking Habits in Koreans)

  • 신경철;류헌모;박혜정;문영철;정진홍;이관호
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
    • /
    • 제48권3호
    • /
    • pp.331-338
    • /
    • 2000
  • 연구배경 : 우리 나라의 경우 청소년들과 여성들의 흡연이 크게 증가하고, 담배를 피우기 시작하는 나이 역시 계속 낮아지고 있어 30-40년 후에도 우리 나라의 폐암발생률은 계속 증가할 것으로 추측하고 있다. 저자들은 우리 나라 폐암환자의 흡연습관을 분석하여 폐암발생과 관계 있는 흡연요소를 알아보고, 이를 폐암발생과 예방에 대한 기본자료로 이용하고자 본 연구를 시행하였다. 방 법 : 본 연구는 환자-대조군 연구로 1995년 11월부터 1996년 7월까지 영남대학교 부속병원 내과를 방문하여 폐기능 검사를 받은 환자들을 대상으로 흡연력 및 흡연량, 흡연습관 등에 관한 정보가 기록된 설문지를 이용하여 직접면담을 통하여 설문조사를 시행하였다. 폐암발생에 대한 각 흡연습관의 상대위험도는 Mantel Haenszel의 방법을 이용하여 구하였다. 결 과 : 습관적으로 담배를 피우기 시작한 나이는 22.5세, 일일 흡연량은 1.2갑, 흡연기간은 40년, 그리고 담배연령은 47 갑 년이었다. 습관적으로 흡연을 시작한 나이가 어릴수록, 흡연기간 및 담배연령, 그리고 일일흡연량이 많을수록 폐암발생의 교차비는 높았다. 금연여부에 따른 교차비의 차이도 의미 있었다. 연기를 깊게 흡입하는 경우 폐암발생의 교차비가 약간 증가하는 경향이 있었으나, 한번 피울 때 피운 담배의 길이와는 뚜렷한 관계가 없었다. 16년 이상 필터 없는 담배를 피운 경우 교차비가 증가하였다. 결 론 : 폐암발생에 영향을 미치는 중요한 흡연과 관계된 요인은 흡연기간 및 담배연령, 일일 흡연량, 습관적으로 담배를 피우기 시작한 나이, 필터 없는 담배를 피운 기간, 그리고 금연여부 등이었다. 그러나 이에 대한 정확한 결론은 더 많은 흡연정보를 포함하는 전향적인 연구가 도움이 될 것으로 생각한다.

  • PDF

빅데이터 시대의 개인정보 과잉이 사용자 저항에 미치는 영향 (Personal Information Overload and User Resistance in the Big Data Age)

  • 이환수;임동원;조항정
    • 지능정보연구
    • /
    • 제19권1호
    • /
    • pp.125-139
    • /
    • 2013
  • 최근 주목 받기 시작한 빅데이터 기술은 대량의 개인 정보에 대한 접근, 수집, 저장을 용이하게 할 뿐만 아니라 개인의 원하지 않는 민감한 정보까지 분석할 수 있게 한다. 이러한 기술이나 서비스를 이용하는 사람들은 어느 정도의 프라이버시 염려를 가지고 있으며, 이것은 해당 기술의 사용을 저해하는 요인으로 작용할 수 있다. 대표적 예로 소셜 네트워크 서비스의 경우, 다양한 이점이 존재하는 서비스이지만, 사용자들은 자신이 올린 수많은 개인 정보로 인해 오히려 프라이버시 침해 위험에 노출될 수 있다. 온라인 상에서 자신이 생성하거나 공개한 정보일 경우에도 이러한 정보가 의도하지 않은 방향으로 활용되거나 제3자를 의해 악용되면서 프라이버시 문제를 일으킬 수 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 사용자들이 이러한 환경에서 인지할 수 있는 개인정보의 과잉이 프라이버시 위험과 염려에 어떠한 영향을 주는지를 살펴보고, 사용자 저항과 어떠한 관계가 있는지 분석한다. 데이터 분석을 위해 설문과 구조방정식 방법론을 활용했다. 연구결과는 소셜 네트워크 상의 개인정보 과잉 현상은 사용자들의 프라이버시 위험 인식에 영향을 주어 개인의 프라이버시 염려 수준을 증가 시키는 요인으로 작용할 수 있음을 보여준다.

안동시 저수지에서의 대량 어류 폐사에 대한 원인과 대책에 관한 연구 (Study on Causes and Countermeasures for the Mass Death of Fish in Reservoirs in Andong-si)

  • 배수호;황선진;김연정;정철호;김성윤;유건상
    • 한국환경농학회지
    • /
    • 제42권1호
    • /
    • pp.52-62
    • /
    • 2023
  • This study focused on determining the specific causes and prevention methods of mass fish deaths occurred in five reservoirs (Gagugi, Neupgokgi, Danggokgi, Sagokji, and Hangokji) in Andong-si. For this purpose, a survey of agricultural land and livestock in the upper part of the reservoirs and analysis of water quality in the reservoir irrespective of whether it rains or not were conducted. We attempted to examine the changes in dissolved oxygen (DO) in the surface and bottom layers of reservoirs and changes in DO depending on the amount of livestock compost and time. Based on the above investigations, treatment plans were established to efficiently control the inflow of contaminated water into reservoirs. The rainfall and farmland areas in the upper part of the reservoir were investigated using Google and aviation data provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport. The current status of livestock farms distributed around the reservoirs was also examined because compost from these farms can flow into the reservoir when it rains. Various water quality parameters, such as phosphate phosphorus (PO4-P) and ammonium nitrogen (NH3-N), were analyzed and compared for each reservoir during the rainy season. Changes in the DO concentration and electrical conductivity (EC) were also observed at the inlet of the reservoir during raining using an automated instrument. In addition, DO was measured until the concentration reached 0 ppm in 10 min by adding livestock compost at various concentrations (0.05%, 0.1%, 0.3%, and 0.5% by wt.), where the concentration of the livestock compost represents the relative weight of rainwater. The DO concentration in the surface layer of reservoirs was 3.7 to 5.3 ppm, which is sufficient for fish survival. However, the fish could not survive at the bottom layer with DO concentration of 0.0-2.1 ppm. When the livestock compost was 0.3%, DO required 10-19 h to reach 0 ppm. Considering these results, it was confirmed that the DO in the bottom layer of the reservoir could easily change to an anaerobic state within 24 h when the livestock compost in the rainwater exceeds 0.3%. The results show that the direct cause of fish mortality is the inflow of excessive livestock compost into reservoirs during the first rainfall in spring. All the surveyed reservoirs had relatively good topographical features for the inflow of compost generated from livestock farms. This keeps the bottom layer of the reservoir free of oxygen. Therefore, to prevent fish death due to insufficient DO in the reservoir, measures should be undertaken to limit the amount of livestock compost flowing into the reservoir within 0.3%, which has been experimentally determined. As a basic countermeasure, minerals such as limestone, dolomite, and magnesia containing calcium and magnesium should be added to the compost of livestock farms around the reservoir. These minerals have excellent pollutant removal capabilities when sprayed onto the compost. In addition, measures should be taken to prevent fish death according to the characteristics of each reservoir.

한국전쟁의 교훈과 대비 -병력수(兵力數) 및 부대수(部隊數)를 중심으로- (The lesson From Korean War)

  • 윤일영
    • 안보군사학연구
    • /
    • 통권8호
    • /
    • pp.49-168
    • /
    • 2010
  • Just before the Korean War, the total number of the North Korean troops was 198,380, while that of the ROK(Republic of Korea) army troops 105,752. That is, the total number of the ROK army troops at that time was 53.3% of the total number of the North Korean army. As of December 2008, the total number of the North Korean troops is estimated to be 1,190,000, while that of the ROK troops is 655,000, so the ROK army maintains 55.04% of the total number of the North Korean troops. If the ROK army continues to reduce its troops according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the total number of its troops will be 517,000 m 2020. If North Korea maintains the current status(l,190,000 troops), the number of the ROK troops will be 43.4% of the North Korean army. In terms of units, just before the Korean War, the number of the ROK army divisions and regiments was 80% and 44.8% of North Korean army. As of December 2008, North Korea maintains 86 divisions and 69 regiments. Compared to the North Korean army, the ROK army maintains 46 Divisions (53.4% of North Korean army) and 15 regiments (21.3% of North Korean army). If the ROK army continue to reduce the military units according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of ROK army divisions will be 28(13 Active Division, 4 Mobilization Divisions and 11 Local Reserve Divisions), while that of the North Korean army will be 86 in 2020. In that case, the number of divisions of the ROK army will be 32.5% of North Korean army. During the Korean war, North Korea suddenly invaded the Republic of Korea and occupied its capital 3 days after the war began. At that time, the ROK army maintained 80% of army divisions, compared to the North Korean army. The lesson to be learned from this is that, if the ROK army is forced to disperse its divisions because of the simultaneous invasion of North Korea and attack of guerrillas in home front areas, the Republic of Korea can be in a serious military danger, even though it maintains 80% of military divisions of North Korea. If the ROK army promotes the plans in [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of military units of the ROK army will be 32.5% of that of the North Korean army. This ratio is 2.4 times lower than that of the time when the Korean war began, and in this case, 90% of total military power should be placed in the DMZ area. If 90% of military power is placed in the DMZ area, few troops will be left for the defense of home front. In addition, if the ROK army continues to reduce the troops, it can allow North Korea to have asymmetrical superiority in military force and it will eventually exert negative influence on the stability and peace of the Korean peninsular. On the other hand, it should be reminded that, during the Korean War, the Republic of Korea was attacked by North Korea, though it kept 53.3% of troops, compared to North Korea. It should also be reminded that, as of 2008, the ROK army is defending its territory with the troops 55.04% of North Korea. Moreover, the national defense is assisted by 25,120 troops of the US Forces in Korea. In case the total number of the ROK troops falls below 43.4% of the North Korean army, it may cause social unrest about the national security and may lead North Korea's misjudgement. Besides, according to Lanchester strategy, the party with weaker military power (60% compared to the party with stronger military power) has the 4.1% of winning possibility. Therefore, if we consider the fact that the total number of the ROK army troops is 55.04% of that of the North Korean army, the winning possibility of the ROK army is not higher than 4.1%. If the total number of ROK troops is reduced to 43.4% of that of North Korea, the winning possibility will be lower and the military operations will be in critically difficult situation. [Military Reform Plan 2020] rums at the reduction of troops and units of the ground forces under the policy of 'select few'. However, the problem is that the financial support to achieve this goal is not secured. Therefore, the promotion of [Military Reform Plan 2020] may cause the weakening of military defence power in 2020. Some advanced countries such as Japan, UK, Germany, and France have promoted the policy of 'select few'. However, what is to be noted is that the national security situation of those countries is much different from that of Korea. With the collapse of the Soviet Unions and European communist countries, the military threat of those European advanced countries has almost disappeared. In addition, the threats those advanced countries are facing are not wars in national level, but terrorism in international level. To cope with the threats like terrorism, large scaled army trops would not be necessary. So those advanced European countries can promote the policy of 'select few'. In line with this, those European countries put their focuses on the development of military sections that deal with non-military operations and protection from unspecified enemies. That is, those countries are promoting the policy of 'select few', because they found that the policy is suitable for their national security environment. Moreover, since they are pursuing common interest under the European Union(EU) and they can form an allied force under NATO, it is natural that they are pursing the 'select few' policy. At present, NATO maintains the larger number of troops(2,446,000) than Russia(l,027,000) to prepare for the potential threat of Russia. The situation of japan is also much different from that of Korea. As a country composed of islands, its prime military focus is put on the maritime defense. Accordingly, the development of ground force is given secondary focus. The japanese government promotes the policy to develop technology-concentrated small size navy and air-forces, instead of maintaining large-scaled ground force. In addition, because of the 'Peace Constitution' that was enacted just after the end of World War II, japan cannot maintain troops more than 240,000. With the limited number of troops (240,000), japan has no choice but to promote the policy of 'select few'. However, the situation of Korea is much different from the situations of those countries. The Republic of Korea is facing the threat of the North Korean Army that aims at keeping a large-scale military force. In addition, the countries surrounding Korea are also super powers containing strong military forces. Therefore, to cope with the actual threat of present and unspecified threat of future, the importance of maintaining a carefully calculated large-scale military force cannot be denied. Furthermore, when considering the fact that Korea is in a peninsular, the Republic of Korea must take it into consideration the tradition of continental countries' to maintain large-scale military powers. Since the Korean War, the ROK army has developed the technology-force combined military system, maintaining proper number of troops and units and pursuing 'select few' policy at the same time. This has been promoted with the consideration of military situation in the Koran peninsular and the cooperation of ROK-US combined forces. This kind of unique military system that cannot be found in other countries can be said to be an insightful one for the preparation for the actual threat of North Korea and the conflicts between continental countries and maritime countries. In addition, this kind of technology-force combined military system has enabled us to keep peace in Korea. Therefore, it would be desirable to maintain this technology-force combined military system until the reunification of the Korean peninsular. Furthermore, it is to be pointed out that blindly following the 'select few' policy of advanced countries is not a good option, because it is ignoring the military strategic situation of the Korean peninsular. If the Republic of Korea pursues the reduction of troops and units radically without consideration of the threat of North Korea and surrounding countries, it could be a significant strategic mistake. In addition, the ROK army should keep an eye on the fact the European advanced countries and Japan that are not facing direct military threats are spending more defense expenditures than Korea. If the ROK army reduces military power without proper alternatives, it would exert a negative effect on the stable economic development of Korea and peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsular. Therefore, the desirable option would be to focus on the development of quality of forces, maintaining proper size and number of troops and units under the technology-force combined military system. The tableau above shows that the advanced countries like the UK, Germany, Italy, and Austria spend more defense expenditure per person than the Republic of Korea, although they do not face actual military threats, and that they keep achieving better economic progress than the countries that spend less defense expenditure. Therefore, it would be necessary to adopt the merits of the defense systems of those advanced countries. As we have examined, it would be desirable to maintain the current size and number of troops and units, to promote 'select few' policy with increased defense expenditure, and to strengthen the technology-force combined military system. On the basis of firm national security, the Republic of Korea can develop efficient policies for reunification and prosperity, and jump into the status of advanced countries. Therefore, the plans to reduce troops and units in [Military Reform Plan 2020] should be reexamined. If it is difficult for the ROK army to maintain its size of 655,000 troops because of low birth rate, the plans to establish the prompt mobilization force or to adopt drafting system should be considered for the maintenance of proper number of troops and units. From now on, the Republic of Korean government should develop plans to keep peace as well as to prepare unexpected changes in the Korean peninsular. For the achievement of these missions, some options can be considered. The first one is to maintain the same size of military troops and units as North Korea. The second one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea in terms of military force index. The third one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea, with the combination of the prompt mobilization force and the troops in active service under the system of technology-force combined military system. At present, it would be not possible for the ROK army to maintain such a large-size military force as North Korea (1,190,000 troops and 86 units). So it would be rational to maintain almost the same level of military force as North Korea with the combination of the troops on the active list and the prompt mobilization forces. In other words, with the combination of the troops in active service (60%) and the prompt mobilization force (40%), the ROK army should develop the strategies to harmonize technology and forces. The Korean government should also be prepared for the strategic flexibility of USFK, the possibility of American policy change about the location of foreign army, radical unexpected changes in North Korea, the emergence of potential threat, surrounding countries' demand for Korean force for the maintenance of regional stability, and demand for international cooperation against terrorism. For this, it is necessary to develop new approaches toward the proper number and size of troops and units. For instance, to prepare for radical unexpected political or military changes in North Korea, the Republic of Korea should have plans to protect a large number of refugees, to control arms and people, to maintain social security, and to keep orders in North Korea. From the experiences of other countries, it is estimated that 115,000 to 230,000 troops, plus ten thousands of police are required to stabilize the North Korean society, in the case radical unexpected military or political change happens in North Korea. In addition, if the Republic of Korea should perform the release of hostages, control of mass destruction weapons, and suppress the internal wars in North Korea, it should send 460,000 troops to North Korea. Moreover, if the Republic of Korea wants to stop the attack of North Korea and flow of refugees in DMZ area, at least 600,000 troops would be required. In sum, even if the ROK army maintains 600,000 troops, it may need additional 460,000 troops to prepare for unexpected radical changes in North Korea. For this, it is necessary to establish the prompt mobilization force whose size and number are almost the same as the troops in active service. In case the ROK army keeps 650,000 troops, the proper number of the prompt mobilization force would be 460,000 to 500,000.

  • PDF