• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• 제4권5호
• /
• pp.527-555
• /
• 2013

This paper proposes probabilistic models for estimating the seismic demands on reinforced concrete (RC) bridges with base isolation. The models consider the shear and deformation demands on the bridge columns and the deformation demand on the isolation devices. An experimental design is used to generate a population of bridges based on the AASHTO LRFD Bridge Design Specifications (AASHTO 2007) and the Caltrans' Seismic Design Criteria (Caltrans 1999). Ground motion records are used for time history analysis of each bridge to develop probabilistic models that are practical and are able to account for the uncertainties and biases in the current, common deterministic model. As application of the developed probabilistic models, a simple method is provided to determine the fragility of bridges. This work facilitates the reliability-based design for this type of bridges and contributes to the transition from limit state design to performance-based design.

• Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• 제14권2호
• /
• pp.71-78
• /
• 2009

A review of stormwater quantity and quality in the urban environment is presented. The review is presented in three parts. The first part reviews the mathematical methods for stormwater quantity and has been undertaken by examining a number of stormwater models that are in current use. The important feature of models, their applications, and management has been discussed. Different types of stormwater management models are presented in the literatures. Generally, all the models are simplified as conceptual or empirical depending on whether the model is based on physical laws or not. In both cases if any of the variables in the model are regarded as random variables having a probability distribution, then the model is stochastic model. Otherwise the model is deterministic (based on process descriptions). The analytical techniques are presented in this paper.

• Computers and Concrete
• /
• 제2권4호
• /
• pp.325-343
• /
• 2005

Chloride ingress is a common cause of deterioration of reinforced concrete located in coastal zone. Modeling the chloride ingress is an important basis for designing reinforced concrete structures and for assessing the reliability of an existing structure. The modeling is also needed for predicting the deterioration of a reinforced structure. The existing deterministic solution for prediction model of corrosion initiation cannot reflect uncertainties which input variables have. This paper presents an approach to the fuzzy arithmetic based modeling of the chloride-induced corrosion of reinforcement in concrete structures that takes into account the uncertainties in the physical models of chloride penetration into concrete and corrosion of steel reinforcement, as well as the uncertainties in the governing parameters, including concrete diffusivity, concrete cover depth, surface chloride concentration and critical chloride level for corrosion initiation. There are a lot of prediction model for predicting the time of reinforcement corrosion of structures exposed to chloride-induced corrosion environment. In this work, RILEM model formula and Crank's solution of Fick's second law of diffusion is used. The parameters of the models are regarded as fuzzy numbers with proper membership function adapted to statistical data of the governing parameters instead of random variables of probabilistic modeling of Monte Carlo Simulation and the fuzziness of the time to corrosion initiation is determined by the fuzzy arithmetic of interval arithmetic and extension principle. An analysis is implemented by comparing deterministic calculation with fuzzy arithmetic for above two prediction models.

• 한국경영과학회지
• /
• 제24권3호
• /
• pp.109-123
• /
• 1999

Fleet sizing and empty equipment redistribution are two of the most critical problems in managing a fleet of equipment over a transportation network. Where the demand pattern followed the compound Poisson process(CPP) which can be generated one or more at a time under homogeneous Poisson process(HPP), this paper presented a mathematical model to determine control parameters of a decentralized distribution policy and fleet size in case of the pure hub-and-spoke system, a popular form of a logistics system. and validated this model by simulation. That is, where the number of demanded equipments followed geometric and binomial distributions, respectively, cost models on the pure hub-and-spoke logistics system with deterministic trans-portation times, which could be solved analytically, were established and analyzed. We also compared the deterministic case with stochastic one that the transportation time follows some probability distributions.

• 한국연소학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국연소학회 2006년도 제32회 KOSCO SYMPOSIUM 논문집
• /
• pp.167-171
• /
• 2006

The previous models for thermal behavior in the melting furnace were deterministic, composed of such a form that if the initial input conditions are determined, the results would have been come out by using the basic heat equilibrium equations. But making the experiment by trusting the analysis results, the melted slag is fortuitously set often, because temperature variation of the melted slag in the reaction process is not point function but path function. So in this study, a transient model was developed and verified by comparing with the experimental results.

• 대한안전경영과학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한안전경영과학회 2004년도 추계학술대회
• /
• pp.115-123
• /
• 2004

Replacement problems can be classed as either deterministic of stochastic. Deterministic problems are those in which the timing and the outcome of the replacement action are assumed to be known with certainty. Before proceeding with development of replacement models it is important to note that preventive replacement actions, that is, ones taken before equipment reaches a failed state, require two necessary conditions: (1) The total cost of the replacement must be greater after failure than before. (2) The failure rate of the equipment must be increasing. Equipment is subject to failure. On failure, one of two possible actions can be taken : repair or complete replacement of the failed equipment. In this paper, we proposed optimal overhaul, repair, replacement maintenance model with two-state.

• 대한산업공학회지
• /
• 제24권4호
• /
• pp.485-492
• /
• 1998

Most forecasting models often fail to produce appropriate forecasts because we build a model based on the assumption of the data being generated from the only one stochastic process. However, in many real problems, the time series data are generated from one stochastic process for a while and then abruptly undergo certain structural changes. In this paper, we assume the basic underlying process is the simple state-space model with random level and deterministic drift but interrupted by three types of exogenous shocks: level shift, drift change, outlier. A Bayesian procedure to detect, estimate and adapt to the structural changes is developed and compared with simple, double and adaptive exponential smoothing using simulated data and the U.S. leading composite index.

• 대한교통학회지
• /
• 제23권1호
• /
• pp.67-80
• /
• 2005

신호교차로의 용량 및 서비스수준을 분석하는데 지체를 기본적인 평가척도로 이용하고 있다. 지금까지 연구되어진 다양한 지체모형은 비포화와 포화상태를 고려한 교통조건하에서 교차로 신혼운영전략 및 기하구조 개선에 중요한 척도로 이용되고 있다. 본 연구는 대기행렬모형, 충격파모형, 정상상태 확률적 모형, 시간종속 확률적 모형, 거시적 및 미시적 시뮬레이션 모형에 대한 지체를 비교 ${\cdot}$분석하였다. 분석결과를 보면, v/c ratio가 증가함에 딸 지체는 단조 증가형태를 띠고 있다. 비포화상태에서는 결정적모형과 확률적 모형의 지체 모두 비슷한 값으로 나타났으며, 포화상태에서는 1994 HCM모형을 제외하고는 모두 유사한 곡선의 패턴을 유지하면서 지체값은 어느정도 차이를 보이고 있다. 전통적인 대기행렬모형과 충격파모형은 이미 이론적으로 검증되었듯이 동일한 지체값이 나왔다. 정상상태 확률적 모형인 webster모형은 v/c-0.8이하에서는 2001 KHCM과 거의 동일한 값을 나타냈으며, v/c=1.0에 가까울수록 무한대로 증가하는 경향을 보이고 있다. 시간종속 확률적 모형은 결정적 포화상태모형을 점근선으로 하여 지체를 산정하기 때문에 점진적으로 단조증가 형태를 띠로 있다. 거시결정적 시뮬레이션인 TRANSYT-7F의 두 모형인 link-wise simulation과 step-wise simulation은 v/c=1.0까지는 2001 KHCM모형과 거의 동일한 값을 나타냈으며, v/c=1.0 이상에서는 step-wise simulation이 상대적으로 높게 나타났다. 미시확률적인 시뮬레이션인 NETSIM모형은 개별차량간의 상호작용과 교통량 변화에 따른 미시적인 운전자 형태를 모사하기 때문에 다른 모형에 비해 낮게 나타났다. 또한 TRANSYST-7F와 NETSIM을 비교하였을 때 지체값의 차이가 크게 나타난 것은 차량 형태 알고리즘이 다르기 때문에 이를 비교한다는 것은 큰 의미가 없을 것으로 판단된다.

• 상하수도학회지
• /
• 제10권2호
• /
• pp.88-103
• /
• 1996

The objective of this study is to develop stochastic and deterministic models which could be used to synthesize water application time series. Adaptive models using mulitivariate ARIMA(Transfer Function Model) are developed for daily urban water use forecasting. The model considers several variables on which water demands is dependent. The dynamic response of water demands to several factors(e.g. weekday, average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, humidity, cloudiness, rainfall) are characterized in the model by transfer functions. Daily water use data of Kumi city in 1992 are employed for model parameter estimation. Meteorological data of Seonsan station are utilized to input variables because Kumi has no records about the meteorological factor data.To determine the main factors influencing water use, autocorrelogram and cross correlogram analysis are performed. Through the identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic checking of tentative model, final transfer function models by each month are established. The simulation output by transfer function models are compared to a historical data and shows the good agreement.

• 산업기술연구
• /
• 제24권A호
• /
• pp.205-214
• /
• 2004

Static reliability models are introduced to analyze the armor stability of rubble-mound breakwaters. Contrasted to the deterministic model, reliability models can estimate the probability of failure directly and calculate the influence of each design variables quantitatively. Thus, it can be possible to design armor units of the rubble-mound breakwaters rationally. In this study FMA(First-order Mean-value Approach), FDA(First-order Design-value Approach) and AFDA(Approximate Full Distribution Approach) of Level II approach of static reliability methods are used to analyze the armor stability of rubble mound breakwaters. The limitations and applications of each approach are studied straight-forwardly.