• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2003.10a
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• pp.495-502
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• 2003

This study proposed the Probability Density Function (PDF) interpolation technique to evaluate the seismic fragility curves as a function of the return period. Seismic fragility curves have been developed as a function of seismic intensities such as peak ground acceleration, peak pound velocity, and pseudo-velocity spectrum. The return period of design earthquakes, however, can be more useful among those seismic intensity measurements, because the seismic hazard curves are generally represented with a return period of design earthquakes and the seismic design codes also require to consider the return period of design earthquake spectrum for a specific site. In this respect the PDF interpolation technique is proposed to evaluate the seismic fragility curves as a function of return period. Seismic fragility curves based on the return period are compared with ones based on the peak ground acceleration for the bridge model.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.1-8
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• 2024

This paper employs stochastic processing techniques to analyze explosion risks in plant facilities based on explosion return periods. Release probability is calculated using data from the Health and Safety Executive (HSE), along with annual leakage frequency per plant provided by DNV. Ignition probability, derived from various researchers' findings, is then considered to calculate the explosion return period based on the release quantity. The explosion risk is assessed by examining the volume, radius, and blast load of the vapor cloud, taking into account the calculated explosion return period. The reference distance for the design blast load model is determined by comparing and analyzing the vapor cloud radius according to the return period, historical vapor cloud explosion cases, and blast-resistant design guidelines. Utilizing the multi-energy method, the blast load range corresponding to the explosion return period is presented. The proposed return period serves as a standard for the design blast load model, established through a comparative analysis of vapor cloud explosion cases and blast-resistant design guidelines. The outcomes of this study contribute to the development of a performance-based blast-resistant design framework for plant facilities.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.7 no.6
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• pp.1007-1019
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• 2015

The determination of the required seawall height is usually based on the combination of wind speed (or wave height) and still water level according to a specified return period, e.g., 50-year return period wind speed and 50-year return period still water level. In reality, the two variables are be partially correlated. This may be lead to over-design (costs) of seawall structures. The above-mentioned return period for the design of a seawall depends on economy, society and natural environment in the region. This means a specified risk level of overtopping or damage of a seawall structure is usually allowed. The aim of this paper is to present a conditional risk probability-based seawall height design method which incorporates the correlation of the two variables. For purposes of demonstration, the wind speeds and water levels collected from Jiangsu of China are analyzed. The results show this method can improve seawall height design accuracy.

• Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.29-40
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• 2018

Strength design wind loads for the wind resistance design of structures shall be evaluated by the product of wind loads calculated based on the basic wind speed with 100 years return period and the wind load factor 1.3 specified in the provisions of load combinations in Korean Building Code (KBC) 2016. It may be sure that the wind load factor 1.3 in KBC(2016) had not been determined by probabilistic method or empirical method using meteorological wind speed data in Korea. In this paper, wind load factors were evaluated by probabilistic method and empirical method. The annual maximum 10 minutes mean wind speed data at 69 meteorological stations during past 40 years from 1973 to 2012 were selected for this evaluation. From the comparison of the results of those two method, it can be found that the mean values of wind load factors calculated both probability based method and empirical based method were similar at all meteorological stations. When target level of reliability index is set up 2.5, the mean value of wind load factors for all regions should be presented about 1.35. When target level of reliability index is set up 3.0, wind load factor should be presented about 1.46. By using the relationship between importance factor(conversion factor for return period) and wind load factor, the return periods for strength design were estimated and expected wind speeds of all regions accounting for strength design were proposed. It can be found that return period to estimate wind loads for strength design should be 500 years and 800 years in according to target level of reliability index 2.5 and 3.0, respectively. The 500 years basic wind speed map for strength design was suggested and it can be used with a wind load factor 1.0.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.49 no.3
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• pp.11-20
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• 2007

Estimation of crop consumptive use is a key term of agricultural water resource systems design and operation. The 10-year return period drought has special aspects as a reference period in design process of irrigation systems in terms of agricultural water demand analysis so that crop evapotranspiration (ETc) about the return period also has to be analyzed to assist understanding of crop water requirement of paddy rice. In this study, The ETc of 10-year return period drought was computed using frequency analysis by 54 meteorological stations. To find an optimal probability distribution, 8 types of probability distribution function were tested by three the goodness of fit tests including ${\chi}^2$(Chi-Square), K-S (Kolmogorov-Smirnov) and PPCC (Probability Plot Correlation Coefficient). Optimal probability distribution function was selected the 2-parameter Log-Normal (LN2) distribution function among 8 distribution functions. Using the two selected distribution functions, the ETc of 10-year return period drought was estimated for 54 meteorological stations and compared with prior study results suggested by other researchers.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.271-276
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• 2009

Under current design standard, sewers are designed to drain stormwater generated up to 10 year return period of storms. This implies sewer flooding could occur from rainfall exceeding a 10 year return period. 5, 10, 20 and 30 year return period of storm intensities were calculated for 22 locations (cities) of meterological stations over the nation and compared to the recorded rainfall intensities for the last 30 years. The comparison resulted in the numbers of year maximum rainfall intensities exceeded each return period. Using the questionnaire survey for "the incidences of flooding since 1980" of the previous paper (Survey on sewerage operation/management planning for flooding (I)), the actual rainfall records on the date of flooding events were analyzed to demonstrate the number of flooding events caused by the exceedance of sewer capacity. For the last 30 years, more than 6 years of year maximum rainfall intensity (20%) were larger than the 10 year return period of storm in 4 cities of the 22 used for the first analysis. The number of rainfall records that exceeded the 10 year return period was 50 of the 260 actual flooding events investigated from the survey.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.235-242
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• 2022

Compared with buildings that have already been constructed, buildings under construction may be more vulnerable to such natural disasters as earthquakes because the concrete strength is not yet sufficient. Currently, Korean design standards present minimum performance targets for each seismic grade of buildings, but the seismic load for design is based on a return period of 2400 years. However, because the construction period of the building is much shorter than the period of use of the building, the application of the earthquake return period of 2400 years to buildings under construction may be excessive. Therefore, in this study, a construction stage model of buildings with 5, 15, 25, and 60 floors was created to analyze earthquake loads during construction of residential reinforced concrete (RC) buildings. The structural stability was confirmed by applying reduced seismic loads according to the return period. As a result, the structural stability was checked for an earthquake of the return period selected according to the construction period, and the earthquake return period that can secure structural safety according to the size of the building was confirmed.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.349-352
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• 2006

According to current bridge design code cable supported bridges are designed generally against 1000-year-return-period earthquake. Considering its importance, however, it may be desirable to design against 2400-year-return-period earthquake. But the seismic behavior of cable supported bridges under higher seismicity is not investigated fully. In this study, several cable supported bridges were analyzed under higher seismicity and then the response forces in prime members were compared with those analyzed under current design earthquake.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.38 no.6
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• pp.793-800
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• 2018

It is necessary to determine an optimal design frequency for establishing stable flood control against frequent flood disasters. Depending on the importance of river and regional characteristics, design return periods are suggested from at least 50 years up to 200 years for river design. However, due to the wide range of applications, it is not desirable to reflect the geographical and flood control characteristics of river. In this study, Bayes theory was applied to seven evaluation factors to determine the optimal design return period of rivers in Chungcheongnam-do; urbanization flooded area, watershed area, basin coefficient, slope, water system and stream order, range of backwater effect, abnormal rainfall occurrence frequency. The potential flood damage (PFD) capacity was estimated considering climate change and the appropriate design return period was determined by analyzing the capacity of each district. We compared the design return periods of 382 rivers in Chungcheongnam-do with the existing design return periods. The number of rivers that were upgraded from the existing return period were 65, which have relatively large flooding areas and have large PFDs. Whereas, the number of rivers that were downgraded were 169.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.69-78
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• 1986

This studies were established to find out the characteristics of frequency distributiom for the number of occurrence and magnitude, probable flood flows according to the return periods, design floods, and design frequency factors for the studying basins in relation to the risk levels which can be correlated with design return period and the life of structure in the non-annual exceedance series. Eight watersheds along Han, Geum, Nak Dong and Seom Jin river basin were selected as studying basins. The results were analyzed and summarized as follows. 1. Poisson distribution and Exponential distribution were tested as a good fitted distributions for the number of occurrence and magnitude for exceedance event, respectively,at selected watersheds along Han, Geum, Nak Dong and Seom Jin river basin. 2.Formulas for the probable flood flows and probable flood flows according to the return periods were derivated for the exponential distribution at the selected watersheds along Han, Geum, Nak Dong, and Seom Jin river basin. 3.Analysis for the risk of failure was connected return period with design life of structure in the non-annual exceedance series. 4.Empirical formulas for the design frequency factors were derivated from under the condition of the return periods identify with the life of structure in relation to the different risk levels in the non-annual exceedance series. 5.Design freguency factors were appeared to be increased in proportion to the return periods while those are in inverse proportion to the levels of the risk of failure. Numerical values for the design frequency factors for the non-annual exceedance series ware appeared generally higher than those of annual maximum series already published by the first report. 6. Design floods according to the different risk levels could be derivated by using of formulas of the design frequency factors for all studying watersheds in the nor-annual exceedance series.