• Title/Summary/Keyword: Design Flood Estimation

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A Study on the application of Critical Rainfall Duration for the Estimation of Design Flood (설계홍수량 산정에 따른 임계지속시간의 적용성에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, Seong Mo;Kang, In Joo;Lee, Eun Tae
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.119-126
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    • 2004
  • In recent, the critical rainfall duration concept is widely used but we do not have understandable criteria yet. However, the critical rainfall duration is usually calculated considering concentration time, runoff model using effective rainfall, and unit hydrograph for the estimation of design flood. This study is to derive the regression equations between the critical rainfall duration and hydrologic components such as the basin area, slope, length, CN, and so on. We use a GIS tool which is called the ArcView for the estimation of hydrologic components and the HEC-1 module which is provided in WMS model is used for the runoff computation. As the results, the basin area, basin slope, and basin length had a great influence on the estimations of peak runoff and critical rainfall duration. We also investigated the sensitivities for the peak runoff and critical duration of rainfall from the correlation analysis for the involved components in the runoff estimation.

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Analysis of Parameter Optimization Reflecting the Characteristics of Runoff in Small Mountain Catchment (소규모 산지 유역의 유출특성을 반영한 매개변수 최적화 분석)

  • Joungsung Lim;Hojin Lee
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.25 no.9
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    • pp.5-14
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    • 2024
  • In Korea, torrential rain frequency and intensity have surged over the past five years (2019-2023), breaking rainfall records. Due to insufficient observation facilities for rainfall and runoff data in small mountainous catchments, preparing for unexpected floods is challenging. This study examines the Bidogyo catchment in Goesan-gun, Chungcheongbuk-do, comparing design flood discharge calculated with optimized parameters versus standard guidelines. Using HEC-HMS and Q-GIS for model construction, five rainfall events were analyzed with data from the National Water Resources Management Information System. The time of concentration (Tc) and storage constant (K) were calculated using the Seokyeongdae formula and model optimization. Results showed that optimized parameters produced higher objective function values for flood events. The design flood discharge varied by -10.7% to 17.3% from the standard guidelines when using optimized parameters. Moreover, optimized parameters yielded flood discharges closer to observed values, highlighting limitations of the Seokyeongdae formula for all catchments. Further research aims to develop suitable parameter estimation methods for small mountainous catchments in Korea.

Characteristics of Bed Profile Fluctuation According to Before & After Removal of the Sediment Protection Weir using HEC-6 model (HEC-6모형을 이용한 방사보 철거 전후에 따른 하상변동 특성)

  • Ahn, Seung-Seop;Lee, Soo-Sik;Choi, Yun-Young;Lee, Jeung-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.1 no.3 s.3
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2001
  • In this study, the characteristics of river bed profile fluctuation are become possible to be used effectively in future estimation of Taehwa river general development plan through analysis and examination according to the effects of sediment protection weir located in the area of the estuary of Taehwa river's main channel using HEC-6 model. The flow conditions needed in analysis of the characteristics of river bed profile fluctuation refer the conditions of flow which secures 95 days in a year, flood flow, and design flood examined in the estimation of Taehwa river maintenance basic plan. First, in analysis result of river bed variation range, there is no significant variation in upstream section from Samho-gyo while there are the more active erosion and sedimentation as the more flow in downstream from Samho-gyo. Next, from the result of the capacity of sediment transfer, it is analyzed that sediment transfer capacity in the area of estuary of Taehwa river has no significant difference in before and after removal of the sediment protection weir when design flood flows while it is estimated that the more flow, the bigger sediment transfer capacity. Therefore, it is thought that the installation of a suitable hydraulic structure at the lowest point of Dong-chun tributary joins from the downstream of Taehwa river can be a good device to reduce the accumulation of sediments at the lowest point of Taehwa river considering the reduction plan of sediment inflow caused by removal of the sediment protection weir.

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Reliability Evaluation of Parameter Estimation Methods of Probability Density Function for Estimating Probability Rainfalls (확률강우량 추정을 위한 확률분포함수의 매개변수 추정법에 대한 신뢰성 평가)

  • Han, Jeong-Woo;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.143-151
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    • 2009
  • Extreme hydrologic events cause serious disaster, such as flood and drought. Many researchers have an effort to estimate design rainfalls or discharges. This study evaluated parameter estimation methods to estimate probability rainfalls with low uncertainty which will be used in design rainfalls. This study collected rainfall data from Incheon, Gangnueng, Gwangju, Busan, and Chupungryong gage station, and generated synthetic rainfall data using ARMA model. This study employed the maximum likelihood method and the Bayesian inference method for estimating parameters of the Gumbel and GEV distribution. Using a bootstrap resampling method, this study estimated the confidence intervals of estimated probability rainfalls. Based on the comparison of the confidence intervals, this study recommended a proper parameter estimation method for estimating probability rainfalls which have a low uncertainty.

Estimation of Future Design Flood Under Non-Stationarity for Wonpyeongcheon Watershed (비정상성을 고려한 원평천 유역의 미래 설계홍수량 산정)

  • Ryu, Jeong Hoon;Kang, Moon Seong;Park, Jihoon;Jun, Sang Min;Song, Jung Hun;Kim, Kyeung;Lee, Kyeong-Do
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.57 no.5
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    • pp.139-152
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    • 2015
  • Along with climate change, it is reported that the scale and frequency of extreme climate events show unstable tendency of increase. Thus, to comprehend the change characteristics of precipitation data, it is needed to consider non-stationary. The main objectives of this study were to estimate future design floods for Wonpyeongcheon watershed based on RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenario. Wonpyeongcheon located in the Keum River watershed was selected as the study area. Historical precipitation data of the past 35 years (1976~2010) were collected from the Jeonju meteorological station. Future precipitation data based on RCP4.5 were also obtained for the period of 2011~2100. Systematic bias between observed and simulated data were corrected using the quantile mapping (QM) method. The parameters for the bias-correction were estimated by non-parametric method. A non-stationary frequency analysis was conducted with moving average method which derives change characteristics of generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution parameters. Design floods for different durations and frequencies were estimated using rational formula. As the result, the GEV parameters (location and scale) showed an upward tendency indicating the increase of quantity and fluctuation of an extreme precipitation in the future. The probable rainfall and design flood based on non-stationarity showed higher values than those of stationarity assumption by 1.2%~54.9% and 3.6%~54.9%, respectively, thus empathizing the necessity of non-stationary frequency analysis. The study findings are expected to be used as a basis to analyze the impacts of climate change and to reconsider the future design criteria of Wonpyeongcheon watershed.

Estimation of Design Rainfall Based on Climate Change Scenario in Jeju Island (기후변화 시나리오를 고려한 제주도 확률강우량 산정)

  • Lee, Jun-Ho;Yang, Sung-Kee;Jung, Woo-Yul;Yang, Won-Seok
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.383-391
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    • 2015
  • As occurrence of gradually increasing extreme temperature events in Jeju Island, a hybrid downscaling technique that simultaneously applies by dynamical method and statistical method has implemented on design rainfall in order to reduce flood damages from severe storms and typhoons.As a result of computation, Case 1 shows a strong tendency to excessively compute rainfall, which is continuously increasing. While Case 2 showed similar trend as Case 1, low design rainfall has computed by rainfall in A1B scenario. Based on the design rainfall computation method mainly used in Preventive Disaster System through Pre-disaster Effect Examination System and Basic Plan for River of Jeju Island which are considering climatic change for selecting 50-year and 100-year frequencies. Case 3 selecting for Jeju rain gage station and Case 1 for Seogwipo rain gage station. The results were different for each rain gage station because of difference in rainfall characteristics according to recent climatic change, and the risk of currently known design rainfall can be increased in near future.

Comparison of the flow estimation methods through GIUH rainfall-runoff model for flood warning system on Banseong stream (반성천 홍수경보 시스템을 위한 GIUH기반 한계홍수량 산정기법 비교연구)

  • Seong, Kiyoung;Ahn, Yujin;Lee, Taesam
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.347-354
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    • 2021
  • In the past few years, various damages have occurred in the vicinity of rivers due to flooding. In order to alleviate such flood damage, structural and non-structural measures are being established, and one of the important non-structural measures is to establish a flood warning system. In general, in order to establish a flood warning system, the water level of the flood alarm reference point is set, the critical flow corresponding thereto is calculated, and the warning precipitation amount corresponding to the critical flow is calculated through the Geomorphological Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (GIUH) rainfall-runoff model. In particular, when calculating the critical flow, various studies have calculated the critical flow through the Manning formula. To compare the adequacy of this, in this study, the critical flow was calculated through the HEC-RAS model and compared with the value obtained from Manning's equation. As a result of the comparison, it was confirmed that the critical flow calculated by the Manning equation adopted excessive alarm precipitation values and lead a very high flow compared to the existing design precipitation. In contrast, the critical flow of HEC-RAS presented an appropriate alarm precipitation value and was found to be appropriate to the annual average alarm standard. From the results of this study, it seems more appropriate to calculate the critical flow through HEC-RAS, rather than through the existing Manning equation, in a situation where various river projects have been conducted resulting that most of the rivers have been surveyed.

Estimation of Superelevation in Mountainous River Bends (산지하천 만곡부의 편수위 산정)

  • Park, Sang Doeg;Lee, Seung Kyu;Shin, Seung Sook;Cho, Jaewoong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.12
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    • pp.1165-1176
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    • 2014
  • In a river bend the water surface is inclined by the centrifugal force toward the transverse section. If channel slope and flow rate increase, the gradient is rising generally. There are lots of the flood damage at the bends of mountain river because the flood water levels have exceeded frequently the levee levels which are added a free board to the design flood water level. Therefore the superelevation should be considered in designing the mountainous river bend. In present study it was proposed to estimate the superelevation at the bend of mountain river and the superelevation coefficient defined from multiplying the sub-factors. The values of the influence factors for the superelevation coefficient were suggested from analyzing the superelevation measured at the bends in Yangyangnamdae river and the hydraulic experiments in gravel-bed channel with a $90^{\circ}$ bend. The applicability of these methods to estimate the superelevation at the bends in mountain river was verified by the superelevation measured at the bend in Naerin river.

Computational Model for Flow in River Systems Including Storage Pockets with Side Weirs (횡월류형 강변저류지를 포함하는 하천수계에 대한 수리학적 계산모형)

  • Jun, Kyung-Soo;Kim, Jin-Soo;Kim, Won;Yoon, Byung-Man
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.139-151
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    • 2010
  • A quasi-two-dimensional unsteady flow model was developed for simulating the flow in a river system including artificial storage pockets with side weirs. It is a multiply-connected network which combines channels and storage pockets. The channel flow is described by the one-dimensional Saint Venant equations, and the weir overflow flow by the cell continuity and stage-discharge relations. The model was applied to the Imjin river system including six artificial storage pockets. Design flood peak reduction due to storage pockets is not sensitive to the side weir discharge coefficient. Storage pockets downstream are less effective than upstream ones in reducing peak stage as the backwater effect becomes more dominant. Simulated flood control effect is highly sensitive to the roughness coefficient. The uncertainty due to the roughness coefficient increases as the weir crest elevation gets higher. Because the best design alternative varies with the roughness coefficient, proper estimation of it is essential to the design of side weirs. Moreover, uncertainty of the estimation needs to be considered in the design process.

Bayesian parameter estimation of Clark unit hydrograph using multiple rainfall-runoff data (다중 강우유출자료를 이용한 Clark 단위도의 Bayesian 매개변수 추정)

  • Kim, Jin-Young;Kwon, Duk-Soon;Bae, Deg-Hyo;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.5
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    • pp.383-393
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    • 2020
  • The main objective of this study is to provide a robust model for estimating parameters of the Clark unit hydrograph (UH) using the observed rainfall-runoff data in the Soyangang dam basin. In general, HEC-1 and HEC-HMS models, developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center, have been widely used to optimize the parameters in Korea. However, these models are heavily reliant on the objective function and sample size during the optimization process. Moreover, the optimization process is carried out on the basis of single rainfall-runoff data, and the process is repeated for other events. Their averaged values over different parameter sets are usually used for practical purposes, leading to difficulties in the accurate simulation of discharge. In this sense, this paper proposed a hierarchical Bayesian model for estimating parameters of the Clark UH model. The proposed model clearly showed better performance in terms of Bayesian inference criterion (BIC). Furthermore, the result of this study reveals that the proposed model can also be applied to different hydrologic fields such as dam design and design flood estimation, including parameter estimation for the probable maximum flood (PMF).