• East Asian mathematical journal
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• 제35권3호
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• pp.305-318
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• 2019

Over the past decades, the Lee-Carter model [1] has attracted much attention from various demography-related fields in order to project the future mortality rates. In the Lee-Carter model, the speed of mortality improvement is stochastically modeled by the so-called mortality index and is used to forecast the future mortality rates based on the time series analysis. However, the modeling is applied to long time series and thus an important structural change might exist, leading to potentially large long-term forecasting errors. Therefore, in this paper, we are interested in detecting the structural change of the Lee-Carter model and investigating the actuarial implications. For the purpose, we employ the tests proposed by Coelho and Nunes [2] and analyze the mortality data for six countries including Korea since 1970. Also, we calculate life expectancies and whole life insurance premiums by taking into account the structural change found in the Korean male mortality rates. Our empirical result shows that more caution needs to be paid to the Lee-Carter modeling and its actuarial applications.

• 수완나부미
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.91-128
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• 2023

In recent decades, Indonesia and the Middle Eastern countries have increased and expanded their political, security, economic, and socio-cultural ties. Qatar is one of the Middle Eastern countries which have fortified ties with Indonesia. This article aims to analyze the nature and scope of Indonesia-Qatar relations through the five-dimensional framework developed by George Eberling, which consists of political-diplomatic, economic-trade, military-security, cultural, and petroleum-energy relations (Eberling 2017). Despite being significantly distinct in history, demography, geographic size, and location, Jakarta and Doha have been provided opportunities to expand their cooperation on multifaceted dimensions by way of common economic, geopolitical, and cultural interests. Throughout the paper, the primary drivers of the cooperation are also discussed, alongside its future prospects.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권8호
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• pp.4137-4141
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• 2016

Background: A recent guideline by the American Cancer Society recommended that mammography (MMG) should be done for women starting in their mid-40s. In Thailand, information on opportunistic mammography screening is limited and data on the total incidence of breast cancer are also lacking. The purpose of this study was to estimate the breast cancer detection, incident and prevalence rates among Thai women. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the opportunistic mammography screening of normal women between 30 and 80 years who underwent the procedure between 2001 and 2010. All cases were followed until 2012. The detection rate was calculated for the whole period of observation using 'number of women with positive findings' divided by 'total number of women screened'. The incidence rate was calculated only at the first MMG while the subsequence rate was calculated based on all new cases detected at each subsequent MMG. Results: Among the 47,430 women, there were 152,091 MMGs or approximately 3.2 occasions per person (range, 1-10). The average duration of the interval between each subsequence visit was 1.8 years. Overall, breast cancer was detected in 543 women, with a detection rate of 10.3 per 1,000 persons. The prevalence rate of breast cancer at the first visit was 5.78 per 1,000 persons. The incidence or new cases detected at any follow-up visit was 10.4 per 1,000 persons. The overall interval cancer was 0.91 per 1,000 women, mainly detected before their second and third MMG, with a rate of 0.0.47 and 0.76 per 1,000 women. Conclusions: Opportunistic mammography screening in Thailand detected 10 case of breast cancer from each 1,000 women. This paper indicated a high rate of cancer detection during a two year interval, hence, a screening mammogram should be performed more often.

• 한국환경생태학회지
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.658-675
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• 2016

분포지의 환경특성, 개체군구조, 생태적지위, 생활사 특성 그리고 개체군 통계적 연구는 효과적인 보전을 위해 필수적인 정보이다. 우리는 12년간의 분포조사를 통해 총 37개의 분포지를 확인하였고 그중 12개 지역에 있는 25개의 집단을 대상으로 생육지의 환경과 개체군 구조를 조사하였다. 강원도 평창군 대관령면의 8개 집단을 대상으로 4년간에 걸친 개체군동태를 조사하였다. 4년간의 재배실험과 화분매개곤충의 영향을 관찰하였다. 조사결과 산작약은 비교적 넓은 식생환경에 걸쳐 분포하였다. 조사가 이루어진 25개 집단의 개체군 구조는 비교적 안정적인 집단과 극단적으로 성체만이 존재하는 집단 등 상당한 차이를 나타내었다. 조사기간 동안 상층식생에 생성된 숲 틈이 개체군 동태에 영향을 미치는 요인으로는 추정되었다. 재배실험에서 유묘는 토양의 유기물이 상대적으로 적은 곳에서 잘 성장하였다. 화분매개곤충의 방문이 결실한 종자의 수와 결실률에서 높게 나타나는 경향이 있었다. 결론적으로, 산작약의 분포는 환경적 요인과 더불어 분포에 관여하는 다른 요인의 연구가 필요하며 그 중에서 종자의 운반체에 대한 연구의 필요성을 제안하였다. 현재의 산작약 개체군은 과거 급격한 분포지의 감소 이후 확대되는 과정으로 평가되었다. 멸종위기야생식물인 산작약의 효과적인 보전을 위해서는 시공간적 확장을 통한 종에 대한 이해와 이를 바탕으로 한 생태계의 건강성 유지를 제안하였다.

• 대한지리학회지
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• 제47권1호
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• pp.98-120
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• 2012

본 연구의 주된 목적은 다지역 코호트-요인법을 적용하여 우리나라의 시도별 장래 인구 추계를 실행하는 것이다. 마르코프 연쇄 모델과 Rogers의 다지역 인구 추계 모델에 대한 검토를 바탕으로 실행 가능한 다지역 코호트-요인법의 프레임워크를 설정하였다. 이 프레임워크를 우리나라 데이터에 적용하여 2005~2030년에 대한 5년 단위의 시도별 인구 추계를 실행하였으며, 그 결과에 대한 타당성을 검토하였다. 중요한 연구 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 본 연구의 추계치를 기존 통계청의 추계치 및 경험 데이터와 비교해 본 결과 제안된 추계 기법의 방법론적 타당성이 매우 높은 것으로 드러났다. 둘째, 본 연구의 방법론은 미래의 지역간 인구이동 매트릭스를 산출한다는 측면에서 추계 결과의 유용성이 매우 높은 것으로 판단되었다. 미래의 지역간 인구이동에 대한 정보는 지역별 인구변동을 이해하고 실질적인 정책 대안을 제시하는데 핵심적인 역할을 할 수 있다. 본 연구는 국가 전체의 인구변동 보다는 인구 이동을 통해 상호 연결되어 있는 하위 지역 인구들의 진화 과정을 더욱 강조하는 다지역 관점의 중요성을 예증하고 있다.

• 한국인구학
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.219-243
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• 2005

이 글은 1977-2004년의 기간 동안 한국인구학회의 공식학술지에 수록된 총 367편 게재물의 특성을 분석하여 그 동안 한국인구학의 발전과 연구경향의 변화를 살펴보고 있다. 초창기의 학회지에는 연구논문 이외에도 심포지엄 발표논문, 권두언, 특별기고, 동정 등 다양한 유형의 글이 실렸지만 점차 연구논문이 주류를 이루는 방향으로 변화되었다. 그리고 1985년부터는 연 2회로 발간횟수가 증가함에 따라 게재물의 수가 급격히 증가하는 추세를 보인다. 게재된 논문들의 주제를 시기별로 나누어 살펴보면, 초기에는 인구정책, 출산 사망, 인구이동 등의 전통적 연구 주제들이 높은 비중을 차지하였으나 점차 인구규모와 특징, 노동력, 혼인, 가족, 노인, 고령화, 지역연구 등 다양하고 복합적인 주제의 연구논문들이 많이 게재되고 있다. 또한 게재논문의 저자들을 분석한 결과, 초창기에는 연구기관과 통계 관련 국가기관에 속한 연구자들이 상대적으로 많았으나, 1980년대 중반 이후부터는 대학 소속의 연구자들이 급격하게 증가하는 추세를 보인다. 그리고 활동적인 몇몇 연구자들의 기여도가 매우 높은 것으로 드러났다. 분석에 사용된 자료는 각종 사회조사자료 인구센서스와 문헌자료가 과반수를 점유하는 것으로 나타났다. 아울러 초기의 분석방법은 주로 정책분석, 빈도와 교차표분석, 평균차분석이 주류를 이루었으나, 1980년대 중반 이후부터는 회귀분석이, 그리고 1990년대 이후에는 로지스틱분석, 생존분석 등 정교한 기법들의 비중이 급격하게 증가하는 추세를 보인다.

• 대한인간공학회지
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.79-85
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• 2007

Demand forecasting methods for a consumer product such as TV or refrigerator are widely known. However, sales forecast for a brand new product cannot be estimated using conventional forecasting methods. This study proposes a five-step procedure in forecasting a newly developed product. Step one defines functions in a High Touch product in order to estimate relative attraction of the product to consumer group. In step two, for a comparison purpose, a compatible product that is successfully penetrated into market is selected. Step three breaks a target population into many segments based on demography. Step four calculates relative attraction between the High Touch product and the compatible product. Finally, market penetration rate of the High Touch product is estimated using a bell-shaped diffusion curve of the compatible product. The process offers a method to estimate potential demand and growth pattern of the new High Touch product.

• The Korean Journal of Ecology
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.305-316
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• 1991

Growth hadit and demograph in a mature population of polygonatum and polygonatum humile in kanghwa island were studied for two growing seasons. Shoots of two species emerged early spring from the growing apices of the underdground rhizomes which had persisted for up to 1~5 year.after flowering, the ramets produced two rhizome buds at the shoot base. Bacause of the apical dominance in the rhizome system, a new rhizome was developed from only one bud, an actual bud,and the other latent buds were suppressed sothat remained dormant. The latent dud produced a new rhizome only when the actual dud was severed by the herbivores or by the physical obstacles. Therefore, the ramet number is not increased by the new rhizome from the latent bud. however, new ramets dould sometimes grow from latent buds which had been produced more than a year ago. Production of these ramets was main means increasing the ramet numbew and widening the potential zone of exploitation. Changes in size class of each ramet were noyiceable after a tear in small size-classes. Small ramets replaced themselves with larger-sized ramet, while large ramets with similar-sized or smallar-sized ramets. ramet numbers were average 0.82and 1.14 times of those fromthe previous year inp. involucratum and p. humile, though there was between-site variation. Almost all the ramets in the quadrats were alive during the growing season. when the entire rhizome systems were excavater next spring, there were many rhizomesegments without shoots, especially in p. involucratum. therefore, the drcrease of ramet number in p. involucratum in probably due to the climatic factors of winter.

• 대한한의학회지
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.107-120
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• 2012

Objectives: Clinically, patients with dyspepsia often complain of several gastrointestinal (GI) and extra-GI symptoms. However, there have been few studies investigating the relationship between GI symptoms and extra-GI symptoms. The aim of this study was to characterize the clinical features of the 991 outpatients with GI and extra-GI symptom and the relationships between GI and extra-GI symptoms. Methods: 991 patients newly visiting Weedahm Oriental Hospital for GI symptoms were included. Those who had disorders caused by the hepatobiliary-pancreatic system were excluded. The 991 outpatients were interviewed with a standardized questionnaire inquiring about demography, past medical history, past institutional care, GI symptoms and extra-GI symptoms. Results: Among 991 patients, 780 (78.7%) had more than three GI symptoms and 451 (45.5%) had more than five. Among 991 patients, 545 (55.0%) had more than three extra-GI symptoms and 285 (28.8%) had more than five. There was a statistically significant correlation between GI symptoms and extra-GI symptoms such as headache, fatigue, forgetfulness, eyeball pain, unrest, dizziness, muscle pain, chest pain, and dyspnea. Conclusions: We found that there was statistically significant correlation between GI symptoms and extra-GI symptoms, which suggests the possibility of main common pathophysiology between GI symptoms and extra-GI symptoms. Further studies will be required to elucidate the main common pathophysiology between GI symptoms and extra-GI symptoms.

• 한국지역사회생활과학회지
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.65-73
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• 2005

The purpose of the research was to investigate the characteristics and related factors of cyber dating violence. The subjects were 548 adolescents in high schools. The gathered information was analyzed by frequency, percent, 1-test, ANOVA, and Correlation by using SPSS 10.0 program. The results were as follows: (1) $65.3{\%}$ of the answerers experienced cyber dating, and $44.5{\%}$ of the students have experienced cyber dating violence. (2) $40.3{\%}$ of the students were damaged by psychological violence, and $21.1{\%}$ of the students have caused psychological violence. (3) $41.9{\%}$ of the damaged students and $18{\%}$ of the perpetrating students were included in the total answerers, but among 244 experienced students, $94.3{\%}$ were damaged students and $40.6{\%}$ perpetrated sexual violence, so it is concluded that experienced students experience sexual violence. (4) Looking over the social demography factors and cyber dating violence, boys rather than girls, and vocational school students rather than academic school students have more cyber violence experiences. (5) The relationship between psychological and sexual violence has a significant relationship with all cyber violence experiences.