Macroeconomic Consequences of Pay-as-you-go Public Pension System (부과방식 공적연금의 거시경제적 영향)
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- KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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- v.30 no.2
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- pp.225-270
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- 2008
We analyze macroeconomic consequences of pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) public pension system with a simple overlapping generations model. Contrary to large body of existing literatures offering quantitative results based on simulation study, we take another route by adopting a highly simplified framework in search of qualitatively tractable analytical results. The main contribution of our results lies in providing a sound theoretical foundation that can be utilized in interpreting various quantitative results offered by simulation studies of large scale general equilibrium models. We present a simple overlapping generations model with a defined benefit(DB) PAYGO public pension system as a benchmark case and derive an analytical equilibrium solution utilizing graphical illustration. We also discuss the modifications of the benchmark model required to encompass a defined contribution(DC) public pension system into the basic framework. Comparative statics analysis provides three important implications; First, introduction and expansion of the PAYGO public pension, DB or DC, result in lower level of capital accumulation and higher expected rate of return on the risky asset. Second, it is shown that the progress of population aging is accompanied by lower capital stock due to decrease in both demand and supply of risky asset. Moreover, risk premium for risky asset increases(decreases) as the speed of population aging accelerates(decelerates) so that the possibility of so-called "the great meltdown" of asset market cannot be excluded although the odds are not high. Third, it is most likely that the switch from DB PAYGO to DC PAYGO would result in lower capital stock and higher expected return on the risky asset mainly due to the fact that the young generation regards DC PAYGO pension as another risky asset competing against the risky asset traded in the market. This theoretical prediction coincides with one of the firmly established propositions in empirical literature that the currently dominant form of public pension system has the tendency to crowd out private capital accumulation.
The objectives of this study is to assess the influence of individual characteristics and economic environment on the entrepreneurship such as entrepreneurial Intention and behavior based on the theory of Planned behaviors. This study used a country-level merged data set composed of GEM(Global Entrepreneurship Monitor) data and the OECD Statistics data. And this used the fixed effect model to analyze the panel data of 31 OECD countries during the period from 2005 to 2014. Our findings show that subjective norm has a significantly positive effect on entrepreneurial intention. In individual characteristics, the perceived opportunities has a significantly positive effect on early-stage entrepreneurial activity(TEA) and improvement-driven opportunity entrepreneurial activity. We identify the differences of between necessity-driven and improvement-driven opportunity entrepreneurial activity. For example, the effect on necessity-driven entrepreneurial activity is significantly negative. We also find the differences of between necessity-driven and improvement-driven opportunity entrepreneurial activity in economic environment variables. While real GDP growth as a demand variable has a significantly positive effect on necessity-driven entrepreneurial activity, unemployment rate as a supply variable has a significantly negative effect on early-stage entrepreneurial activity(TEA) and improvement-driven opportunity entrepreneurial activity. And GDP per capita as a supply variable has a significantly positive effect on early-stage entrepreneurial activity(TEA) and improvement-driven opportunity entrepreneurial activity. But the effect on necessity-driven entrepreneurial activity is significantly negative. We provide an interpretation of these empirical findings, emphasizing the importance of considering individual characteristics and economic environment simultaneously in promoting entrepreneurship.
Agriculture is a primary industry that influenced by the weather or meterological factors more than other industry. Global warming and worldwide climate changes, and unusual weather phenomena are fatal in agricultural industry and human life. Therefore, many previous studies have been made to find the relationship between weather and the productivity of agriculture. Meterological factors also influence on the distribution of agricultural product. For example, price of agricultural product is determined in the market, and also influenced by the weather of the market. However, there is only a few study was made to find this link. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of meterological factors on the distribution of agricultural products, focusing on the distribution of chinese cabbages. Chinese cabbage is a main ingredient of Kimchi, and basic essential vegetable in Korean dinner table. However, the production of chinese cabbages is influenced by weather and very fluctuating so that the variation of its price is so unstable. Therefore, both consumers and farmers do not feel comfortable at the unstable price of chinese cabbages. In this study, we analyze the real transaction data of chinese cabbage in wholesale markets and meterological factors depending on the variety and geography. We collect and analyze data of meterological factors such as temperatures, humidity, cloudiness, rainfall, snowfall, wind speed, insolation, sunshine duration in producing and consuming region of chinese cabbages. The result of this study shows that the meterological factors such as temperature and humidity significantly influence on the volume and price of chinese cabbage transaction in wholesale market. Especially, the weather of consuming region has greater correlation effects on transaction than that of producing region in all types of chinese cabbages. Among the whole agricultural lifecycle of chinese cabbages, 'seeding - harvest - shipment - wholesale', meterological factors such as temperature and rainfall in shipment and wholesale period are significantly correlated with transaction volume and price of crops. Based on the result of correlation analysis, we make a regression analysis to verify the meterological factors' effects on the volume and price of chines cabbage transaction in wholesale market. The results of stepwise regression analysis are shown in