• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand-Supply Model

Search Result 801, Processing Time 0.036 seconds

Macroeconomic Consequences of Pay-as-you-go Public Pension System (부과방식 공적연금의 거시경제적 영향)

  • Park, Chang-Gyun;Hur, Seok-Kyun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
    • /
    • v.30 no.2
    • /
    • pp.225-270
    • /
    • 2008
  • We analyze macroeconomic consequences of pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) public pension system with a simple overlapping generations model. Contrary to large body of existing literatures offering quantitative results based on simulation study, we take another route by adopting a highly simplified framework in search of qualitatively tractable analytical results. The main contribution of our results lies in providing a sound theoretical foundation that can be utilized in interpreting various quantitative results offered by simulation studies of large scale general equilibrium models. We present a simple overlapping generations model with a defined benefit(DB) PAYGO public pension system as a benchmark case and derive an analytical equilibrium solution utilizing graphical illustration. We also discuss the modifications of the benchmark model required to encompass a defined contribution(DC) public pension system into the basic framework. Comparative statics analysis provides three important implications; First, introduction and expansion of the PAYGO public pension, DB or DC, result in lower level of capital accumulation and higher expected rate of return on the risky asset. Second, it is shown that the progress of population aging is accompanied by lower capital stock due to decrease in both demand and supply of risky asset. Moreover, risk premium for risky asset increases(decreases) as the speed of population aging accelerates(decelerates) so that the possibility of so-called "the great meltdown" of asset market cannot be excluded although the odds are not high. Third, it is most likely that the switch from DB PAYGO to DC PAYGO would result in lower capital stock and higher expected return on the risky asset mainly due to the fact that the young generation regards DC PAYGO pension as another risky asset competing against the risky asset traded in the market. This theoretical prediction coincides with one of the firmly established propositions in empirical literature that the currently dominant form of public pension system has the tendency to crowd out private capital accumulation.

  • PDF

The Effect of Individual Characteristics and Economic Environment on Entrepreneurship (개인의 계획된 행위와 국가경제환경이 기업가정신에 미치는 영향 분석: OECD국가를 대상으로)

  • Han, Sangyun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
    • /
    • v.11 no.4
    • /
    • pp.149-165
    • /
    • 2016
  • The objectives of this study is to assess the influence of individual characteristics and economic environment on the entrepreneurship such as entrepreneurial Intention and behavior based on the theory of Planned behaviors. This study used a country-level merged data set composed of GEM(Global Entrepreneurship Monitor) data and the OECD Statistics data. And this used the fixed effect model to analyze the panel data of 31 OECD countries during the period from 2005 to 2014. Our findings show that subjective norm has a significantly positive effect on entrepreneurial intention. In individual characteristics, the perceived opportunities has a significantly positive effect on early-stage entrepreneurial activity(TEA) and improvement-driven opportunity entrepreneurial activity. We identify the differences of between necessity-driven and improvement-driven opportunity entrepreneurial activity. For example, the effect on necessity-driven entrepreneurial activity is significantly negative. We also find the differences of between necessity-driven and improvement-driven opportunity entrepreneurial activity in economic environment variables. While real GDP growth as a demand variable has a significantly positive effect on necessity-driven entrepreneurial activity, unemployment rate as a supply variable has a significantly negative effect on early-stage entrepreneurial activity(TEA) and improvement-driven opportunity entrepreneurial activity. And GDP per capita as a supply variable has a significantly positive effect on early-stage entrepreneurial activity(TEA) and improvement-driven opportunity entrepreneurial activity. But the effect on necessity-driven entrepreneurial activity is significantly negative. We provide an interpretation of these empirical findings, emphasizing the importance of considering individual characteristics and economic environment simultaneously in promoting entrepreneurship.

  • PDF

A Study on the Effects of Meterological Factors on the Distribution of Agricultural Products: Focused on the Distribution of Chinese Cabbages (기상요인이 농산물 유통에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 배추 유통 사례를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hyunjoung;Hong, Jinhwan
    • Journal of Distribution Research
    • /
    • v.17 no.5
    • /
    • pp.59-83
    • /
    • 2012
  • Agriculture is a primary industry that influenced by the weather or meterological factors more than other industry. Global warming and worldwide climate changes, and unusual weather phenomena are fatal in agricultural industry and human life. Therefore, many previous studies have been made to find the relationship between weather and the productivity of agriculture. Meterological factors also influence on the distribution of agricultural product. For example, price of agricultural product is determined in the market, and also influenced by the weather of the market. However, there is only a few study was made to find this link. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of meterological factors on the distribution of agricultural products, focusing on the distribution of chinese cabbages. Chinese cabbage is a main ingredient of Kimchi, and basic essential vegetable in Korean dinner table. However, the production of chinese cabbages is influenced by weather and very fluctuating so that the variation of its price is so unstable. Therefore, both consumers and farmers do not feel comfortable at the unstable price of chinese cabbages. In this study, we analyze the real transaction data of chinese cabbage in wholesale markets and meterological factors depending on the variety and geography. We collect and analyze data of meterological factors such as temperatures, humidity, cloudiness, rainfall, snowfall, wind speed, insolation, sunshine duration in producing and consuming region of chinese cabbages. The result of this study shows that the meterological factors such as temperature and humidity significantly influence on the volume and price of chinese cabbage transaction in wholesale market. Especially, the weather of consuming region has greater correlation effects on transaction than that of producing region in all types of chinese cabbages. Among the whole agricultural lifecycle of chinese cabbages, 'seeding - harvest - shipment - wholesale', meterological factors such as temperature and rainfall in shipment and wholesale period are significantly correlated with transaction volume and price of crops. Based on the result of correlation analysis, we make a regression analysis to verify the meterological factors' effects on the volume and price of chines cabbage transaction in wholesale market. The results of stepwise regression analysis are shown in

    and
    . The type of chinese cabbages are categorized by 5 types, i.e. alpine, gimjang for winter, spring, summer, and winter crop, and all of the regression models are shown significant relationship. In addition, meterological factors in shipment and wholesale period are entered more in regression model than those in seeding and harvest period. This result implies that weather in consuming region is also important in the distribution of chinese cabbages. Based on the result of this study, we find several implications and recommendations for policy makers of agricultural product distribution. The goal of agricultural product distribution policy is to insure proper price and production cost for farmers and provide proper price and quality, and stable supply for consumers. Therefore, coping with the uncertainty of weather is very essential to make a fruitful effect of the policy. In reality, very big part of consumer price of chinese cabbage is made up of the margin of intermediaries, because they take the risk. In addition, policy makers make efforts for farmers to utilize AWIS (Agricultural Weather Information System). In order to do that, it should integrate the relevant information including distribution and marketing as well as production. Offering a consulting service to farmers about weather management is also expected to be a good option in agriculture and weather industry. Reflecting on the result of this study, the distribution authorities can offer the guideline for the timing and volume of harvest, and it is expected to contribute to the stable equilibrium of supply and demand of agricultural products.

  • PDF
  • A Study on Estimating Rice Yield in DPRK Using MODIS NDVI and Rainfall Data (MODIS NDVI와 강수량 자료를 이용한 북한의 벼 수량 추정 연구)

    • Hong, Suk Young;Na, Sang-Il;Lee, Kyung-Do;Kim, Yong-Seok;Baek, Shin-Chul
      • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
      • /
      • v.31 no.5
      • /
      • pp.441-448
      • /
      • 2015
    • Lack of agricultural information for food supply and demand in Democratic People's republic Korea(DPRK) make people sometimes confused for right and timely decision for policy support. We carried out a study to estimate paddy rice yield in DPRK using MODIS NDVI reflecting rice growth and climate data. Mean of MODIS $NDVI_{max}$ in paddy rice over the country acquired and processed from 2002 to 2014 and accumulated rainfall collected from 27 weather stations in September from 2002 to 2014 were used to estimated paddy rice yield in DPRK. Coefficient of determination of the multiple regression model was 0.44 and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) was 0.27 ton/ha. Two-way analysis of variance resulted in 3.0983 of F ratio and 0.1008 of p value. Estimated milled rice yield showed the lowest value as 2.71 ton/ha in 2007, which was consistent with RDA rice yield statistics and the highest value as 3.54 ton/ha in 2006, which was not consistent with the statistics. Scatter plot of estimated rice yield and the rice yield statistics implied that estimated rice yield was higher when the rice yield statistics was less than 3.3 ton/ha and lower when the rice yield statistics was greater than 3.3 ton/ha. Limitation of rice yield model was due to lower quality of climate and statistics data, possible cloud contamination of time-series NDVI data, and crop mask for rice paddy, and coarse spatial resolution of MODIS satellite data. Selection of representative areas for paddy rice consisting of homogeneous pixels and utilization of satellite-based weather information can improve the input parameters for rice yield model in DPRK in the future.

    Development of Single-span Plastic Greenhouses for Hot Pepper Rainproof Cultivation (고추 비가림재배용 단동 비닐하우스 개발)

    • Yu, In Ho;Lee, Eung Ho;Cho, Myeong Whan;Ryu, Hee Ryong;Moon, Doo Gyung
      • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
      • /
      • v.22 no.4
      • /
      • pp.371-377
      • /
      • 2013
    • The government has been carrying out a project for supporting the rain shelter for hot pepper as part of measures stabilizing the demand and supply of hot pepper since 2012. However, the eaves height of single-span plastic greenhouses extensively used in farms is low, which are inappropriate for the rainproof cultivation of hot pepper. This study attempted to develop single-span plastic greenhouses which are structurally safe and have the dimensions suitable for the rainproof cultivation of hot pepper as well. The structure status of plastic greenhouses and restructuring wishes of 56 rainproof cultivation farms nationwide were investigated to set up the width and height of the plastic greenhouses. 53% of the plastic greenhouses currently in operation had a width of under 7 m and 64% of their eaves had a height of 1.5 m or less, which accounted for the highest rate. Mostly the width of 7.0 m was desired for the greenhouses and the height of 2.0 m for their eaves, so these values were chosen as the dimensions for the singlespan plastic greenhouses. After an analysis of their structural safety while changing the specifications of the rafter pipe in various ways, 5 kinds of models were suggested considering the frame ratio and installation costs. The 12-Pepper-1 model is a developed single-span plastic greenhouse for hot pepper in which a ${\emptyset}42.2{\times}2.1t$ rafter pipe is installed at an interval of 90cm and the models of 12-Pepper-2 through 5 are the other developed ones in which a ${\emptyset}31.8{\times}1.5t$ rafter pipe is installed at intervals of 60 cm, 70 cm, 80 cm and 90 cm, respectively. As a result of an analysis of economic feasibility of 12-Pepper-2 compared to 10-Single-3 in the notification of the Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, it turned out that there would be an increase in profits by about 1.2 million won based on one building of a greenhouse sized 672 $m^2$.

    A Study on the Start-up and Growth Business Model of Small and Medium-Sized Manufacturing Enterprises: Hyunsung Techno (제조기업의 창업과 성장의 비즈니스 모델 연구: 현성테크노)

    • Choi, In-Hyok;Kim, Do-Yeon
      • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
      • /
      • v.14 no.6
      • /
      • pp.103-117
      • /
      • 2019
    • Under the uncertainties and the consequent turmoils of the IMF financial crisis in Korea, Hyunsung Techno was founded in 1997 on the basis of automobile press molding which is critical for the quality of automobile. Ever since, Hyunsung Techno has grown rapidly based on the domestic market; however, gradually, it had faced a stalemate in terms of the saturation, on the supply side and the growth limit, on the demand side, of the domestic molding market. Accordingly, Hyunsung pushed for a strategy to localize overseas markets and a new acquisition strategy instead of resting on the domestic mold industry's growth, and the success of these strategies enabled it to leap forward into a global company with five companies including affiliates and 70 billion won in sales. The main reason why Hyunsung Techno evolved from a small and medium-sized manufacturing company into a global businesses is due to the success of Boa Constrictor M&A strategy. Its acquisition strategy is not just a successful case of any acquisition, but a rare, maybe the first domestic case of a successful acquisition of a primary supplier by a secondary supplier. Through the success of this strategy, Hyunsung Techno has achieved a continuous growth of businesses, an increase in sales volume, and expansion into new businesses. And on top of that, this achievements is leading it to be a global conglomerate In this study, Hyunsung Techno's success strategy, which is transformed from a small domestic manufacturing company into a global enterprise, was analyzed in detail with its development stages divided into start-up, overseas expansion, acquisitions, and business diversification. Eventually, this case study is meant to offer strategic implications for other small and medium-sized businesses under the current, gloomy economy of low or zero growth of today.

    A Study of Fish Community on Up and Downstream of Hwabuk Dam Under Construction in the Upper Wie Stream. (위천 상류에 건설 중인 화북댐 상 하류 어류군집에 관한 연구)

    • Seo, Jin-Won;Kim, Hee-Sung
      • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
      • /
      • v.42 no.2
      • /
      • pp.260-269
      • /
      • 2009
    • Hwabuk Dam has been under construction to reduce flood damage in Nakdong River watershed and to supply stable water for middle area of Gyeongbuk Province. Therefore, fish investigation in up and downstream of the dam was conducted from 2004 to 2008 in order to determine any negative effect on fish community due to dam construction and to use as fundamental data for conserving species diversity and maintaining stream health. According to data analysis on water quality, temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, suspended solids, and total E-coli had seasonal variation, but they did not significantly differ in sites. However, biological and chemical oxygen demand, chlorophyll-a, nitrogen, and phosphorus representing organic matter and nutrient concentration were higher in upper site and decreased to lower site so that they differed by site. Concentration of arsenic among the heavy metals was less than 0.05 mg $L^{-1}$, which is regulated for protection of human health in water quality standard, except for 0.092 mg $L^{-1}$ in June 2005. During the study period, the total number of fish caught from the 6 sites was 10,263 representing 7 families 19 species. Among them, dominant and subdominant species were Korean chub (Zacco koreanus, 62.5%) and Chinese minnow (Rhynchocypris oxycephalus, 10.6%) which inhabit mostly in mid and upper streams, Korea. Among the 19 species, Korean endemic species were 9 species (47.4%) including Korean slender gudgeon (Squalidus gracilis majimae), Korean dark sleeper (Odontobutis platycephala), and Korean shiner (Coreoleuciscus splendidus). There was several individuals of the $1^{st}$-class endangered species, Naktong nose loach (Koreocobitis nahtongensis), caught in 2005${\sim}$2007, and no introduced species of fish was found in entire sampling period. According to result of community analysis, dominance index decreased toward lower site, but diversity and richness indices increased toward lower site. The equation of length-weight relationship on the dominant species was TW=0.000003$(TL)^{3.2603}$. The parameter b in the equation was greater than 3.0 indicating good nutritional condition in the populations. Compared to populations of Korean chub in other streams, the population in Hwabuk Dam watershed had higher mean of condition factor by size indicating better growth rate. With fish fauna and multi-metric health assessment model in each sampling attempt, index of biotic integrity (IBI) was evaluated and it resulted mostly in good (26${\sim}$35) and excellent (36${\sim}$40) condition in all sites, and the mean of IBI was the highest in site 5. The results indicate that it is very important to study not only environmental impact assessment with fish composition but also stream health assessment in order to conserve healthy aquatic ecosystem.

    Analysis the Appropriate Schedule for the Installment Payment Amount and Establishment of the Post sale System and Policy in the Apartment Construction (공동주택 건설사업에서 후분양의 제도 및 정책 수립을 위한 분담금 납부 적정시기 분석)

    • Yoon, Inhwan;Bae, Byungyun
      • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
      • /
      • v.22 no.4
      • /
      • pp.59-65
      • /
      • 2021
    • Since the 2016 "Housing Act Partial Amendment" and the "2018 Housing Comprehensive Amendment Plan", interest in the pre sale system and post sale system of apartment houses has been on the rise. In order to compare the advantages and disadvantages of the pre sale system and the post sale system of apartment houses, and to establish the basis for the institutional policy of the post sale system, a questionnaire survey method was used for tenants of the apartment house from the public side, and issues of time and cost. The time series analysis method is intended to suggest an appropriate time for payment of contributions. Accordingly, through a review of existing theories and literature, the post sale system of public and private institutions was organized, and through a questionnaire survey, the path to securing pre sale money, product information of the model house, and the degree of awareness of the effect of the post sale system were investigated. For the post sale fund support and payment method, it is necessary to increase the commercial line for existing financiers from the user's point of view, and it is necessary to operate in consideration of the economic power of the pre sale market by region. Both 60% post sale and 80% post sale have a price range of up to KRW 10 million, and the total interest rate is 5.0%, and the annual interest rate is about 2.8% for 60% post sale, and about 2.1% for 80% post sale, which is lower than the current 3.1%. I need an interest rate. The research is a perception survey targeting a total of 5,213 households in a sample of after sale apartments in public institutions. As the actual values are analyzed using a time series on the effects of market supply and demand and market prices, there is a limit to applying them to prospective residents of private apartments. In addition, to respond to first time tenants, a questionnaire survey was conducted on five complexes that have moved in within the last five years.

    Analysis of Causality of the Increase in the Port Congestion due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and BDI(Baltic Dry Index) (COVID-19 팬데믹으로 인한 체선율 증가와 부정기선 운임지수의 인과성 분석)

    • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
      • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
      • /
      • v.37 no.4
      • /
      • pp.161-173
      • /
      • 2021
    • The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

    Sorghum Field Segmentation with U-Net from UAV RGB (무인기 기반 RGB 영상 활용 U-Net을 이용한 수수 재배지 분할)

    • Kisu Park;Chanseok Ryu ;Yeseong Kang;Eunri Kim;Jongchan Jeong;Jinki Park
      • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
      • /
      • v.39 no.5_1
      • /
      • pp.521-535
      • /
      • 2023
    • When converting rice fields into fields,sorghum (sorghum bicolor L. Moench) has excellent moisture resistance, enabling stable production along with soybeans. Therefore, it is a crop that is expected to improve the self-sufficiency rate of domestic food crops and solve the rice supply-demand imbalance problem. However, there is a lack of fundamental statistics,such as cultivation fields required for estimating yields, due to the traditional survey method, which takes a long time even with a large manpower. In this study, U-Net was applied to RGB images based on unmanned aerial vehicle to confirm the possibility of non-destructive segmentation of sorghum cultivation fields. RGB images were acquired on July 28, August 13, and August 25, 2022. On each image acquisition date, datasets were divided into 6,000 training datasets and 1,000 validation datasets with a size of 512 × 512 images. Classification models were developed based on three classes consisting of Sorghum fields(sorghum), rice and soybean fields(others), and non-agricultural fields(background), and two classes consisting of sorghum and non-sorghum (others+background). The classification accuracy of sorghum cultivation fields was higher than 0.91 in the three class-based models at all acquisition dates, but learning confusion occurred in the other classes in the August dataset. In contrast, the two-class-based model showed an accuracy of 0.95 or better in all classes, with stable learning on the August dataset. As a result, two class-based models in August will be advantageous for calculating the cultivation fields of sorghum.


    (34141) Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information, 245, Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon
    Copyright (C) KISTI. All Rights Reserved.