• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand-Supply Model

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Estimating the Demand for Domestic Water in Seoul : Appilcation of the Error Correction Model (서울시 생활용수 수요 추정 -오차수정모형을 적용하여-)

  • Kwak, Seung-Jun;Lee, Chung-Ki
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.81-97
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    • 2002
  • Unlike the existing supply-centered water policy, demand management policy of water has become an increasingly important issue in Korea. This paper attempts to analyse the demand for domestic water in Seoul. We employed Engle-Granger's error correction model(ECM) to deduced the price and income elasticities of the water demand. Particularly, we used accounted water amounts instead of supplied water amounts as representative variable of water demand. The result indicates that ECM set up is appropriate and short-run and long-run price elasticities derived by the model are -0.145 and -1.414. In contrast with other studies, we can conclude that the water demand for the water price is elastic. Besides, we can infer from this result that the water price policy with respect to a decrease of leakage ratio is more effective.

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A REVIEW ON THE DEMAND ESTIMATION MODEL FOR THE PEDIATRIC DENTISTS IN KOREA (소아치과 전문의 수요추계 모형에 관한 고찰)

  • Lee, Moon-Young;Jeong, Tae-Sung;Kim, Shin
    • Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.43-52
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    • 2007
  • The supply and demand planning the pediatric dentists is earnest, because of the start of the dental specialist system on 2008 and aging society with low fertility. Therefore in order to develop the model, that is adequate to estimate demand for the pediatric dentists, a studies on the supply and demand planing of other health manpower were reviewed. The obtained results were as follows : 1. The health demand method was appropriate for demand estimation of the pediatric dentists. 2. There was independent variables needed for demand estimation model: prevalence, utilization rate, referral rate, fertility rate, productivity, annual working days, and so on. 3. Since statistical data for application of these variables was insufficient as result of searching, questionnaire researching and discussion of specialist may be necessary. 4. Each independent variables should be inducted into an equation by using a adequate regression model and then estimated.

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Analysis on Emergency Power Supplies in Buildings and a Model for Safe Operation of the Emergency Power System (건축물의 비상전원 적용실태 및 자가발전설비의 안전 운전 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Won-Kang;Choi, Chung-Seog
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.49-56
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this paper is to present a model for operating an emergency power system(EPS) that can secure a sufficient power supply used in case of a fire by analyzing the status of power supplies for emergency and firefighting operations. Investigations on the one of the causes of the operational failure of firefighting systems show evidence of EPS. Generally, when power to a building is interrupted, EPS supplies the emergency load(excepted firefighting load) first. When a power outage and a fire occur simultaneously, the EPS must be able to supply both the emergency load and the firefighting load, especially the firefighting load to the end. However, in order to save construction costs, emergency power generators in apartment, commercial, and business buildings can satisfy only one of the required loads. In cases like this, when a power outage and a fire occur simultaneously, there is a danger of firefighting equipment not operating due to insufficient power supply from the emergency generator. Therefore, an EPS must have a reserved firefighting power that can supply both the firefighting and the emergency load. Such EPS, when faced with a danger of an overload, will shut down the supply to all or part of the emergency load, thus securing a continuous power supply to the firefighting equipment. The generator power system with reserved firefighting power (RFP) will also have an indicator to show that the selective control is being used. General power generation systems for emergency load and firefighting load were found to have a demand factor of 50-60% with a lump. However, when installing an EPS, the builders must choose the higher demand factor suggested according to the official approval demand factor of the building.

Improvement plan for vegetables by introducing the production and shipment stabilization policy

  • Ryu, Sangmo;Han, Sukho;Jang, Heesoo;Kim, Donghwan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.813-825
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    • 2019
  • This paper investigated the effects of a government production and shipment stabilization policy and the improvement plan for vegetables in Korea. In this study, a simulation focused on the changes in farm income for Chinese cabbages & radishes using scenarios. The result shows an increase in farm income according to the government policy. In the short-term, demand and supply are fixed, and the policy effect is positive due to the price support effect of the project. However, for mid- to long-term, the price decreases due to the expansion of supply by business beneficiaries, which is likely to be adversely affected by an unstable supply and demand. This increases the burden of government and local government subsidies. This phenomenon is expected to be amplified as the ratio of production and shipbuilding stabilization programs and items expand. When expanding items and adjusting and setting the percentage of participation in the project, it is desirable to set and operate the appropriate business ratio taking into consideration the demand. To improve the effectiveness of the policy, the following remedies were suggested. First, national supply and demand guidelines should be set up, and the autonomous supply and demand control of the producers should be guided by the different preservation according to the implementation of the supply and demand control obligation. As for detailed equipment, it is necessary to establish the reproduction price for each item, set the base price for each wholesale market, increase the incentive for the producers to participate, and fund a business budget to secure business stability.

A Study on Forecasting Demand and Supply of Marine Officer for Korean Ocean-Going Merchant Vessels (외항 상선 해기사 인력 수요 및 공급 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Sang-hoon Shin;Yong-John Shin
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.7-16
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    • 2024
  • Although the number of ocean-going merchant ships is increasing, the number of Korean marine officers is decreasing. This manpower shortage problem is becoming more serious. This study objectively measured factors determining the demand and supply of ocean-going merchant ship officers and forecasted the exact manpower demand and supply. Demand was predicted by applying the number of ship officers required for each ship size to the number of ships forecasted. The supply was predicted by segmenting by position and age using the Markov model, reflecting increase/decrease factors such as promotion, turnover, retirement, and new entry by year. The demand for ocean-going merchant ship officers will increase from 11,638 in 2023 to 13,879 in 2030 while the supply will decrease from7,006 in 2023 to 6,426 in 2030, with the shortage expected to exceed 10,000 in 2040. This study can be used as a reference to solve the problem of manpower shortage for ocean-going merchant ship officers by improving the accuracy of predictions through objective data, scientific analysis methods, and logical reasoning.

An Empirical Study on Asymmetric Price Transmissions in the Distribution Channels of Fisheries Market (수산물 시장의 유통단계별 가격전달의 비대칭성에 관한 실증 분석)

  • Lee, Jung-Mi;Kim, Ki-Soo
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.59-78
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    • 2010
  • This paper tries to apply the asymmetrical price transmission(APT) behavior observed in the agricultural industry to supply chains of the domestic fishery industry by a statistical manner. The fore mentioned asymmetrical price transmission refers to when price movements in the later stage of the supply chain do not move in a normal or symmetrical manner corresponding to price movements in the earlier stage of the supply chain. Therefore, when the earlier stage price increase and the later stage price increases to a larger degree, it is called positive(+) asymmetry and the opposite behavior is called negative(-) asymmetry. The study examines the data from domestic producers of three fresh fish types, hairtail, mackerel, and cuttlefish, and tries to examine the price asymmetry between the producer or farm, wholesaler, and retail prices via an APT test utilizing unit root, cointegration, and error correction model. The study found, hairtail wholesale and retail pricing bas a negative asymmetric relationship while mackerel has a negative asymmetric pricing relationship at the producer and retail levels of the supply chain. In the case of cuttlefish, all levels of the supply chain showed negative asymmetrical behavior in the supply chain price transmission, meaning the earlier stage price changes are more rapidly and greatly inputted in the later stage of the supply chain pricing. We believe that the reason why the analysis results show negative price asymmetry is due to the uniqueness of fishery products having an important variable such as freshness. If price increases are greater and quicker than price decreases, then consumer demand, which is sensitive to price increases will decrease and subsequently result in the increase of inventory levels, reducing profits for retailers. Also, frozen hairtail, mackerel, and cuttlefish will act as substitute goods to fresh fishery products. Therefore, fresh fishery products have a high demand of price elasticity. When prices increase, demand quickly decreases. Therefore the profit of wholesalers and retailers to decrease, I think this is the main reason of APT in the supply chain of Korea' s fisheries industry.

Development of Model for Simulating Daily Water Storage in Estuary Barrage Dam (하구둑의 일 물수지 모형 개발)

  • Noh, Jae-Kyoung;Lee, Hang-Sik;Jin, Yong-Shin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.495-498
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    • 2003
  • In order to analyze water supply capacity in estuary barrage dam, a system was developed in which base model was consisted of daily water balance model and daily inflow model. Agricultural water demand to paddy fields and domestic and industrial water demand were considered in this daily water balance model. Also outflow volume through sluice gate and inside water level at time to start outflow was conditioned initially to simulate reservoir storage. The DAWAST model was selected to simulate daily reservoir inflow in which return flows from agricultural, domestic and industrial water were included to simulate runoff. Using this developed system, water supply capacity in the Keum river estuary reservoir was analyzed.

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Sustainable Management of Irrigation Water Withdrawal in Major River Basins by Implementing the Irrigation Module of Community Land Model

  • Manas Ranjan Panda;Yeonjoo Kim
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.185-185
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    • 2023
  • Agricultural water demand is considered as the major sector of water withdrawal due to irrigation. The majority part of the global agricultural field depends on various irrigation techniques. Therefore, a timely and sufficient supply of water is the most important requirement for agriculture. Irrigation is implemented in different ways in various land surface models, it can be modeled empirically based on observed irrigation rates or by calculating water supply and demand. Certain models can also calculate the irrigation demand as per the soil water deficit. In these implementations, irrigation is typically applied uniformly over the irrigated land regardless of crop types or irrigation techniques. Whereas, the latest version of Community Land Model (CLM) in the Community Terrestrial Systems Model (CTSM) uses a global distribution map of irrigation with 64 crop functional types (CFTs) to simulate the irrigation water demand. It can estimate irrigation water withdrawal from different sources and the amount or the areas irrigated with different irrigation techniques. Hence, we set up the model for the simulation period of 16 years from 2000 to 2015 to analyze the global irrigation demand at a spatial resolution of 1.9° × 2.5°. The simulated irrigation water demand is evaluated with the available observation data from FAO AQUASTAT database at the country scale. With the evaluated model, this study aims to suggest new sustainable scenarios for the ratios of irrigation water withdrawal, high depending on the withdrawal sources e.g. surface water and groundwater. With such scenarios, the CFT maps are considered as the determining factor for selecting the areas where the crop pattern can be altered for a sustainable irrigation water management depending on the available withdrawal sources. Overall, our study demonstrate that the scenarios for the future sustainable water resources management in terms of irrigation water withdrawal from the both the surface water and groundwater sources may overcome the excessive stress on exploiting the groundwater in major river basins globally.

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Machine Learning-based hydrogen charging station energy demand prediction model (머신러닝 기반 수소 충전소 에너지 수요 예측 모델)

  • MinWoo Hwang;Yerim Ha;Sanguk Park
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2023
  • Hydrogen energy is an eco-friendly energy that produces heat and electricity with high energy efficiency and does not emit harmful substances such as greenhouse gases and fine dust. In particular, smart hydrogen energy is an economical, sustainable, and safe future smart hydrogen energy service, which means a service that stably operates based on 'data' by digitally integrating hydrogen energy infrastructure. In this paper, in order to implement a data-based hydrogen charging station demand forecasting model, three hydrogen charging stations (Chuncheon, Sokcho, Pyeongchang) installed in Gangwon-do were selected, supply and demand data of hydrogen charging stations were secured, and 7 machine learning and deep learning algorithms were used. was selected to learn a model with a total of 27 types of input data (weather data + demand for hydrogen charging stations), and the model was evaluated with root mean square error (RMSE). Through this, this paper proposes a machine learning-based hydrogen charging station energy demand prediction model for optimal hydrogen energy supply and demand.

A Study on the Application of SCOR model for Integrated Defense Logistics System (군 통합물류체계 구축을 위한 SCOR모델 도입방안 연구)

  • Kim, Jeong-Hyeok;Choi, Seok-Cheol
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.73-92
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    • 2005
  • The SCOR(supply chain operations reference) model which is a management tool, has been developed to describe the business activities associated with all phases of satisfying a customer's demand. The model is able to successfully describe and provide a basis for supply chain improvement. In this paper, we review the SCOR model, the present status of the Korean defense logistics system, and suggest an application of the model for the integrated defense logistics system.