• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand sensitivity

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Development of Performance Simulation Models for MGT (마이크로 가스터빈(MGT) 성능 시뮬레이션 모델 개발)

  • Hur, Kwang-Beom;Park, Jung-Keuk;Rhim, Sang-Kyu;Kim, Jae-Hoon
    • The KSFM Journal of Fluid Machinery
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.52-62
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    • 2008
  • All forecasts of a future energy demand anticipate an increase across the globe. With the increase of energy demand, the emission of $CO_2$ is also likely to increase by at least the same amount because energy supply will be based on fossil fuels, which is more apparent in a number of developing countries. In this context, the Micro Gas Turbine (MGT) is being considered as a promising solution. In order to propose a feasible concept of those technologies such as improving environmental effect and economics, we performed a sensitivity study for a biomass fueled MGT using a simulation model. The study consists of 1) the fundamental modeling using manufacturer's technical specifications, 2) the correction with the experimental data, and 3) the sensitivity study for system parameters. The simulation model was developed by PEPSE-GT 72, commercial steam/gas turbine simulation toolbox.

Application of Risk Management to Forecasting Transportation Demand by Delphi Technique (Delphi기법을 통한 교통수요예측 Risk Management 적용 방안)

  • Chung, Sung-Bong
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.267-273
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    • 2011
  • Since 'The Act on Private Investment of The Infrastructure' was established in 1994, private investment as well as government's investment in transport infrastructure has been active. However investment in transport infrastructure has more risks than others' due to uncertainty both in traffic volume and in construction cost. In the current appraisal procedure of deciding transportation infrastructure investment, instead of risk management, the sensitivity analysis considering only the changes of benefit, cost and social discount rate which are main factor affecting economic feasibility is carried out. Therefore the uncertainty of various factors affecting demand, cost and benefit are not considered in feasibility study. In this study the problems in current investment appraisal system were reviewed. Using Delphi technique the major factors which have high uncertainty in feasibility study were surveyed and then improvement plan was suggested in the respective of classic 4 step demand forecasting method. The range estimation technique was also mentioned to deal with the uncertainty of the future.

Sensitivity analysis of the transportation problem (수송문제의 감도분석)

  • 정호연;박순달
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 1994
  • The purpose of this study is to extend the current sensitivity analysis of the transportation problem. In this paper we present a systematic method to obtain the variation range of supplies or demands by introducing a dummy column or dummy row. By using this approach we can deal with the case of fixed demands, and the unbalanced problem that the total demand is greater than the total supply.

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DEVELOPMENT OF A MAXIMUM DEMAND CONTROLLER USING FUZZY LOGIC (퍼지로직 알고리즘을 이용한 최대수요전력 제어기의 개발)

  • Han, Hong-Seok;Chung, Kee-Chul;Seong, Ki-Chul;Yoon, Sang-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1996.07b
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    • pp.778-780
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    • 1996
  • The predictive maximum demand controllers often bring about large number of control actions during the every integrating period and/or undesirable load-disconnecting operations during the begining stage if the integrating period. To solve these problems, a fuzzy predictive maximum demand control algorithm is proposed, which determines the sensitivity if control action by urgency if the load interrupting action along with the predicted demand reading to the target or the time arriving at the end stage if the integrating period. A prototype controller employing the proposed algorithm also is developed and its performances are tested by PROCOM SYSTEMS Corperation of Korea.

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Improvement of Variable Renewable Energy Penetration of Stand-Alone Microgrid Hosting Capacity by Using Energy-Storage-System Based on Power Sensitivity

  • CHOI, DongHee
    • Journal of Advanced Information Technology and Convergence
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.91-101
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    • 2020
  • Recently, the demand for high penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration in a power system is increased. In consequence, distribution systems including microgrids confront the increased installation of VRE-based distributed generation. Despite of the high demand of VRE-based distributed generation in a distribution system, the installation of photovoltaic (PV) system in a distribution system has been restricted by various problems. In other words, the hosting capacity for high VRE penetration in a distribution system is limited. This paper analyzes the improvements of hosting capacity VRE penetration of stand-alone microgrid (SAMG) with energy storage system (ESS) by considering virtual-slack (VS) control based on power sensitivity. With the pre-defined power sensitivity, the ESS operates as virtual slack in the SAMG by controlling its bus voltage and phase angle indirectly. Therefore, the ESS enables the increase of VRE penetration in the SAMG. The proposed VS control is realized by analyzing the ESS as a virtual slack in power flow analysis based on power sensitivity. Then its validity is demonstrated with the case study on the SAMG in South Korea with practical data.

The Impact of Foreign Exchange Rates on International Travel: The Case of South Korea

  • Lee, Jung-Wan
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.9
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    • pp.5-11
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    • 2012
  • Purpose - The objective of the paper is to explain both the price sensitivity of international tourists to South Korea and the price sensitivity of Korean tourists to international travel. The study examines long-run equilibrium relationships and Granger causal relationships between foreign exchange rates and inbound and outbound tourism demand in South Korea. Research design/ data / methodology - The study employs monthly time series data from January 1990 to September 2010. The paper examines the long-run equilibrium relationship using the Johansen cointegration test approach after unit root tests. The short-run Granger causality was tested using the vector error correction model with the Wald test. Results - Hypothesis 1 testing whether there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rates, inbound and outbound tourism demand is supported. Hypothesis 2 testing whether exchange rates lead to a change in touristarrivals and expenditure is not supported. Hypothesis 3 testing whether exchange rates lead to a change in tourist departures and expenditure is supported. Conclusions - The findings of this study show that the impacts of tourism price competitiveness are changing quite significantly with regard to destination competitiveness. In other words, the elasticity of tourism price over tourism demand has been moderated.

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A Study on Envelope Design Variables for Energy Conservation of General Hospital Ward Area by Sensitivity Analysis (민감도 분석을 통한 종합병원 병동부의 에너지 절감 외피 설계요소 도출)

  • Oh, Jihyun;Kwon, Soonjung;Kim, Sunsook
    • Journal of The Korea Institute of Healthcare Architecture
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: Since the large hospitals are one of the most intensive energy users among building types in Korea, it is important to investigate and apply appropriate energy conservation measures. There are many researches on energy conservation measures for HVAC system in hospitals, but only few useful guidelines for envelope design variables were existed. The building envelope is one of the important factors to building energy consumption and patients' comfort. The purpose of this study is to suggest the most influential envelope design variables for each end-use energy demand. Methods: 100 samples were generated by LHS(Latin Hypercube Sampling) method. After energy performance simulation, global sensitivity analysis was performed by the regression method. DesignBuilder, Simlab 2.2 and JEPlus were used in this process. Results: The most influencing variables are SHGC, SHGC and VT for heating, cooling, and lighting, respectively. However, the most influencing variable for total energy demand is WWR(Window to Wall Ratio). The analysis was conducted based on the coefficient of variance results. Implications: The six envelop design variables were ranked according to the end-use energy demand.

Sensitivity Analysis of Project Sequencing Problems

  • Lee, In-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.18-24
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    • 1988
  • We consider sensitivity analysis sequencing problems, in which sequence of a finite set of expansion projects is sought to meet a deterministic demand projection in minimum discounted cost. In particular, by characterizing the underlying network structure, we find analytically the sensitivity range for a project cost such that the optimal sequencing policy remains unchanged for any value in the range. A numerical example is presented.

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Supply Chain Coordination in 2-Stage-Ordering-Production System with Update of Demand Information

  • Kusukawa, Etsuko
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.304-318
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    • 2014
  • It is necessary for a retailer to improve responsiveness to uncertain customer demand in product sales. In order to solve this problem, this paper discusses an optimal operation for a 2-stage-ordering-production system consisting of a retailer and a manufacturer. First, based on the demand information estimated at first order time $t_1$, the retailer determines the optimal initial order quantity $Q^*_1$, the optimal advertising cost $a^*_1$ and the optimal retail price $p^*_1$ of a single product at $t_1$, and then the manufacturer produces $Q^*_1$. Next, the retailer updates the demand information at second order time $t_2$. If the retailer finds that $Q^*_1$ dissatisfies the demand indicated by the demand information updated at $t_2$, the retailer determines the optimal second order quantity $Q^*_2$ under $Q^*_1$ and adjusts optimally the advertising cost and the retail price to $a^*_2$ and $p^*_2$ at $t_2$. Here, decision-making approaches for two situations are made-a decentralized supply chain (DSC) whose objective is to maximize the retailer's profit and an integrated supply chain (ISC) whose objective is to maximize the whole system's profit. In the numerical analysis, the results of the optimal decisions under DSC are compared with those under ISC. In addition, supply chain coordination is discussed to adjust the unit wholesale price at each order time as Nash Bargaining solutions.

Evaluation of Tank Capacity of Rainwater Harvesting System to Secure Economic Feasibility and Sensitivity Analysis (경제성 확보를 위한 빗물이용시설의 규모 산정 및 민감도 분석)

  • Mun, Jung-Soo;Kim, Ha-Na;Park, Jong-Bin;Lee, Jung-Hun;Kim, Ree-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.191-199
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    • 2012
  • Rainwater harvesting systems (RWHS), one of measures for on site rainwater management, have been promoted by laws, regulations and guidelines and have been increased. However, more evaluation of economic feasibility on RWHS is still needed due to seasonal imbalance of rainfall and little experiences and analysis on design and operation of RWHS. In this study, we investigated tank capacity of RWHS to secure economic validity considering catchment area and water demand, which is affected by building scale. Moreover, sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the effect of design factors, cost items and increase rate of water service charge on economic feasibility. The BCR (benefit cost ratio) is proportional to the increase in tank capacity. It is increased steeply in small tank capacity due to the effect of cost and, since then, gently in middle and large tank capacity. In case of 0.05 in the rate of tank volume to catchment area and 0.005 in water demand to catchment area, BCR was over one from the tank capacity of 160 $m^{3}$ taking into account of private benefits and from the tank capacity of 100 $m^{3}$ taking into account of private and public benefits. Sensitivity analysis shows that increase of water demand can improve BCR values with little cost so that it is needed to extend application of rainwater use and select a proper range of design factor. Decrease of construction and maintenance cost reduced the tank volume to secure economic validity. Finally, increase rate of water service charge had considerable impact on economic feasibility.