• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand prediction algorithm

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Comparative Analysis for Real-Estate Price Index Prediction Models using Machine Learning Algorithms: LIME's Interpretability Evaluation (기계학습 알고리즘을 활용한 지역 별 아파트 실거래가격지수 예측모델 비교: LIME 해석력 검증)

  • Jo, Bo-Geun;Park, Kyung-Bae;Ha, Sung-Ho
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.119-144
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    • 2020
  • Purpose Real estate usually takes charge of the highest proportion of physical properties which individual, organizations, and government hold and instability of real estate market affects the economic condition seriously for each economic subject. Consequently, practices for predicting the real estate market have attention for various reasons, such as financial investment, administrative convenience, and wealth management. Additionally, development of machine learning algorithms and computing hardware enhances the expectation for more precise and useful prediction models in real estate market. Design/methodology/approach In response to the demand, this paper aims to provide a framework for forecasting the real estate market with machine learning algorithms. The framework consists of demonstrating the prediction efficiency of each machine learning algorithm, interpreting the interior feature effects of prediction model with a state-of-art algorithm, LIME(Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanation), and comparing the results in different cities. Findings This research could not only enhance the academic base for information system and real estate fields, but also resolve information asymmetry on real estate market among economic subjects. This research revealed that macroeconomic indicators, real estate-related indicators, and Google Trends search indexes can predict real-estate prices quite well.

A Study on Predicting the demand for Public Shared Bikes using linear Regression

  • HAN, Dong Hun;JUNG, Sang Woo
    • Korean Journal of Artificial Intelligence
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.27-32
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    • 2022
  • As the need for eco-friendly transportation increases due to the deepening climate crisis, many local governments in Korea are introducing shared bicycles. Due to anxiety about public transportation after COVID-19, bicycles have firmly established themselves as the axis of daily transportation. The use of shared bicycles is spread, and the demand for bicycles is increasing by rental offices, but there are operational and management difficulties because the demand is managed under a limited budget. And unfortunately, user behavior results in a spatial imbalance of the bike inventory over time. So, in order to easily operate the maintenance of shared bicycles in Seoul, bicycles should be prepared in large quantities at a time of high demand and withdrawn at a low time. Therefore, in this study, by using machine learning, the linear regression algorithm and MS Azure ML are used to predict and analyze when demand is high. As a result of the analysis, the demand for bicycles in 2018 is on the rise compared to 2017, and the demand is lower in winter than in spring, summer, and fall. It can be judged that this linear regression-based prediction can reduce maintenance and management costs in a shared society and increase user convenience. In a further study, we will focus on shared bike routes by using GPS tracking systems. Through the data found, the route used by most people will be analyzed to derive the optimal route when installing a bicycle-only road.

Local Repair Routing Algorithm using Link Breakage Prediction in Mobile Ad Hoc Networks (모바일 애드 혹 네트워크에서 링크 단절 예측을 사용한 지역 수정 라우팅 알고리즘)

  • Yoo, Dae-Hun;Choi, Woong-Chul
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.32 no.11A
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    • pp.1173-1181
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    • 2007
  • A number of routing algorithms have been studied for wireless mobile ad-hoc network. Among them, the AODV routing algorithm with on-demand method periodically transmits hello message and monitors link state during data transmission in order to maintain routing paths. When a path is disconnected, a node that senses it transmits a RERR packet to the transmitting node or transmits a RREQ locally so that the path could be repaired. With that, the control packet such as a RREQ is broadcast, which causes the consumption of bandwidth and incurs data latency. This paper proposes a LRRLBP algorithm that locally repairs a path by predicting link state before disconnecting the path based on the AODV routing protocol for solving such problems. Intensive simulations with the results using NS-2 simulator are shown for verifying the proposed protocol.

Prediction of pollution loads in agricultural reservoirs using LSTM algorithm: case study of reservoirs in Nonsan City

  • Heesung Lim;Hyunuk An;Gyeongsuk Choi;Jaenam Lee;Jongwon Do
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.193-202
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    • 2022
  • The recurrent neural network (RNN) algorithm has been widely used in water-related research areas, such as water level predictions and water quality predictions, due to its excellent time series learning capabilities. However, studies on water quality predictions using RNN algorithms are limited because of the scarcity of water quality data. Therefore, most previous studies related to water quality predictions were based on monthly predictions. In this study, the quality of the water in a reservoir in Nonsan, Chungcheongnam-do Republic of Korea was predicted using the RNN-LSTM algorithm. The study was conducted after constructing data that could then be, linearly interpolated as daily data. In this study, we attempt to predict the water quality on the 7th, 15th, 30th, 45th and 60th days instead of making daily predictions of water quality factors. For daily predictions, linear interpolated daily water quality data and daily weather data (rainfall, average temperature, and average wind speed) were used. The results of predicting water quality concentrations (chemical oxygen demand [COD], dissolved oxygen [DO], suspended solid [SS], total nitrogen [T-N], total phosphorus [TP]) through the LSTM algorithm indicated that the predictive value was high on the 7th and 15th days. In the 30th day predictions, the COD and DO items showed R2 that exceeded 0.6 at all points, whereas the SS, T-N, and T-P items showed differences depending on the factor being assessed. In the 45th day predictions, it was found that the accuracy of all water quality predictions except for the DO item was sharply lowered.

Use of the Moving Average of the Current Weather Data for the Solar Power Generation Amount Prediction (현재 기상 정보의 이동 평균을 사용한 태양광 발전량 예측)

  • Lee, Hyunjin
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.19 no.8
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    • pp.1530-1537
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    • 2016
  • Recently, solar power generation shows the significant growth in the renewable energy field. Using the short-term prediction, it is possible to control the electric power demand and the power generation plan of the auxiliary device. However, a short-term prediction can be used when you know the weather forecast. If it is not possible to use the weather forecast information because of disconnection of network at the island and the mountains or for security reasons, the accuracy of prediction is not good. Therefore, in this paper, we proposed a system capable of short-term prediction of solar power generation amount by using only the weather information that has been collected by oneself. We used temperature, humidity and insolation as weather information. We have applied a moving average to each information because they had a characteristic of time series. It was composed of min, max and average of each information, differences of mutual information and gradient of it. An artificial neural network, SVM and RBF Network model was used for the prediction algorithm and they were combined by Ensemble method. The results of this suggest that using a moving average during pre-processing and ensemble prediction models will maximize prediction accuracy.

Development of a Platform Using Big Data-Based Artificial Intelligence to Predict New Demand of Shipbuilding (선박 신수요 예측을 위한 빅데이터 기반 인공지능 알고리즘을 활용한 플랫폼 개발)

  • Lee, Sangwon;Jung, Inhwan
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.171-178
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    • 2019
  • Korea's shipbuilding industry is in a critical condition due to changes in the domestic and international environment. To overcome this crisis, preemptive development of products and technologies through prediction of new demand for ships is necessary. The goal of this research is to develop an artificial intelligence algorithm based on ship big data in order to predict new demand for ships. We intend to develop a big data analytics platform specialized in predicting ship demand and to utilize the forecast results of new ship demand through data analysis for planning/development of new products. By doing so, the development of sustainable new business models for equipment and equipment manufacturers will create new growth engines for shipyard and shipbuilders. Furthermore, it is expected that shipbuilders will be able to create business cases based on measurable performance, plan market-oriented products and services, and continuously achieve innovation that has high market destructive power.

A K-Means-Based Clustering Algorithm for Traffic Prediction in a Bike-Sharing System (공유자전거 시스템의 이용 예측을 위한 K-Means 기반의 군집 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Kyoungok;Lee, Chang Hwan
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.169-178
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    • 2021
  • Recently, a bike-sharing system (BSS) has become popular as a convenient "last mile" transportation. Rebalancing of bikes is a critical issue to manage BSS because the rents and returns of bikes are not balanced by stations and periods. For efficient and effective rebalancing, accurate traffic prediction is important. Recently, cluster-based traffic prediction has been utilized to enhance the accuracy of prediction at the station-level and the clustering step is very important in this approach. In this paper, we propose a k-means based clustering algorithm that overcomes the drawbacks of the existing clustering methods for BSS; indeterministic and hardly converged. By employing the centroid initialization and using the temporal proportion of the rents and returns of stations as an input for clustering, the proposed algorithm can be deterministic and fast.

Assessment of Transmission Losses with The 7th Basic Plan of Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand (7차 전력수급계획에 따른 송전계통 손실 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sung-Yul;Lee, Yeo-Jin
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers P
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    • v.67 no.2
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    • pp.112-118
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    • 2018
  • In recent years, decentralized power have been increasing due to environmental problems, liberalization of electricity markets and technological developments. These changes have led to the evolution of power generation, transmission, and distribution into discrete sectors and the division of integrated power systems. Therefore, studies are underway to efficiently supply power and reduce losses to each sector's demand. This is a major concern for system planners and operators, as it accounts for a relatively high proportion of total power, with a transmission and distribution loss of 4-6%. Therefore, this paper analyzes the status of loss management based on the current transmission and distribution loss rate of each country and transmission loss management cases of each national power company, and proposes a loss rate prediction algorithm according to the long-term transmission system plan. The proposed algorithm predicts the demand-based long-term evolution and the loss rate of the grid to which the transmission plan is applied.

A Comparative Analysis of Demand Forecast Monitoring Applications and the Web (수요예측 모니터링 애플리케이션과 웹의 사례 비교 분석)

  • Lee, Hyo-won;Im, So-Yeon;Lee, Young-woo;Park, Cheol-yoo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2022.10a
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    • pp.439-441
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    • 2022
  • This study compares the monitoring application for monitoring data predicted by the demand prediction algorithm and the web page of the construction site safety management system used by the power demand management application 'Hajumon' and U&E Communications. This study is two representative examples above, and it is possible to identify an appropriate application or web by comparing the difference between the web and the application's UI, advantages and disadvantages, and data supplementation.

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An Observation Supporting System for Predicting Citrus Fruit Production

  • Kang, Hee Joo;Yoo, Seung Tae;Yang, Young Jin
    • Agribusiness and Information Management
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study is to develop a growth prediction model that can predict growth and development information influencing the production of citrus fruits: the growth model algorithm that can predict floral leaf ratio, number of fruit sets, fruit width, and overweight depending on the main period of growth and development with consideration of the applied weather factors. Every year, large scale of manpower was mobilized to investigate the production of outdoor-grown citrus fruits, but it was limited to recycling the data without an observation supporting system to systemize the database. This study intends to create a systematical database based on the basic data obtained through the observation supporting system in application of an algorithm according to the accumulated long term data and prepare a base for its continuous improvement and development. The importance of the observed data is increasingly recognized every year, and the citrus fruit observation supporting system is important for utilizing an effective policy and decision making according to various applications and analysis results through an interconnection and an integration of the investigated statistical data. The citrus fruit is a representative crop having a great ripple effect in Jeju agriculture. An early prediction of the growth and development information influencing the production of citrus fruits may be helpful for decision making in supply and demand control of agricultural products.