• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.50 no.4
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• pp.629-643
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• 2023

The purpose of this study was to examine the effectiveness and efficiency of a policy by comparing and analyzing the impact of the rice market isolation system and production adjustment system (strategic crops direct payment system that induces the cultivation of other crops instead of rice) on rice supply, rice price, and government's financial expenditure. To achieve this purpose, a rice supply and demand forecasting and policy simulation model was developed in this study using a partial equilibrium model limited to a single item (rice), a dynamic equation model system, and a structural equation system that reflects the casual relationship between variables with economic theory. The rice policy analysis model used a recursive model and not a simultaneous equation model. The policy is distinct from that of previous studies, in which changes in government's policy affected the price of rice during harvest and the lean season before the next harvest, and price changes affected the supply and demand of rice according to the modeling, that is, a more specific policy effect analysis. The analysis showed that the market isolation system increased government's financial expenditure compared to the production adjustment system, suggesting low policy financial efficiency, low policy effectiveness on target, and increased harvest price. In particular, the market isolation system temporarily increased the price during harvest season but decreased the price during the lean season due to an increase in ending stock caused by increased production and government stock. Therefore, a decrease in price during the lean season may decrease annual farm-gate prices, and the reverse seasonal amplitude is expected to intensify.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.1-23
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• 2014

Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models' predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an $N{\times}N$ map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.7-12
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• 2014

This paper suggest mandatory target predestinator of natural gas wholesale and retail provider will set appropriate target. To analysis natural gas energy saving trend forecast, reduce natural gas forecast and using technology and forecast analysis for equipment is draw based on result of developing tool that more detailed gas field. Also this paper calculate effect on energy saving through various scenarios, efficiency consideration of gas equipment and subsidy condition.

• Journal of the Korean housing association
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.1-10
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• 2014

In the upcoming 21st century, we predict change and development in various aspects. Some fundamental causes of change in housing lifestyles such as the change in family make-up are gradually becoming more and more realistic problems as the society is shifting to the younger generation family make up refer to the rapid increase of the agedpopulation, growth of single households, the drop in the number of family members, the change in the economic situation and technology level, and change in values. The purpose of this research is to, more away from the standardized supply of housing and to approach apartment housing plans in multilateral aspects, compare and analyze the difference between the housing demands of different generations and the influence that the current housing type has on demand forecasting by case studies of Unit Living Space planning that we will utilize the participating design method in which parents and children took part in.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.59-66
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• 2002

The vertically integrated power industry was divided into six generation companies and one market operator, where electricity trading was launched at power exchange. In this environment, the profits of each generation companies are guaranteed according to utilizing strategies of their own generation equipments. This paper presents on generator maintenance scheduling and efficient bidding strategies for generation equipments through the calculation of the contract and the application of each generator cost function based on the past demand forecasting error and market operating data.

• Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
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• 1997.12a
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• pp.177-196
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• 1997

The engineering industry plays an important role for national competitive, since it has an high impact on other industries. With its importance, the engineering industry development largely depends on its technical manpower ather than capital factor. This study aims at estimating the additional requirement on technical manpower based on the forecasted market size which represents the structure change corresponding to economic growth in related industry. Research scope includes the twelve of fifteen field except three with insufficient historical data and technical manpower above bachelor degree. Specialty, we forecast market size with determinants resulted from historical data analysis on each field. The demand on technical manpower is derived from the forecasted market. We also estimate an additional requirement with the supply analysis. The research results show different patterns over time period. The relative ratio on chemical and construction to total market will steadily grow over short term, while applied, environment, electronic and information will rapidly grow This pattern will be stabilized over mid or long term. The additional requirement on technical manpower represents the similar pattern to market growth. The research result implies manpower policy for having high inflow of technical engineer from educational institute and the related industries through the image improvement.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers P
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• v.64 no.4
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• pp.199-206
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• 2015

A rising attention is paid to the railway system in many countries. KOREA is also of the opinion that the railway has to play a more important role in the near future to face up to the problems that increase gradually in the transport sector. To attract more traffic to the rail networks, it is important for rail modes to have running time competitiveness. Tilting trains, where it is possible to tilt the car-body towards the center of the curve, are a less expensive alternative to shorten travelling times on existing lines. Running time for tilting train is one of the most important factors, with which passenger demand forecasting or economic feasibility analysis will be done. This paper evaluates the speed limitation of tilting train around curves and also presents calculation process of its simulated possible running time. Then the adequacy of estimated time is verified with running time for Korean protype tilting train TTX (Tilting Train eXpress) by actual test run. As a case study, the estimated running time for the production version of tilting train and its time saving are presented compared with 2012's conventional Saemaul trains and non-tilting trains on the Gyeongbu line in the Korean rail network.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.34 no.7
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• pp.587-594
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• 2010

The positive and negative opinion to cargo demand of Incheon's SAMT in the near future remains cloudy. Considering port and shipping environmental changes and the logistics situation of China which explains the lack of facilities in Chinese airports, the creating of SAMT cargoes of the Incheon region could catches a favorable opportunity to be a logistics hub in the North-East Asia. On the other hand, as open-sky policy and direct-call service has been carried out between China and N.A.(North America), Incheon could cause a loss of competitiveness in SAMT because the enhancement in the aspect of the connectivity of Chinese airlines and shipping lines makes customer sent to last destination their cargoes whenever they want. In the same context, this paper analyses on conditions of domestic and international SAMT and proposes in this uncertainty future forecasting of SAMT of Incheon by scenario planning according to changes in integrated SAMT, measuring the likelihood of final scenario. This study shows the Sea & Air multi-transport volume will have either slight increase or decrease from the current condition. Consequently, RFS expansion and system & service improvement through strong ties with major cities in China will be required in a short run aspect. Nonetheless, we also need to take domestic & international transportation environment into account in the long run.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.229-236
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• 2017

Technology foresight is the process which investigate long term science, technology, economic and social effects to derive strategic R&D and future promising technologies. This study shows that new systematic framework based on technology classifications of space and action in human society, future six senses was employed as a new research method for effective process of future technology foresight. In addition, to increase the acceptance, forecasting, and uniqueness of new technology, we derived major issues of future society and demand-base products and services through the new process of ICT future mega trend analysis, the findings and selections of future technology, and future scenario based on human six senses.

• Journal of Satellite, Information and Communications
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.113-116
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• 2015

The electric utility has the responsibility of reducing the impact of peaks on electricity demand and related costs. Therefore, they have introduced Direct Load Control System (DLCS) to automate the external control of shedding customer load that it controls. The existing DLCS have been operated only depend on On/Off signal from the electric utility. That kind of DLCS operating has been successfully used until now. But since the number of customer load participating in the DLC program are keep increasing, On/Off signal control from the electric utility is no longer meets the needs of many different kind of customers. Therefore, In this paper, the author suggest the design of direct load control system using weather sensors to meet the diversity of different customer needs.