• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.63-72
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• 2012

The Korean telecommunications market has been expanding swiftly, these days, to be saturated. In this environment, the upcoming mobile telecommunication market, where 4G service was introduced this year, is becoming more substitutive and competitive. Thus, the demand forecasting of 4G service is very difficult, while it is critical to market success. This paper adopts a multi-generation diffusion model to capture the diffusion and substitution patterns for two successive generation of technological services, i.e., 3G and 4G mobile telecommunications services. The three parameters, i.e., the coefficient of innovation, the coefficient of imitation, and the coefficient of market potential, used in the multi-generation diffusion model based on Norton and Bass[11] are obtained by inference from similar substitutive relations between older and newer telecommunication services to 3G and 4G services. The simulation results show that the Bass type multi-generation model can be successfully applied to the demand forecasting of newly introduced 4G mobile telecommunication service.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.179-196
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• 2021

Port congestion rate at Busan Port has increased for three years. Port congestion causes container reconditioning, which increases the dockyard labor's work intensity and ship owner's waiting time. If congestion is prolonged, it can cause a drop in port service levels. Therefore, this study proposed an anomaly detection method using ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model with the daily volume data from 2013 to 2020. Most of the research that predicts port volume is mainly focusing on long-term forecasting. Furthermore, studies suggesting methods to utilize demand forecasting in terms of port operations are hard to find. Therefore, this study proposes a way to use daily demand forecasting for port anomaly detection to solve the congestion problem at Busan port.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.42 no.3
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• pp.109-115
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• 2019

Most demand forecasting studies for telecommunication services have focused on estimating market size at the introductory stage of new products or services, or on suggesting improvement methods of forecasting models. Although such studies forecast business growth and market sizes through demand forecasting for new technologies and overall demands in markets, they have not suggested more specific information like relative market share, customers' preferences on technologies or service, and potential sales power. This study focuses on the telecommunication service industry and explores ways to calculate the relative market shares between competitors, considering competitive situations at the introductory stage of a new mobile telecommunication service provider. To reflect the competitive characteristics of the telecommunication markets, suggested is an extended conjoint analysis using service coverage and service switching rates as modification variables. This study is considered to be able to provide strategic implications to businesses offering existing service and ones planning to launch new services. The result of analysis shows that the new service provider has the greatest market share at the competitive situation where the new service covers the whole country, offers about 50% of existing service price, and allows all cellphones except a few while the existing service carrier maintains its price and service and has no response to the new service introduction. This means that the market share of the new service provider soars when it is highly competitive with fast network speed and low price.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.319-334
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• 2024

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine the gravity model commonly used for demand forecasting upon the implementation of new tourist facilities and analyze the main causation of forecasting errors to provide a suggestion on how to improve. Design/methodology/approach - This study first measured the errors in predicted values derived from past feasibility study reports by examining the cases of five national science museums. Next, to improve the predictive accuracy of the gravity model, the study identified the five most likely issues contributing to errors, applied modified values, and recalculated. The potential for improvement was then evaluated through a comparison of forecasting errors. Findings - First, among the five science museums with very similar characteristics, there was no clear indication of a decrease in the number of visitors to existing facilities due to the introduction of new facilities. Second, representing the attractiveness of tourist facilities using the facility size ratio can lead to significant prediction errors. Third, the impact of distance on demand can vary depending on the characteristics of the facility and the conditions of the area where the facility is located. Fourth, if the distance value is below 1, it is necessary to limit the range of that value to avoid having an excessively small value. Fifth, depending on the type of population data used, prediction results may vary, so it is necessary to use population data suitable for each latent market instead of simply using overall population data. Finally, if a clear trend is anticipated in a certain type of tourist behavior, incorporating this trend into the predicted values could help reduce prediction errors. Research implications or Originality - This study identified the key factors causing prediction errors by using national science museums as cases and proposed directions for improvement. Additionally, suggestions were made to apply the model more flexibly to enhance predictive accuracy. Since reducing prediction errors contributes to increased reliability of analytical results, the findings of this study are expected to contribute to policy decisions handled with more accurate information when running feasibility analyses.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2001.10a
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• pp.97.1-103
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• 2001

Railway passenger demand forecasts may be used directly, or as inputs to other optimization model which is use the demand forecasts to produce estimates of other activities. The optimization models require demand forecasts at the most detailed level. In this environment exponential smoothing forecasting methods such as Holt-Winters are appropriate because it is simple and inexpensive in terms of computation. There are several initialization methods for Holt-Winters Model. The purpose of this paper is to compare the initialization methods for Holt-Winters model.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.795-835
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• 2019

Big data has been generated in various fields. Many companies have now tried to make profits by building a system capable of analyzing big data based on artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. Integrating AI technology has made analyzing and utilizing vast amounts of data increasingly valuable. In particular, demand forecasting with maximum accuracy is critical to government and business management in various fields such as finance, procurement, production and marketing. In this case, it is important to apply an appropriate model that considers the demand pattern for each field. It is possible to analyze complex patterns of real data that can also be enlarged by a traditional time series model or regression model. However, choosing the right model among the various models is difficult without prior knowledge. Many studies based on AI techniques such as machine learning and deep learning have been proven to overcome these problems. In addition, demand forecasting through the analysis of stereotyped data and unstructured data of images or texts has also shown high accuracy. This paper introduces important areas where demand forecasts are relatively active as well as introduces machine learning and deep learning techniques that consider the characteristics of each field.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.1-13
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• 2023

This study forecasted the manpower demand of eco-friendly smart shipbuilding, whose importance and weight are increasing according to the environmental regulations of the IMO and the spread of the 4th industrial revolution technology. It predicted the shipbuilding industry manpower by applying various models of trend analysis and time series analysis based on data from 2000 to 2020 of Statistics Korea. It was found that the prediction applying geometric mean had the smallest gap among the trend and time series analysis methods in comparing between forecast results and actual data for the past 5 years. Therefore, the demand for manpower in the shipbuilding industry was predicted by using the geometric mean method. In addition, the manpower demand of smart eco-friendly ships wast forecasted by using the 2018 and 2020 manpower survey results of the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy and reflecting the trend of manpower increase in the shipbuilding industry. The result of forecasting showed that 62,001 person in 2025 and 85,035 people in 2030. This study is expected to contribute to the adjustment of manpower supply and demand and the training professional manpower in the future by increasing the accuracy of forecasting for high value-added eco-friendly smart ships.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.11-16
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• 1978

Bayesian procedures are in vogue to revise the parameter estimates of the forecasting model in the light of actual time series data. In this paper, we study the Bayes forecast for demand and the risk when (a) 'noise' and (b) mean demand rate in a constant process model have moderately non-normal probability distributions.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.13 no.21
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• pp.11-18
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• 1990

Because of the descent trend of the recent oil price and the ascent elements of the manufacturing price of public coal. the future demand of public coal is very obscured. In this paper, forecast the public coal demand by the regression analysis method reflected the policy and economic index of alternative energies.

• The Journal of Bigdata
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.17-27
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• 2020

District heating system supplies heat from low-cost high-efficiency heat production facilities to heat demand areas through a heat pipe network. For efficient heat supply system operation, it is important to accurately predict the heat demand within the region and optimize the heat production plan accordingly. In this study, a heat demand forecasting model is proposed considering real-time calorimeter information from local heat demands. Previous models considered ambient temperature and heat demand history data to predict future heat demands. To improve forecast accuracy, the proposed heat demand forecast model added big data from real-time calorimeters installed in the heat demands within the target region. By employing calorimeter information directly in the model, it is expected that the proposed forecast model is to reflect heat use pattern of each demand. Computational experiemtns based on the actual heat demand data shows that the forecast accuracy of the proposed model improved when the calorimeter big data is reflected.