• The Journal of Sustainable Design and Educational Environment Research
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.30-39
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• 2016

Students receiving plan is not based on short-term indicators, such as student-centered, student-induced factor to address school needs new complaint, it is necessary to establish the school in the center of a long-term (30 years) perspective. Therefore, analysis of Cheongju students can examine the entire 30 years of the elementary school in this study are as follows: First, given the increasing number of students in seven models and presented the case to its types. Second, considering the geographical characteristics and the development of regional characteristics classify 55 elementary Schools in Cheongju City by dividing the number of students increase or decrease trend to 10 zones the results are as follows: Students Number increasing school group of 4 schools, 15 schools students Number fell in shot Term, the Students Number dropped in middle Term 26 schools, 10 was a small school. In particular, it is urgently necessary to establish measures for these small schools. Third, despite the reduced number of students indicated in the analysis result, caused the social conflict factors by excessive new school requirements. It also caused a number of students from schools when the Curve of Students Number are to remain flat or decline. It shows that no additional new demand of School in the region. Fourth, the number of students increasing trend forecasting model

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.667-677
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• 2013

The introduction of a new transit facility affects mode share of travel alternatives. The multinomial logit model, which has been the most commonly used for estimating mode share, has difficulty in reflecting heterogeneity of travelers' choices, and it has a limitation on grasping their characteristics of mode choice. The limitation may lead to over- or under-estimation of the new transit facility and bring about significant social costs. This paper aims to find a methodology to overcome the problem of preference homogeneity. It also applies market segmentation structure of separating the whole population into direct and indirect beneficiary to consider their preference heterogeneity. A mode choice model is estimated on data from Jeju Province and statistically tested. The results show that mode transfer rate of direct beneficiaries that inhabit in downtown areas increases as the new transit facility provides more advanced services with higher costs. The results and the model suggested in this study can contribute to improving the accuracy of demand forecasting of new transit facilities by reflecting heterogeneity of mode-transfer patterns.

• The Journal of Natural Sciences
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.199-208
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• 1998

This study forecasts the trend of ethnic theme through market survey, concentrating on Los Angeles market. First, the background of ethnic theme was examined, and the present situation of shops, department sores, and headquarter was also surveyed. After that, fashion trend suitable for market was suggested by analyzing the life style of consumers through zip code. The results of the study are as follows. The conspicuous trend of '97 F/W retail stores is ethnic. This reaction to complicated modern life, and symbolizes the desirable evaluation on the simpleness of basic life and nature. The model of ethnic design is identified in natural clothing, primitive arts, ethnic culture and African theme. In short, this ethnic fashion is expressed as simpleness, naturalism convenience and freedom. On the other hand, the standard of general department stores such as Broadway and Robinson May which are the headquarter of this trend is to satisfy various consumers with various styles. Ethnic goods from Broadway has not arrived at the top for its introducing step. To elevate sales of these goods, promotion through VMD and suggesting various ethnic goods should be done. Besides, when analyzing the consumers of Beverly center Broadway, the target of these goods are mostly professional young people in their 25-34 and 35-44. The life style of these people emphasizes sophisticated life in aspects such as job-oriented activities, and up-to-date fashion. Especially, image is very important. They want individuality different from others. These images are diversified from simpleness, naiveness to sexy character. Accordingly, suggesting fashion trend satisfying the demand of consumers through market survey will make fashion market create infinite possibilities.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.262-269
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• 2016

Subway station scales are determined by peak predictions. In this study, the purpose behind the installation of a subway is public transportation convenience and public interest, but economic validity is also important. By proving that the scale of the station is excessive with regard to the target station size for Seoul subway Line 5-8, a reasonable plan. can be sought. According to station installation standards, the area of the station under investigation here is out of the service levels by six stages (A~F), and it must be four or more levels (D). The Actual level for the B level is a two-step design. The Actual ratio for over- Peak predictions is only 17.8% on average. The results of measurements of the excess area and determination of the excessive costs were analyzed by subdividing the area and by calculating it based on the B level, finding that it is possible to provide benefits for customers only in the current design, with an area ratio of 16.3%. Given the weight, it was estimated that current conditions can meet the needs of only 18.6% of the current area. Simplifying the scale calculation method of the station, it is convenient, safe, and advantageous to move citizens only if the scale can be streamlined. Then, with a reduced initial investment, maintenance costs during the operation can be reduced.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.83-92
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• 2014

This paper attempts to conduct a comparative analysis on the economic effects of integrated-energy and manufactured gas supply sectors. To this end, an input-output (I-O) analysis is applied using most recently published 2011 I-O table. In particular, the two sectors are specified as exogeneous to identify the economic effects on own and other sectors. Production-inducing effect, value-added creation effect, and employment-inducing effect are quantified based on demand-driven model. Supply shortage effect and price pervasive effect are analyzed employing supply-driven model and Leontief price model, respectively. The results show that production-inducing effect, value-added creation effect, and employment-inducing effect of integrated-energy and manufactured gas supply sectors are estimated to be 1.5461 vs. 1.0297, 0.4759 vs. 0.1941, and 2.2885 vs. 0.4053 respectively. Price pervasive effects of the 10% increase in integrated-energy and manufactured gas supply sectors are computed to be 0.0127% and 0.1585%, respectively. This information can be utilized in forecasting the economic effects of introducing integrated-energy or manufactured gas as a heating source and the impacts of a rise in price of integrated-energy or manufactured gas on price level of other sectors.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.15-22
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• 2003

In general, the linear regression model has been used to estimate trip generation in the travel demand forecasting procedure. However, the model suffers from several methodological limitations. First, trips as a dependent variable with non-negative integer show discrete distribution but the model assumes that the dependent variable is continuously distributed between -$\infty$ and +$\infty$. Second, the model may produce negative estimates. Third, even if estimated trips are within the valid range, the model offers only forecasted trips without discrete probability distribution of them. To overcome these limitations, a poisson model with a assumption of equidispersion has frequently been used to analyze count data such as trip frequencies. However, if the variance of data is greater than the mean. the poisson model tends to underestimate errors, resulting in unreliable estimates. Using overdispersion test, this study proved that the poisson model is not appropriate and by using Vuong test, zero inflated negative binomial model is optimal. Model reliability was checked by likelihood test and the accuracy of model by Theil inequality coefficient as well. Finally, marginal effect of the change of socio-demographic characteristics of households on trips was analyzed.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.37-47
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• 2013

This Study analyzed the electric car effect on the Korea Expressway System in terms of year 2020 $CO_2$ emission. The analysis was based on the green car dissemination goal by the government and year 2010 emission statistics. Major contents performed in the study area were as follows. First, the greenhouse gases emitted from the highways were found to be approximately 17.3 million tons of $CO_2$ as of 2010. Analysis showed the emission would be 17.4 million tons in 2015 and 16.2 million tons in 2020. The results in the pattern reflect the effect of O/D on the KTBD and the trend of traffic increase from 2015 to 2020 followed by decrease in 2020. Second, in the case of greenhouse gas emission with the anticipated supply of electric cars, the amount of emission in 2015 will be 17.1 million tons, which is about 2.0% reduction compared to the lack of introduction of electric cars. The analysis also showed that in 2020, the amount of emission will be 14.2 million tons, which indicates the effect of reduction is 12.8% compared to non implementation of the program.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.109-130
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• 2009

As recently the interest in the future industry grows high, the demand for forecasting the future shape of science and technology, especially exploring 'weak signals' of changes in science and technology, increases as well. The 'weak signals' means that currently they are uncertain and abnormal signals, but are preliminary signals which might lead future changes. Accordingly they can provide important clues to the future forecast. The study of 'weak signals' has its significance in providing important clues to the projection of the future technology earlier. As it has not a long history from its concept to exploration methods to utilization, more intensive study is required. Exploring 'weak signals' has been conducted mainly through the information analysis by experts with a high level of intelligence and sense. However, such an analysis is difficult and broad in scope, and furthermore the interpretation of analysis results is very limited, relying primarily on the decision of experts themselves. The purpose of this study is to provide a more objectified way to support these expert-based tasks. It derives quantitative results from non-structured article information and provides a logical basis for detecting the signals based on the results.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.294-294
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• 2019

The system for predicting flood of river at Flood Control Office is made up of a rainfall-runoff model and FLDWAV model. This system is mainly operating to predict the excess of the flood watch or warning level at flood forecast points. As the demand for information of the management and operation of riverside, which is being used as a waterfront area such as parks, camping sites, and bike paths, high-level forecasts of watch and warning at certain points are required as well as production of lowland flood forecast information that is used as a waterfront within the river. In this study, a technology to produce flood forecast information in lowland areas of the river used as a waterfront was developed. Based on the results of the 1D hydraulic analysis, a model for performing spatial operations based on high resolution grid was constructed. A model was constructed for Andong district, and the inundation conditions and level were analyzed through a virtual outflow scenarios of Andong and Imha Dam.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.123-133
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• 2016

LNG(Liquefied Natural Gas) bunkering has become an important issue with the enforcement of environment regulations in shipping industry required by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). With increased attention on LNG bunkering, many studies that focus on safety, regulation, demand forecasting, and the feasibility of LNG fueled ships have been carried out. However, most of the existing research has not included considerations of the price of LNG bunkering and its competitiveness. This paper, therefore, suggests ways to increase price competitiveness in the LNG bunkering market in the Busan Port. This paper analyzes the LNG bunkering supply mechanism by investigating various LNG bunkering terminal business in the LNG supply market. Factors that determine LNG bunkering price and its elasticity are also identified. Market players who want to operate LNG bunkering terminals in the Busan Port should introduce a merchandising trade method that is able to exclude the "Korea premium" in order to increase price competitiveness. This paper also suggests adoptable strategies such as the use of TPS (Terminal to Ship via Pipeline) type of bunkering service and the importance of location for minimizing initial investment cost.