• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.589-599
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• 2014

This paper analyzes the forecasting errors of traffic volumes by comparing forecasted volumes for the opening year with the observed ones in the years after the urban railway construction in the metropolitan areas. The result shows that the average inaccuracy of traffic volumes for each station was estimated at around 7.27. Based on the confirmed factors of demand estimation errors, this study seeks for an alternative method to reduce estimation errors in feasibility studies. It is noted that there is a tendency that the inaccuracy varies by regions and the longer construction period or the shorter station spacing is, the overestimation increases. If urban railway projects are proceeded as planed, therefore, the level of the inaccuracy for traffic volume forecast will be decreased. In addition, thanks to the theoretical progress, recent estimation results show higher accuracy than before. In that sense, when we introduce the new railway line, it is necessary to make an accurate and realistic demand forecast based on actual outcomes and tendency of the previous estimation. The limitation of our study is that we only cover the errors of the initial period, the opening year and deal with the exogenous variables. Further research including other variables which might be considered to cause overestimation or errors would be needed for increasing the estimation accuracy of traffic volumes.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.12 no.5
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• pp.1709-1718
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• 2017

This paper presents a hybrid stochastic deterministic multi-timescale scheduling (SDMS) approach for generation scheduling of a power grid. SDMS considers flexible resource options including conventional generation flexibility in a chance-constrained day-ahead scheduling optimization (DASO). The prime objective of the DASO is the minimization of the daily production cost in power systems with high penetration scenarios of variable generation. Furthermore, energy storage is scheduled in an hourly-ahead deterministic real-time scheduling optimization (RTSO). DASO simulation results are used as the base starting-point values in the hour-ahead online rolling RTSO with a 15-minute time interval. RTSO considers energy storage as another source of grid flexibility, to balance out the deviation between predicted and actual net load demand values. Numerical simulations, on the IEEE RTS test system with high wind penetration levels, indicate the effectiveness of the proposed SDMS framework for managing the grid flexibility to meet the net load demand, in both day-ahead and real-time timescales. Results also highlight the adequacy of the framework to adjust the scheduling, in real-time, to cope with large prediction errors of wind forecasting.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1999.07c
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• pp.1248-1252
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• 1999

To provide electricity power of good quality, it is essential to establish generation of electricity plan in electric power system based on accurate power-demand prediction and cope with changes of power-need fluctuating constantly. The role of hydraulic-power generation of electricity in electric power system is of importance because responding to electric power-demand counts or reservoir-type hydraulic-power generation of electricity which is designed for additional load in electric power system. So hydraulic-power generation of electricity must have fast start reserve. But the amount of water, resources of reservoir-type hydraulic-power generation of electricity is restricted and multi-used, so the scheduling of management by exact forecasting the amount of water is critical. That is why efficient hydraulic-power generation of electricity makes a main role on pumping up the utility of energy and water resource. This thesis introduced the example of optimal generation of electricity plan establishment which is used in managing reservoir-type hydraulic-power generation of electricity.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.117-129
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• 2009

The bullwhip effect is known as the significant factor which causes unnecessary inventory, lost sales or cost increase in supply chains. Therefore, the causes of the bullwhip effect must be examined and removed. In this paper, we develop two analytical tools for the bullwhip effect control in supply chains. First, we develop the quantitative models for computing the bullwhip effect in a three-stage supply chain consisted of a single retailer, a single distributor and a single manufacturer when the fixed-interval replenishment policy is applied at each stage. The quantitative models are developed under the different conditions for the demand forecasting and share of customer demand information. They are validated through the computational experiments. Second, we develop a simulation-based decision support system for the bullwhip effect control in a more diverse dynamic supply chain environment. The system includes a what-if analysis function to examine the effects of varying input parameters such as operating policies and costs on the bullwhip effect.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.127-135
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• 2009

It is necessary to forecast the amount of the maximum electricity demand for stabilizing the flow of electricity. The time series data was collected from the Korea Energy Research between January 2000 and December 2006. The data showed that they had a strong linear trend and seasonal change. Winters seasonal model, ARMA model were used to examine it. Root mean squared prediction error and mean absolute percentage prediction error were a criteria to select the best model. In addition, a nonstationary generalized extreme value distribution with explanatory variables was fitted to forecast the maximum electricity.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.383-392
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• 1990

This study found that that dynamics of intensity of use and economic theory of derived demand can both be accommodated through an extensive translog demand model. The basic idea in this recognition is that the skewed life cycle empirical pattern of intensity of use plotted against per capita income is of lognormal form and this lognomal intensity of use model can be mathematically transformed into an eqivalent simple translog intensity of use model. Empirical results showed that this extensive traslog model, which is a flexible function and includes both the classical case of fixed coefficients and the dynamic case of varying coefficients of the explanatory variables, gave better forecasts than the original intensity of use model and other conventional models.

• Journal of Fashion Business
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• v.3 no.4
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• pp.7-18
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• 1999

This study concerns the demand for Korean textile products in the USA, Japan, EU from 2000 to 2003. The result from the practice of study is as follows; The grand total export demand of textile product is estimated about U$7.2billion in 2000, U$8.5billion in 2003, and the annual growing rate is estimated 5.17%. The export of textile product to USA, Japan, EU, and other countries will be gradually increased from 2000 to 2003. Comparing to annual average export growing ratio, it is expected the ranks of annual average growing ratio as follows; The highest ratio is 8.35% in EU, the next 7.08% in other countries, 2.67% in Japan, and 2.51% in USA. It shows the change of the new countries to which our nation exports textile-products from the exportmarket structure of the present major export countries such as USA, Japan to EU and other nations. Also shows the same result in the export ratio by countries. The research predicts that the textile export portion will be decreased for our nation to USA and Japan while increased to EU and other countries.

• International Journal of Railway
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.139-143
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• 2012

In Korea, almost 700 industrial parks are under operation. Generally, industrial parks consist of national industrial parks and local industrial parks which are managed by a central government and by local governments respectively. The developing countries such as Korea, China and Vietnam etc. have constructed many industrial parks, which result in the change of land use pattern and also affect future trip demands. Therefore, in estimating traffic demands, it is very important to consider the industrial park development. This study aims to improve the methodology in estimating a freight trip generation rate with the data based on a nationwide commodity freight survey. The result showed that it is desirable to apply freight trip generation rate by the industry sector in estimating freight trip generations and using the production area of firm as an indicator. Specially, the reliability of the rates through a survey could be made sure because a sample rate based on firms in industrial parks was over 25% and the response rate was over 67%. The sample rate and response rate are very superior as compared to surveys conducted in many other countries. Because industrial parks have significant effects on forecasting transportation demand in pre-feasibility studies of transport and logistics projects, it is expected that the accuracy of freight trip demands would be improved through the results of this study.

• The Research Journal of the Costume Culture
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.64-71
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• 2019

Climate change and global warming are the biggest challenges of the current generation. Every industry has contributed to the climate change and global warming. Even the apparel industry cannot avoid the criticism regarding fast fashion and its contribution to the pollution. The transition to the decarbonized economy is in progress. All aspects of business functions are influenced by climate change. Sustainable development and climate change are closely linked, and business plays the key role in addressing and finding solutions to the challenges of climate change. Luxury brands are the trendsetters and tastemakers. They are the leaders in the fashion industry and therefore responsible for improving on sustainability as well. Even luxury business cannot avoid environmental issues. The relation between luxury and sustainability is explored with the Burberry case based on the Triple Bottom Line (TBL) framework. There are various ways for luxury brands to excel in sustainability and affect other companies' practices. The companies can incorporate the concept of sustainability in their brand stories as part of the branding process. They can also improve demand planning accuracy and produce upcycled goods. Centering on Burberry's case, this paper aims to explore the current sustainable practices of luxury business along with its future direction toward sustainable development. Its contribution and directions for both researchers and business practitioners are discussed.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.20 no.11
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• pp.109-120
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• 2022

Purpose: We would like to identify the appropriate size of stores in the commercial district suitable for the era of low growth. In addition, it is intended to present alternatives to prevent gentrification along with measures to revitalize commercial districts according to the selection of appropriate stores. Research design, data and methodology: The importance and commercial district usage patterns were identified through surveys by consumers and sellers. the demand and size of the commercial area were calculated based on the floating population and resident registration population. In addition, based on this, through metric analysis, the importance of the business district activation plan and what important matters can prevent gentrification were analyzed. Result: In this the study, 555 stores are currently operating in the target area, but it is seen as a commercial district with a scale that can operate 136 stores and 938 stores. In addition, it was analyzed that the Commercial Lease Protection Act needs to be strengthened to prevent gentrification. Conclusions: Due to the nature of small and medium-sized cities in Korea, commercial districts that have once lost their resilience must take much effort to find vitality. It is believed that local commercial districts will have resilience when diagnosis and recovery measures are adequately presented.