• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.65-81
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• 2018

This study estimated the long-run and the short-run price and income elasticity of crude oil demand by using the ARDL model in Korea. First, the long-run cointegration relationship existed between crude oil demand and price or income in the ARDL-bounds tests. Second, the long-run own price, the cross price elasticity and the income elasticity were both statistically significant elastic and sensitive in the ARDL. Third, there was autocorrelation of the residuals, but no misspecification errors and heteroscedasticity, and then the residuals showed a normal distribution. And the CUSUM & CUSUMSQ tests showed that the coefficients were stable. Fourth, the short-run own price, the cross price elasticity and the income elasticity were both statistically significant elastic and sensitive in the ARDL-RECM. The ECM with the short-run dynamics showed rapid adjustments in the long-run equilibrium of oil demand after the economic crisis. In the short-run, the sensitivity of crude oil demand to price and income changes has moved in the same direction as the long-run case. Korea, depending too much on foreign crude oil, is vulnerable to the shocks of oil prices, so rising oil prices can certainly have a negative impact on Korea's trade balance. And the elasticity of long-run oil prices may help to control and manage Korea's oil demand. The government needs to strengthen monitoring of the country's policies and market trends related to crude oil, establish strategies to customize national policies and market conditions, and strengthen active market dominance efforts through pioneering new market and diversification.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.146-163
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• 2021

Purpose - This paper examines China's impact on Korea's ICT exports considering the direct competition channel, the production shift channel, and the indirect demand channel at once. This paper also takes China's economic rebalancing into account and discusses whether it makes any differences in the effect of the three channels. Design/methodology - To quantify the effect of the three channels, I constructed a linear panel regression model and estimated it with various estimation methods including the system GMM. China's exports toward the same destination as Korea's exports, Korea's exports toward China, and the third countries' exports toward China respectively reflect the three channels. China's GVC indicators are included as well to evaluate the effect of further China's economic rebalancing. Since the present paper has a greater interest in the effect of China rather than the determinant of bilateral trade, a (fixed effect) panel model becomes more appropriate than the gravity model because timeinvariant variables in the gravity model, such as the distance and the language, are eliminated during the estimation process. Findings - The estimation results indicate that Chinese ICT exports are complementary to Korea's ICT exports in general. However, when markets are considered in subgroups, China's ICT exports could have a negative effect in the long run, especially for SITC75 and SITC76 markets, implying a possible competitive threat of China. The production shift effect turns significant during China's economic rebalancing in the markets for the advanced economies and the SITC76 product. China's indirect demand channel is also in effect significantly for the advanced economy and SITC75 commodities during China's economic rebalancing periods. In addition, this paper shows that China's transition toward upstream in the global value chain could have a positive impact on Korea's ICT exports, especially at the Asian market. Originality/value - The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, it focuses on the ICT industry for which Korea increasingly depends on China and China becomes a global hub of the GVC. Second, this paper quantitatively studies three channels in a model in contrast to the literature which mostly examines those channels separately and pays less attention to the GVC aspect. Third, by utilizing relatively recent data from the period of 2001-2017, this paper discusses whether China's economic rebalancing affects the three channels.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.3 no.4
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• pp.17-24
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• 2016

The purpose of this paper is to understand the underlying dynamics for the share market bubbles in China during the most recent decade. By using the behavioral finance theory and the Shanghai Composite index prices during the periods from 2005 to 2008 and from 2014 to 2015 as the study samples, we find that the large volatilities in the Chinese share market are closely related to information blockage, which impedes share prices to timely respond to economic conditions as well as external shocks and increases (decreases) the demand of shares when the supply is difficult to adjust. Although the Chinese government has introduced a series of programs designed to increase more reliable information to the public, the share market still tends to confront issues of information asymmetry. The potential reason is that the reforms did not change the long-stand situation in China, where individuals or groups related to government bureaucracy who play a dominant role in the society are given priority to gain access and obtain information that benefits. By identifying the main reasons for the large volatilities in the market, policy makers are given advice as to which areas they may need to focus on to improve future market performance.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.55-73
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• 2018

The substantial slowdown of economic growth since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 is rekindling debate on whether developing Asia should use fiscal expansion to boost aggregate demand. A key factor in the debate is the effectiveness of countercyclical fiscal policy in the region. The global crisis, as well as the fiscal stimulus packages implemented by developing Asian countries at that time, give some clues to this important issue. The region weathered the global crisis well and experienced a robust V-shaped recovery. According to conventional wisdom, the fiscal stimulus packages put in place by Asian governments played a key role in the region's recovery. The central objective of this paper is to empirically test this wisdom by using cross-country panel data. Our main finding is that the stimulus has had a limited but positive impact on developing Asia's output during the global crisis. This lends some support to the notion that countercyclical fiscal policy can help the region cope with severe external shocks. The broader, more fundamental implication for regional policymakers is that the region's long-standing commitment to fiscal discipline can yield significant benefits beyond macroeconomic stability. An important consequence of this commitment - relatively healthy fiscal balance sheets - enabled the region's governments to quickly and decisively embark upon fiscal stimulus programs.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.133-154
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• 2022

The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI), which is used as an indicator for marine transportation of steel raw materials, is one of the key economic indexes for managing the risk of loss due to rapid market fluctuations when steel companies establish business strategies and procuring plans for raw materials. Still, the conditions of supply and demand of steel raw materials has been extremely affected by volatility shocks from drastic events like the financial crisis such as the Lehman Brothers incident and changes in the external environment such as COVID-19. And, especially since the 2008 financial crisis, endeavors to predict the market conditions of the steel raw material is becoming more and more arduous for the deepening uncertainty and increased volatility of BCI, which has been used as a leading indicator of the real economy. This study investigates the correlation between the steel raw material market and the marine transportation market by estimating the spillover effect of information between markets. The vector error correction model (VECM) was used to analyze information transfer based on the correlation between the BCI and crude steel production, capesize fleet supply, raw material price, and cargo volume.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.81-92
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• 2017

This study was to investigate the elasticity in tourism demand of Chinese tourists visiting Malaysia through ARDL models by using Chinese tourists arrivals, GDP, CPI, transportation costs and others. When China was implementing an open-door policy with foreign countries in the early 15th century, the movement of Chinese was very limited, and then communication between China and other countries was very weak. However, the Chinese government persistently and entirely implemented an open-door policy by participating in the World Trade Organization(WTO) in 2001. The Chinese government has opened the economy through foreign direct investment by providing various incentives for foreign investment. As a result, inbound and outbound Chinese movements increased in the early 21st century. China was one of the top five most visited tourist destinations in the world by 2016, and also Chinese tourists traveling abroad increased, so they made Malaysia a popular tourists destination because of increase sharply to around 1.41 million. This study examined the significance of major economic factors affecting the increase in Chinese tourists arriving in Malaysia. Other factors that induced their arrival included income, tourism prices, transportation costs and promotional activities. Short-run shocks from the Asian economic crisis and the outbreak of SARS were included to understand how tourism demand in Malaysia was affected. Finally this study found that the combination of the ARDL and the Error Correction Model were useful to statistically estimate the elasticities of tourism demand.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.145-152
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• 2008

Approaching to the era of high energy price and energy sources scarcity, the demand for governmental intervention to mitigate the short-term shocks is highly increasing. When any energy policy is implemented, double-side effects would be derived. To begin with positive aspect, by decreasing energy import, unnecessary currency outflow can be prevented and the resultant saved money will be appropriately allocated. Furthermore, industrial competitiveness will be assured by reducing use of expensive energy. On the contrary, inappropriate energy saving policy may lead to unexpected negative effects that would hinder improvement in productivity due to indiscreet replacing energy by equipments. In order to enhance effectiveness of energy policy, efforts should be made in advance to understand the energy use pattern of each industry sector which composes the economy. Therefore, in this study, an energy input-output method, one of the macroscopic approaches, is applied to analyze energy use patterns of each industry sector in Korea. Using this method, a quantitative assessment is performed to obtain the energy use intensity and the amount of energy uses with respect to energy types.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.64-73
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• 2011

Oil price prediction is an important issue for the regulators of the government and the related industries. When employing the time series techniques for prediction, however, it becomes difficult and challenging since the behavior of the series of oil prices is dominated by quantitatively unexplained irregular external factors, e.g., supply- or demand-side shocks, political conflicts specific to events in the Middle East, and direct or indirect influences from other global economical indices, etc. Identifying and quantifying the relationship between oil price and those external factors may provide more relevant prediction than attempting to unclose the underlying structure of the series itself. Technically, this implies the prediction is to be based on the vectoral data on the degrees of the relationship rather than the series data. This paper proposes a novel method for time series prediction of using Semi-Supervised Learning that was originally designed only for the vector types of data. First, several time series of oil prices and other economical indices are transformed into the multiple dimensional vectors by the various types of technical indicators and the diverse combination of the indicator-specific hyper-parameters. Then, to avoid the curse of dimensionality and redundancy among the dimensions, the wellknown feature extraction techniques, PCA and NLPCA, are employed. With the extracted features, a timepointspecific similarity matrix of oil prices and other economical indices is built and finally, Semi-Supervised Learning generates one-timepoint-ahead prediction. The series of crude oil prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was used to verify the proposed method, and the experiments showed promising results : 0.86 of the average AUC.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.27-38
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• 2011

The paper aims at examining the behavioral characteristics of the passenger car export of Gunsan, Pyeongtaek, and Ulsan port. This is accomplished by modelling export demand as exchange rate and the Unites States industrial production. All series span the period January 2001 to December 2010. I first show that both the series and the residuals are stationary at the 5 percent significance level. The result cannot reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in each of the level variables and of a unit root for the residuals from the cointegration regression at the 5 percent significance level. I hitherto make use of forecast error decomposition and historical decompositions The forecast error decomposition indicates that car export is endogenous to industrial production and exchange rate. The historical decompositions for the export show that the entire difference between actual export and the base forecast can be attributed to industrial production shocks since exchange rate moves closer to the actual data or the base forecast. It indicates that industrial production outperforms exchange rate in explaining the passenger car exports.

• Human Ecology Research
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• v.56 no.3
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• pp.233-246
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• 2018

Korean society is experiencing an increase in multicultural families and single households. The incidence of the MERS, epidemic in 2015, and the subsequent cases of child abuse have been major shocks to Korean society. In addition, there has been a steady increase in household debt, that is in danger of causing a serious crisis in the stability of our society and the family. The current demand for increased accountability in the democratic process is becoming an important topic. There is also an increased awareness of natural disaster preparation due to local earthquakes that have caused concern. At this point, the lifelong education in the home economics education field in Korea is in line with the changes and crises of various societies. Problems related to family life that have happened in the real life of learners stand in the place of the study with preventive character. It should provide the best alternative for family, home, and society, and help to overcome the problems of life. In order for lifelong education to respond to these social changes $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ Home Economics Education, it is necessary to develop: 'formation and improvement education of family relationship', 'crisis prevention and management coping ability training', 'safety education', 'learning communication and consensus processes', 'consumer culture education', 'ethics education on environment and resources', 'sustainability education', 'local education of family relationship', 'crisis prevention and management coping ability training', 'safety education', 'learning communication and consensus processes', 'consumer culture education', 'ethics education on environment and resources', 'sustainability education', 'local economic activation education', and other topics of lifelong education topics related to the field of Home Economics Education are required. Consequently, various related programs should be further developed and disseminated.