• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand Pattern

Search Result 696, Processing Time 0.031 seconds

An Intervention Study on Integration of Family Planning and Maternal/Infant Care Services in Rural Korea (가족계획과 모자보건 통합을 위한 조산원의 투입효과 분석 -서산지역의 개입연구 평가보고-)

  • Bang, Sook;Han, Seung-Hyun;Lee, Chung-Ja;Ahn, Moon-Young;Lee, In-Sook;Kim, Eun-Shil;Kim, Chong-Ho
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
    • /
    • v.20 no.1 s.21
    • /
    • pp.165-203
    • /
    • 1987
  • This project was a service-cum-research effort with a quasi-experimental study design to examine the health benefits of an integrated Family Planning (FP)/Maternal & Child health (MCH) Service approach that provides crucial factors missing in the present on-going programs. The specific objectives were: 1) To test the effectiveness of trained nurse/midwives (MW) assigned as change agents in the Health Sub-Center (HSC) to bring about the changes in the eight FP/MCH indicators, namely; (i)FP/MCH contacts between field workers and their clients (ii) the use of effective FP methods, (iii) the inter-birth interval and/or open interval, (iv) prenatal care by medically qualified personnel, (v) medically supervised deliveries, (vi) the rate of induced abortion, (vii) maternal and infant morbidity, and (viii) preinatal & infant mortality. 2) To measure the integrative linkage (contacts) between MW & HSC workers and between HSC and clients. 3) To examine the organizational or administrative factors influencing integrative linkage between health workers. Study design; The above objectives called for quasi-experimental design setting up a study and control area with and without a midwife. An active intervention program (FP/MCH minimum 'package' program) was conducted for a 2 year period from June 1982-July 1984 in Seosan County and 'before and after' surveys were conducted to measure the change. Service input; This study was undertaken by the Soonchunhyang University in collaboration with WHO. After a baseline survery in 1981, trained nurses/midwives were introduced into two health sub-centers in a rural setting (Seosan county) for a 2 year period from 1982 to 1984. A major service input was the establishment of midwifery services in the existing health delivery system with emphasis on nurse/midwife's role as the link between health workers (nurse aids) and village health workers, and the referral of risk patients to the private physician (OBGY specialist). An evaluation survey was made in August 1984 to assess the effectiveness of this alternative integrated approach in the study areas in comparison with the control area which had normal government services. Method of evaluation; a. In this study, the primary objective was first to examine to what extent the FP/MCH package program brought about changes in the pre-determined eight indicators (outcome and impact measures) and the following relationship was first analyzed; b. Nevertheless, this project did not automatically accept the assumption that if two or more activities were integrated, the results would automatically be better than a non-integrated or categorical program. There is a need to assess the 'integration process' itself within the package program. The process of integration was measured in terms of interactive linkages, or the quantity & quality of contacts between workers & clients and among workers. Intergrative linkages were hypothesized to be influenced by organizational factors at the HSC clinic level including HSC goals, sltrurture, authority, leadership style, resources, and personal characteristics of HSC staff. The extent or degree of integration, as measured by the intensity of integrative linkages, was in turn presumed to influence programme performance. Thus as indicated diagrammatically below, organizational factors constituted the independent variables, integration as the intervening variable and programme performance with respect to family planning and health services as the dependent variable: Concerning organizational factors, however, due to the limited number of HSCs (2 in the study area and 3 in the control area), they were studied by participatory observation of an anthropologist who was independent of the project. In this observation, we examined whether the assumed integration process actually occurred or not. If not, what were the constraints in producing an effective integration process. Summary of Findings; A) Program effects and impact 1. Effects on FP use: During this 2 year action period, FP acceptance increased from 58% in 1981 to 78% in 1984 in both the study and control areas. This increase in both areas was mainly due to the new family planning campaign driven by the Government for the same study period. Therefore, there was no increment of FP acceptance rate due to additional input of MW to the on-going FP program. But in the study area, quality aspects of FP were somewhat improved, having a better continuation rate of IUDs & pills and more use of effective Contraceptive methods in comparison with the control area. 2. Effects of use of MCH services: Between the study and control areas, however, there was a significant difference in maternal and child health care. For example, the coverage of prenatal care was increased from 53% for 1981 birth cohort to 75% for 1984 birth cohort in the study area. In the control area, the same increased from 41% (1981) to 65% (1984). It is noteworthy that almost two thirds of the recent birth cohort received prenatal care even in the control area, indicating that there is a growing demand of MCH care as the size of family norm becomes smaller 3. There has been a substantive increase in delivery care by medical professions in the study area, with an annual increase rate of 10% due to midwives input in the study areas. The project had about two times greater effect on postnatal care (68% vs. 33%) at delivery care(45.2% vs. 26.1%). 4. The study area had better reproductive efficiency (wanted pregancies with FP practice & healthy live births survived by one year old) than the control area, especially among women under 30 (14.1% vs. 9.6%). The proportion of women who preferred the 1st trimester for their first prenatal care rose significantly in the study area as compared to the control area (24% vs 13%). B) Effects on Interactive Linkage 1. This project made a contribution in making several useful steps in the direction of service integration, namely; i) The health workers have become familiar with procedures on how to work together with each other (especially with a midwife) in carrying out their work in FP/MCH and, ii) The health workers have gotten a feeling of the usefulness of family health records (statistical integration) in identifying targets in their own work and their usefulness in caring for family health. 2. On the other hand, because of a lack of required organizational factors, complete linkage was not obtained as the project intended. i) In regards to the government health worker's activities in terms of home visiting there was not much difference between the study & control areas though the MW did more home visiting than Government health workers. ii) In assessing the service performance of MW & health workers, the midwives balanced their workload between 40% FP, 40% MCH & 20% other activities (mainly immunization). However, $85{\sim}90%$ of the services provided by the health workers were other than FP/MCH, mainly for immunizations such as the encephalitis campaign. In the control area, a similar pattern was observed. Over 75% of their service was other than FP/MCH. Therefore, the pattern shows the health workers are a long way from becoming multipurpose workers even though the government is pushing in this direction. 3. Villagers were much more likely to visit the health sub-center clinic in the study area than in the control area (58% vs.31%) and for more combined care (45% vs.23%). C) Organization factors (admistrative integrative issues) 1. When MW (new workers with higher qualification) were introduced to HSC, it was noted that there were conflicts between the existing HSC workers (Nurse aids with less qualification than MW) and the MW for the beginning period of the project. The cause of the conflict was studied by an anthropologist and it was pointed out that these functional integration problems stemmed from the structural inadequacies of the health subcenter organization as indicated below; i) There is still no general consensus about the objectives and goals of the project between the project staff and the existing health workers. ii) There is no formal linkage between the responsibility of each member's job in the health sub-center. iii) There is still little chance for midwives to play a catalytic role or to establish communicative networks between workers in order to link various knowledge and skills to provide better FP/MCH services in the health sub-center. 2. Based on the above findings the project recommended to the County Chief (who has power to control the administrative staff and the technical staff in his county) the following ; i) In order to solve the conflicts between the individual roles and functions in performing health care activities, there must be goals agreed upon by both. ii) The health sub·center must function as an autonomous organization to undertake the integration health project. In order to do that, it is necessary to support administrative considerations, and to establish a communication system for supervision and to control of the health sub-centers. iii) The administrative organization, tentatively, must be organized to bind the health worker's midwive's and director's jobs by an organic relationship in order to achieve the integrative system under the leadership of health sub-center director. After submitting this observation report, there has been better understanding from frequent meetings & communication between HW/MW in FP/MCH work as the program developed. Lessons learned from the Seosan Project (on issues of FP/MCH integration in Korea); 1) A majority or about 80% of the couples are now practicing FP. As indicated by the study, there is a growing demand from clients for the health system to provide more MCH services than FP in order to maintain the achieved small size of family through FP practice. It is fortunate to see that the government is now formulating a MCH policy for the year 2,000 and revising MCH laws and regulations to emphasize more MCH care for achieving a small size family through family planning practice. 2) Goal consensus in FP/MCH shouBd be made among the health workers It administrators, especially to emphasize the need of care of 'wanted' child. But there is a long way to go to realize the 'real' integration of FP into MCH in Korea, unless there is a structural integration FP/MCH because a categorical FP is still first priority to reduce the rate of population growth for economic reasons but not yet for health/welfare reasons in practice. 3) There should be more financial allocation: (i) a midwife should be made available to help to promote the MCH program and coordinate services, (in) there should be a health sub·center director who can provide leadership training for managing the integrated program. There is a need for 'organizational support', if the decision of integration is made to obtain benefit from both FP & MCH. In other words, costs should be paid equally to both FP/MCH. The integration slogan itself, without the commitment of paying such costs, is powerless to advocate it. 4) Need of management training for middle level health personnel is more acute as the Government has already constructed 90 MCH centers attached to the County Health Center but without adequate manpower, facilities, and guidelines for integrating the work of both FP and MCH. 5) The local government still considers these MCH centers only as delivery centers to take care only of those visiting maternity cases. The MCH center should be a center for the managment of all pregnancies occurring in the community and the promotion of FP with a systematic and effective linkage of resources available in the county such as i.e. Village Health Worker, Community Health Practitioner, Health Sub-center Physicians & Health workers, Doctors and Midwives in MCH center, OBGY Specialists in clinics & hospitals as practiced by the Seosan project at primary health care level.

  • PDF

Larvae Growth and Biochemical Composition Change of the Pacific Oyster Crassostra gigas, Larvae during Artificial Seed Production (참굴 Crassostrea gigas 인공종묘생산 시 유생의 성장과 체성분 변화)

  • Hur, Young-Baek;Min, Kwang-Sik;Kim, Tae-Eic;Lee, Seung-Ju;Hur, Sung-Bum
    • Journal of Aquaculture
    • /
    • v.21 no.4
    • /
    • pp.203-212
    • /
    • 2008
  • A nutritional demand of oyster, Crassostrea gigas larva as part of research for improving of utilization of microalgae being used for the artificial oyster seed production. The change of body growth and biochemical compositions of larvae were investigated during larvae rearing in hatchery. The larvae were cultured in 60 M/T tank and fed mixture 6 different phytoplankton species, Isochrysis galbana (30%), Cheatoceros gracilis (20%), Pavlova lutheri (20%), Phaeodactylum triconutum (10%), Nannochryis oculata (10%) and Tetraselmis tetrathele (10%). The initial feeding amount was $0.3{\times}10^4cells/mL$ at three times a day to D-shaped larva and the feeding amount had been increased 30% gradually every two day since the larvae were raising. The larvae were developed from D shape to pediveliger stage for 12 days. The daily growth of shell length and hight were $5.8{\sim}30.8\;{\mu}m$ and $8.7{\sim}31.4\;{\mu}m$, respectively and weight gains were changed from D shape to pediveliger as follow: wet weight was $0.52{\sim}15.0\;{\mu}g/larva$, dry weight was $0.2{\sim}6.5\;{\mu}g/larva$, and ash free dry weight was $0.1{\sim}8.5\;{\mu}g/larva$. The larvae growth pattern shown a logarithmic phase from D shape to umbone stage but after that stage shown a exponential growth aspect. The crude protein, crude lipid and nitrogen free extract (NFE) of larvae during rearing periods were analyzed as $6.1{\sim}10.6%$, $0.6{\sim}1.1%$ and 1.0-2.7%, respectively. And the total amino acid contents of the larvae during rearing periods were in order as glutamic acid $1.26{\sim}2.24%$, aspartic acid $0.97{\sim}1.70%$, and methionine $0.12{\sim}0.33%$. Of the total fatty acid in the analyzed larvae, the saturated fatty acid (SSAFA) was decreased from 54.3% (D shaped larvae) to 17.1 % (pediveliger) as larvae development but the total mono-unsaturated fatty acid (${\Sigma}MOFA$) and Poly-unsaturated fatty acid (${\Sigma}PUFA$) were increased from 29.9% and 7.8% to 40.6% and 45.6%, respectively. By the way the each fatty acid of the larvae were composed of palmitic acid $9.89{\sim}36.95%$, oleic acid $12.17{\sim}32.29%$, linoleic acid $1.96{\sim}33.55%$, EPA $2.17{\sim}11.58%$ and DHA $1.95{\sim}4.51%$. As a result of this study, the larvae of oyster were demanded a various nutrients for healthy growth and the feeding control, expecially after umbone stage larvae are a rapidly growing time, is very important for success of artificial seed production.

The Variation of the Dissolved Inorganic Nutrients in the Costal Area of Gunsan, Yellow Sea from 2001 to 2010 (서해 군산 연안의 2001년부터 2010년까지의 용존성무기영양염류의 변동)

  • Heo, Seung;Kweon, Jung-Ro;Park, Jong-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
    • /
    • v.17 no.4
    • /
    • pp.357-365
    • /
    • 2011
  • The variation of the dissolved inorganic nutrients were investigated four times per year in the costal area of Gunsan, Yellow Sea from 2001 to 2010. Water samples were collected at 10 stations and phsico-chemical parameters were analyzed including water temperature, salinity, suspended solids, dissolved oxygen, chemical oxygen demand, chlorophyll a and dissolved inorganic nutrients. The average of dissolved inorganic nitrogen(DIN) for ten years at Gunsan area showed similar concentration between surface and bottom. The average of DIN at surface was 0.421mg/L (0.198~0.846mg/L) and bottom was 0.344mg/L(0.148~0.717mg/L). The highest value of annual average of DIN at surface was 0.846mg/L in 2002 and the lowest value was 0.198mg/L in 2010. The percentage of ammonia, nitrite and nitrate for the average DIN of 10 years showed 27%, 3% and 70% which showed most of DIN was nitrate. Dissolved inorganic phosphate(DIP) for ten years at Gunsan area showed similar concentration between surface and bottom and DIP was decreasing from 2003 to 2010. The average of DIP of 10 years was 0.024mg/L and annual average 0.021mg/L in 2008, 0.007mg/L in 2009 and 0.008mg/L in 2010 which showed decreasing pattern from 2007 to 2010. The average of DIN/DIP ratio from 2002 to 2010 was 6.0(3.2~10.1) at surface and 4.6(2.6~7.0) at bottom. The average value of dissolved inorganic silicate from 2004 to 2010 showed 0.372mg/L at surface layer and 0.352mg/L at bottom layer and was on decreased from 2006 to 2010. The Spearman's correlation analysis was carried out to knowrelation among the salinity and dissolved inorganic nutrients at the surface and bottom layer. The correlation factor of DIN was -0.72, DIP was -0.46 and dissolved inorganic silicate was -0.63 at surface layer and DIN was -0.70, DIP was -0.44 and dissolved inorganic silicate was -0.57 at bottom layer. The dissolved inorganic nutrients at the nearshore of Gunsan was affected from the freshwater discharge of Geum river. Especially, a lot of DIN flowed into the nearshore of Gunsan from Guem river. The concentration of dissolved inorganic nutrients at Gunsan showed high at station 1, 2 and 3 and there was a little concentration differences according to the cruise time. The concentration of dissolved inorganic nutrients showed high value at the station 1, 2, 3 which exist nearshore of Gunsan city and it means these stations mainly affected by Geum river and Gunsan city. The annual average of dissolved inorganic nutrients showed gradually decreased from 2003 to 2010 and we need more research on this conditions.

Comparison of Imposed Work of Breathing Between Pressure-Triggered and Flow-Triggered Ventilation During Mechanical Ventilation (기계환기시 압력유발법과 유량유발법 차이에 의한 부가적 호흡일의 비교)

  • Choi, Jeong-Eun;Lim, Chae-Man;Koh, Youn-Suck;Lee, Sang-Do;Kim, Woo-Sung;Kim, Dong-Soon;Kim, Won-Dong
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
    • /
    • v.44 no.3
    • /
    • pp.592-600
    • /
    • 1997
  • Background : The level of imposed work of breathing (WOB) is important for patient-ventilator synchrony and during weaning from mechanical ventilation. Triggering methods and the sensitivity of demand system are important determining factors of the imposed WOB. Flow triggering method is available on several modern ventilator and is believed to impose less work to a patient-triggered breath than pressure triggering method. We intended to compare the level of imposed WOB on two different methods of triggering and also at different levels of sensitivities on each triggering method (0.7 L/min vs 2.0 L/min on flow triggering ; $-1\;cmH_2O$ vs $-2cm\;H_2O$ on pressure triggering). Methods : The subjects were 12 patients ($64.8{\pm}4.2\;yrs$) on mechanical ventilation and were stable in respiratory pattern on CPAP $3\;cmH_2O$. Four different triggering sensitivities were applied at random order. For determination of imposed WOB, tracheal end pressure was measured through the monitoring lumen of Hi-Lo Jet tracheal tube (Mallincrodt, New York, USA) using pneumotachograph/pressure transducer (CP-100 pulmonary monitor, Bicore, Irvine, CA, USA). Other data of respiratory mechanics were also obtained by CP-100 pulmonary monitor. Results : The imposed WOB was decreased by 37.5% during 0.7 L/min on flow triggering compared to $-2\;cmH_2O$ on pressure triggering and also decreased by 14% during $-1\;cmH_2O$ compared to $-2\;cmH_2O$ on pressure triggering (p < 0.05 in each). The PTP(Pressure Time Product) was also decreased significantly during 0.7 L/min on flow triggering and $-1\;cmH_2O$ on pressure triggering compared to $-2\;cmH_2O$ on pressure triggering (p < 0.05 in each). The proportions of imposed WOB in total WOB were ranged from 37% to 85% and no significant changes among different methods and sensitivities. The physiologic WOB showed no significant changes among different triggering methods and sensitivities. Conclusion : To reduce the imposed WOB, flow triggering with sensitivity of 0.7 L/min would be better method than pressure triggering with sensitivity of $-2\;cm\;H_2O$.

  • PDF

Application of OECD Agricultural Water Use Indicator in Korea (우리나라에 적합한 OECD 농업용수 사용지표의 설정)

  • Hur, Seung-Oh;Jung, Kang-Ho;Ha, Sang-Keun;Song, Kwan-Cheol;Eom, Ki-Cheol
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
    • /
    • v.39 no.5
    • /
    • pp.321-327
    • /
    • 2006
  • In Korea, there is a growing competitive for water resources between industrial, domestic and agricultural consumer, and the environment as many other OECD countries. The demand on water use is also affecting aquatic ecosystems particularly where withdrawals are in excess of minimum environmental needs for rivers, lakes and wetland habits. OECD developed three indicators related to water use by the agriculture in above contexts : the first is a water use intensity indicator, which is expressed as the quantity or share of agricultural water use in total national water utilization; the second is a water stress indicator, which is expressed as the proportion of rivers (in length) subject to diversion or regulation for irrigation without reserving a minimum of limiting reference flow; and the third is a water use efficiency indicator designated as the technical and the economic efficiency. These indicators have different meanings in the aspect of water resource conservation and sustainable water use. So, it will be more significant that the indicators should reflect the intrinsic meanings of them. The problem is that the aspect of an overall water flow in the agro-ecosystem and recycling of water use not considered in the assessment of agricultural water use needed for calculation of these water use indicators. Namely, regional or meteorological characteristics and site-specific farming practices were not considered in the calculation of these indicators. In this paper, we tried to calculate water use indicators suggested in OECD and to modify some other indicators considering our situation because water use pattern and water cycling in Korea where paddy rice farming is dominant in the monsoon region are quite different from those of semi-arid regions. In the calculation of water use intensity, we excluded the amount of water restored through the ground from the total agricultural water use because a large amount of water supplied to the farm was discharged into the stream or the ground water. The resultant water use intensity was 22.9% in 2001. As for water stress indicator, Korea has not defined nor monitored reference levels of minimum flow rate for rivers subject to diversion of water for irrigation. So, we calculated the water stress indicator in a different way from OECD method. The water stress indicator was calculated using data on the degree of water storage in agricultural water reservoirs because 87% of water for irrigation was taken from the agricultural water reservoirs. Water use technical efficiency was calculated as the reverse of the ratio of irrigation water to a standard water requirement of the paddy rice. The efficiency in 2001 was better than in 1990 and 1998. As for the economic efficiency for water use, we think that there are a lot of things to be taken into considerations to make a useful indicator to reflect socio-economic values of agricultural products resulted from the water use. Conclusively, site-specific, regional or meteorogical characteristics as in Korea were not considered in the calculation of water use indicators by methods suggested in OECD(Volume 3, 2001). So, it is needed to develop a new indicators for the indicators to be more widely applicable in the world.

DEVELOPMENT OF STATEWIDE TRUCK TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD BY USING LIMITED O-D SURVEY DATA (한정된 O-D조사자료를 이용한 주 전체의 트럭교통예측방법 개발)

  • 박만배
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
    • /
    • 1995.02a
    • /
    • pp.101-113
    • /
    • 1995
  • The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

  • PDF