• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand Modelling

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The Comparison Among Prediction Methods of Water Demand And Analysis of Data on Water Services Using Data Mining Techniques (데이터마이닝 기법을 활용한 상수 이용현황 분석 및 단기 물 수요예측 방법 비교)

  • Ahn, Jihoon;Kim, Jinhwa
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2016
  • This study identifies major features in water supply and introduces important factors in water services based on the information from data mining analysis of water quantity and water pressure measured from sensors. It also suggests more accurate methods using multiple regression analysis and neural network in predicting short term prediction of water demand in water service. A small block of a county is selected for the data collection and tests. There isa water demand on business such as public offices and hospitalstoo in this area. Real stream data from sensors in this area is collected. Among 2,728 data sets collected, 2,632 sets are used for modelling and 96 sets are used for testing. The shows that neural network is better than multiple regression analysis in their prediction performance.

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Impact of future climate change on UK building performance

  • Amoako-Attah, Joseph;B-Jahromi, Ali
    • Advances in environmental research
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.203-227
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    • 2013
  • Global demand for dwelling energy and implications of changing climatic conditions on buildings confront the built environment to build sustainable dwellings. This study investigates the variability of future climatic conditions on newly built detached dwellings in the UK. Series of energy modelling and simulations are performed on ten detached houses to evaluate and predict the impact of varying future climatic patterns on five building performance indicators. The study identifies and quantifies a consistent declining trend of building performance which is in consonance with current scientific knowledge of annual temperature change prediction in relations to long term climatic variation. The average percentage decrease for the annual energy consumption was predicted to be 2.80, 6.60 and 10.56 for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s time lines respectively. A similar declining trend in the case of annual natural gas consumption was 4.24, 9.98 and 16.1, and that for building emission rate and heating demand were 2.27, 5.49 and 8.72 and 7.82, 18.43 and 29.46 respectively. The study further analyse future heating and cooling demands of the three warmest months of the year and ascertain future variance in relative humidity and indoor temperature which might necessitate the use of room cooling systems to provide thermal comfort.

Evaluation of seismic assessment procedures for determining deformation demands in RC wall buildings

  • Fox, Matthew J.;Sullivan, Timothy J.;Beyer, Katrin
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.911-936
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    • 2015
  • This work evaluates the performance of a number of seismic assessment procedures when applied to a case study reinforced concrete (RC) wall building. The performance of each procedure is evaluated through its ability to accurately predict deformation demands, specifically, roof displacement, inter-storey drift ratio and wall curvatures are considered as the key engineering demand parameters. The different procedures include Direct Displacement-Based Assessment, nonlinear static analysis and nonlinear dynamic analysis. For the latter two approaches both lumped and distributed plasticity modelling are examined. To thoroughly test the different approaches the case study building is considered in different configurations to include the effects of unequal length walls and plan asymmetry. Recommendations are made as to which methods are suited to different scenarios, in particular focusing on the balance that needs to be made between accurate prediction of engineering demand parameters and the time and expertise required to undertake the different procedures. All methods are shown to have certain merits, but at the same time a number of the procedures are shown to have areas requiring further development. This work also highlights a number of key aspects related to the seismic response of RC wall buildings that may significantly impact the results of an assessment. These include the influence of higher-mode effects and variations in spectral shape with ductility demands.

Analysis for Evaluating the Impact of PEVs on New-Town Distribution System in Korea

  • Choi, Sang-Bong
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.859-864
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    • 2015
  • This paper analyzes the impact of Plug-in Electric vehicles(PEVs) on power demand and voltage change when PEVs are connected to the domestic distribution system. Specifically, it assesses PEVs charging load by charging method in accordance with PEVs penetration scenarios, its percentage of total load, and voltage range under load conditions. Concretely, we develop EMTDC modelling to perform a voltage distribution analysis when the PEVs charging system by their charging scenario was connected to the distribution system under the load condition. Furthermore we present evaluation algorithm to determine whether it is possible to adjust it such that it is in the allowed range by applying ULTC when the voltage change rate by PEVs charging scenario exceed its allowed range. Also, detailed analysis of the impact of PEVs on power distribution system was carried out by calculating existing electric power load and additional PEVs charge load by each scenario on new-town in Korea to estimate total load increases, and also by interpreting the subsequent voltage range for system circuits and demonstrating conditions for countermeasures. It was concluded that total loads including PEVs charging load on new-town distribution system in Korea by PEVs penetration scenario increase significantly, and the voltage range when considering ULTC, is allowable in terms of voltage tolerance range up to a PEVs penetration of 20% by scenario. Finally, we propose the charging capacity of PEVs that can delay the reinforcement of power distribution system while satisfying the permitted voltage change rate conditions when PEVs charging load is connected to the power distribution system by their charging penetration scenario.

Which Node of Supply Chain Suffers Mostly to Disruption in the Pandemic?

  • NGUYEN, Tram Thi Bich
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.19 no.11
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    • pp.59-68
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: The Covid-19 pandemic has had excessively severe impacts on all the nodes and edges of any supply chain due to changes in consumer behaviours and lockdown restrictions from governments among countries. This article aims to provide a simulating experiment on how a supply chain deals with supply disruption risks by flexibility in the inventory level of each sector as a buffer considering the overall cost to fulfil demand in the market. Research design, data and methodology: Agent-based simulation techniques are used to determine the cost-efficiency and customer waiting time related to varying inventory levels of each member in the supply chain when using inventory buffers. Findings: This study has shown that any sudden changes in the inventory level of each sector are likely to impact the rest of the supply chain. Among all sectors, the wholesaler will be impacted more severely than others. Also, the manufacturing sector is the most suitable node to adjust inventory depending on its manufacturing ability. Conclusion: The findings of the study provide insightful implications for decision-makers to adjust inventory levels and policymakers to maintain manufacturing activities in the context of the pandemic restrictions to deal with the excessive demand and potential supply disruption risks.

Modelling and Evaluation of Traffic Flow with Variable Speed Limit on Highway (연속류 가변속도제어 모형개발 및 효과분석)

  • Cho, Hye-Rim;Kim, Young-Chan;Ha, Dong-Ik
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.16-26
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    • 2011
  • Variable speed limit(VSL) is one of the highway ITS techniques designed to prevent accidents and traffic slow down by reducing congestion or speed variation between vehicles and lanes prior to arrive at the accident location by limiting speed. In Korea, while people have recognized the need for variable speed limit beginning with Seoul's urban expressway and installed facilities in order to provide guide for speed limit per lane and lane use, there has not been enough development of algorithm for internal administration as well as research on the basic principles behind administering variable speed limit. This study is for modeling and evaluating the VSL strategies based on the traffic flow theory. Supply-Demand method of the Cell Transmission Model is applied to demonstrate the traffic features and shockwaves to upstream of the bottleneck with/without VSL. We verified the explanation of Cell Transmission Model for the numerical example. and as the result, it is found that VSL strategies can reduce the total travel time in the congested section and variation of the speed. It means VSL is useful to improve the traffic condition and the safety on highway

3-D Modelling of Facility Using Digital Map and Aerial Photos (수치지도와 항공사진을 이용한 시설물 3차원 모델링)

  • 손홍규;최종현;김의명
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry, and Cartography Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.303-308
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    • 2003
  • Facility management system has been studied recently due to its increasing demand. As a starting step it is necessary to create 3-D shape of the facility. In this study, we attempted to create 3-D shape of the buildings by fusing the raster and vector information. the raster information comes from stereo aerial photographs and the vector information comes from the existing 2-D digital map. GPS surveying and data conversion using ACAD and ARCINFO also performed to extract building height from stereo aerial photographs. Finally we could be able to perform semi-automatic 3-D building modeling with fusion of two sources of information.

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Spatial-Temporal Modelling of Road Traffic Data in Seoul City

  • Lee, Sang-Yeol;Ahn, Soo-Han;Park, Chang-Yi;Jeon, Jong-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.261-270
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    • 2002
  • Recently, the demand of the Intelligent Transportation System(ITS) has been increased to a large extent, and a real-time traffic information service based on the internet system became very important. When ITS companies carry out real-time traffic services, they find some traffic data missing, and use the conventional method of reconstructing missing values by calculating average time trend. However, the method is found unsatisfactory, so that we develop a new method based the spatial and spatial-temporal models. A cross-validation technique shows that the spatial-temporal model outperforms the others.

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차량 능동 현가장치의 혼합제어기 설계

  • 한기봉;이시복
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 1993.10a
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    • pp.293-298
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    • 1993
  • In ground vehicles, the increasing demand for safety and ride comfort which are trade-off relation, especially at high speeds, has led to the development od actively controlled suspensions. The LQG/LTR controller can be used to design a robust feedback control system that deals with disturbance rejection properties as well as insensitivity to modelling errors and sensor noise. And when the disturbance can not be measured but is limited within a certain frequency range, a bandpass feedback to eliminate the disturbance response can be used. In this paper, hybrid controller cosisted of bandpass feedback controller and LQG/LTR controller is applied to a quarter-car model moving on a randomly profiled road. The random road profile considered as colored noise is shaped from white noise by use of shaping filter. The performance of the hybrid control system is compared with that of an LQG/LTR controlled system.

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A Multi-stage Multi-criteria Transshipment Model for Optimal Selection of Transshipment Nodes - Case of Train Ferry-

  • Kim, Dong-Jin;Kim, Sang-Youl
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.271-275
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    • 2009
  • A strategic decision making on location selection for product transportation includes many tangible and untangible factors. To choose the best locations is a difficult job in the sense that objectives usually conflict with each other. In this paper, we consider a multi stage multi criteria transshipment problem with different types of items to be transported from the sources to the destination points. For the optimization of the problem, a goal programming formulation will be presented in which the location selection for each product type will be determined under the multi objective criteria. In the study, we generalize the transshipment model with a variety of product types and finite number of different intermediate nodes between origins and destinations. For the selection of the criteria we selected the costs(fixed cost and transportation cost), location numbers, and unsatisfied demand for each type of products in multi stage transportation, which are the main goals in transshipment modelling problems. The related conditions are also modelled through linear formats.