• Journal of The Korean Society of Integrative Medicine
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.149-169
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• 2018

Purpose : This study was to develop a strategy for modeling future workforce projections to serve as a basis for analyzing annual supply of and demand for physical therapists across the South Korea into 2030. Methods : In-and-out movement model was used to project the supply of physical therapists. The demand was projected according to the demand-based method which consists of four-stages such as estimation of the utilization rate of the base year, forecasting of health care utilization of the target years, forecasting of the requirements of clinical physical therapists and non-clinical physical therapists based on the projected physical therapists. Results : Based on the current productivity standards, there will be oversupply of 39,007 to 40,875 physical therapists under the demand scenario of average rate in 2030, undersupply of 44,663 to 49,885 under the demand scenario of logistic model, oversupply of 16,378 to 19,100 under the demand scenario of logarithm, and oversupply of 18,185 to 20,839 under the demand scenario of auto-regressive moving average (ARIMA) model in 2030. Conclusion : The result of this projection suggests that the direction and degree of supply of and demand for physical therapists varied depending on physical therapists productivity and utilization growth scenarios. However, the need for introduction of a professional physical therapist system and the need to provide long-term care rehabilitation services are actively being discussed in entering the aging society. If community rehabilitation programs for rehabilitation of disabled people and the elderly are activated, the demand of physical therapists will increase, especially for elderly people. Therefore, healthcare policy should focus on establishing rehabilitation service infrastructure suitable for an aging society, providing high-quality physical therapy services, and effective utilization of physical therapists.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.74-82
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• 2011

The Bass model is a cornerstone in diffusion theory which is used for forecasting demand of durables or new services. Three well-known estimation methods for parameters of the Bass model are Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE), Nonlinear Least Square (NLS). In this paper, a hybrid method incorporating OLS and NLS is presented and it's performance is analyzed and compared with OLS and NLS by using simulation data and empirical data. The results show that NLS has the best performance in terms of accuracy and our hybrid method has the best performance in terms of stability. Specifically, hybrid method has better performance with less data. This result means much in practical aspect because the avaliable data is little when a diffusion model is used for forecasting demand of a new product.

• Architectural research
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.137-145
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• 2018

The nondestructive test is widely used in the field of diagnosis and maintenance to evaluate the degree of damaging of structures caused by aging, and the demand for this test method is expected to continue increasing. However, there is a lack of standards related to the nondestructive test, and South Korea is relying heavily on developed nations for original technologies related to diagnosis. It is an urgent task to establish a nondestructive test method appropriate for the circumstance of South Korea. The purpose of this study is to compare and analyze estimated error of compressive strength in single-story structures comprised of vertical and horizontal reinforced concrete members using the impact testing method and rebound hardness method, which are nondestructive test methods, and to review on-site applicability of these methods. Based on compressive strength of the structures estimated, overall mean error was 21.2% for the impact testing method and 15.6% for the rebound hardness method. The necessity of a reliable diagnostic method based on compound nondestructive test methods to increase accuracy of estimation was confirmed.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.47 no.1
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• pp.19-28
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• 2020

This study proposed a simple estimation method for irrigation return flow from paddy fields using the water balance model. The merit of this method is applicability to other paddy fields irrigated from agricultural reservoirs due to the simplicity compared with the previous monitoring based estimation method. It was assumed that the unused amount of irrigation water was the return flow which included the quick and delayed return flows. The amount of irrigation supply from a reservoir was estimated from the reservoir water balance with the storage rate and runoff model. It was also assumed that the infiltration was the main source of the delayed return flow and that the other delayed return flow was neglected. In this study, the amount of reservoir inflow and water demand from paddy field are calculated on a daily basis, and irrigation supply was calculated on 10-day basis, taking into account the uncertainty of the model and the reliability of the data. The regression rate was calculated on a yearly basis, and yearly data was computed by accumulating daily and 10-day data, considering that the recirculating water circulation cycle was relatively long. The proposed method was applied to the paddy blocks of the Jamhong and Seosan agricultural reservoirs and the results were acceptable.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.75-92
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• 1997

This paper is concerned with an estimation of optimal investment of road sector in 1996-2005. The main method is a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model for Korea in which the optimal solution is derived in a recursively dynamic path. The model is composed of three main modules: the supply, the demand and the price. In this paper, the investment demand for the road is optimized with subject to national economic growth and price inflation. If the annual inflation level and the economic growth rate during 1996-2005 are set to 4.5%-5.0% and 6.0%-6.5% respectively, the optimal demand for the road investment is estimated as 155.1-180.1 trillion Won or 3.33%-3.89% of the GDP for ten years. It implies that the additional increase of the road investment by 0.61%-1.15% of the GDP is required for sustainable economic development, since the share of the road investment in the GDP of the latest 5 years has stayed around 2.27%. However, it is necessary to reduce construction investments on housing as well as to promote private financing of the road in order to maximize an efficiency of resource allocation.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.32 no.4B
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• pp.233-242
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• 2012

In the past, the domestic water supply benefit of dam has been estimated by replacement dam cost approach. But it is logically inappropriate that we use the second priority dam as a replaced facility. Therefore, this study aims to suggest the estimation method of the domestic water supply benefit by using demand function, which is deduced from Willingness-To-Pay (WTP) of consumers. For this purpose, a survey concerning the marginal WTP is carried out according to the change of water use amount used, targeted 1,000 households in metropolitan area. And by using the marginal WPT, we estimated the demand function of a family. Finally, the monthly benefit equation is derived. The approach is demonstrated and discussed for an example, the Song-Li-Won dam project which is now renamed Young-Ju dam. From the example study, the total benefit for the durable years (50 years), was about 90 billion won. The method proposed herein is expected to be practical and useful in the economic analysis of the domestic water supply project including dam construction, as well as in further studies.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.217-226
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• 2011

The Seoul Metropolitan Government is striving to minimize the amount of traffic according to the supply of apartment houses along with the solution of housing shortage for the low income people through high density development near the subway area. Therefore, a stronger policy is necessary to control the traffic of the passenger cars in a subway area for the successful high density development focusing on public transportation, and especially, the estimation of the demand of cars with high reliability is necessary to control the demand of parking such as the limited supply of parking lot. Accordingly, this study developed car ownership forecasting model using Look-up Table among category analyses which are easy to be applied and have high reliability. The estimation method using Look-up-Table is possible to be applied to both measurable and immeasurable types, easy to accumulate data, and features the flexible responding depending on the changes of conditions. This study established Look-up-Table model through the survey of geographical location, the scale of housing, the accessible distance to a subway station and to a bus station, the number of bus routes, and the number of car owned with data regarding 242 blocks in Seoul City as subjects.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.405-426
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• 2000

Two approximate methods based on mechanism analysis suitable for seismic assessment/design of structural concrete are reviewed. The methods involve use of equal energy concept or equal displacement concept along with appropriate patterns of inelastic deformations to relate structure's maximum lateral displacement to member and plastic deformations. One of these methods (Clough's method), defined here as a ductility-based approach, is examined in detail and a modification for its improvement is suggested. The modification is based on estimation of maximum inelastic displacement using inelastic design response spectra (IDRS) as an alternative to using equal energy concept. The IDRS for demand displacement ductilities are developed for a single degree of freedom model subjected to several accelerograms as functions of response modification factor (R), damping ratios, and strain hardening. The suggested revised methodology involves estimation of R as the ratio of elastic strength demand to code level demand, and determination of design base shear using $R_{design}{\leq}R$ and maximum displacement, determination of plastic displacement using IDRS and subsequent local plastic deformations. The methodology is demonstrated for the case of a 10-story precast wall panel building.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2017.04a
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• pp.885-888
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• 2017

In this paper, a new strategy for estimating building temperature based on the modified resistance capacitance (R - C) network thermal dynamic model is proposed. The proposed method gives accurate indoor temperature estimation using minimum variance finite impulse response filter. Our study is clarified by the experimental validation of the proposed indoor temperature estimation method. This experiment scenario environment is composed of a demand response (DR) server and home energy management system (HEMS) in a test bed.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2005.07a
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• pp.736-738
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• 2005

For calculating optimal generation composition of The Basic Plan of Long Term Electricity Supply & Demand, the Screening Curve Method that using generation cost for planning is needed. This paper will induce optimal power system ratio included Combined Head and Power and suggest the method for optimal generation composition of The Basic Plan of Long Term Electricity Supply & Demand that considered policy side.