• 품질경영학회지
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• 제50권3호
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• pp.349-371
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• 2022

Purpose: Compared to the rapid growth rate of the domestic automotive LED industry so far, the predictive analysis method for demand forecasting or market outlook was insufficient. Accordingly, product characteristics are analyzed through the life trend of LEDs for automotive exterior lamps and the relative strengths of p and q using the Bass model. Also, future demands are predicted. Methods: We used sales data of a leading company in domestic market of automotive LEDs. Considering the autocorrelation error term of this data, parameters m, p, and q were estimated through the modified estimation method of OLS and the NLS(Nonlinear Least Squares) method, and the optimal method was selected by comparing prediction error performance such as RMSE. Future annual demands and cumulative demands were predicted through the growth curve obtained from Bass-NLS model. In addition, various nonlinear growth curve models were applied to the data to compare the Bass-NLS model with potential market demand, and an optimal model was derived. Results: From the analysis, the parameter estimation results by Bass-NLS obtained m=1338.13, p=0.0026, q=0.3003. If the current trend continues, domestic automotive LED market is predicted to reach its maximum peak in 2021 and the maximum demand is $102.23M. Potential market demand was $1338.13M. In the nonlinear growth curve model analysis, the Gompertz model was selected as the optimal model, and the potential market size was $2864.018M. Conclusion: It is expected that the Bass-NLS method will be applied to LED sales data for automotive to find out the characteristics of the relative strength of q/p of products and to be used to predict current demand and future cumulative demand.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.81-88
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• 2008

장래교통수요에 대한 예측은 기본적으로 4단계 수요추정방법을 통해 이루어지지만, 각 단계마다의 변화가 최종수요예측 결과에 미치는 영향에 대해서는 고려되지 못하고 있다. 즉, 장래에 대한 예측이 많은 변동성을 내포하고 있음에도 수요예측분석과정은 점 추정치(point-estimation)의 값을 입력자료로 분석하여 최종결과물 또한 점추정값으로 제시하고 있어 교통수요의 가변성 및 탄력성을 반영하지 못하고 있다. 하지만 교통 상황이 급속히 변화는 우리나라의 현실을 볼 때 교통수요가 갖고 있는 가변성과 탄력성을 반영하여 결과를 분석할 수 있는 구간추정방식(Interval-estimation)의 방법론에 대한 연구가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 장래교통수요 예측 과정의 가장 초기단계인 통행발생단계의 회귀분석모형 적용시 구간추정방식을 적용하여 상한값과 하한값을 함께 산출하였다. 상한값과 하한값에 의한 발생 도착량에 대해 4단계 교통모형을 적용하여 발생량-도착량에 대한 Balancing, 통행분포, 통행배정의 4단계과정을 적용하였고 수요분석 각 단계에서의 도출된 결과에 대해 비교하였다. 최종적으로, 통행배정 된 교통량의 변화비율을 링크특성과 함께 비교분석하였다. 본 연구를 통해 수요분석 시 입력 자료의 불확실성이 가져오는 영향을 파악하였으며 신뢰구간에 의한 결과를 비교분석함으로써 수요추정의 가변성이 미치는 영향을 평가하였다. 또한 수요분석의 가변성에 따른 링크교통량의 탄력성을 평가할 수 있는 방법을 제시함으로써 교통수요 추정시 분석방법의 가변성 및 탄력성을 고려할 수 있다고 판단된다.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.175-186
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• 2007

The employment permit system for foreigners, which stresses introduction of foreign work force in a legal manner rather than in the position of being trainees, is anticipated to efficiently improve introduction and the overall management system of foreign work force and related difficulties such as illegal alien problems, absurdity on sending laborers overseas. In this paper, a prospective model of supply and demand of work force has been developed basing on various categories of industries and patterns about nationally practical foreign employees to look over efficient supply and demand of work force suiting employment of foreigner among foreign work force policies. To propose the prospective model, we have derived industry- and pattern-related matrixes of foreign laborers basing on Inter-Industry Analysis Method put forth by Professor Leontiyef in 1930, and through the derived matrix assessed repercussions concerning overall domestic industries and foreigner types and decided yearly weight; the capacity of supply and demand of foreign laborers can be compared through proposed statistical estimation and government estimation by combining the determined weight with yearly incomes of foreign laborers. This paper has thoroughly considered the particularity of our employment permit system for foreigners and applied the Weibull distribution and incorporated the dependence of foreign laborers during the limited period of 3 years to the industry relation analysis, ultimately proposing an efficient supply and demand method about domestic foreign work force.

• 한국관개배수논문집
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.236-244
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• 2007

Agricultural water demand in North Korea must be considered for the near-future investment in agricultural consolidation projects and to prepare for the future unification. Thus, the objective of this study is to estimate the agricultural water demand of paddy fieldss in North Korea. GIS data including land cover classification map, Thiessen network and administration maps of North Korea, and meteorological data were synthesized. In order to estimate paddy water demand for a 10-year return period, the FAO Blaney-Criddle method and the fixed effective rainfall ratio method were used. The results showed that 4.77 billion $\beta$(c)/year paddy water demand is required for the 512,400 ha of paddy fieldss. Paddy water demand in the three major regions - Hwanghaedo, Pyeongando, Hamgyeongnamdo - was estimated chargong 81.7 percent of total paddy water demand in North Korea.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.777-799
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• 2016

One of the major components for performance based seismic design is accurate estimation of critical seismic demand parameters. While nonlinear seismic analysis is the most appropriate analysis method for estimation of seismic demand parameters, this method is very time consuming and complex. Single mode pushover analysis method, N2 method and multi-mode pushover analysis method, modal pushover analysis (MPA) are two nonlinear static methods that have recently been used for seismic performance evaluation of few lateral load-resisting systems. This paper further investigates the applicability of N2 and MPA methods for estimating the seismic demands of ductile unstiffened steel plate shear walls (SPSWs). Three different unstiffened SPSWs (4-, 8-, and 15-storey) designed according to capacity design approach were analysed under artificial and real ground motions for Vancouver. A comparison of seismic response quantities such as, height-wise distribution of floor displacements, storey drifts estimated using N2 and MPA methods with more accurate nonlinear seismic analysis indicates that both N2 and MPA procedures can reasonably estimates the peak top displacements for low-rise SPSW buildings. In addition, MPA procedure provides better predictions of inter-storey drifts for taller SPSW. The MPA procedure has been extended to provide better estimate of base shear of SPSW.

• 한국주거학회논문집
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.33-42
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• 1995

At the moment the housing demand needs estimated at the level of provinces and big cities. But at the level of small cities and smaller administrative unit like Goon, it is not, for lack of appropriate estimating method. Therefore it is very much required to develope appropriate estimating method at such levels. This study is an attempt to apply to some local areas the estimating method developed by Professor Miyqke of Japan as is suggested in his article. "How to Estimate the Housing Demand in Relation with the Different of Poulation Structure." The result shows that the applied local areas showed repective characteristics distinguished from one another in the pattern of housing demand, to prove the approprateness of the method when applied to the areas at the level of small cities and Goons.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제67권4호
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• pp.491-497
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• 2018

Most of the applications for distribution system operation highly rely on the voltage and current managements from the field devices. Voltage from the remote controlled switch contains unacceptably large measurement error due to the nonlinear characteristics of the bushing potential transformer. This paper proposes a new voltage magnitude estimation method by calculating voltage drop using current measurement, line impedance and loads deployment data. Contract demand power and pole transformer capacity managed by NDIS are used as a key element to improve accuracy of the proposed method. Various case studies using Matlab simulation have been performed to verify feasibility of the propose voltage estimation method.

• 한국건축친환경설비학회 논문집
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• 제12권6호
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• pp.627-640
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• 2018

Submetering electricity consumption data enables more detail input of end use components, such as lighting, plug, HVAC, and occupancy in building energy modeling. However, such an modeling efforts and results are rarely tried and published in terms of the estimation accuracy of electricity demand. In this research, actual submetering data obtained from a university building is analyzed and provided for building energy modeling practice. As alternative modeling cases, conventional modeling method (Case-1), using reference schedule per building usage, and main metering data based modeling method (Case-2) are established. Detail efforts are added to derive prototypical schedules from the metered data by introducing variability index. The simulation results revealed that Case-1 showed the largest error as we can expect. And Case-2 showed comparative error relative to Case-3 in terms of total electricity estimation. But Case-2 showed about two times larger error in CV (RMSE) in lighting energy demand due to lack of End Use consumption information.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제51권12호
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• pp.630-637
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• 2002

This paper proposed a new diffusion model considering DSM rebate program's support conditions. The proposed method used some aspects of the rebate program such as support qualifications, annual support volume, and support level per appliance as following : The support qualifications were limited as the consumer which can get the rebate program's benefit, the annual support volume was constrained as the fixing budget and the support level per appliance was considered by high-efficient appliance actuality price. This paper also proposed a new method that used neural network as its parameter estimation moth[,4 for the diffusion model. The diffusion model and its parameter estimation method are expected to be able to analyze the diffusion characteristics of high-efficient appliance through the rebate program and the effects of rebate program's support conditions. Also, these will be able to evaluate the impacts and to analyze the cost-effectiveness of Energy Efficiency Demand-Side Management(EEDSM) resources. The case study is performed on the high-efficient lighting appliance rebate program of Korea by using the suggested diffusion model and estimation method and thus verified its validity.

• Advances in robotics research
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.129-140
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• 2018

With the increasing demand for the development of human pose estimation, such as human-computer interaction and human activity recognition, there have been numerous approaches to detect the 2D poses of people in images more efficiently. Despite many years of human pose estimation research, the estimation of human poses with images remains difficult to produce satisfactory results. In this study, we propose a robust 2D human body pose estimation method using an RGB camera sensor. Our pose estimation method is efficient and cost-effective since the use of RGB camera sensor is economically beneficial compared to more commonly used high-priced sensors. For the estimation of upper-body joint positions, semantic segmentation with a fully convolutional network was exploited. From acquired RGB images, joint heatmaps accurately estimate the coordinates of the location of each joint. The network architecture was designed to learn and detect the locations of joints via the sequential prediction processing method. Our proposed method was tested and validated for efficient estimation of the human upper-body pose. The obtained results reveal the potential of a simple RGB camera sensor for human pose estimation applications.