• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand Estimation Method

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An Economic Review on the Short-run Storability of Field Citrus in Jeju (노지감귤 단기 저장가능성에 대한 경제적 효과 검토)

  • Ahn, Kyeong Ah;Moon, Tae Wan;Kim, Bae Sung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.8
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    • pp.392-402
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    • 2018
  • Citrus fruits can be classified as field citrus, greenhouse citrus, citrus produced by rain proof cultivation and late-harvested citrus such as Hallabong, Chunhaehyang, and Jinjihyang according to cultivation method or variety in Jeju province of Korea. The consumption of late-harvested citrus has been increasing steadily since 1990 because the sugar content of the fruits is ordinary higher than field citrus. The cultivation land of citrus produced by rain proof cultivation has been also enlarged continuously aided by Korean government support program and quality increasing effect of this cultivation method. However, the cultivation land of field citrus has been decreasing since 2010. In spite of such a decrease of cultivation land, recently the price of field citrus rather declined according to increasing of yield per 10a. For the estimation and forecast of the long-term supply-demand model in the field citrus, we constructed a partial balance model for the individual field citrus and estimated individual equation in each item's model by using the econometric method. As a result of the production storage scenario analysis, the cultivation area is expected to store 5%(14.49ha), 10%(14.97ha). 15%(15.50ha) of citrus production in 2027. This study reviews the structure of storage, and storability in Jeju field citrus and suggest several policy implications.

A Forecast Method of Marine Traffic Volume through Time Series Analysis (시계열 분석을 통한 해상교통량 예측 방안)

  • Yoo, Sang-Rok;Park, Young-Soo;Jeong, Jung-Sik;Kim, Chul-Seong;Jeong, Jae-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.612-620
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    • 2013
  • In this study, time series analysis was tried, which is widely applied to demand forecast of diverse fields such as finance, economy, trade, and so on, different from previous regression analysis. Future marine traffic volume was forecasted on the basis of data of the number of ships entering Incheon port from January 1996 to June 2013, through courses of stationarity verification, model identification, coefficient estimation, and diagnostic checking. As a result of prediction January 2014 to December 2015, February has less traffic volume than other months, but January has more traffic volume than other months. Also, it was found out that Incheon port was more proper to ARIMA model than exponential smoothing method and there was a difference of monthly traffic volume according to seasons. The study has a meaning in that future traffic volume was forecasted per month with time series model. Also, it is judged that forecast of future marine traffic volume through time series model will be the more suitable model than prediction of marine traffic volume with previous regression analysis.

Research on Longitudinal Slope Estimation Using Digital Elevation Model (수치표고모델 정보를 활용한 도로 종단경사 산출 연구)

  • Han, Yohee;Jung, Yeonghun;Chun, Uibum;Kim, Youngchan;Park, Shin Hyoung
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.84-99
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    • 2021
  • As the micro-mobility market grows, the demand for route guidance, that includes uphill information as well, is increasing. Since the climbing angle depends on the electric motor uesed, it is necessary to establish an uphill road DB according to the threshold standard. Although road alignment information is a very important element in the basic information of the roads, there is no information currently on the longitudinal slope in the road digital map. The High Definition(HD) map which is being built as a preparation for the era of autonomous vehicles has the altitude value, unlike the existing standard node link system. However, the HD map is very insufficient because it has the altitude value only for some sections of the road network. This paper, hence, intends to propose a method to generate the road longitudinal slope using currently available data. We developed a method of computing the longitudinal slope by combining the digital elevation model and the standard link system. After creating an altitude at the road link point divided by 4m based on the Seoul road network, we calculated individual slope per unit distance of the road. After designating a representative slope for each road link, we have extracted the very steep road that cannot be climbed with personal mobility and the slippery roads that cannot be used during heavy snowfall. We additionally described errors in the altitude values due to surrounding terrain and the issues related to the slope calculation method. In the future, we expect that the road longitudinal slope information will be used as basic data that can be used for various convergence analyses.

Estimation of Life Expectancy and Budget Demands based on Maintenance Strategy (도로포장 유지보수 전략에 따른 기대수명과 보수비용산정)

  • Han, Dae-Seok;Do, Myung-Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.4D
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    • pp.345-356
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    • 2012
  • Road pavement requires repetitive maintenance works to maintain satisfactory service level to the public. However, the repetitive maintenance works upon deteriorated pavement structure make negative effects to deterioration speed. It often leads to inefficient use of limited budget. For that reason, the pavements require reconstruction work to recover their original performance. Recently, construction demands in the Korean national highway have already been reached to maximum level, and the aged pavements start to demand much more reconstruction works. However, in the real world, road agencies have often been confused when they determine maintenance design for such aged road sections due to budget constraint. It is because there is no reliable long-term maintenance strategy that supports their decision making. To support their decision making, this paper aimed to suggest the best maintenance strategy considering changing process of pavement performance by repetitive maintenance works. As an analysis method, probability distribution and hazard function to estimate the life expectancy were adopted, and then the results were used for long-term life cycle cost analysis with deterministic or Monte-Carlo method under various scenarios. As an empirical study, the Korean national highway data that has long-maintenance history data since 1986 has been applied. Last, this paper considered quality assurance of maintenance work to improve maintenance quality. These could be important information as a part of long-term maintenance strategy of pavement.

Application of Vision-based Measurement System for Estimation of Dynamic Characteristics on Hanger Cables (행어케이블의 동특성 추정을 위한 영상계측시스템 적용)

  • Kim, Sung-Wan;Kim, Nam-Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.1A
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2012
  • Along with the development of coasts, islands and mountains, the demand of long-span bridges increases which, in turn, brings forth the construction of cable-supported bridges like suspension and cable-stayed bridges. There are various types of statically indeterminate structures widely applied that supported the main girder with stay cables, main cables, hanger cables with aesthetic structural appearance. As to the cable-supported bridges, the health monitoring of a bridge can be identified by measuring tension force on cable repeatedly. The tension force on cable is measured either by direct measurement of stress of cable using load cell or hydraulic jack, or by vibration method estimating tension force using cable shape and measured dynamic characteristics. In this study, a method to estimate dynamic characteristics of hanger cables by using a digital image processing is suggested. Digital images are acquired by a portable digital camcorder, which is the sensor to remotely measure dynamic responses considering convenient and economical aspects for use. A digital image correlation(DIC) technique is applied for digital image processing, and an image transform function(ITF) to correct the geometric distortion induced from the deformed images is used to estimate subpixel. And, the correction of motion of vision-based measurement system using a fixed object in an image without installing additional sensor can be enhanced the resolution of dynamic responses and modal frequencies of hanger cables.

Estimation of Resource Efficiency and Its Demand for Photovoltaic Systems Using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Method (LCA기법을 활용한 태양광 시스템의 자원효율성 및 자원요구량 예측)

  • Lim, Ji-Ho;Hwang, Yong-Woo;Kim, Jun-Beum;Moon, Jin-Young
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.35 no.7
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    • pp.464-471
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    • 2013
  • In this study, the resource efficiency and future metal resource requirement in photovoltaic (PV) production system were evaluated by using material balance data and life cycle assesment (LCA) method. As a result, in the resource efficiency of ferrous and non-ferrous metal, lead and tin had higher resource efficiency than other materials in all PV systems (SC-Si, MC-Si, CI(G)S, CdTe). In the resource efficiency of rare metals, gallium and rhenium in silicon system and rhenium and rhodium in thin-film system ranked as the first and second high resource efficiency. In case of rare earth metal, gadolinium and samarium took higher resource efficiency. The results of the future metal resource requirement in PV systems showed that 2,545,670 ton of aluminium, 92,069 ton of zinc, 22,044 ton of copper, 1,695 ton of tin and 31 ton of nickel will be needed by 2030 in South Korea, except resource recycling supplement.

The Estimation of Domestic Construction Technology Full-Text Services using Tobit Model (Tobit 모형을 이용한 국내 건설기술 원문서비스 가치 추정)

  • Jeong, Seong-Yun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.656-662
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    • 2016
  • We have provided a variety of domestic construction technology related full-text services through the Construction Technology Digital Library system since 2001. CODIL is a system that services the database related to construction technology data. On the other hand, there is growing demand for DB every year, but the required budget is shrinking. Therefore, this study investigated the satisfaction to effectively service the construction technique-related full-text with a limited budget. The monetary value of full-text to express satisfaction with the quantified value was estimated using the Tobit model. The Tobit model is used as a contingent valuation method to estimate the value of non-market goods. This model is the limited dependent variable regression model to observations by censoring the limit of the left side or right side so that a biased outlier is not reflected in the willingness to pay. A survey was conducted by sampling 312 respondents. The mean, median, truncating the willingness of payment were calculated for the six types of the full-text services using the Tobit model. The statistically significant variables affecting the willingness to pay for the full-text services were identified. The mean value of per the full-text service was estimated to be 46,530 won. The significance of this study was to use the Tobit model to estimate the value of the construction technology-related full-text services for the first time in Korea.

Case Study on Optimization of Send-out Operation in Liquefied Natural Gas Receiving Terminal (LNG 터미널 송출 운전 최적화 사례 연구)

  • Park, Chansaem;Han, Chonghun
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.150-155
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    • 2015
  • Recently, LNG receiving terminals have been widely constructed and expanded for an increase in LNG demand. Selection of the storage tank for send-out and estimation of send-out flow rate have significant influence to process operation and economics. In this study, a send-out flow rate of each storage tank is optimized in order to minimize the total BOG generation rate. Considering a size and characteristic of each storage tanks, BOG flow rates are estimated using a dynamic simulation with varying liquid levels in the tanks. The regression model is developed fitting BOG flow rates and tank liquid levels, which are boil off rate model to predict BOG flow rates with particular level data. The objective function and constraints including required total send-out flow rate and level limit in the tanks are formulated to optimize a send-out flow rate of each tank. This method for optimization of send-out operation is applied to the Incheon LNG receiving terminal considering two scenarios for various liquid levels and maximum and minimum required send-out flow rates. For maximum required send-out flow rate, this method achieves BOG reduction of 9% comparing with assumed conventional operation.

Suggestion of a Hybrid Method for Estimating Photovoltaic Power Generation (전력 IT 시스템에서 복합방식의 태양광 발전량 예측 방법 제안)

  • Ju, Woo-Sun;Jang, Min-Seok;Lee, Yon-Sik;Bae, Seok-Chan;Kim, Weon-Goo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2011.10a
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    • pp.782-785
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    • 2011
  • Needs for MG(Microgrid) development are increasing all over the world as a solution to the problems including the depletion problem of energy resources, the growing demand for electric power and the climatic and environmental change. Especially Photovoltaic power is one of the most general renewable energy resources. However there is a problem of the uniformity of power quality because the power generated from solar light is very sensitive to climate fluctuation (variation of insolation and duration of sunshine, etc). As a solution to the above problem, ESS(Energy Storage System) is considered generally, but it has some limitations. To solve this problem this paper suggests a hybrid estimation method of photovoltaic power generation according to two climatic factors, i.e. insolation and sunshine. This result seems to help design the appropriate capacity of ESS and estimate the proper switching time between DC and AC power in the premises power system and thus maintain the uniformity of power quality.

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Analysis of Elementary School Teachers' Perception on Field Application of STEAM Education (융합인재교육(STEAM)의 현장적용에 대한 초등 교사들의 인식조사)

  • Lim, Soo-min;Kim, Youngshin;Lee, Tae-sang
    • Journal of Science Education
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.133-143
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze elementary school teachers' perception on application of STEAM education. For this study, a survey was administered to 80 primary teachers. The result showed as follows: First, even though, elementary school teachers have known about the meaning and aims of the STEAM education in detail, they often took a neutral attitude toward the actual teaching method. In addition, they take a negative attitude toward having the gathering. Second, only a few elementary school teachers prepared and used the teaching materials related to the STEAM education in class and teach students the concept based on the STEAM education. Only a few elementary school teachers said that they used the developed modules. However, the demand, developing the modules, was extremely high. This result means that the easy and available modules should be developed to establish the STEAM education. Third, only a few elementary school teachers applied the subject, activity, and estimation related to the STEAM education in actual class. Forth, even though, after applying, there much be the positive affects, most elementary school teachers could not recognize the positive affects. At the same time, elementary school teachers suggested the curriculum should be reorganized for students to connect between the results of the STEAM education and the contents of the textbook, and the easy and available program should be developed and spread, also. The attitude of elementary school teachers toward the application of the STEAM education was normally negative. Therefore, it is needed to include more STEAM related contents in the science textbooks and to develop various STEAM education materials and circulate them as well as to establish adequate teaching and assessment methods for STEAM education.

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